A Look at Texas High School Basketball Recruiting

by jc25 on Jan 27, 2012 10:15 AM CST in Texas Longhorns and Other Basketball

There's a lot of concern and consternation about Texas basketball these days, partly due to recruiting unrest. The argument comes down to:

Rick Barnes should stop recruiting 5* mercenaries that just leave after one year! I don't get any emotional attachment to them, and they're not winning!

-OR-

Rick Barnes should keep recruiting 5* talents, just make sure they stay for more than one year! I want to get emotionally attached and also win!

-AND/OR-

Rick Barnes isn't recruiting nearly enough 5* kids! We clearly need more stars! And why can't he follow the Texas football philosophy? Get all the best players from Texas high schools!

On the third point, I was intrigued. I broke down Texas high school basketballers by class, in an effort to show why Texas high school has suddenly become exceptionally important. I've listed high schoolers ranked in the top 25 in their class (generally the cut-off point for 5*). The '13-'14 rankings are via Scout (led by Evan Daniels, it's my favorite scouting service, even if its platform sucks). Rankings from '12 and below are RSCI aggregated rankings.

2014

#7 Emmanuel Mudiay (Arlington Grace Prep...Kabongo’s cousin)
#9 Justin Jackson (Houston HCYA)
#15 Justise Winslow (Houston St. John's...dad played for Phi Slamma Jamma)

2013

#3 Julius Randle (Plano Prestonwood Christian...Blake B calls him the most important UT recruit since KD and I agree)
#4 Andrew Harrison (Fort Bend Travis)
#6 Aaron Harrison (Fort Bend Travis)
#10 Keith Frazier (Dallas Kimball)
#19 Jordan Mickey (Arlington Grace Prep)
#20 Matt Jones (DeSoto / Duke)

2012

#5 Isaiah Austin (Arlington Grace Prep / Baylor)
#9 Marcus Smart (Flower Mound Marcus / OK St)
#11 Cameron Ridley (Fort Bend Bush / "Texas")
#17 Rasheed Sulaimon (Houston Strake Jesuit / Duke)
#26 Danuel House (Missouri City Hightower / Houston)

The aggregated amount of talent coming from Texas high school basketball over the next three years is on par with Saturday Night Live's early '90s cast. Over the next three years, there are 14 total prospects in the top 25 (and I know I'm cheating a bit since House is right outside at 26). If you scroll down the list, you'll notice that is equal to the sum of 2005 to 2011 combined.

I'll give you three reasons why Texas fans should be concerned going forward, and it's three shades of blue. Duke, North Carolina, and Kentucky. These "blue blood" programs have recently taken a vested interest in the great state of Texas. Coach K's last Texas pull was Daniel Ewing in '01 (TJ Ford's HS teammate), yet he now has commitments from Sulaimon in '12 and Jones in '13, and also possibly leads in Randle's recruitment.

The Tar Heels were on John Henson ('09) early, but have traditionally stayed out of Texas. Now, they're also on the heels of Randle, and have interest in Frazier ('13) and Jackson ('14) as well. And while Kentucky hasn't landed a Texas prospect for as long as I can remember, they should be considered favorites for the Harrison twins ('13), and recently Grace Prep teammates Mickey ('13) and Mudiay ('14) gave glowing reviews about Calipari's player-friendly system.

In Scipio's thread, I commented that Durant's commitment was a game-changer when it came to recruiting. Historically, Barnes' approach to roster-filling hasn't changed. ATJ (after TJ Ford, when Texas basketball really got established), Barnes has looked within state borders for his role players (Connor Atchley > AJ Abrams > Dexter Pittman > J'Covan Brown > This year's freshmen).

I'd argue that it's the star approach that has changed. Prior to Durant, the Longhorns' big-timers were Texas-bred. After Durant, Texas went (inter)national, getting Jordan Hamilton from California and tapping into the Canadian/Findlay Prep timeline. That's not counting misses like DeAndre Daniels (California) or Devin Ebanks (Connecticut).

During that time period ('07-'11), there wasn't much to crow about in Texas. But in 2012, it appears that Texas high school basketball is approaching a paradigm shift to top tier talent. And that has many questioning whether Barnes still has the ability to pull alpha dog status within state borders.

Whether he does or not is a future state issue, but now let's look into the past.

2011

#8 LeBryan Nash (Dallas Lincoln / OK St)

Horns: The last of the Canadians? Texas headlined the class with Myck Kabongo (Findlay Prep via Canada) and complemented him with a trio of Texans: Sheldon McClellan (Houston Bellaire), Julien Lewis (Galveston La Marque), and Jonathan Holmes (San Antonio Antonian). Nash was offered, but Texas really wanted DeAndre Daniels from California, who decommitted from the Horns and eventually chose UConn. After Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph left, Texas picked up two players released from their LOIs: Jaylen Bond (PA / Pitt) and Sterling Gibbs (NJ / Maryland).

State: Nash has disappointed so far, but he's opened the door for a Stillwater re-emergence along with the football program. Head coach Travis Ford will add another 5* recruit, Marcus Smart, in 2012. From a depth perspective, three of the six recruits ranked in the 25-100 range picked Texas. D'Angelo Harrison (Sugar Land Dulles / St. John's) looks like he'll become a potent college scorer.

2010

#8 Perry Jones (Duncanville / Baylor)
#20 Tony Mitchell (Dallas Pinkston / Missouri – Did not qualify; North Texas)

Horns: This was the Tristan Thompson/Cory Joseph class (Findlay Prep via Canada). Joseph was a late replacement for Avery Bradley, who unexpectedly declared for the NBA Draft.

State: McDonald's All-American Jones jumped aboard the Scott Drew Recruiting Express train that has kept chugging with Quincy Miller ('11) and Isaiah Austin ('12). Mitchell was always a grade risk. The Horns pretty much avoided Texas like the plague this year, with Phil Pressey (Dallas Episcopal) the most notable non-5* recruit; he followed his brother to Missouri.

2009

#5 John Henson (Round Rock / UNC)

Horns: Texas had little shot at Henson, who committed in his junior year. The Horns did get Jordan Hamilton (CA), Bradley (Findlay Prep via WA) and Shawn Williams (Duncanville) in the fall and effectively closed recruiting. Bradley was Texas' first Findlay Prep commit; Hamilton likely envisioned himself following in the footsteps of Durant. If I recall correctly, Texas was also hot after Tommy Mason-Griffin (Houston Madison / Oklahoma), which would have been a far worse alternative to Bradley.

State: Most of the in-state talent like Ray Penn (Fort Bend Bush / OK St) fizzled, but this was the class that torpedoed Oklahoma. Mason-Griffin, along with Keith Gallon (VA), earned ex-HC Jeff Capel his walking papers. Capel migrated as an assistant to Duke...where he's now ardently recruiting...the state of Texas. Great.

2008

#13 Willie Warren (Ft. Worth North Crowley / Oklahoma)
#25 J’Mison Morgan (Dallas South Oak Cliff / UCLA)

Horns: Texas got J'Covan Brown (Port Arthur McAllen) in the fall, then went into panic mode when it became clear he wouldn't qualify. I remember Devin Ebanks (CT / West Virginia) and Wes Witherspoon (GA / Memphis) being targeted, but the Horns were lucky to come away with anyone. That turned out to be Varez Ward (AL), since transferred to Auburn.

State: It was basically a lost year for Longhorn in-state recruiting. Baylor ended up with a decent haul, getting Anthony Jones (Houston Yates), Quincy Acy (Mesquite Horn), and eventually J'Mison Morgan (who transferred from UCLA). Say what you want about Scott Drew, but he's done a good job of unearthing talent from Texas high schools to basically overtake Texas A&M's position within the conference.

2007

#14 Anthony Randolph (Dallas Woodrow Wilson / LSU)
#15 DeAndre Jordan (Houston Christian Life / Texas A&M)
#25 Gary Johnson (Houston Aldine / Texas)

Horns: Barnes must have watched extensive Sydmill Harris footage this year, because Rick ended up with international fever, plucking Doge Balbay and Alexis Wangmene. Clint Chapman (OR) was also in this class, and the trio's development (or lack thereof) is one of the major reasons for current fan frustration. Don't forget eventual Horn Jai Lucas (Houston Bellaire), who transferred from Florida and fit right into a disappointing class. Johnson turned out to be the bright spot, overcoming a heart condition to have a solid career in Austin.

State: Randolph and Jordan have both made millions in the NBA based on size and potential without actual positive productivity. '07 was one of the few years that Barnes didn't recruit his role players in-state, and in retrospect, it was a correct decision. It just so happened his out-of-staters didn't pan out.

2006

#11 Darrell Arthur (Dallas South Oak Cliff / Kansas)
#15 Damion James (Nacogdoches / Texas)

Horns: I'm still amazed that Texas was able to land Kevin Durant (MD), the class' first commit and class pied piper. I don't know that DJ Augustin (Louisiana native, but due to Hurricane Katrina played ball at Fort Bend Hightower) or Damion James (Oklahoma commit who chose Texas after the Sampson scandal) play at Texas if Durant wasn't in this class. Harrison Smith (Houston Jones) was the only miss, as Dexter Pittman (Rosenberg Terry) and Justin Mason (Amarillo Palo Duro) had productive, if also frustrating, careers in Austin.

State: It was actually a really good year in Texas. This was Billy Gillispie's last signed class at Texas A&M, and he landed Donald Sloan (Seagoville), Derrick Roland (Seagoville) and Bryan Davis (Grand Prairie). It was also a good year for big men, with Hasheem Thabeet (Cypress Community / UConn) and Josh Lomers (Boerne / Baylor) representing the class. Arizona head coach Lute Olson, long a fixture in Texas, pulled his last good Lone Star commit in Nic Wise (Kingwood).

2005

#12 CJ Miles (Dallas Skyline / Texas…then NBA)
#16 Gerald Green (Houston Gulf Shores / NBA)
#20 Byron Eaton (Dallas Lincoln / OK St)

Horns: This was the last class where high schoolers could jump directly to the NBA, and Texas got burned by Miles. AJ Abrams (Round Rock McNeil) was identified early, but Barnes made a major mistake by going the quick-fix JuCo route with JD Lewis (Amarillo / Midland CC) and Craig Winder (MD / Cecil CC).

State: Miles and Green haven't exactly lit the NBA world on fire. It's a shame that Texas didn't further pursue Eaton, a great college player. Eaton also went to the same HS as Nash ('11), which might have contributed to Nash's decision.

2004

#12 LaMarcus Aldridge (Seagoville / Texas)
#17 Jawann McClellan (Houston Milby / Arizona…Sheldon’s cousin)
#19 Daniel Gibson (Houston Jones / Texas)

Horns: Barnes reaped the benefits of the TJ Ford era with this stellar class. He also landed Mike Williams (AL), Dion Dowell (Texas City), and Connor Atchley (Houston Clear Lake) in a class that was supposed to win a National Championship. The best they did was the Elite 8, while a lesser heralded class--Florida's--ended up cutting down the nets twice.

State: The Longhorns basically cleaned up in-state this year, though enemy of the 40 Acres Joseph Jones (Normangee / Texas A&M) was a less heralded recruit in the class.

2003

#4 Ndudi Ebi (Houston Westbury Christian / NBA)
#5 Kendrick Perkins (Beaumont Ozen / NBA)

Horns: Texas missed on Ebi (Arizona), Perkins (Memphis), and Cartier Martin (Houston Nimitz / K-State), but stumbled into PJ Tucker (NC) and picked up transfer Kenny Taylor (Sugar Land Willowridge) as a Baylor transfer from the Dave Bliss fallout. Does one year from Edgar Moreno (Lon Morris CC) merit a mention?

State: The NBA Draft stuck its grubby paws into Texas' top tier again. But LeBron James (OH) blew both Texans away...and then some.

2002

#5 Chris Bosh (Dallas Lincoln / GA Tech)
#12 Bracey Wright (The Colony / Indiana)
#15 Daniel Horton (Cedar Hill / Michigan)
#22 Brad Buckman (Austin Westlake / Texas)
#25 Bryan Hopkins (Dallas Lincoln / SMU)

Horns: Texas targeted local product Buckman, its second consecutive McDonald's All-American recruit after Ford. Californian Kenton Paulino turned out to be an underrated pickup.

State: This was the state's deepest class in the '00s. Amazingly, the two best college Texans weren't as heralded in high school as the list above: Deron Williams (The Colony / Illinois) and Ike Diogu (Garland / Arizona St).

2001

#17 TJ Ford (Sugar Land Willowridge / Texas)

Horns: The originator.

State: It was another stacked class. Ford's Willowridge program featured Ewing (Duke) and Taylor (Baylor), but this class had Keith Langford (Ft. Worth North Crowley / Kansas), Jason Maxiell (Carollton Smith / Cincinnati), and Lawrence Roberts (Houston Lamar / Baylor). The best of them all--but also the lowest rated--turned out to be Emeka Okafor (Houston Bellaire), who won a championship with UConn and was drafted #2 overall.

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how did Emeka Okafor fly under the radar?

by kemit on Jan 27, 2012 10:21 AM CST reply actions

and good write up. I’ve actually developed more respect for Barnes from reading it and getting past my own myopic view of things. Shows that Barnes does tinker with his system and goes after OOS players which he feels can lead his complimentary Texas players and he’s been pretty successful at it (Thank God Gallon didn’t wind up here). I know I have a tendency of looking at a body of work and being dismissive with a did they win? Barnes really has built a program. He’s had depth a few times but until he gets a ring he’s not allowed to lose with the same top recruits as a Coach K who’s had talented classes that didn’t meet expectations.

Question: If Randall goes to Duke does he play multiple years whereas if he attends Texas, is he one and done? If he’s one and done, it’d be difficult to ask a kid to adjust to the speed of the game, the offense and it’s players, develop stamina and maintain intensity and then lead the team to a championship in one season. We’re seeing the same from Kabongo who I bet will be dictating next year rather than adjusting this year.

by kemit on Jan 27, 2012 10:45 AM CST reply actions

Great stuff. Thanks.

by HtownHacker on Jan 27, 2012 11:04 AM CST reply actions

Thanks for the writeup, JC. Great stuff. Could you elaborate on the issues with Cam Ridley’s commitment. I don’t know a lot about the AAU circuit other than that it’s shady. People talking money and the AAU as forces to keep Ridley away. They saying another school will pay up? Or is there an AAU circuit that pays until NBA age ready? Thanks.

by Burnt Orange Wookiee on Jan 27, 2012 11:06 AM CST reply actions

Thanks for the write up. Your work is always thorough, detailed and coherently presented. greatly appreciated.

For me, I think the questions that are most appropriate for the early draft entrees:

could an early draft entry be expected?
did we properly expect it?
did we properly account for it?

For better or for worse, I think we have a mixed bag of answers for all of these questions. While early entry can sometimes be disappointing for fans, sometimes it’s a no-brainer (Ford/Durant), sometimes it’s the right thing to do (Thompson/Aldridge), sometimes it’s a bit of a head scratcher (Bradley/Joseph) and sometimes it’s extremely questionable (Evans). Quite frankly, we really don’t have that many that fall in the latter category.

And quite frankly, it’s tough to criticize guys like Bradley and Joseph when they end up getting drafted in the 1st round. It seems the biggest problem Texas fans have is with Barnes not convincing guys to stick around when they know they could go in the first round. While the emotional response is understandable, for better or for worse, it turns into a credibility issue for Barnes on the recruiting trail.

Personally, I think we are best served to follow the “paradigm shift” model previously outlined here. Now to just see if it falls into place…

by txsa on Jan 27, 2012 11:39 AM CST reply actions

Great stuff.

A quick added point to clarify another dynamic in basketball recruiting: any elite player that ends up at Baylor or Oklahoma State is not a player we could have signed.

by Scipio Tex on Jan 27, 2012 12:18 PM CST reply actions

Doesn’t look good going forward. I think locking down your home state is always a priority whether football or basketball. Some years won’t be so great but maintaining relationships with high school coaches can only help. Maybe if the coaches like us enough, they could balance the negative AAU coach effect that we have.

by Monahorns on Jan 27, 2012 1:00 PM CST reply actions

High school coaches have almost zero influence over elite recruits unless they’re named Bob Hurley.

AAU runs the show.

by Scipio Tex on Jan 27, 2012 1:41 PM CST reply actions

kemit: Okafor wasn’t exactly under the radar—he was still a top 100 recruit. Bellaire is primarily known as a baseball and academic-oriented school, but Okafor played on the same team as John Lucas III, who went to OK State. Academics were important to Okafor, and I believe he graduated in 3 years with a business degree. Randle is a one-and-done in my opinion, regardless of school. Duke doesn’t keep ’em all: see Kyrie Irving.

BOW: AAU is a seedy backwater filled with the all-singing, all-dancing crap of the world. The barriers to entry are ridiculously low, and procuring the right assets just takes a little bit of grease and smooth talking. Everything I’ve heard on Ridley is that he wants to go to UT, and his HS coach is a friend of the program (Ronnie Courtney, TJ Ford’s old coach at Willowridge). You can connect the dots from there.

txsa: Declaring for the NBA Draft is about monetary optimization. If you can get a first-round guarantee and can’t improve your draft stock in college, you jump. I don’t fault Bradley or Joseph for their decisions. They weren’t going to suddenly develop point guard skills at UT. Winning a championship or enjoying college is important to some, but it’s ultimately a lost year in NPV terms (especially since the big dollars come in contracts 2 and 3, which are pushed back a year), and more opportunity for talent evaluators to question your potential.

Scip: Ro Russell of Grassroots Canada is now the HC at Christian Faith in North Carolina, so I assume he’s got some pull. I wonder how much say Mike Peck has. At the very least, he’s a heck of a coach.

by jc25 on Jan 27, 2012 2:03 PM CST reply actions

Excellent article.

The 2002 DFW basketball class is pretty fascinating: not only were there two future All-NBA players in the same city in Bosh and Williams, they weren’t even the biggest stars on their own high school teams.

The basketball talent pool in Texas has exploded in the last decade. However, it’s important to note that DFW (and I imagine Houston is simialr) isn’t a college basketball market; elite recruits grow up rooting for NBA teams and have no real interest/allegiance to Big 12 basketball. If you discount the Big 12 network, which plays games on random unaffiliated local channels, UT basketball games don’t come on in Dallas anymore than UNC, Duke or Kentucky ones.

It’s a very different dynamic from football, especially b/c the best players spend April-July playing all over the country on AAU teams. HS coaches have no real say in these players decisions, especially in comparison to AAU coaches who identify them in middle school and often become surrogate family members.

Here’s a pretty thorough look from SI’s Luke Winn on the number of Top 100 prospects who transfer high schools:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/web/COM1189093/1/index.htm

Scipio’s dead on about Baylor and Oklahoma State. It’s fairly well known in Dallas basketball circles what those two programs are all about.

by tjarks on Jan 27, 2012 2:43 PM CST reply actions

LaBryan Nash and Byron Eaton are half brothers in addition to both attending Dallas Lincoln and OSU and as alluded to above, neither were realisic options to end up in Austin.

by ronald on Jan 27, 2012 3:03 PM CST reply actions

JC: completely agree on Bradley & Joseph. With Bradley attaining the rankings that he did as he finished his prep career, his leaving wasn’t too shocking…despite what was perceived as an underwhelming season, he still seemed to have the unlocked offensive potential to go along with his impressive defensive abilities and youth. a return may have actually been a roll of the dice.

Joseph’s declaration was certainly more of a surprise…it seemed to me he was announcing only because Thompson and JHam had. after all, he had been advertised as a “4 year player” prior to his arrival, didn’t really have the measurables and, theoretically, didn’t really have a position to play. I was shocked to hear his name called before the end of the first round. but alas, clearly the guarantee was there.

Of all the things a Texas fan could criticize Barnes for, I don’t think recruiting should be particularly high on the list.

by txsa on Jan 27, 2012 4:14 PM CST reply actions

kemit: To expand on what jc said about Okafor, he did not sign in the fall and had listed (IIRC) Georgia Tech, Stanford, Rice and A&M. He was interested in engineering at the time. Don’t know if he passed on signing in the fall, or if the schools slow-played him because he wasn’t a surefire stud.

If it was the latter, it backfired, because he came on at the end of the season. Because he was one of the few uncommitted big men with any sort of talent, coaches flocked to Houston to try to sign him and convinced him of his NBA future (thereby sidelining the plans for the engineering degree). There was a meeting with Bob Knight (new at Tech). In a matter of days, Connecticut came out of nowhere to get the signature. The rest, as they say, is history.

Unfortunately, this exact scenario is going to happen to Cameron Ridley. Even though he is committed to Texas, coaches from everywhere are going to come in and try to make it happen. He is going to be swamped. This is the one thing, assuming Texas stays in it, that Texas fans should be concerned about.

by Bob in Houston on Jan 27, 2012 4:32 PM CST reply actions

Scip, yeah I know. I was just thinking if there were ways to curtail that. Maybe all is lost. But if it was ever going to work it would have to be done on a local scale.

by Monahorns on Jan 27, 2012 5:12 PM CST reply actions

Very interesting study, JC.

From what you show, by my count Texas ended up with 6/21 of the in state recruits in the Top 25 who didn’t go straight to the NBA from 2001-2011. So a tad less than 30%. I don’t know if I should think that is high or low. Over that same time period, 11 of those players played their college ball outside of the state of Texas. 4 played at other schools in the state of Texas (although one of those intended to go out of state).

Is this a higher than expected loss of players to other states? How does it compare with the fates of 5* football players, for example? (I am actually asking; this isn’t meant to be rhetorical.) And over the period of your study, Texas has taken more top 25 guys that the rest of the Texas schools combined, so it isn’t like Barnes is loosing many recruits to in state rivals, but a decent number have left Texas.

by Reggieball on Jan 27, 2012 8:02 PM CST reply actions

BIH,
Rudy Gay was a lock for Maryland and UConn came out of nowhere and grabbed him. I remember hearing about it on the John Thompson show or one of the ESPN talk shows. Calhoun is shady as fk.

“First was Rudy Gay. Gay, a five star, top 10 kind of player out of HS, was very high on Maryland both early and late in the process. He would’ve been a huge get for the program. A lot of signs were pointing to Maryland actually nabbing him. But then, Calhoun organized a “scrimmage” of the Huskies against an AAU team made up mostly of former college and JUCO players. Calhoun paid $22,000 to the Cecil Kirk Athletic Council, who “owned” that team. They also owned Gay’s AAU team. Days later, Gay committed to UConn. Coincidence? Fat chance.

Granted, at the time, that was legal. This, however, was the one thing that made the NCAA make it illegal. It was so incredibly blatant that the NCAA couldn’t just stand by and let it happen again – quite an achievement given the NCAA’s track record when it comes to this stuff. Of course, they decided not to enforce the rule retroactively."

Here’s a short but interesting read on it as well as another player: http://www.testudotimes.com/2009/3/26/811593/the-uconn-recruiting-viola

by kemit on Jan 27, 2012 8:21 PM CST reply actions

Agree on Calhoun. When DeAndre Daniels wound up there, I knew that everyone involved was happy.

by Bob in Houston on Jan 27, 2012 9:09 PM CST reply actions

Calhoun is a pretty interesting character.

As the third season of the Wire begins, the police have a major problem. Stringer Bell, their long-time nemesis, has become "the bank." He runs the legitimate businesses that launder the money his lieutenants make selling drugs; his money finances packages on the street that he never sees. He’s completely insulated from the underbelly of the game. And at that point, "there’s not much a working police can do to stick a charge on him." **

Does it matter? I don’t think so. Does anyone think Rudy Gay regrets developing his game at UConn now that he’s making $80 million plus in the NBA? There’s no guarantee his career progresses the same way if he goes to a school like Maryland, where Gary Williams famously had a problem getting along with “prima donna” AAU players.

Calhoun is a hell of a X’s and O’s coach and his teams almost always maximize their talent.

The Ryan Boatright controversy, which is really some of the NCAA’s most morally reprehensible behavior yet, has clearly affected them this year. A billion-dollar institution is going to arbitrarily demand the SINGLE mother of FOUR kids to pay back $4,500 (!!) to a charity or they won’t let her oldest son, her entire family’s best chance to break out of a cycle of poverty that goes back generations, have the chance to develop his skills to one day play in the NBA? Boatright is a 5’10 160 PG; he really can’t afford to be anywhere else but the NCAA for the next three years.

by tjarks on Jan 30, 2012 4:00 AM CST reply actions