Last Week: 5-1- ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 44-38-2 (.537) ($160) ATS 64-20 (.762) SU
What we learned last week:
• Urban Meyer almost pulls a John Cooper and probability says that he will play for a national championship. Wonderful.
• Johnny Manziel’s Heisman candidacy went the way of Rob Ford’s re-election campaign after only accounting for 216 total yards and a touchdown.
• Will Muschamp promises to ditch the pro-style offense and run an up-tempo offense next season in Gainesville…that sounds awfully familiar.
• Southern Mississippi now has a longer winning streak than Alabama.
• We learned that Gary Patterson needs a cigarette and a bath. Stat.
• And finally, we learned that Texas Tech’s best offensive weapon is their punter, who would have been sacked by the Texas defensive line as well if given the chance.
The final game at 63-year old Floyd Casey Stadium in Waco will be played this Saturday afternoon, otherwise known as "THE CASE", a nickname that took Baylor fans 63 years to formulate.
But better late than never.
It is a stadium that legendary Baylor coach Grant Teaff has said that the first time he saw it he "wanted to throw up", which is ironic seeing has how the last game that Grant Teaff coached in that stadium made me want to throw up.
The year was 1992. As stated it was Grant Teaff’s final home game as Baylor’s head coach after a 20-year stint, and it was John Mackovic’s first year as head coach on the 40 Acres.
Texas was middling along at 6-3, while Baylor brought an equally mediocre 5-5 record into the game. What followed was a hatchet job unequaled to this day in my eyes, as Rogers Redding’s crew proceeded to call the worst game I have ever seen in my life.
Obvious Texas interceptions were called incomplete. Baylor was given the ball like a Christmas present. Phantom penalties rained down under the overcast skies, and the linesmen must have had the same craft beer cocktail that I had on Thanksgiving night as they spotted the ball coming in from the sidelines. The Longhorns racked up 129 penalty yards.
If I didn’t know any better I could have sworn I saw a Mexican announcer table set up in the north end-zone and a stack of steel chairs at the ready.
Texas lost the game 21-20*.
That game is the reason I never minded beating them 65-0 in the golden years.
No, I won’t shed any tears for Floyd-Casey Stadium, sorry, THE CASE, they can tear it down and build a shrine to RGIII and J.J. Joe for all I care.
The beer at George’s will taste the same no matter the venue.
On to the games...
Florida State -28.5 vs. Duke:
The good news for Duke: They have 10 victories for the first time in school history. They likely have an invitation to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl even if they should lose this game. And basketball season started weeks ago.
The bad news for Duke: In the last 7 games, Florida State has outscored their opponent 439 to 72.
Florida State 44 Duke 17
ATS – Duke
SU – Florida State
Arizona State -3 vs. Stanford:
Both of these teams have impressive resumes, with Arizona State beating Wisconsin, USC, Washington, Utah and UCLA, and Stanford defeating Washington, UCLA, Oregon, Notre Dame…and Arizona State.
The Sun Devils have had their most trouble with physical teams, and I’m not sure there is a more physical team in the country (or at least this side of Alabama) than Stanford.
Stanford 27 Arizona State 23
ATS – Stanford
SU – Stanford
Ohio State -5.5 vs. Michigan State:
Lost in all of this whoopla of Auburn vs. Ohio State is…ah yes, 11-1 Michigan State, who enters this game having given up 6 points or less in 5 of their last 6 ballgames.
Now Ohio State is no Illinois or Purdue, but the Spartans only give up 64 rushing yards per game and did "hold" the Buckeyes to 383 total yards in Ohio State’s 17-16 win last year in East Lansing.
I’m not sure Michigan State has enough offensively to win this game, but they should be able to keep it tight…and you never know once that happens.
Ohio State 24 Michigan State 20
ATS – Michigan State
SU – Ohio State
Missouri vs. Auburn -2:
This is another "oh yeah there is another team" match-up, but here the "other team" might very well be the better team. Missouri has the rush defense (14th in the country) to contain Auburn’s rushing attack, they don’t turn the ball over (5th) and get after the quarterback (tied for 6th).
Meanwhile, can Auburn possibly have enough juice left after two straight draining games?
Missouri 34 Auburn 27
ATS – Missouri
SU – Missouri
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State -10:
The problem with Texas relying on Oklahoma to defeat Oklahoma State here is…what is Oklahoma’s best win this season? A two-touchdown victory against Notre Dame where they were handed 14 points right off the bat? A win over Texas Tech, who lost five in a row to end their regular season? Or a fairly dominant win over Kansas State in Manhattan?
The good news for them is that that game was their most recent, so if they found something in the use of Trevor Knight then they should have some momentum.
But it won’t be enough to beat a focused Oklahoma State squad.
Oklahoma State 41 Oklahoma 28
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State
Texas @ Baylor -15:
Baylor has come back to Earth a bit in recent weeks, losing to Oklahoma State before struggling against a 4-7 TCU team last Saturday. Add to that some shaky quarters against Oklahoma and Texas Tech and you have to wonder if Texas just might have a chance in this one.
The Bears had only 370 total yards against the Horned Frogs, scoring twice on defense and getting the ball practically at the goal line after a TCU fumble for another touchdown. Despite all of that, TCU was throwing the ball into the end zone for a go ahead touchdown with less than a minute left to win the game before throwing an interception.
Texas has the defense to do what TCU and Oklahoma State did, playing the receivers on the line and taking your chances that Baylor won’t be able to throw over you with Tevin Reese gone for the year. And Texas has what TCU and Oklahoma State lacks, a pass rush that ranks 4th in the country in sacks.
The Baylor defense has been vulnerable to the pass lately, giving up 288 yards to Pachall and 440 to Clint Chelf the week prior. I’ll leave it up to you to determine if you are comfortable with Case McCoy being able to match that effort in what looks to be terrible weather conditions.
This is a game that Texas can win and would easily be their best win of the season and their best since Nebraska in 2010. But this offense has to be almost perfect…and I’m not confident in their ability to do that.
Baylor 34 Texas 28
ATS – Texas
SU – Baylor
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for pieces of the Floyd Casey tarp.