Last Week: 3-3 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 36-34-2 (.514) ($160) ATS 57-15 (.792) SU
What we learned last week:
• With their win over Florida, South Carolina is a Missouri loss (@ Ole Miss, Texas A&M) from going to the Atlanta for the SEC championship game.
• And on the other side of the ledger, Auburn will meet Alabama on November 30th with the winner representing the SEC West. It is the first time that the Iron Bowl has held that weight since the SEC started division play 21 years ago.
• I might have missed it, but I didn’t see Stanford pulling any bits in the press conference after their loss to USC. Probably should have saved the props for when you can beat Utah and USC, smart guys.
• The preseason Big 12 pick by many, TCU will not go to a bowl for the first time since 2004. And Gary Patterson’s name drops off the radar.
• Baylor racks up 63 points and 673 yards without their best wideout (Tevin Reese) and running back (Lache Seastrunk). Oh boy.
• Texas, meanwhile, is without their best quarterback (David Ash) and running back (Jonathan Gray), and racks up 13 points and 389 yards. Geesh.
Well, those of us that weren’t Pollyanna knew that was coming at some point, we just hoped that it would at least be an entertaining game where the Longhorns just fell short at the end.
If you watched that show on Saturday, you know that Texas didn’t even belong on the same field as Oklahoma State.
And things will be much worse in Waco in two weeks.
How does this happen? How is it that it is possible to get better recruits to Waco, Texas and Stillwater, Oklahoma than Austin, Texas? Why is that we hear all off-season about how much better the offense is going to be, yet almighty Texas with the wonderboy offensive coordinator has only managed to score as much as 40 points twice this season?
You can give me excuses about injuries at quarterback, and linebacker, and amongst the defensive line, but isn’t this Texas, where 4 star recruits are the back-ups?
All we heard in July and August was how good this team is going to be, that this season will be culmination of three years of hard work. We didn’t believe it. Then we heard about how we can still win the Big 12 despite the two out of conference losses. We didn’t believe it. Then we heard that we were the Big12 front-runner after beating Oklahoma. We didn’t believe it.
And now we’re a lesser program than Baylor and Oklahoma State.
I don’t believe it.
The writing is on the wall here. Texas has too many resources, too much winning tradition, too easy of a recruiting hotbed to be second-rate in the conference that they were supposed to own when the realignment chaos settled.
Joe Jamail might not believe it, but the emperor here is done.
And if he isn’t, well, we might long for the glory days of being third in the conference.
On to the games...
Arizona State -2.5 @ UCLA:
A win here gives Arizona State the Pac 12 South title, while UCLA can claim that title with a win here and a win against USC.
Arizona likes to play defense against Colorado, Washington State, Utah and Oregon State (giving up 17.5 ppg), but doesn’t like to play defense against Wisconsin, Stanford, USC, Notre Dame and Washington (34.8 ppg).
You decide which group UCLA belongs in.
UCLA 38 Arizona State 30
ATS – UCLA
SU – UCLA
Missouri -3 @ Mississippi:
This will be a tough one for Missouri, as Ole Miss has defeated LSU and lost to Auburn and Texas A&M by a combined 11 points.
But Mizzou will be up for the challenge. Their defense (20th in scoring) has been underrated all year, they don’t turn the ball over (2nd in the country in turnover margin)…and oh yeah, they have a pretty decent offense themselves and get their starting quarterback back.
Missouri 34 Mississippi 28
ATS – Missouri
SU – Missouri
Oregon -20.5 @ Arizona:
Oregon was left for dead after their loss to Stanford, but they were gifted a situation where all they have to do is win out to win the Pac12 North.
Arizona lost to Washington State in Tucson last week. Back up the truck.
Oregon 48 Arizona 24
ATS – Oregon
SU – Oregon
Texas A&M @ LSU -4.5:
Last year in College Station the Tigers flustered Johnny Manziel, allowing a relatively low 276 yards passing and forcing him into 3 interceptions. All while only allowing 136 yards rushing.
LSU doesn’t have the defense that they had last year, but the Aggies have the defense that they have this year. It should be a good one, but LSU holds on.
LSU 38 Texas A&M 35
ATS – Texas A&M
SU – LSU
Oklahoma @ Kansas State: -4.5
Kansas State has righted a three-game losing streak by subsequently winning four in a row, earning themselves bowl eligibility in a season that saw them lose to North Dakota State. Not bad.
Oklahoma will be without star running back Damien Williams, but I’m not sure that they are good enough to win a game like this with him, anyhow.
Kansas State 31 Oklahoma 28
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Kansas State
Baylor -9 @ Oklahoma State:
Now this should be a good one.
Oklahoma State is playing very well during this 6 game winning streak, averaging 41 points per game and only giving up 18. But Baylor is Baylor
As odd as that still is to hear.
Baylor is ravaged by injury, adding LT Spencer Drango to the growing injured list. There is a chance that Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin could return, but as we learned last week, it doesn’t matter.
The Cowboys will give them a fight, but I don’t think they quite have the offense if this one breaks out into a shootout.
Baylor 48 Oklahoma State 40
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Baylor
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl tickets.