The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly - Colorado

The season started for real last night after four games that felt like an NFL pre-season.  This was true not just for the good guys (that would be the Texas Longhorns) but for the entire Big 12 Football Conference.

The results of the games were no surprise at all.  The only thing that came close was the score of the Kansas/Iowa State game, in which Iowa State held a 20-0 halftime lead.

This is a conference in which you bet the over, and I don’t really care what the over/under happens to be.  Yesterday’s results speak for themselves:  Texas/Colorado - Over.  OSU/A&M - Over.  Oklahoma/Baylor - Over.  Kansas/Iowa State - Over.  Missouri/Nebraska - Over.  Kansas State/Texas Tech - Over. 

On Scipio’s betting thread Thursday, I predicted if you took the over in all six Big 12 games, you’d win four of them.  I underestimated by two.

This conference plays offense, and not much defense at all.  Oklahoma and Texas have very respectable, maybe even very good, defenses, but that doesn’t appear to be true of anyone else.  If A&M doesn’t commit a rash of turnovers, the Aggies, who are horrible on offense, would have put up more than 30 on OSU.  The Cowboys would have put up over 50 on A&M in any event.  Watching the offenses in the Missouri/Nebraska game was like watching a pinball machine on steroids in fast motion.  The second half of Kansas/Iowa State played out as if the defenses were limited to 9 men on the field.  Kansas State and Tech?  Fuhgettaboutit.

No doubt Vegas oddsmakers set those 60+ point over/under lines in several of these games thinking they were pretty good estimations of what would actually happen.  These folks just don’t understand what happens when teams like Tech and KSU and OSU and A&M get together. 

Maybe we should just rename the Big 12 the Big Over.  It’d be more descriptive of the real nature of the competition involved.

Let’s go to the GB&U.

First, the UGLY:

These guys…

     

•  The competition for the first annual Al Derogodas Memorial Award for the most annoying and incompetent color commentary on college football games really heated up last night, as leading candidates Dave Lapham and Bob Davie found themselves competing head-to-head with one another to see which of them could annoy the most viewers in the same time slot.  I really would not have believed that Lapham could top Davie’s woeful performance at the Texas/UTEP game a few weeks back, but I severely underestimated the big guy’s capacity for annoyance.  Not only did Lapham resort to his standard assortment of lame, repetitive analysis points, he also stole Davie’s tactic of constantly mispronouncing Texas Defensive Coordinator Will Muschamp’s last name, even adding stuttering to the routine at a couple of points.   Throw in his constant reference to field commentator Jim Knox as “Knoxie” - which always brings to mind an army of Germans goose-stepping through the streets of Warsaw - and Lapham proved conclusively that he is determined to secure the inaugural Derogodas Trophy, and is not a man to be trifled with.  I would throw Dave South into this competition, but he pretends to be a play-by-play guy, so doesn’t qualify.  Plus, he’s more funny than he is annoying.

• The Texas running game - tailbacks only.  If you just glance at the stat sheet, it doesn’t look all that bad.  For the game, the Texas tailbacks racked up a total of 139 yards on 31 totes.  That’s what, 4.5/4.6 yards per carry?  Not too bad.  But take out Ogbannaya’s 51 yard pop, and you’re left with 78 yards on 30 carries.  That’s 2.6 ypc, and sadly descriptive of what we saw from this bunch against a very mediocre CU defense last night.  It’s not all their fault - the line played like packed panther crap most of the night, the scheme incorporates virtually zero misdirection, and most times they’re getting the damn ball standing still.  This will not move the football against Oklahoma.  It just won’t.  And if Colt is going to be our most effective runner next week, I fear for his health.

Next, the BAD:

• No effort to stretch the field - our passing game made zero effort to throw the ball downfield for most of the night.  One of the reasons why our running game was so moribund was because CU felt quite comfortable putting 8 or 9 guys in the box since they had no fear we would attempt to throw the ball over their heads.  

• Offensive line play - just was not good at all.  No holes in the ground game, and repeated breakdowns in pass protection with CU bringing only 4.  In their defense, the laughably rudimentary nature of the rushing scheme and refusal by the OC to emply misdirection in any effective manner means they’re always going to be outnumbered at the point of attack.  It’s hard to create much space for the backs when you have 3 trying to block 5 down after down.  But the breakdowns in the pass protection and four sacks surrendered to this bunch does not bode well at all for Dallas.

• Kickoff coverage - ugh.  Not good at all, despite kickoffs that continue to be high and deep.  There is something missing here - these kicks are very coverable.

• No Fozzy.  Is this “bruised knee” ever going to heal?  He is desperately needed for next week.

On to the GOOD:

• Defensive intensity - this aspect of the defense has ramped up noticeably with each passing game.  Last night these guys came out with steam curling from their ears.  This is how Texas defense should be played.  The most fun part of it is watching our LBs and DBs making tackles downhill, rather than sideways or chasing a guy down from behind.

• Defensive line play - outstanding.  Orakpo and Miller were purely dominant.  CU’s running game made the Longhorns’ look positively efficient by comparison.  For the night, the Buffs totaled 49 yards on 28 carries.  Even factoring out the 25 yards lost on 3 sacks, that doesnt look very pretty.

• Pressure on the QB - Cody Hawkins is a very lucky man this morning.  He’s very fortunate he plays in a 3-to-5 step drop, quick release passing game, because otherwise he might have awakened in a hospital bed.  The Longhorn defense may have recorded only 3 sacks, but the pressure on Hawkins was constant and relentless all night long.

• Defensive backs - again, just like last week, there was a noticeable uptick in the confidence and abandon with which these guys played last night.  Chykie Brown’s terrific block of the game’s first pass set the tone, and the DBs made play after play after play.  Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon are turning into a very good set of safeties.

• Other defensive standouts - Roddrick Muckelroy is the obvious one.  He is the man among the LBs, and once again led the team in tackles.  This is getting to be a trend.

• Offensive standouts - Colt McCoy, despite throwing two bad picks, had another efficient night.  Quan Cosby continues to show tremendous hands and an absence of fear in traffic.  And Chris Ogbannaya obviously had a career night with 71 yards rushing, 116 yards receiving, and two big touchdowns. 

• Special teams continued to be fine, with the exception of the kickoff coverage mentioned above.

• Defensive Player of the Game - Roy freaking Miller.  He’s a man.

• Offensive Player of the Game - Chris Ogbannaya.

• Special Teams Player of the Game - John Gold.  Again.

Now, it’s on to Dallas and the #1 Oklahoma Sooners.  OU brutalized Baylor yesterday, running out to a 28-0 lead in the first quarter and then coasting to an easy 49-17 win.  They’ve pretty much brutalized every team on their schedule so far, so that was no surprise.  Like Texas, they’ve played one representative team, TCU, and ran up 21 first quarter points on them as well.  TCU came into that game with the nation’s top-ranked defense.  They left that game with something less than that.

Unlike Texas, when an opposing defense comes into a game with the intent of putting 8 or 9 guys in the box and stopping the run, the Sooners simply let Sam Bradford drop back and air it out.  The Sooner offense is very potent, and very balanced.  Unlike Texas, their rushing scheme is very sophisticated and employs plenty of misdirection to keep opposing defenses off-balance.  DeMarco Murray is a stud.

Oklahoma will probably open as a 6 to 9 point favorite in this game, and deservedly so.  That doesn’t mean Texas can’t compete with OU, and it doesn’t mean Texas can’t win the game.  It does mean that Texas will have to play its very best football in all phases of the game, and hope the Sooners make some mistakes.

The Longhorns’ in ability to stretch the field in the passing game is especially troubling going into this game.  One gets the feeling that any big plays we might have in the passing game will come when plays break down and Colt improvises.  That’s not a good game plan.  One also gets the feeling that this could be another Texas/OU contest in which the Texas tailbacks average less than 2 yards a pop.  That might change if Fozzy Whittaker miraculously recovers from his four week “knee bruise”, but even if he’s healthy, one wonders how much the coaches will be willing to use him, given his lack of experience and playing time this year.

Still, even with those very real and troubling concerns, there is something about this Longhorn team, some intangible feeling that these guys have come to a point, especially on defense, at which they are true believers in their coaches and what they’re being asked to do, that makes me think they will find a way to give Oklahoma one hell of a football game next Saturday.

I really like this team, and I know pretty much all of you do as well.  It’s a great time to bleed burnt orange.

Hook ‘em!!!