Why I’m a Realist
I was going to title this “Why I’m a Pessimist” in order to pose a direct dichotomy to ChrisApplewhite’s prior post, but I’m really not a pessimist about Texas football, past present or future. Well, ok, I was a hell of a pessimist throughout the John Mackovic regime, but it didn’t take a genius to figure out where that particular ship was sailing.
Will Rogers never met this guy.
So, not a pessimist, not an optimist - a realist. That’s what I am, and I have some very good reasons for being so. Let’s go down through them, in no particular order:
- It Wasn’t All Vince - Ok, I’ll give you that - the 2005/2006 successes weren’t “all” Vince, but they were damn sure mostly Vince. We were an upper-second-tier Division IA program prior to 2005. In 2005/06, we were arguably the dominant program in the country. And now, since Vince left, we have regressed right back to the upper-second-tier program status. It doesn’t take a whole lot of analysis or deep thought to figure out why - for those two magic years, we had the greatest player in the history of college football (no matter what ESPN and Kirk Bohls think) playing QB for our team. Simple as that. Yes, Michael Griffin was great, Michael Huff was great, we had lots of really fine players on those two great teams. But Micheal Griffin didn’t pick up that 4th and 18 against Kansas, did he? Did Michael Huff lead the incredible comeback from down 35-7 against OSU? And who was it that scored on that 4th and 7 on our very last chance against USC? Vince was the man. Period.
- Where are the Difference Makers? - I look at the 2008 Longhorns, and I just don’t see a real dominant player at any position, offense or defense. The great teams always have several such talents in their starting lineups - I wish we had one. Last season, we had a difference maker named Jamaal Charles, and he basically won two games for us late - OSU and Nebraska. I look at 2008’s collection of running backs and see a bunch of A.J. Jones/Graylin Wyatt clones. (Whatever happened to Graylin Wyatt, anyway? ) These are good backs, but not guys who are going to carry the team back from a 2 or 3 TD deficit in the 4th quarter. Not gonna happen.Colt McCoy, like Major Applewhite and Chris Simms, is a very good college quarterback. But he’s not a dominant talent, not a guy who is going to make lemonade from Greg Davis’s lemon schemes. There’s no dominant WR, no dominant TE, no dominant offensive linemen. A collection of good to very good players, to be sure, but no one who’s going to elevate the team above the talents of the OC and his pedestrian schemes.Same thing on defense. Again, lots of very nice, talented guys, but where’s the Micheal Huff in that secondary? Deon Beasley? Perhaps. Who knows? Where’s the Derrick Johnson at linebacker? Where’s the Shaun Rogers on the defensive line? The Cory Redding? The Casey Hampton? Who among our defensive players is going to make the ass-kicking plays that Huff made against OU in 2005? I just don’t see it, and we’re going to need those kinds of players and those kinds of plays to win games against teams like OU, Colorado on the road, and Kansas.
- Muschamp is Going to Elevate the Defense - I surely do hope so, but again, he’s going to have to do it with good, but not great, talent on hand. Our recruiting in the defensive secondary and LB has been a major cluster- you-know-what for the last several years, and the chickens are coming home to roost. They’ve been roosting for awhile now, come to think of it. I think Muschamp is a great hire, I just wish he had great talent to work with. But, if he can at least produce a defense that is fundamentally sound and well-conditioned, it will indeed be a very significant improvement over the last couple of seasons.
- Special Teams Have Not Been Very Special - Last year’s special teams were as bad as we’ve put on the field in this decade. The biggest mystery to me was the fact that the program that has led the nation in blocking placekicks and punts simply quit attempting to do so last year. What the hell??? Was that MacDuff’s influence? I’ve never seen any sort of explanation for the change in direction in that phase of our game.We also seem to have fallen into this rut of thinking that a good fair catch constitutes a good punt return. Kickoff returns were mediocre as well. All of these factors added up to a virtually complete lack of big plays from our special teams on the season. Is this play-it-safe philosophy going to change in 2008? Given the likelihood that we’re going to have problems moving the ball on offense, we’re going to need big plays and scores from our special teams in key games. Will they be there?
- Mack’s Changed - Look How Tough He Got After the A&M Disaster - Hey, I’ll give you that one, too, to a point. Mack probably did the best coaching job of his career getting the team prepared for it’s latest trip to San Diego, and should be commended for it. By all accounts, his new get-tough persona carried over into the Spring, which is also encouraging, and the addition of the fiery Muschamp only reinforced that. All I would caution about this is that this mode of behavior is outside of Mack’s normal comfort zone, which we have witnessed over a period of ten solid years and change. Mack’s a human being like anybody else, and the nature of any human is to eventually fall back into one’s comfort zone. So the likelihood is that this “new” Mack Brown is a temporary thing, and the only question is how long it’ll last. If it lasts all the way to September, that’ll be great. I sure hope it does, and even past that long. All I know is I’m tired of becoming optimistic about seeming changes in philosophy and behavior, only to be disappointed when it proves to be short-lived. So I’ll just stay in wait and see mode for the time being.
Look, we’re going to be pretty good in spite of all the question marks. There’s plenty of talent on-hand to beat all the weak sisters (5 of them this year) on the schedule, and to ensure wins over at least 3 of the 7 teams on our schedule that might have a shot at beating us: Arkansas, OU, Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, Tech and A&M. And please, don’t tell me A&M has no chance of beating us in 2008, because that’s what you all thought in 2006 and 2007, too, and we saw how well that worked out for you.
So 8-4 is as bad as I can see it getting in 2008 - there’s just too much overall talent on the team for the coaches to screw it up any worse than that. And it could get substantially better than that should Beasley and/or a couple of others on the defense develop into real studs, should McGee or Whitaker prove to be better talents than they’ve shown thus far, should Irby develop into a dominant TE, and somebody, anybody step up at wide receiver.
But until some or all of those things happen, there’s just no reason I can see to be overly optimistic about getting to a 10 win regular season, much less beating OU. This far out, 9-3 and another trip to Dallas or San Diego look very likely to me, with 8-4 being the downside and 10-2 a surprising upside. If this team should win 11 regular season games and play in the Big 12 Championship Game, we need to name something very significant after Mack, because he will have proven he is truly one of the best coaches in the country.
April 5, 2008 at 4:06 pm
I noticed your “It’s All Vince” argument failed to mention the ‘05 trip to Columbus in any way, shape, or form. I’m interested in knowing whether or not you even watched this game considering your willingness to blatantly ignore its significance as a true “team” victory.
Vince’s TD pass to Limas was a legendary play, but it didn’t impact the game nearly as much as the following:
1.) The previous suspension of Troy Smith that allowed the highly inferior Justin Zwick to take the majority of tOSU’s snaps.
2.) Offensive play-calling from Ohio State so hideous it probably made GD blush. 1 total TD, 5/15 on 3rd downs, 250 yards total offense.
3.) Ryan Hamby’s epic endzone chokejob that would’ve given tOSU a two TD lead with 5 minutes to play.
4.) An ungodly defensive effort from Drew Kelson that caused a fumble at midfield when tOSU was 3 first downs away from a game-winning FG.
5.) The endzone escape act from Ramonce Taylor that could’ve easily led to a safety and early knockout blow given Vince’s struggles in the first half.
April 5, 2008 at 5:01 pm
I think you and everyone is really underestimating the impact of renewed energy/focus of the program in general and Muschamp in particular. I look at the past 4 recruiting classes and I just don’t see how this team will fair as badly as you think when the fire is lit under them, which I undoubtedly believe it has been. I see worst case is 9-3 with best case 12-0, with 10-2 very realistic.
April 5, 2008 at 5:03 pm
The Hamby drop was in the 3rd quarter. And other than #4, I’m not sure how any of those point to a “team” victory, it seems like you are arguing that OSU should have won but for us getting lucky.
Of course, we can play what if all day- i remember Kelson dropping an easy pick 6 that would have put us up 17-0 (I think that’s when it was)
April 5, 2008 at 5:05 pm
Young had 346 total yards against Ohio State in 2005. On the road at the #5 defense in the nation.
Only four teams had more yards than that against Ohio State that year, and Notre Dame had 348.
April 5, 2008 at 5:29 pm
I think you’re slightly too hard on the defense. But your commentary about the running backs is spot-on and it would be the reason I couldn’t sleep nights if worrying about football still kept me up. If one of those guys doesn’t step up big time, no one is going to bother with them and defenses will focus on McCoy and his inexperienced receivers. And then if no one steps on the WR corps … well, huh … uh …
…
someone always steps up, though. Right?
April 5, 2008 at 5:38 pm
RB is the least of our worries, offensively.
April 5, 2008 at 5:59 pm
Isn’t it great how much brainpower is brought to bear on dissecting Longhorn football? I feel sorry for those in smaller, dumber fan bases.
There’s a step change in effectiveness that could be made to this offense, and it’s very simple. Put Chiles in the slot. In the open field he is the easiest 15 yards going. Don’t deny yourself an easy 15 yards.
April 5, 2008 at 7:10 pm
Don’t be so hard on Mach-ovic. At least he was innovative on offense and could bring the big time RB’s to Texas ( as well as other great recruits from around the country).
And before VY, he presided over the biggest Texas win in many, many years. James Brown to Derek Lewis to seal the win over Nebraska - unforgettable. And I can’t forget finally beating those pig f-er’s from College Station after a too-long atm win streak. And 2 years is too, too long,
I don’t long for his return, but we’ve danced on his grave enough.
April 5, 2008 at 9:20 pm
No, we haven’t. I intend to dance on his figurative grave until the day I die. I may even have something derogatory about him inscribed on my tombstone.
April 6, 2008 at 6:30 am
“RB is the least of our worries, offensively.”
That’s probably right, which is the reason for my lack of optimism about our ability to move the football in important games this coming year.
April 6, 2008 at 6:37 am
No Difference Makers - I think you hit this one on the head, especially on offense. Defensively, Muschamp will be able to work with good enough players to scheme something up this year. If player X can’t do it, he will find somebody that will.
On offense is where our lack of difference maker will hurt us. It seems that we have nobody with a big play ability that scares the shit out of a defense. Desean Hales does, but it will take a loss against OU for Mack to even think about playing a freshman.
April 6, 2008 at 8:39 am
I hate you Darrell Scott…
April 6, 2008 at 8:40 am
I want to know why McWhorter does not get more criticism. Was Nunez that bad? Don’t answer that.
Was he bad enough to make the next guy a savior after several years of mediocre coaching. Why do we seem to miss out on better lineman who actually achieve on the collegiate level. We get projects with good feet. Vince made that line and we Vince has not been able to save our line the last 2 years.
I want kids that are blockers and not dancers. I am pessimistic right now because of the lack of blockers on the line. Colt needs time. Chiles will need plenty of time if he intends to throw the ball.
I have not seen film on our 09 guys, so I don’t know what to think of the quality of the class. But if the 07 class is a dud, McWhorter needs to start getting some serious criticism.
April 6, 2008 at 10:14 am
(Hopeful) defensive playmakers:
1. Huff = Beasley. Yes.
2. DJ = Muck or Kindle
3. Rogers = Houston or Acho
Offensive playmakers…wait til ‘09.
1. Fozzy
2. One of those damn WRs
3. Russell Shepard. Wait, what do you mean he committed to LSU? Balls.
April 6, 2008 at 10:14 am
That was indeed a pessimistic post. You essentially write off all of our young players as non-difference makers without so much as a “as of now” or “proven.”
And our recruiting in the secondary is a cluster f? Really?
Personally I am excited about the linebackers this year. If kindle is healthy he can definitely be a difference maker. We need to recruit more athletes at the position, however.
I agree that the offense does not look inspiring for this year.
April 6, 2008 at 11:29 am
Eyes:
My thoughts are -
1. You nailed Special Teams. Our current methodology there is to successfully fair catch the punt (even if the first defender is ten feet away) and to place people on the kick return teams that won’t fumble. If we’re going to be a defensive oriented football team in ‘08, we’d better start exploring ways to flip field position.
2. Offense. Clearly an absence of playmakers. There are a number of reliable guys, a number of productive guys, and they’ll be sufficient when we play poor and mediocre defenses. Think Texas ‘99. Unless Malcolm Williams or one of the youngsters proves to be a major talent, we’ll see a humiliating drop off against elite defenses - to the tune of 10 points and 200 yards of offense. If you have the hosses in the secondary to man up and play the run with even or greater numbers, you have a chance to humiliate us. K-State ‘99 type shit. Thankfully, I don’t see a large number of teams like that on our schedule.
3. Defense - You and I may diverge here slightly. A number of good, well coached players who can run is all that’s necessary to play really good defense. It’s wonderful to have a Lawrence Taylor or Reggie White, but the Killer Bs can work too. I’ll take a bunch of 8s on a 10 point scale across the board, particularly if they’re unified under an actual gameplan with a real defensive philosophy underpinning their efforts. Muschamp seems to get it - as evidenced by moving Houston to DT, playing the young DBs, and moving some of our base towards nickel. My biggest fear is that Muschamp won’t understand the spread offenses he’ll be facing week after week in this league, but early indications are good.
anonymous -
Our recruiting at DB was absolutely a clusterfuck for a three year period until the breakthrough class of 2007. So yes, really.
April 6, 2008 at 2:45 pm
I’m a pessimist. I equate a ‘get tough’ policy from Mack Brown with a snarl from the Jonas Brothers. I have my doubts about exactly how ‘tough’ those Holiday Bowl practices really were. I suspect coaches in Columbus and Gainesville would find the ‘toughness’ amusing.
I see the optimists placing almost their entire argument on a Holiday Bowl win against a suspect Arizona State team. Pretty thin gruel.
Two reasons I believe 8-4, or 7-5, is alot more realistic than 10-2 or even 9-3: 1. It is undisputed that Mack and staff got lazy after the MNC and made some lazy recruiting decisions. Which leads to…2. There is not a single player on this team that I believe to be a shoo-in for All Big-12 honors going in to the season. 10-2 teams have handfuls of such players. These facts, combined with a tougher schedule [and the annual beatdown from OU a virtual certainty], will make for an Alamo Bowl invite.
April 6, 2008 at 7:19 pm
Well, look, I’m not going to fault anyone for not thinking we can win any hardware this year, but if you expect a 4 or 5 loss season you’re are coming really close to straddling the “hater” line.
I don’t like Greg Davis either but he would have to suicide bomb a team meeting to lose that many games.
April 6, 2008 at 7:39 pm
…or have injuries hit a few key players. Colt goes down early on, and 7-5 will look like a pretty good outcome. Irby goes down, and we have nothing at TE. McGee and Whitaker go down, and boy is it a crap shoot at TB.
We lose one starting DT, and we are in deep shit. Lose a couple of DBs, and it’s Chinese fire drill time.
The concern is not so much lack of talent, it’s a lack of both experienced talent and anything resembling quality depth at several different areas of the team. To get to 10-2 or 11-1, not only do we need several real difference makers to develop who are not readily identifiable right now, we also will need big plays from our special teams, major, major progress on the defensive side of the ball in terms of assignment discipline and intelligent scheming, and some very good luck when it comes to people staying healthy. It’s a lot to hope for.
April 6, 2008 at 7:47 pm
The only person who really holds that big an influence over anything will be Roy Miller. You can’t complain about a lack of playmakers and worry about injuries at the same time. It’s the only advantage we’ll have, because if Quan or Vondrell goes down, who cares? Someone else can come in an be decent to good.
I’m not all that concerned about Colt’s health. It’s not like we can’t score 30 a game with with Chiles or Harris just running the ball. Eliminating the passing game from our offense would probably end up in a net gain.
April 6, 2008 at 8:08 pm
“You can’t complain about a lack of playmakers and worry about injuries at the same time.”
Huh? Well, yeah I can. Miller may not be an overwhelming talent, but he’s damn sure better than anything behind him. Irby may not be David Thomas, but he’s a hell of an upgrade over his backup. Colt may not be Vince, but he’s the only competent QB on the team who is capable of running the entire offense.
There’s a big difference between saying someone’s a playmaker and someone’s a true difference-making talent. You’re talking apples to my oranges. We need the apples to stay health to have any hope at all of a good season this year.
April 6, 2008 at 9:05 pm
Well, one, Colt isn’t capable of running the entire offense. He certainly takes a lot off the table of Davis’ run game. It’s not Colt’s fault but it’s important to consider what is actually being asked of the player when considering the effectiveness of said player.
Two, there is no need to parse the difference between ‘playmaker’ and ’superstar.’ Either you have a guy making a difference or you don’t. Right now we have two guys who can be reasonably counted on to beat anyone put in front of them: Roy Miller and Deon Beasley. Nobody else has earned the status for us to worry about their health.
Frankly, there are some positions where an injury would help out a little. What do we lose if we replace Quan with Williams, or Tanner with Huey, etc?
April 6, 2008 at 9:06 pm
Also, it took me a long time to reply because you completely lost me with your second paragraph. Can you explain that differently so I make sure I understand your argument here?
April 6, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Some reasons to be more optimnistic about the horns next year (thought I would play devil’s advocate):
Major Applewhite studies film like a man looking for a head coaching job. Using this knowledge, he then devises specific strategies to exploit weaknesses specific to that game. GD buys into Major’s newthink because Major is his protege. Better O game plans could easily turn a couple of close losses into victories.
One of the many young wide receivers steps up and turns into a young monster (like Finley his frosh year) who demands a double team. This helps the running game (less run support by DBs) and also reduces pressure on the QB (fewer blitzes by DBs who are faced to pay more attention to pass coverage).
UT’s O line improves significantly in 2008 compared to 2008. Probably will happen and should decrease the variance in the O. It should also help Colt with his happy feet syndrome.
Colt benefits from tough love from Mack, GD, Major, his dad, and even Muschamp to realize that he has to protect the ball (both throwing and running). Big reduction in turnovers by Colt in 2008 turns a couple of losses into victories.
Cody Johnson turns out to be a load at FB which permits the horns to play Cody at FB rather than play Ullman as the second TE (when there is a need for more blocking). Cody turns out to provide the power running the horns have needed since Cedric left.
The RBs are not as brilliant as Jamaal but are more dependable (yeah, this is a real stretch) because they take what they can get and benefit from an improved O line. Horns finally have a power back with speed and power to pick up the short yards.
Mack and GD are re-energized by Major and Muschamp.
Akina is back in charge of special teams which means the special teams should improve a bunch.
The whole team starts playing up to its potential (more) because Major and Muschamp were able to play big time college football only because they gave 100%. M and M will demand nothing less from all the horns.
Muschamp is going to improve the D because he will:
* have better game plans
* get his guys to play together in an intelligent, cohesive fashion.
* devises/implements a D strategy that is tailored to the actual capabilities of the guys on the field (i.e. does not demand that players make plays beyond their ability)
* get a lot more out of the LBs and DBs
* be much more demanding of his players
* will put pressure on the O coaches and Mack to pay more attention to field position and turnovers
April 7, 2008 at 5:28 am
“Also, it took me a long time to reply because you completely lost me with your second paragraph. Can you explain that differently so I make sure I understand your argument here?”
Really, man, a false obtuseness does not become you.
A true difference maker is someone who can dominate a game at his position against any competition. Roy Williams, Ricky Williams, Cedric Benson, Vince Young, David Thomas, Quentin Jammer, Derrick Johnson, Shaun Rogers, Casey Hampton, Michael Huff - these are some obvious examples of true difference makers we’ve had on campus during the Brown era.
Roy Miller’s a fine player, and certainly better than anyone behind him, but he’s no difference maker. Colt McCoy mans his position as well as all but a handful of college QBs, but he’s not going to dominate a game against Oklahoma - hell, he’s not even going to dominate a bad A&M defense.
I can’t believe someone as astute about football as you are can’t recognize this very obvious distinction.
April 7, 2008 at 5:32 am
I recognize the distinction, I don’t understand what it has to do with anything.
April 7, 2008 at 5:35 am
Why I am an optimist By echeese
April 7, 2008 at 5:51 am
Well, then, you and I disagree on this subject, and have little else to discuss regarding it. I can live with that.
April 7, 2008 at 5:58 am
I can’t disagree with something I can’t follow.
I said injuries aren’t a worry if you don’t have anyone worth worrying about.
You, the to the best of my knowledge, told me that I was wrong to claim we had any superstars, which blew my mind.
I asked for clarification and you told me that we don’t have anyone worth worrying about, then declared internet victory.
Tell me what I’m missing here.
April 7, 2008 at 6:23 pm
“I can’t disagree with something I can’t follow.
…
“Tell me what I’m missing here.”
Chris,
What you’re missing is that Eyes doesn’t react kindly when one doesn’t <strike>follow</strike> swallow his unique brand of “logic.”
You’re not the only one. Hope this helps.
April 7, 2008 at 9:24 pm
Chris, please point out where I ever said we didn’t “have anyone worth worrying about”, and then I’ll engage you further here.
If you’re going to argue with strawmen, I don’t have time for you. Sorry.
April 7, 2008 at 9:54 pm
Well, again, I’m not really arguing anything because I don’t understand what you’re trying to say. But this:
“Roy Miller’s a fine player, and certainly better than anyone behind him, but he’s no difference maker. Colt McCoy mans his position as well as all but a handful of college QBs, but he’s not going to dominate a game against Oklahoma - hell, he’s not even going to dominate a bad A&M defense.”
makes it seem like you are making the argument are we don’t have any great talent immediately after saying that I was wrong to say we didn’t have any talent.
That’s what confused me.
April 8, 2008 at 4:44 am
Did someone call me?
April 8, 2008 at 6:04 am
“Roy Miller is a fine player” hardly equates to “Roy Miller is not anyone worth worrying about”. Why you’re confused confuses me.
April 8, 2008 at 7:38 am
Editor’s Note: NVHorn feels Mack will fall into old habits.
April 8, 2008 at 1:28 pm
“Aw, poor DBH. What a frickin’ baby.”
LOL. I’m still laughing at the one where you badmouthed Jerry Jones, then badmouthed some other guy for making a derogatory comment about Jones on the same thread. Then denied you’d badmouthed Jones when he noted your hypocrisy. Then badmouthed me for pasting your own words that proved he was right, which I only did to give you an opportunity to save face. Of course, you never did because you’re never wrong, at least in your mind.
Second verse, same as the first…
April 8, 2008 at 5:19 pm
“but he’s no difference maker.”
April 8, 2008 at 9:19 pm
you’re arguing wrong.