The Week That Will Be (11.16.2013)

Pat-a-cake, pat-a-cake, bakers man... - Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

TURNUPDKR, With Caution.

Last Week: 4-2 ATS 2-4 SU

For the Year: 33-31-2 (.516) ATS 52-14 (.788) SU

What we learned last week:

  • Well, Oregon, when you quack, er, talk a big game, you have to play a big game. Not show the world your underwear and start crying on the sideline.
  • While Johnny Manziel might have played his last game at Kyle Field, we can only hope the train wreck goes on...however we need more Uncle Fitch.
  • Alabama is the best team in the country...oh, yeah, we already knew that, and I don't expect that to change anytime soon.
  • So it takes more than a sleek long sleeve t-shirt, 3-day stubble and Ray-Bans to keep winning football games? Got it.
  • In a year where Baylor is putting up ridiculous offensive numbers, it is impressive to hold Oklahoma to 237 total yards - and not allow a touchdown until late in the third quarter.
  • Major Applewhite must have spied that prop bet at the Las Vegas Hilton, "Over/Under that Texas will run it off the right guard on 1st down against WVU" and bet his life savings on the over.

Anyhow...

These are some strange times on the 40 Acres, as Texas has the least exciting 6 game winning streak in team history, judging by the fact that the Longhorns play a HUGE conference game against a ranked opponent in the next to last home football game for 9 months...and there are still a few thousand tickets left at the box office.

Ouch.

There are several reasons for that, of course, with the least of which being the Burlesque Tribute to 007 going on this very weekend and the most of which being a sense that we're all waiting for the other shoe to drop.

If I didn't lose you to Google in search of the 007 festival, you know the conversation that you've had with your friends several times since Dallas:

"What do you think happens if we win out and win the Big 12?"

"Haha, I don't think we have to worry about that."

"Yeah, I know."

So, by that very theorem, one of these next three, or two of the next three, or if you are a real son of a bitch the next three will be a loss.

Most would give you a better chance of signing up for Obamacare online than Texas has of winning the next three.

Okay, okay, this isn't very TURNUPDKR of you, Mr. Writer, but the Longhorns have an all-star unit on crutches and walking boots on the sidelines, the quarterback likes to throw a Dirk Nowitzki-like fadeaway pass, and the offensive coordinator is gunning for his own banner airplane flying around the stadium by Thanksgiving.

Now, all that being said, it is okay to treat these next three with some optimism. Oklahoma State gave up 28 points in a quarter to UTSA. Texas Tech went and hid in the shed with Craig James's kid. And Baylor...well I can't really come up with a way to win that one.

A 2-1 finish would make the Longhorns 9-3, with the possibility of (all together now) a 10 WIN SEASON with a win over Arizona State in the Steve Patterson Bowl in San Antonio. Seeing as how many of us walked out of the stadium after Ole Miss convinced that Iowa State and every other team on the schedule was going to hand us a big fat L, it wouldn't be a horrible season.

But would it be enough for Mack Brown? Therein lies the $64,000 question. Or million dollar question. Whatever the inflation rate is these days. We shall see what happens there either way.

So yes, in the meantime, Turn Up DKR. Get excited, all you can ask for is to be approaching Thanksgiving and being in control of your own destiny in the conference race. These seniors are giving themselves one hell of a send-off.

And, if the seemingly inevitable other shoe drops, try not to be too smarmy when telling your work buddies, "I told you so."

On to the games...

Florida @ South Carolina -13.5:

Florida is a mess. They have lost four straight, and need to win here or against Florida State to avoid their first losing season since the Carter administration. The injuries are piling up, with Tyler Murphy the latest to get the "game-time" decision handle.

South Carolina, meanwhile, is coming off a bye week with two league victories before that.

South Carolina 27 Florida 10

ATS - South Carolina

SU - South Carolina

Georgia @ Auburn -3.5:

Aaron Murray passed Danny Wuerffel last week for all-time passing touchdowns by a SEC quarterback. But the match-up to watch here is Georgia's run defense against Auburn's running attack.

The Tigers scored 55 points last week against Tennessee while only passing for 35 yards. They've rushed for at least 222 yards in every game but Mississippi State, and have rushed for at least 300 yards in five of their ten games thus far. Georgia, meanwhile, is only giving up 126 rushing yards a game.

Auburn 31 Georgia 27

ATS - Auburn

SU - Auburn

Stanford -4 @ USC:

Gone are the days of USC being a 40-point favorite in this game, but Stanford had better watch it here, USC has won three straight and finds itself in position to capture the South division if things fall just right.

This could be a defensive battle, but I'm not sure I trust Cody Kessler to do it against a good defense.

Stanford 24 USC 17

ATS - Stanford

SU - Stanford

TCU @ Kansas State -10.5:

Yeah. When this is one of the better games of the Big 12 weekend, you know the conference is down.

Kansas State 24 TCU 21

ATS - TCU

SU - Kansas State

Texas Tech vs. Baylor -27:

Baylor faces their first adversity of the season with Tevin Reese out and Lache Seastrunk most likely out as well. I don't think it will matter against a Texas Tech team in a free fall.

Baylor 55 Texas Tech 31

ATS - Baylor

SU - Baylor

Oklahoma State -3 @ Texas:

Oklahoma State is trying to win its third straight game in Austin, and they'll try to do it behind a balanced offense attack that sees them averaging 265 yards through the air and 169 on the ground.

Quarterback has been a problem for the Cowboys this season, but Clint Chelf seems to have grabbed a hold of the position, tallying nearly 500 yards and 5 touchdowns to 2 interceptions against Texas Tech and Kansas.

But don't sleep on this defense. The Cowboys are 20th in scoring defense in the country. Sixth in third down defense. Ninth in turnovers created. Ninth in pass efficiency defense.

Oh, and opponents this season are 0-for-29 on third down this year of seven yards or more.

If you remember a few days ago and all the third and longs against West Virginia, go ahead and grab a beer and digest that.

And, by the way, if you are lucky enough to score, when you kick-off OSU is 12th nationally in kick returns (and 11th in punt returns). Against a Texas special teams unit that has had some concerns.

This is the meat of the schedule, and while there are obstacles created by injuries, now is not the time to leave anything on the table.

That goes to players and coaches.

I just don't think Texas is good enough (or rather healthy enough) to come away with a victory here. OSU is hitting on all cylinders, while Texas has feasted on far lesser competition.

Oklahoma State 37 Texas 28

ATS - Oklahoma State

SU - Oklahoma State

For entertainment purposes only.  Save your money for commemorative Kyle Field bat dung.

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