Fantasy Football Ticker: A Look at Running Backs
I’ll start off by saying I have a fucking overwhelmingly gay love for Fantasy Football. Alright, I said it. With the season quickly approaching, I find it useful to start a thread that allows the cumulative knowledge of the football brain trust that is Barking Carnival to share their thoughts. I’ve always been a big believer in going heavy on RBs in the early rounds. I just got lucky last year to be playing two guys with the Romo/TO and Brady/Moss combo during their meltdown weeks in both my leagues. Maybe there’s something to be said for that. The point being, I’m softening a little bit on this policy. Brett Favre saved my ass last season and I can’t expect to get that lucky again.
I’m going with the best available player policy this season with the goal in mind of having 3 starters who rank in the top 5 in production at their respective positions after the first 3 rounds, but I won’t go past the 2nd round without a RB. Assuming I don’t land in the top 5 for draft day and have a shot at LT, Peterson, Westbrook or Addai, then I think I’ll go QB, RB, & WR. I just don’t think I can make it out of the 4th round without two RBs. I’ll probably chicken out and go RB, QB, RB. I still believe you can find productive WRs on the waiver wire. The only WR I would have the balls to take over a RB in the 3rd round would have to be named Moss, Owens, Wayne, Andre Johnson and maybe Braylon Edwards, but his lack of separation scares me at times. Same with guys like Fitzgerald, Houshmanzedah, and Burress. I would be tickled to death with Marques Colston and Brandon Marshall of Denver as my starters and they might be around in the 4th and 5th rounds. Chad Johnson and Steve Smith are another pair that scare the ever living shit out of me equally whether I’m playing against them or they’re on my team. One thing I know is for certain, FF Championships are won on draft day. Struggle here, and you’ll be spending your season combing the waiver wire pondering whether you should start DeAngelo Williams over DeShaun Foster’s hamstring as Bill Simmons would say. Here’s a few things going through my head as the season approaches. Some are obvious, but some might be useful. You’ll more than likely disagree with me, so feel free to add your own advice. I’m assuming starting lineups consisting of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 Flex Player. I’ll cover some running backs today.
Running Back
- I’m not sure what’s going to happen in Green Bay with this whole Brett Favre thing, and frankly, I want to suffocate myself with my sweaty, stinky flip flop every time I hear about it. Just like you. However, from a Fantasy Perspective, one guy who will benefit from this whole buffoonery will be Ryan Grant. He averaged 14 fps/game (Fantasy Points per game) last year after taking over the starting position for the last 12 games. You can win a title with numbers like that and I might take him over some more proven backs with a few miles on them. I’ve done a little research over the years and a back’s prime years are from Year 2 to Year 6, which makes sense. Obviously, you don’t take Adrian Peterson over LT, but you might want to look at taking Grant over guys like Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willis McGahee. These guys all have either health risks, shitty offensive lines, or running styles that are conducive to injuries. I got a steal on Portis last year, but he makes me nervous as shit. Gore gets hurts hurt and has OL issues. Same goes for LJ on the OL, and I’ve just never been overwhelmed with McGahee. Grant has a good OL, not many miles on him, and the Packers will lean on him hard if he continues to be productive, while Aaron Rodgers gets settled in. Plus, the Packers have a decent defense, so they probably won’t be playing from too far behind for the most part. I might be a little skeptical of the Packers receiving corps, but Grant is a safe play in the late 1st round. Don’t be surprised when he’s a top 5 back with regards to fps/game at the end of the season. I’m skeptical of Steven Jackson and Marshawn Lynch as well.
- I sure as fuck hope I don’t get in a position where I have to draft Reggie Bush as one of my first two starters….again.
- Speaking of, here’s a list of running backs I don’t want to have to draft in certain rounds:
Frank Gore in Round 1: He plays on a shitty team with a shitty OL and they’re always playing from behind. Plus, he’s an injury risk. I would be comfortable with him as a #2 back, though. SF’s defense is getting better.
Maurice Jones-Drew and Reggie Bush in Round 2: I hate having utility guys as even my #2 back. I think Jones-Drew will be a #1 back some day, but not until Fred Taylor dies. Any of those guys are well suited as flex players or depth for bye weeks of your starters. I wouldn’t take Jones-Drew or Bush before round 3.
Brandon Jacobs or Laurence Maroney in Round 2: Jacobs can’t stay healthy, New England throws the ball all the time and splits up carries. I’m fine with them as flex players starting in the mid 3rd round.
- Three guys I will follow with interest throughout the preseason are Ronnie Brown, Michael Turner (now in Atlanta), and Ernest Graham in Tampa. If Brown is healthy and plays well in the preseason with a somewhat re-tooled OL, he’s a 1st round guy, yet currently has a low third round grade. I might grab him in the 2nd, if he appears healthy and grab Ricky Williams as insurance in later rounds. Somebody is going to run the ball in Miami because there’s no one to throw it. Turner is a guy, who has 1st round talent, but is stuck on a horrible team. They’ve got him as a late 3rd round pick now, and that’s probably sufficient, but I’ll watch him blowup in the preseason and then kick myself in the groin when I take him in the 2nd round. Make of that what you like. Graham went on a 6 game stretch from week 9 to week 15 after taking over as the starter where he averaged just under 18 fps/game. That’s LT type numbers. The only question mark here is how Jon Gruden utilizes Cadillac Williams after returning from injury. My personal thoughts from a Fantasy perspective are that Graham is a much better NFL back than Williams and Gruden should cut him just so we don’t have to worry about him stealing stats from Graham. What I think will happen is that Williams will become a 3rd down back. Plus, Gruden’s so moody and his “doghouse” routine is tiring. His mancrush on Cadillac from the Senior Bowl will intoxicate his decision making.
- I think I’m going to steer clear of Pittsburgh backs. I had Willie Parker last year in a league and he finished with over 1300 yards and 2 fucking TDs. Plus, they drafted Mendenhall. Only if one of these guys were to get hurt would I feel the other is worth more than starting as a flex player. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mendenhall ends up with more fantasy points than Parker due to short yardage touchdowns. Here’s the way to play this. Draft Mendenhall one round too early in the 5th to fuck your friend who drafted Parker in round 3. Then, start him as your flex player, watch him put up stats like 6 carries for 19 yards, and 2 TDs, and wait for Parker to go down. You now have the option of upgrading your #2 RB position or bending your friend with Parker over even further in a trade.
- I think it’s now time to stay the fuck away from Rudi Johnson unless as a flex player in round 5 or later.
- Now, the big question. Where do we draft Darren McFadden? This is no where near the situation that Adrian Peterson had, so don’t take him before the 5th round even though he carries an early 3rd round grade at this point. I think Chester Taylor is a better back than Justin Fargas, but I still see Oakland giving him the ball a lot. That may not make sense at first, but it’s somewhat relevant. Plus, Oakland’s offense resembles that of a Pop Warner team. Buyer beware. I actually think Jonathan Stewart might be the best rookie to pick this year, but Carolina is more fucked up than a carnie at this point.
I’ve got to run, so I’ll share more thoughts on QBs, WRs, and TEs later.
August 3, 2008 at 6:24 pm
Draft Ricky Williams before Ronnie Brown. He won’t be 100% till game 4-7. Tuna is going to ride Ricky till they find a starting QB.
August 3, 2008 at 6:26 pm
I’m taking Ricky Williams with my first pick.
August 3, 2008 at 6:35 pm
As long as we got your check, that’s fine with me.
August 3, 2008 at 6:50 pm
This may come back to haunt me later, but I am staying away from Larry Johnson like he has the plague.
August 3, 2008 at 7:56 pm
Good call, KC’s line has been trash since Shields retired and Roaf left.
August 3, 2008 at 7:59 pm
The thing I really like about Grant is that he was pretty consistent about finding the end zone in every game. He also displayed big game potential with his 200 yard, 3 TD performance at the end of the year.
August 3, 2008 at 9:00 pm
I don’t play fantasy football, so I know nothing about the grades for certain players, etc.
I’m just wondering what Anquan Boldin’s grade is as a WR?
August 4, 2008 at 5:48 am
In a league where recievers get points per catch, getting 3 quality WRs was the key to victory. Our league champ had TJ Housh, Braylon Eds, and TO, with no quality RBs.
The PPC leagues make WRs as important (if not more) than RBs
August 4, 2008 at 9:17 am
ded:
Some good thoughts, although I would quibble with a “best player available” policy. Brady’s psycho season excepted, there’s little difference in statistical value between an elite QB and two solid mid-round guys that you play matchup games with. Doing that at RB is much trickier.
I always go RB, RB and often RB again in my first three rounds because the WR position is such a commodity and because I consistently play in leagues where guys drafting the “best player available” take Carson Palmer over Brian Westbrook.
Show me your scheme, your OL, and your QB, and random dude who runs a 4.45 40 can get you 75 catches for 1100 yards and 8 TDs. There’s always WR quality on the waiver wire too.
Other random thoughts:
I actually think Maurice Jones-Drew has a huge year and that this is the year where Fred Taylor is finally relegated to a clear secondary role.
I expect Marion Barber to rush for 16 TDs this year.
I wouldn’t draft McFadden until late.
gonzo:
I think points per catch is exceedingly gay.
August 4, 2008 at 11:00 am
The only reason I’m debating my strategy is because of the now popular platoon system among RBs. I’ll probably go RB/RB/QB/RB/WR/WR/TE like I always do. A lot of it will depend on my draft position. I always do my best when I draft in that 10-12 spot, where you get to take two good RBs back-to-back. If I end up in the 8-12 spot, I’ll go with my usual routine. At 1-7, I’m strongly trying to talk myself into going RB/QB/WR/RB/RB/WR/TE. I think there’s going to be some good value this year at the RB position with guys like Jonathan Stewart, Matt Forte, or Kevin Smith. I’m guessing Stewart is the best play here. There’s only 4 guys I would take over Barber: LT, Peterson, Westbrook and Addai. Portis is grossly underrated as a goalline runner as well. Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, and Willis McGahee are the first round guys I would be nervous about having to draft. Here’s my picks:
1. LT
2. Westbrook
3. Addai
4. Peterson (he’s never played a full season at any level of football, I think he even missed a game his FR year at OU)
5. Portis
6. Barber
7. Grant
8. S. Jackson
9. McGahee
10. Gore
11. Lynch
12. J. Lewis
Some guys fail to figure in things like the Rams and 49ers suck and will be playing from behind, thus throwing the ball, when assessing the RB position. I’m staying away from platoon teams like Jacksonville and New Orleans unless for the flex position.
August 4, 2008 at 11:13 am
I’m probably undervaluing the Johnsons (Larry and Rudi), but I don’t trust either one of their OLs or teams in general.
August 4, 2008 at 11:38 am
One thought here, and then I got to run. I would like to get an opinion on what Barkers think about drafting RB/RB/QB/QB/RB/WR/WR/TE. My strategy here would be to land two #1 QBs for trade value. Since WRs are so up and down (I took Torry Holt in the 3rd Rd last year), waiting until a week or 3 into the season and see which #1 WRs are blowing up, then trading one of my QBs for a #1 WR. I think the right QBs would have to be on the board. Like Romo/Brees or something like that. If it plays out that way, it might be the safest thing to do.
August 4, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Of all the top rookie RBs, none really have a decent line to run behind except maybe Torain in Denver. Carolina, KC, Oakland, and Chicago have four of the worst OLs in the NFL.
I wouldn’t touch a skill position player on any of these teams in the first four rounds. Not only are the lines terrible but so are the QBs.
Earnest Graham should get a lot of goal line looks for Tampa. He’s a solid 2 this year. Cleveland’s offense should be humming again, giving Jamal Lewis another 20+ carries inside the 5 yard line (led NFL last year).
Unless you’re spending an early pick on Brady/Manning, it usually pays off to pick up a Hasselbeck/Big Ben/D. Andersen in the 4th/5th/6th and fill out depth with top flight RBs and WRs in the first 3-4 rounds.
Dedfischer,
Regarding your last question about taking QBs back to back in rounds 3-4, I can see the temptation if the ideal scenario played out but you’re ovethinking things. Odds are nil that the Romo/Brees would actually play out and for every waiver wire gem there are always five busts.
And if somehow they do last to rounds 3-4, I want in your draft next year.
August 4, 2008 at 1:21 pm
I usually come out of the first 4 rounds with 3 RBs and 1 WR, then take a QB in the 5th. I won one league and lost in the championship in our ringer league, so I guess I ought to just keep doing what I’m doing. I didn’t really have that good of a team in either league, and my WR play killed me all season. I’ve got mixed emotions about Portis. He does two things, produce and fumble. He’ll run for 60 yards on 22 carries and a touchdown against the Rams defense, so you bench him in favor of Willie Parker when he faces a good defense, and he blows them up while Willie Parker is on the sidelines with an icepack on his leg at 14:07 in the 1st quarter. The morale of the story, I’m done with Willie Parker. I’ll take Portis in a heartbeat, but it’s brutal sticking with him at times.
August 4, 2008 at 2:26 pm
BTW, good stuff Vasherized.
We should just start a Barking Carnival Fantasy Bible with a list of rules:
Rule #1 (per Vasherized) - Don’t draft skill players on teams who have shitty offenses. There’s a reason they are shitty. That’s how dedfischer finished dead last in 2006 by drafting Willis McGahee and Cadillac Williams.
Seriously, it sounds stupid, but Vasherized is right. It’s things like that, which allow fantasy owners to see busts like Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson a mile away.
The next rule up for proposal would be Scipio’s “You can get a productive receiver anywhere.”
I used to believe that, but not anymore. However, last season for example, the 10th highest scoring RB was Frank Gore with 183 points. The 10th ranked WR was Plaxico Burress with 174 points. (We’re assuming you don’t get points for receptions, which we have already determined is gay. As a matter of fact, that’s rule number 2.
Rule #2 (per Scipio Tex) - Leagues that allow points per catch are exceedingly gay.
Ok, back to the point which is you might be better off taking Randy Moss/Terrell Owens/Braylon Edwards/Reggie Wayne (all scored over 200 points last year) in Round 2 over Willie Parker’s 153 points? I’m not saying I’ve changed my mind, but I have definitely softened my position on the matter.
August 4, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Pro leagues are gay. I only play College Fantasy football — they are quite studly.
August 4, 2008 at 8:03 pm
I’m not sure if this plays into anyone’s evaluation of Mojo, but Pocket Hercules is getting paid something stupid like $600k this year. Or last I checked, I enjoy looking stupid on the internetz. Mojo has saved my season two years running, and I plan on grabbing him if the resident Jacksonville homer doesn’t reach for him with his first pick.
August 5, 2008 at 5:07 am
Until I personally see Fred Taylor’s cold corpse, I have a hard time seeing Mojo (Jones-Drew?) or Taylor as anything better than low end #2s or flex players. I had Taylor last year, and that guy still has some wheels on him. They’ll keep using him.
August 5, 2008 at 6:13 am
At what point does drafting Cedric Benson win me a fantasy league?
August 5, 2008 at 7:21 am
Scip is right about the waiver wire, and it’s not just WRs although that is typically where you can strike gold because of how many are carried on NFL rosters.
I’d say the success of your season is 60% draft, 20% waiver wire and 20% coaching. knowing whom to start and when can be the difference in a 5 point loss or a 20 point win.
Of course it’s a total fucking crapshoot who is going to do what on any given week. The more you take advantage of strong matchups on your roster, i.e. Braylon Edwards against Buffalo or Detroit’s secondary is probably a good bet, the better your odds of maximizing potential scoring. Hoping DeAngelo Williams finally breaks out because he’s due for a big game and Deshaun Foster is such a pussy is more than likely going to get you 20 yards and 2 pts come Sunday.
We are definitely seeing a shift towards taking QBs and WRs earlier than ever. But how many of these people that didn’t have Moss/Brady won their league last year? I had Manning/Wayne/Barber/Gates and they all shit the bed in the semis.
This year I kept Adrian Peterson as a keeper with my 9th pick so I’m taking a strong look at either another top RB or Moss/TO/Edwards with the 12th pick. But no way I’d consider a QB there. If Romo or Brees is there at 28 … maybe, but I’m still inclined to wait until rounds 4-6.
Also people take TE’s way too early. Chambers is going to take some catches away from Gates this year. Gonzo is like 45 years old and would still rather be in the NBA. Solja boy made it through his first healthy season last year.
Load up on RBs and WRs until its slim pickins and be happy with Owen Daniels, Todd Heap, Dallas Clark or Tony Scheffler in the 10th round.
Same with DST. Don’t follow the temptation to waste a pick in the 6th round on the Steelers/Bears/Vikings/Chargers/Cowboys/Jags/Pats. One of them will be available in the 10th-12th. A top 10 D will also always be available on the waiver wire come week 4.
Loading up on young studs, crafty veterans, and sleepers at RB/WR gives you depth if one of your guys go down, and more importantly trade bait when somebody else’s stud goes down.
Here endeth the fantasy gospel according to V.
Now watch me go 3-9.
August 5, 2008 at 9:22 am
Excellent, I always concur with your thoughts on TE and DST. I never go for one until around the 8th or 9th round, usually a TE and then take two DST in the later rounds that play against a bunch of shitty offenses. I’ve platooned QBs in the past this way that play against a lot of weak defenses.
I’m working on something regarding WRs that I’ll have up at some point. It’s maybe a way to find some statistical consistencies for WR versus a Steve Smith or Chad Johnson, who get 80% of their point totals all in about 6 games and then put up goose eggs the rest of the time. I’ve got kind of factor built in that docks a WR based on the number of times he produced less than 60 yards receiving and no TDs.
Moss still ranks number one, but Reggie Wayne is in 2nd by a slim margin over Braylon Edwards & Larry Fitzgerald. TO drops down to the 5 spot. I tried to use our bad offense rule and dropped guys like Torry Holt, Roddy White, Steve Smith, Derrick Mason and Dwayne Bowe. I also took into account a player’s injury history.
The most interesting case is Andre Johnson, who I’ve got ranked as the 6th WR. His numbers resoundingly place him in the #2 spot between Moss and Wayne. When Johnson plays, he produces, but he’s only played 1 complete season in the last three years.
The other guy that jumps up high is Greg Jennings from Green Bay. His production for 13 games last year plants him firmly as a Top 5 WR, but I docked him a few spots for the unsettled QB situation and he landed at #12.
Brandon Marshall is a consistent producer as well, but you’ll be without him 3 games to start the season, so I dropped him some.
The absolute best value for where he’s currently ranked is Bobby Engram at Seattle. That kind of surprised me, but he fits the profile of having a good QB, good OL, and shitty defensive competition. Engram had 2 games where he put up complete duds whereas Plaxico Burress and Steve Smith had 7 apiece, and Roy Williams had 5.
For Beergut, I’ve got Anquan Boldin as the 10th rated WR just behind Chad Johnson and just ahead of Wes Welker. The numbers don’t reveal anything that surprises you too much, but it does show why you should take Edwards over TO or Houshmanzadeh over Chad Johnson. I think it will help me more in the later rounds, when trying to pick sleepers.
August 5, 2008 at 9:53 am
The Seattle situation brings up an interesting case in Julius Jones. Anyone got any thoughts on how he might do? In a way, he looks like a tremendous sleeper based on our criteria.
August 5, 2008 at 1:18 pm
The problem is he is an average running back. Put a better RB in that situation and he’d thrive. I expect nothing but mediocrity from Jones. Burleson/Engram are good value picks at WR though.
August 10, 2008 at 10:43 am
Moving up this week:
Chris Johnson, RB Titans - one thing is for sure, Fisher will run the ball and whichever Titans RB gets the start will be worth drafting in the 3rd to 5th round. For now, LenDale White still holds this spot and will probably get the goalline carries regardless, but Johnson’s 66 yard TD in limited action is hard to overlook. Keep watching the preseason and follow Johnson to see how much action he will get. I wouldn’t be scared to use a 10th round pick right now, but he might move up to a 7th or 8th.
Robert Meachem, WR Saints - The Saints meet all the requirements for taking a productive WR. Obviously, Colston is worth a 3rd or 4th round pick. However, Meachem displayed why they spent a 1st round pick on him and Brees is great at spreading the ball around. I would be willing to take Meachem in the later rounds over guys like Joey Galloway or Drew Bennett just on potential. He looked outstanding.
Roddy White, WR Falcons - It’s amazing that White was the #15 ranked WR last season with an abyssmal line and Chris Redmon at QB. I think that speaks volumes to the talent that White has. Matt Ryan actually resembled an NFL QB and he knew exactly who to look for as a first option. White will probably still be on the board in the 7th or 8th rounds, and if Ryan continues to play well, take White as a #3 WR and watch him put up high end #2 type numbers with the possibility of low end #1 numbers.
August 10, 2008 at 10:50 am
I have a soft spot in my heart for Roddy White as he won 2 critical games for me last season, one being in the playoffs. He was one of my sleeper picks last year and ended up produces better than guys like Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin and Roy Williams. Buyer beware of the Falcons team, but the good news is they’ll be playing from behind a lot, so he’ll get a ton of opportunities as he’s their only real weapon.
August 11, 2008 at 11:42 am
There went my value WR of the draft. I jinxed him. Bobby Engram has cracked a bone in his shoulder and will miss 6-8 weeks. Follow his progress and pick him up off the waiver wire later, if you’re having trouble.
August 11, 2008 at 11:45 am
This should increase Nate Burleson’s stock, though.
August 12, 2008 at 7:45 pm
I’ll take Chris Chambers.
(h/t SbB)
August 18, 2008 at 11:12 am
Bobby Engram was my late round super value WR too. Sucks.
August 18, 2008 at 11:26 am
I’m going to try and pick up a #1 WR in the 3rd round (the best one still on the board), and then pick up Brandon Marshall in the 5th. He may be gone by then, but I’m thinking he’ll slip due to the suspension. May not get that lucky. My plan would then be to pick up Nate Burleson and Roddy White as serviceable #2s until Marshall gets back on the field. I’ll keep my eye on Engram and try to snag him off the waiver wire when he comes back.
August 18, 2008 at 11:26 am
I’m back. I was playing press coverage on Usain Bolt for a little while.