The State of the Big 12 - Caution Against Irrational Exuberance

In a speech before the American Enterprise Institute during the stock market boom in 1996, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan cautioned that much of the rise might be due to what he then sensed was a growing bubble in stocks related to the high tech industry.  A few years later that bubble burst, and the nation’s economy went into recession.

Here we are 12 years later, 1/3rd of the way through the 2008 college football regular season, and one gets a growing sense that Texas Longhorn fans may be in need of a similar caution warning.  Certainly, any fan with some sense of what he or she is looking at who has watched the team progress trough its first four games has to be pleased with this year’s version of the Longhorns.  The offense has proven to be very efficient under the masterful direction of Colt McCoy, even though it lacks the clear difference-making talent at the skill positions that some of Mack Brown’s prior Texas teams have possessed.  The defense has shown steady improvement every week, with a defensive line that has become dominant, a very athletic set of linebackers, and a young secondary that becomes noticeably better with each passing contest.

The special teams have become special again for the most part.  In John Gold we appear to have found a punter who can give us an edge field position against most teams, something this program has lacked for many years.  Justin Tucker’s kickoffs have been high and long for the most part, and Quan Cosby has been a reliable, if not spectacular, kickoff and punt return man.   Kickoff coverage has been a little hit or miss, but punt coverage has been outstanding.  Plus, our one-year self-imposed moratorium on even attempting to block punts and placekicks was officially rescinded this summer.  All in all, a dramatic upgrade from the rank mediocrity we saw in this critical phase of the game in 2007.

So we’re all excited, and well we should be.  Last year we became resigned to watching a team that was ill-prepared and poorly coached week after week.  The first four games in 2007 saw the team struggle mightily to get past the likes of UCF and TCU, and repeatedly take 2 or 3 quarters to begin displaying even a semblance of competence on the offensive side of the ball.

Many of us speculated in the off-season whether or not Mack’s new attention to team discipline and game preparation that he and his staff showed in the lead-up to the great performance in last year’s Holiday Bowl would carry over into this season.  The answer thus far is a clear and unqualified “yes”.  The brilliant hirings of Will Muschamp on the defensive side of the ball and Major Applewhite on the offensive side have proven to be real difference-makers.

All of that is the good news, but there remain some real caution signs that should temper our expectations for the remainder of the season:

• The team still lacks a clear, consistent lead running back.  Cody Johnson has shown flashes, but the staff remains concerned about his conditioning and has severely limited his playing time.  Fozzy Whittaker looked very good in his one outing against UTEP and is apparently going to be able to play this week in Boulder.  Otherwise, the running game, other than Colt McCoy’s improvisations, has been very moribund.  Hopefully, that changes this week.
• The loss of Blaine Irby robbed the team of an outstanding passing game weapon which is not going to be replaced.
• None of the young WRs have stepped up to become a reliable 3rd receiver.  The loss of Irby creates even more of an urgency for this to happen, given that the team will need to resort to more 3 and 4 receiver sets in obvious passing situations.
• The defensive secondary is improving, but still very young, and about to be thrown into a guantlet of outstanding passing teams.  Whether they will be able to stand up to the likes of Sam Bradford, Chase Daniel, Graham Harrell and Zac Robinson remains to be seen.
    

 All of which brings us to our remaining schedule and the state of the Big 12 Conference at the 1/3rd point in 2008.  Put simply, our schedule is extremely tough, and the conference as a whole is very, very good.

Five of our final eight games will be played against teams currently ranked in the national top 25.  Three of those games will come against teams currently ranked in the top 10.  On successive weeks we will play the current #1 and #3 teams in the country, Oklahoma and Missouri.

 The Big 12 South currently boasts the first, fifth, seventh and twenty-first ranked teams.  Oklahoma is no surprise to anyone, and is fully deserving of its top ranking at this point in the season.  They have steamrolled their first five opponents, averaging 50 points per game and giving up not very damn much in return.  When TCU’s top-ranked defense in the nation showed up in Norman with a plan to sell out to stop the Sooners’ outstanding ground attack, Bob Stoops simply had Sam Bradford demolish the Frogs with his arm, putting up 21 quick points and effectively ending the game before the first quarter had come to a close.  The Sooners are good.

The much-advertised improvements in Texas Tech’s defense may or may not have come about - the Raiders’ schedule thus far has yet to present an opponent from which one might get a good read.  But there’s no question about Tech’s ability to put up points in clusters, and Harrell-to-Crabtree is as dangerous a combination as exists anywhere in the country.  Plus, Coach Mike Leach has even apparently figured out how to mount a respectable running attack and run some clock this year, which will definitely help his defense if he can carry that over into conference play.

Oklahoma State has put up more points than even OU or Tech, which they’ve needed to do since their defense has given up points in great chunks as well.  One gets the sense that this is not a game in which our team can perform its traditional first half OSU sleepwalk and get away with it.

Baylor is much improved under new coach Art Briles, and seems to have found a real budding star in quarterback Robert Griffin.  Connecticut, a legit top 40 or so team this year, had to play its best football to sneak past the Bears. 

A&M is horrible and doesn’t deserve much mention here but for the fact that really bad Aggie teams have managed to beat the Longhorns the last two seasons.

In the Big 12 North, you have Missouri and Kansas and not a whole lot else.  Unfortunately, Missouri and Kansas are both on the Longhorns’s schedule this year, and the only part of “not a whole lot else” we get is Colorado in Boulder this week.

Missouri is really good offensively, but very suspect on defense.  Chase Daniel is a legitimate Heisman candidate, and WR Jeremy Maclin is a true badass of the first order.

Kansas appears to have fallen back a little bit from last year’s great run, although the narrow loss to highly-ranked USF is nothing to be ashamed of.  They’ve dominated their other three opponents, and there is little question that the Longhorns’ trip to Lawrence will be a very tough road game.

Nebraska and Kansas State both appear to be the definition of mediocrity, and Iowa State is still terrible and showing little improvement in Gene Chizik’s second year there.

So, what does this all mean for the Longhorns and our expectations for the rest of the season?  Just this:  Temper your expectations.  Be prepared for some disappointments.

Texas is good, maybe really good.  I think we can make that assessment from what we’ve seen from the team thus far, even though the schedule has not been what we thought it might be before the season began.  But we still have significant weak spots and lots of youth on the defensive side of the ball.

This schedule is the toughest a Texas team has played in a while, maybe the toughest conference schedule Mack Brown has ever faced, although we might argue about a comparison to 1999.  It’s going to be awfully difficult for this Texas team to get through the next eight games unscathed, or even with only one loss.

I caught myself writing the other day that other than OU, the only game I’m really worried about at this point is the trip to Lubbock.  As clear an example of irrational exuberance as I can think of.  We need to remember that even the great team of 2005, a team that has to be considered in any analysis of the greatest college football teams of all time, struggled mightily to beat Kansas in Lawrence (OK, that was the 2004 team - I get it, and fuck all y’all), fell 19 points behind Oklahoma State, and had a hell of a time beating A&M.  A&M may be a doormat this year, but Kansas and Oklahoma State are both much-improved teams over their 2005 versions.

I came into this season with an expectation of a record of 8-4 or 9-3 and a trip to the Alamo Bowl.  Fortunately, the team is performing at a much higher level than I had anticipated, but even given that, a sober look at what lies ahead and the weaknesses that still exist on the team lead to a realistic projection of a likely final record of 10-2 and a trip to the Holiday or Cotton Bowls.

Optimistically, a win over OU - which is certainly a possibility - could even land the team in the Big 12 Championship game with a shot at a BCS bowl.  If Mack and his staff achieve that with this team, they all deserve a hell of a raise, because it will have been an extraordinary job of coaching.

Hook ‘em!!!