Be careful what you wish for…A review of Coaching Hires from 2002
I have been as guilty as anyone in getting frustrated with Mack Brown over the course of his 10-year tenure. I’ve even called for his head at several points. I want to say right now that I think those of you who assume we have to resort to a wine-sipping John Mackovic have lost your minds, but it does require some substantial thought when looking to make a change.
I have no idea how I landed another job after Texas.
I’ll go ahead and say that I think sticking with Mack Brown, warts and all, is the right decision for this program. And I think it will continue to be the right decision for the next 2-3 seasons at the very least. I’d argue it won’t matter after that as I think Mack will ride off into the sunset at that point or very near there.
Irrespective, I decided to look back at the hires of the off-season after the 2002 season. It gives each of those coaches five full seasons and a chance to get their own players into the system.
The winter of 2002 was filled with interesting coaching hires at a number of schools including UCLA, Houston, Baylor, Kentucky, and Texas A&M. Twelve schools turned over the reigns of their football programs that winter and started this season with that same coach.
In descending order of compensation (tip of the hat to CoachesHotSeat.com):
Dennis Franchione - Texas A&M
Guy Morriss – Baylor (reportedly fired last week)
Rich Brooks – Kentucky
*Art Briles – Houston
Mike Riley – Oregon State
*Karl Dorrell - UCLA
*Bill Doba – Washington State
Joe Glenn – Wyoming
*David Elson – Western Kentucky
*Brady Hoke – Ball State
*Gregg Brandon – Bowling Green
Charlie Weatherbie – Louisiana Monroe
* First time Division 1 Head Coach
Six of the twelve had been college head coaches previously. Five of the six have been abysmal. Mike Riley is the lone exception of this group and ironically enough, this was his second go-round with the Beavers. Riley coached the 97 and 98 seasons at Oregon State before jetting off to the NFL. After being fired by the Chargers, he returned for the 2003 season in Corvalis. He is 43-38 all time for the Beavers.
No wonder he came back
The other five experienced head coaches have achieved lower winning percentages at their current program than their overall winning percentage as a head coach. Even more amazingly, those five experienced head coaches also achieved lower winning percentages than that school’s all time winning percentage (prior to their arrival). Not so amazingly, Morriss was reportedly fired last week while Fran and Weatherbie are expected to be fired at the end of the year.
Six were first time head coaches. Dorrell and Doba are expected to be fired in the next month. Ball State’s Brady Hoke has also lowered the bar with his winning percentage. No one seems to know or care if he is going to be fired. Briles and Brandon have exceeded the historical winning percentage. Western Kentucky did not have prior Division 1 history but Elson’s .643 winning percentage has to be considered a success.
There were 7 other coaches hired that off-season that did not make it to the start of the 2007 season.They were:
Mike Shula (Alabama) – fired after year 4 with a 26-23 record
John Thompson (Eastern Carolina) – fired after two seasons at 3-20
John L Smith (Michigan State) – fired after year 4 after going 22-26
Keith Gilbertson (Washington) – fired after 7-16 in two seasons
Bobby Petrino (Louisville) – became Atlanta Falcons HC after going 41-6 in four seasons at Lousville and was courted by Auburn, LSU, and other NFL teams
Steve Kragthorpe (Tulsa) – should be considered a success since he moved up to Louisville after going 29-22 in four seasons
Urban Meyer (Utah) – parlayed two great years at Utah (22-2) into the Florida job after also being courted by Notre Dame, a $2M annual raise, and a MNC
What does all this mean?
19 hires that off-season resulted in twelve complete failures, four guys who have been successful and are still at their school, and three other guys who were successful enough to parlay it into a better job. Oof. That’s gonna leave a mark.
What does that mean for Texas?
Texas will never be a stepping stone job to another college program so we don’t need to worry about the Meyer/Kragthorpe thing happening to us. Texas, like all programs, would be susceptible to a stud stepping up to the NFL level a la Petrino. As I said before, I don’t think it matters.
10-2 isn’t so bad after all.
What does it mean for SMU, Baylor, and Texas A&M among others?
Choose wisely.
November 13, 2007 at 11:45 am
i know few who want brown out. i think brown needs new coordinators because the problem with the program isn’t recruiting or talent, it’s the way they are coached. that said, we are 10-2 but i think we’d get our asses handed to us in a different conference to the east.
November 13, 2007 at 12:25 pm
How many of those guys were first time head coaches?
November 13, 2007 at 12:44 pm
From the outside looking in, you would be crazy to let Mack go. The way fans view success is incredibly subjective. Fans of a consistent 10-win team with a MNC under their belts in this decade EXPECT certain things (righfully so, perhaps). You guys EXPECT conference titles and EXPECT to at least be mentioned in the MNC discussion. You are unhappy if neither of these things pan out (a la ‘06). But at least you can look a few years down the road at the things that will remain consistent and continue to expect success.
Compare that to our fan base. We can only HOPE for results. An MNC for us isn’t totally out of the question or anything (at least we aren’t Hawaii or Boise State), but we can’t realistically expect it. I absolutely HOPE to see us win the conference in the next few years, but it is blind hope as nobody really knows what our future looks like (on the field or the sidelines). It’s been 8 seasons since we even sniffed a Big 12 title.
I guess the moral of the story is step back and get some perspective. Plentiful resources and rabid fans don’t guarantee success (look at us). You guys, on the other hand, are still neck and neck with the land-thieves as the class of the conference.
November 13, 2007 at 1:01 pm
So you’re already saying 10-2, huh? Don’t be sure about that, you still have to play against my Aggies next week. Our Spirit Bracelets make us as one, we will hold the rope, and my quarterback just said he would DIE for me at a press conference a few weeks ago. I’m going to run him at you 40 times on zone reads just to see if he really meant it. Oh, yes, this is true.
When you’re up by 4 with 3 seconds left, and we have 4th and goal from your 2 yard line, you’ll know who you are up against. You’ll know because I’ll smirk and kick a fucking field goal.
November 13, 2007 at 1:08 pm
If he re-hires Tim Brewster, once he is fired from Minnesota, to actually fight for recruits again then Mack could stay as long as he wants.
November 13, 2007 at 1:31 pm
Mack doesn’t really have to fight for recruits, KCHorn, since about 75% of all of his offers are accepted — mostly on the spot.
November 13, 2007 at 1:48 pm
Sometimes it’s better to fight for a Vince Young rather than accept the commitment of a Billy Don Malone.
November 13, 2007 at 1:48 pm
As previously stated, Mack is perfect for our program. It’s his choice of assistants that needs to be tweaked. Come on Major……..
November 13, 2007 at 1:58 pm
None of those schools came close to having the kind of talent pool available to them to choose from that we would.
(I’m not saying we need to make a change, nor that we would need to be very careful, but we would have a deeper group to select from.)
November 13, 2007 at 2:04 pm
Sometimes it’s better to fight for a Vince Young rather than accept the commitment of a Billy Don Malone.
Only “sometimes???”
November 13, 2007 at 2:15 pm
Bragg:
Great substantive post. I might quibble with you about Rich Brooks at Kentucky, but there’s no denying his slow start. The last two years have been impressive though.
I don’t want Mack to go anywhere. I would like to see him upgrade S&C, DC and a couple of position coaches.
November 13, 2007 at 2:32 pm
SRR is right. Outside of Alabama, and they were on probation, none of those other schools have the resources or status that UT enjoys. It is hard to put your finger on what makes this ship spring a leak at times. We have a DB coach who has tutored two Thorpe award winners but we continually get torched (see this year and last). We have by all accounts is one of the best O-line coaches in the country but with at least three future pros playing on that line (and a future starting rookie running back) last year we couldn’t run the ball effectively. Is it scheme, coaching, motivation? I think Mack deserves all the credit in the world for winning a ton of games but he has to figure out why with all these high profile coaches and players he has had only one championship season of any kind in 25 years.
November 13, 2007 at 2:38 pm
Anyone else notice Scipio’s tacit endorsement of Greg Davis? I want to lie down and die.
November 13, 2007 at 2:44 pm
We don’t wear fucking spirit bracelets…
Other than that, you pretty much nailed it.
November 13, 2007 at 2:49 pm
Lazlo:
Greg Davis isn’t going anywhere. Mack’s BFF. You have to accept that he’s part of the package deal.
November 13, 2007 at 3:14 pm
South ‘06 - would you accept “Stephen McGee Memorial 12-Link Chain” instead?
November 13, 2007 at 6:46 pm
Scipio, which assistants should be on the chopping block besides Akina who is a disaster of a DC? McWhorter has done a good job and is much better than Nunez and I have been very impressed with our midget possession receivers who actually block downfield so we have Kennedy to thank for that.
November 13, 2007 at 7:57 pm
How about tying Coach Brown’s compensation package to achieving certain benchmarks? Say winning conference more than once every 10 years; followed by making the phrase “good kids who graduate” actually mean something?
November 14, 2007 at 6:55 am
Billy Malone has had a pretty good career at ACU
ACU Sports
November 14, 2007 at 8:06 am
“Greg Davis isn’t going anywhere. Mack’s BFF. You have to accept that he’s part of the package deal.”
-thanks for the reminder. now my otherwise decent day is shitty.
November 14, 2007 at 9:00 am
Every school in the Big 12 wishes they were Texas. UT has a great program, best recruits, best budget, great tradition, (and even great academics!). How can you all be satisfied with the levels of success under Brown? Please note, preseason polls almost always have UT in the top 10 if not top 5, so expectation even around the country are high.
November 14, 2007 at 9:12 am
PokeFan,
Every school in the Big 12 wishes they were Texas. UT has a great program, best recruits, best budget, great tradition, (and even great academics!).
That’s very kind of you to say.
And, don’t be so modest. Almost every school in the greater Tulsa metroplex (with the possible exception of Tulsa Univ.) wishes they were Oklahoma State.
November 14, 2007 at 9:39 am
Ooh, damnation by faint praise. But don’t forget Total NCAA Division I championships (all sports) UT 39, OSU 48.
November 14, 2007 at 12:33 pm
Just a little addendum to PokeFan:
34 of those 48 were wrestling (not that I have anything against ‘reslin), UT’s four football MNC are not included the 39 because it is the only D-1 sport that does not have a play off.
November 14, 2007 at 3:30 pm
Ahh, but we treat them all the same right? Or should we point out more than half (22 of 39) of Texas’ were in women’s sports or that OSU’s equestrian title didn’t count.
November 14, 2007 at 3:39 pm
8straight: I admire you for not claiming the 1914, 68, 77 and 81 NC titles. That puts you above the average Bama fan.
November 14, 2007 at 4:16 pm
I was afraid you might be a little sensitive about all those ‘reslin titles. Now you are comparing football and equestrian titles? How country club of you!
November 14, 2007 at 4:42 pm
Nope, proud of “‘reslin” just as I’m sure your proud of the 16 swimming and diving titles. Not sure we have a pool. And since the golf coach is now the universally hated AD, the country comment was just plain mean.
November 14, 2007 at 4:48 pm
Wow, I had a zinger and didn’t know it. Sorry. Hope the AD thing works out for you.
November 14, 2007 at 7:34 pm
“Ooh, damnation by faint praise. But don’t forget Total NCAA Division I championships (all sports) UT 39, OSU 48.”
So I’m leaving a bar on Washington Street in Stillwater the weekend of the game, and I’ll be damned if I don’t look up and see an autographed banner tacked to the ceiling, praising the national champion *livestock judging* team.
Does that count in the total of 48?
November 14, 2007 at 9:15 pm
aggy is still bitter about letting that one slip away in the last round of judging, Drew. they must have just run out of time
November 15, 2007 at 3:23 am
Drew: If we could count “livestock judging”, soil judging and other aggie sports, we would be kicking UCLA’s ass in total championships. But alas most of the country doesn’t appreciate these manely sports.
Sergio: Still bitter about letting one slip away? One? ONE? There is no doubt that UT is in the Pokes’ head. Glad we can serve as the Horns’ yearly confidence builder.
November 15, 2007 at 8:58 am
As a frustrated golfer I have always been amazed at OSU’s continued success on the links. The Pokes have done a nice job of having a variety of good teams down through the years. When you look at our Aggies, two women’s softball championships and the 1939 MNC football, you see that tradition may not always mean winning.
November 15, 2007 at 11:59 am
Wresting and golf have been high priorities with OSU for as long as I have been associated with the University. Baseball seems to have fallen in priority (and I really hate that, being a big fan), Basketball is important, and football, ahh OSU football. Never have so many contributed so little to the advancement of an athletic department.
It is difficult for schools not named Texas, OU, Bama, Florida or California something, to prioritize their athletics. OSU has done a good job all things considered, although they have not paid much attention to women’s sports until the last decade or so.
However if you view prioritization of both overall athletics programs and academics Texas is clearly in an elite group with USC, UCLA and maybe tOSU, and Florida slightly lower (IMHO).
FInal thought: UT Baseball, now that is a dominant program. I hope UT fans appreciate their good fortune in having the single best college baseball program in the land.
November 16, 2007 at 11:12 am
I/we do. UT has the best baseball fans in the country to go along with the best coach. As disappointing as the last two years have been I think most Orangebloods believe that Augie will have us back in Omaha in 2008.
November 18, 2007 at 9:16 pm
Stop it! Stop it!!
I can’t stand the thought of one of you guys breaking your own sternums.
Now that Callahan and Carr are gone, Brown is the undisputed king of pissing away talent.