Barking Carnival - All PostsSince 1883.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47205/barking-carnival-fave.png2022-04-25T11:00:00-05:00http://www.barkingcarnival.com/rss/current/2022-04-25T11:00:00-05:002022-04-25T11:00:00-05:00Announcement: A new commenting system is coming to Barking Carnival
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<img alt="Syndication: Austin American-Statesman" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/e2Q6dYhSmgtcnzVRf3f4NYmwFlE=/22x0:1939x1278/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70790574/usa_today_18097261.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Ricardo B. Brazziell/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK</figcaption>
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<p>Coming Wednesday, comments will look different. </p> <p id="5OxLgk">Hey everyone. I’m Beth, and I oversee all of our college communities for SB Nation.</p>
<p id="Fq5SRD">This Thursday will be a big day for our community: we’re moving our comments to a new platform, developed especially for SB Nation. By then, all our college communities will be moving to the new platform, and I’m excited about the change.</p>
<p id="XXgC9j">Some of you may already be familiar with this new platform as we began rolling it out to our NFL sites in 2020, and brought it to some of our college communities last year. This latest launch will mean the entirety of the SB Nation network will be on the same comment platform, which we have worked hard to regularly update in order to provide new features for SB Nation communities specifically. We have also worked hard to implement changes to the user experience based on community member feedback. </p>
<p id="YrHbhm">Why this change? We’ve been using the same commenting platform for over a decade and it’s time for an upgrade. The old system is brittle, and prone to outages. It’s not built for the modern web, and even just maintaining it gets tougher every year.</p>
<p id="BRkLUX">Nobody likes change, but this is a necessary one, and it brings real improvements that’ll make our whole commenting experience better.</p>
<p id="XUy3kG">In the new system, you’ll see features that we’ve wanted to add for years, including:</p>
<ul>
<li id="nRLPWA">Easier embeds (just paste the Twitter/YouTube link)</li>
<li id="AOis0Y">Easier rich text shortcuts (control-B for Bold, control-I for italics)</li>
<li id="j6UJMD">Email notifications when someone replies to you </li>
<li id="vn0c49">See who’s Rec’d your comments</li>
<li id="ypWb08">Better flagging options and strong anti-abuse controls</li>
<li id="3DP6wN">A GIF library for easy image posting</li>
<li id="KQ7JpD">Mute commenters you don’t want to see</li>
<li id="CUFLY0">Easily find the most Rec’d comments</li>
</ul>
<p id="Eryg0f">Plus a whole host of features that we’ve kept because they make our communities special, such as new comment highlighting, color changes with high Rec counts, Z key scrolling, external image embeds, sarcasm font, and much more.</p>
<p id="CLDJkD">This platform has been built specifically for SB Nation communities and, for the first time, we now have a team dedicated to constantly evolving and improving our commenting tools. </p>
<p id="iK51YM">I know that new things take a bit of time to get used to — I ask only that you give it a chance, try it on a few articles, and then tell us honestly what you think. This is a permanent work in progress — we will continue to evolve the tools over the coming months and years, to give you the tools and platform you deserve. In fact, we have already added dozens of new features based on feedback from our audiences since our initial launch on NFL communities last year. You can help make it better by giving us your feedback in the comments or emailing coralsupport@voxmedia.com</p>
<p id="gAqu6D">Some important information about the change: your old comments are being saved and will be returned to the pages in the future, but for now, stories won’t contain comments posted prior to the changeover. So please be mindful that any discussions happening at the time the switch is flipped will be interrupted. </p>
<p id="po6tz1">Your comment history will now be located under the My Profile tab at the top of the comments (not the top of the page), which is also where your comments archive will be restored when we bring them back.</p>
<p id="TFPcT9">The new platform will go live on Barking Carnival beginning Wednesday, April 27. You can use the same login as always.</p>
<p id="KovstG">Thanks as always for being here. Now let’s talk.</p>
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https://www.barkingcarnival.com/2022/4/25/23033828/announcement-a-new-commenting-system-is-coming-to-barking-carnivalbethmaiman2021-12-02T07:30:00-06:002021-12-02T07:30:00-06:00The Week That Will Be: Championship Saturday
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Kansas State at Texas" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/w4MZLOV94sB19ODB66CQJTOigyA=/0x1:4014x2677/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70218884/usa_today_17237093.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Horns are done, but the games go on. </p> <p id="QwwCQy"><strong>Last Week: 4-1-1 ATS 4-2 SU</strong></p>
<p id="oAyFY2"><strong>For the Year: 40-37-1 (.519) (-$110) ATS 52-26 (.667) SU</strong></p>
<p id="AncsHi"><em><strong>Chalk (LSU +6.5 vs. Texas A&M):</strong></em></p>
<p id="hVAK9a">LSU won this game on a 28-yard dime from Max Johnson to Jaray Jenkins with twenty seconds left, but they outgained the Aggies 412-296 and held Texas A&M to 54 rushing yards on 28 attempts, a paltry 1.9 yards per carry. The Aggies were on cloud nine this time last year thinking they had a shot at the playoff, this year they have four losses and just lost to a coach that is in Destin drinking from one of those punch bowls with twenty straws in it right about now.</p>
<p id="YKK2Qb"><em><strong>Bad Beat (Ohio State -8.5 @ Michigan): </strong></em></p>
<p id="YUxQjx">I picked Ohio State to cover in this column last week but picked Michigan in my pick ‘em, so I guess I like to cover all bases. What a performance by the Wolverines on Saturday in what I think might have been the most enjoyable game of the 2021 season thus far. </p>
<p id="xWbBVi">The star of the show was Michigan defensive lineman Aidan Hutchinson, who had an incredible 15 quarterback pressures (as tracked by Pro Football Focus). Incredibly only 3% of Michigan plays were negative and they only had two penalties. It helps tremendously when you aren’t playing behind the chains all day. </p>
<p id="TTsvnE">The loss was Ryan Day’s first conference loss as head coach of Ohio State, and Michigan’s first top-5 win since 2006 (Notre Dame) and the first home win of that ilk since 2003 (also Ohio State). </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="qCR68l">
<p id="P2M9Ba">Let’s do a little scattershooting this week while wondering whatever happened to Marty Cherry…</p>
<p id="BPi2TO">Say what you want about 5-7 not being any different from 4-8, but it nothing else the optics of taking a 7-game losing streak into the off-season would have been awful, so thank whatever deity you worship for that win last Friday in Austin. </p>
<p id="mM0fRm">I’m not sure any of us expected a defensive effort like that, especially after a rough start, but Kansas State had just over 100 yards of offense in the second half (and didn’t score after the half). Texas also held Kansas State to 1-of-11 on third and fourth downs, including two huge stops in the fourth quarter. </p>
<p id="8DoGgP">It was a terrible year that we will all hope to forget, but the team showed up didn’t just go through the motions (well, most didn’t) and got that particular monkey off their badk headed into the off-season. Kudos to them.</p>
<p id="Eb9InS">Doesn’t that game feel like it was about three weeks ago? My gosh what a weekend in college football, from epic snow games to epic upsets to almost epic upsets that are still funny because the team that choked isn’t very well liked, either, and then to the events coming out of Norman and South Bend in the past few days.</p>
<p id="Nblm4B">Lincoln Riley snuck out of town like he is some sort of nerdy Batman and then leaves secret agents behind to recruit for USC while they are still in Oklahoma. Brian Kelly says playoff be damned, c’mon boys, we’re going to Baton Rouge! Only to look behind him and find nobody actually trailing him. Of course Marcus Freeman (Kellly’s defensive coordinator) and Tommy Rees (offensive coordinator) decided to stay in South Bend, while Kelly must now hire a new staff once again.</p>
<p id="V18Zlh">As of press time Oklahoma had yet to name a replacement, but we did have the silly exercise today of Matt Rhule’s name being hoisted onto a golden pillow and put on display by Oklahoma saying “look everyone, we can take a NFL head coach away” but that story turned out to be a house of cards.</p>
<p id="1PW2AE">No, it will likely be Brent Venables that gets the job, and Texas fans should be more than willing to take their chances with a first-time head coach after 20+ years of being a coordinator. And one that was run out of town not that long ago at that.</p>
<p id="aofChy">Venables might turn out to be a good coach, and perhaps he finds an offensive coordinator that has some success, but Lincoln Riley went 55-10 in five seasons in Norman, winning 4 Big 12 titles and going to the CFP three times. He was there five years and his quarterback finished first or second in the Heisman voting three of those years. </p>
<p id="UUGMuv">It is the end of an era in Oklahoma, and one that Texas should be rejoiceful about.</p>
<p id="4bUEsq">And finally, we sit here entering the final weekend before bowl season with a good chance of having a playoff that doesn’t include Ohio State, Oklahoma, Clemson and Alabama, who have made a combined 20 appearances in the CFP, out of a possible 28 appearances. Incredible. </p>
<p id="C3925B">And now watch these be the lowest rated semi-finals and finals ever.</p>
<p id="q61I6e">I think everyone agrees Georgia is in win or lose. Michigan is in with a win. Cincinnati is <em>probably </em>in with a win. Baylor and TCU say hi. Alabama is in with a win. Oklahoma State is in if they win and Alabama loses. And Notre Dame likely needs a Georgia, Houston and Baylor win (wouldn’t that be the funniest national title ever?)</p>
<p id="teVNeB">I suppose I am happy for the Bearcats for getting their shot, but mostly I’m just happy that we can stop talking about it all the time now. </p>
<p id="N3CeCk">And yes, for the 8th year in a row, Texas enters this weekend with zero chance of the playoff. </p>
<p id="lRmY3i">Perhaps one day.</p>
<p id="WOpjos">If we ever win a recruiting battle again.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="mpWVvc">
<h3 id="sJmthE"><strong>AAC Championship: Houston vs. Cincinnati -10.5:</strong></h3>
<p id="UOTrBd">What a great matchup this is – Houston hasn’t lost since September 4th, and Cincinnati hasn’t lost since January 1st. Both teams feature tough defenses (Cincinnati is 10th in the country in SP+ defense, Houston is 15th), and while Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder gets all the hype, they have similar statistics, at least when it comes to throwing the football.</p>
<p id="Wv57YK">Ridder has thrown for an even 3,000 yards with 27 touchdowns to only 8 interceptions, while Houston’s Clayton Tune has thrown for 3,013 with 26 touchdowns and…8 interceptions as well. </p>
<p id="CpWuV7">Tune has thrown only 4 of those interceptions during this win streak (he had 4 in the season opening loss to Texas Tech) but has especially turned it on since the Halloween weekend game against SMU. He has three games in that span with at least 300 yards passing and has thrown 16 touchdowns in five games. </p>
<p id="XVOfXO">Of course that is nothing new for Desmond Ridder, who will surpass the 10,000 yard mark for his career in this game. He’s also rushed for more than 2,100 yards and has 28 touchdowns on the ground. </p>
<p id="1gP5JT">I expect Houston to stay in it for a while, but the Bearcats are just on a different level.</p>
<p id="ttXNzD"><em><strong>Cincinnati 28 Houston 21</strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="cmpz8y">
<h3 id="H7hNGi"><strong>Pac-12 Championship: Utah -3 vs. Oregon:</strong></h3>
<p id="pPWkpc">These two teams met just two weeks ago in Salt Lake City in a game that did not go well at all for the Ducks – they lost 38-7 and were eliminated from the playoff conversation. The Utes rushed for 208 yards to Oregon’s 63 in that one – that will have to completely change for the Ducks to reverse their fortune in this one. </p>
<p id="wZAAIu">Oregon quarterback Anthony Brown was awful in that matchup. He completed less than 50% of his passes at only a 6.6 yards per attempt clip, but he had what might have been the best game of his career last week against Oregon State, throwing for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns while adding 83 yards and a score on the ground. </p>
<p id="8Aqktz">I expect the Ducks to have a much better showing than they did a couple of weeks ago, but Utah’s defense is just better. The Utes have won 8 of 9 games, they’re on a hot one.</p>
<p id="spIkBp">The winner of this game goes to Pasadena and the Rose Bowl, the loser goes to…San Antonio. Sorry, Ducks. </p>
<p id="1vJhbs"><em><strong>Utah 31 Oregon 27</strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="Wmdauw">
<p id="kAaJ8p"><strong>ACC Championship: Wake Forest vs. Pittsburgh -3:</strong></p>
<p id="oHhkFh">Raise your hand if you had this as the ACC Championship before the season started. These programs have met exactly once on the gridiron – a 34-13 Pitt win back in 2018.</p>
<p id="MQleoC">These two programs like to score, as evidenced by the 72.5 O/U set by Vegas. It is with good reason as Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett is good enough to have broken Dan Marino’s record for most touchdowns at Pitt with his 40th touchdown pass last weekend. He’s thrown for at least two touchdowns in every game this year.</p>
<p id="LpKysZ">Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman has his own touchdown streak, as he has thrown a touchdown pass in 15 straight games. He’s thrown for more than 300 yards in 6 of his last 8 ball games.</p>
<p id="wHcHPO">Pitt has never won an outright conference championship and Wake Forest hasn’t won one since 2006. This conference has been dominated by Clemson of late, of course. This will be the first time since 2014 that Clemson will not wear that crown. </p>
<p id="sW16Fs"><em><strong>Pitt 44 Wake Forest 38</strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="SGU1AE">
<h3 id="bokxMi"><strong>Big Ten Championship: Michigan -10.5 vs. Iowa:</strong></h3>
<p id="gjkr6n">Well now we get to see what Michigan looks like as a front-runner.</p>
<p id="o5WVMn">Both of these teams ended their regular season with four straight wins coming off devastating losses (or in Iowa’s case, two losses). Michigan is vying for their first Big 10 title in 17 years while Iowa looks for their first since….2004. They tied, but of course it was Michigan that went on to the Rose Bowl to face Vince Young and Texas. If you want an outright title, you have to go back all the way to 1985 for the Hawkeyes. </p>
<p id="MrTPDU">Despite those four straight wins, you get the feeling that these are two programs headed in opposite directions. The Wolverines took down big bad Ohio State last week and Hassan Hawkins had the most rushing touchdowns ever against the Buckeyes (5).</p>
<p id="6bRvpV">Meanwhile, Iowa was a slight underdog to 3-8 Nebraska last week and needed some helpful bounces to get the 7-point victory. Their other two wins were over Northwestern and Illinois in very lackluster, 10 points or less wins. </p>
<p id="48wiUA">Iowa’s defense will keep them in it, but Michigan wins and heads to the playoff. </p>
<p id="2iiEy0"><em><strong>Michigan 23 Iowa 16</strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="H4o4P6">
<h3 id="LJtEXE"><strong>SEC Championship: Georgia -6.5 vs. Alabama:</strong></h3>
<p id="LDTf8n">Clemson. UAB. South Carolina. @ Vanderbilt. Arkansas. @ Auburn. Kentucky. Florida. Missouri. @ Tennessee. Charleston Southern. @ Georgia Tech.</p>
<p id="LhbqvW">There has been a ton of talk this year about the performance of the Georgia Bulldogs this season, and with good reason. Their defense has given up 69 points in 12 games. Their offense scores 40.7 points per game with what many would deem a bus driver at quarterback and not much of a running game to speak of. </p>
<p id="jHmdeB">But look at that schedule – hell Texas probably wins 7 or 8 with that schedule.</p>
<p id="LyNJG6">And now they head on down to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium to face 11-1 Alabama. Now this isn’t the Alabama we are used to, but they still won 11 games and they still have the best quarterback in the country.</p>
<p id="SohW5m">And then consider that Georgia hasn’t beaten Alabama since 2007 – Nick Saban’s first year at Alabama. Georgia was very good last year, too and they still went to Tuscaloosa and lost by three scores, 41-24.</p>
<p id="poGiv1">Bryce Young is very good, but Alabama will have to be better at protecting him than they were against Auburn last week. The Tigers were able to get pressure with 4 or maybe 5 pass rushers, and the Bulldogs will be able to match that or even rush less. </p>
<p id="Pgjaqw">But something tells me that Nick Saban gets very surly when he is told his team has no chance.</p>
<p id="ZbuION"><em><strong>Alabama 24 Georgia 20</strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="fwUqCg">
<h3 id="eKe5ka"><strong>Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma State -5.5 vs. Baylor:</strong></h3>
<p id="oRKnop">Who knew that Mike Gundy running his record to 3-14 against Oklahoma would cause the implosion of OU football? Well done, Mike.</p>
<p id="HCpaf5">But that win doesn’t mean much if the Cowboys don’t follow it up this weekend with a win in what would be their first Big 12 title game win. </p>
<p id="rMxjLG">These teams met in Stillwater earlier this season, with Oklahoma State’s defense holding the Bears to 280 total yards, 3-of-15 on third down and holding Gerry Bohanon to less than 50% passing. The victory was so dominant that Spencer Sanders threw three interceptions in that game and the Cowboys still won by 10. </p>
<p id="dJBhtk">Will Jeff Grimes be able to solve that Oklahoma State defensive riddle? Because to me that feels like the key to this game. OSU almost got over their skis last weekend against Oklahoma when that game threatened to turn into a shoot-out. They aren’t made for that.</p>
<p id="oXS47o"><em><strong>Oklahoma State 23 Baylor 21</strong></em></p>
<p id="fJC5UG">For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for the Clark Field Collective. </p>
<p id="sGbHVU">Thank you again to all of you for taking the time to read and interact each and every week. I don’t know how often the ideas will hit me in the off-season, but I created a page to share some thoughts outside of this forum. Until next season. Hook ‘em. </p>
<p id="0TBfaY"><a href="https://mwcraig.substack.com">https://mwcraig.substack.com</a></p>
https://www.barkingcarnival.com/2021/12/2/22813451/the-week-that-will-be-championship-saturdayHornMafia2021-11-24T11:12:24-06:002021-11-24T11:12:24-06:00The Week That Will Be: Thanksgiving’s Version
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<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 20 Texas at West Virginia" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1PjRjsOSugjAI-VSG2Ys3zyPMWk=/0x0:4501x3001/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70188235/1236695080.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tis the season to give thanks....even this year.</p> <p id="0HCd64"><strong>Last Week: 4-2 ATS 6-0 SU</strong></p>
<p id="GiUdjW"><strong>For the Year: 36-36 (.500) (-$360) ATS 48-24 (.667) SU</strong></p>
<p id="X2yneC"><em><strong>Chalk (Oklahoma -3.5 vs. Iowa State): </strong></em></p>
<p id="HjYNbg">The Sooners managed to only ring up 96 yards passing and were 1-of-10 on third down but kind of always felt in control of this one, especially after Brock Purdy had a derp moment and fumbled the ball right to an Oklahoma defender for a touchdown. Then, for good measure he threw an interception inside the 10-yard line when they were driving to tie at the end of the game. No wonder Matt Campbell is looking for another job.</p>
<p id="0ctnD2"><em><strong>Bad Beat (Michigan State +19 @ Ohio State): </strong></em></p>
<p id="7AcnQU">This one was over in the second quarter as Ohio State led 35-0 twenty minutes into the game. C.J. Stroud was outstanding, completing 32-of-35 passes for 422 yards and six touchdowns while barely playing into the second half. It was the most lopsided game between top-seven teams since No. 1 Army beat No. 6 Penn 61-0 in 1945. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="6wDLgO">
<p id="wFeHGc">I am thankful for Bijan Robinson.</p>
<p id="g9XNTA">For entertainment purposes only…see you guys next year!!!</p>
<p id="mCpNt4">I kid, I kid.</p>
<p id="6cg44J">Mostly.</p>
<p id="YjPP47">Perhaps we’ll all look back one day at the 2021 season and either A.) be really thankful that it is over and done, or B.) it kept us grounded and reminded us what can happen when we let the winning tradition be entrusted to the weak and the timid.</p>
<p id="V6vgQM">And understand that I am calling out the machine that is Texas football with that last statement, not any particular section of it.</p>
<p id="fQyDvo">As my girl Taylor Swift sings, “And I know it’s long gone and that magic’s not here no more…And I might be okay but I’m not fine at all.”</p>
<p id="nzyuMb">Amen.</p>
<p id="2zCA7X">Senior day is always a bittersweet day not only on the Forty Acres but across the land. Congratulations to all of those current and former players that will graduate this semester or next – for all of the consternation about the performance of the football team, graduating from the University of Texas is a big deal and should be celebrated. </p>
<p id="31ZrQS">Be thankful of the opportunity that this sport and that your hard work gave you. You’ll carry that graduate designation on you for the rest of your life.</p>
<p id="rgOEwT">And for those that are being given another chance due to this crazy world that we live in, be thankful of that opportunity to get another chance to play the greatest game at the greatest University in the land – and for another opportunity to set up future employment.</p>
<p id="GIYjIi">For those that have decided or will decide that the University of Texas is not for them – that is fine, just make sure that you are making that decision for the right reasons and not temporary reasons. Be thankful of the opportunity you were given.</p>
<p id="q6ZIX7">For those coming into the program this year, be thankful for the chance to prove yourself at the highest level of competition, starting sometime when you are on campus. Realize that the University of Texas is a vehicle, not the destination. </p>
<p id="4yzqqk">To Steve Sarkisian, I promise that it does get easier. I know you are already thankful for where you are, you don’t need a reminder from me. You have defeated far worse.</p>
<p id="fIMGdg">And now, it is my turn.</p>
<p id="9uFdeM">I actually don’t recall when I first started writing this column, but it is around the 20-year mark on this forum and plenty of others. Whether I get 5 readers or 5,000 readers it doesn’t matter, I do it because I enjoy writing and I enjoy this sport that drives us absolutely mad at times. </p>
<p id="aMC40X">The last decade of Texas football has not been fun, but it has been fun interacting with you all. If I can write about a 10-2 team, then I should be able to write about a 2-10 team…the results are just fodder to be discussed.</p>
<p id="Z5BhLK">Thank you all for taking the time to read this column each and every week and for your kind comments. I really do consider your time when I decide to write six paragraphs on Oregon and Utah but sometimes I spill over and you are kind enough to keep coming back. </p>
<p id="ot6P33">And thank you to Barking Carnival for having me for another year. </p>
<p id="oTWGp6">Thank you to the New York Times Crossword…Evan Felker…Olivia Rodrigo…the makers of <em>Succession</em>…Larry David…Austin Beerworks…The Ticket…Augusta National Golf Club…guilty pleasure TV that I can’t even mention…HEB Curbside…DoorDash…just to mention a few.</p>
<p id="RWMiIh">To my tailgate family, it was great being back after a year off. It wasn’t the best year on the field and all of those damn 11:00 AM kickoffs, but I can’t imagine being anywhere else those <s>six</s> five days a year. Thanks for all the hard work each of you do, and thank you for your support. It is much appreciated.</p>
<p id="XuXF28">To my friends and family, thank you for your kinship and for just being there. From Austin to Dallas to Marble Falls to Colorado, it was all very much needed. Isn’t it fun to laugh a little bit?</p>
<p id="7Mi2S8">To my son Jackson…thank you for being you. You’re my everything.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="aKzQmg">
<h3 id="P2Me1w"><strong>Alabama -19.5 @ Auburn:</strong></h3>
<p id="iwhc8w">There are few rivalries in the sport better than the Iron Bowl. Lately it has been a back and forth game with these teams trading victories the last five years – which means that Alabama hasn’t won in Auburn since 2015. </p>
<p id="IlT3my">These two teams are headed in opposite directions right now, with Auburn entering this game with a three-game losing streak (their first since 2012) and blowing double-digit leads in the last two. Bryan Harsin is 6-5 in his first season with the Tigers and there is already some grumbling from those meddling Auburn boosters. Add to that there is some uncertainty about the COVID-19 vaccination status of Harsin with a school vaccination mandate coming into effect early next month. </p>
<p id="Z1Kgu1">On the field the Tigers lost their starting quarterback Bo Nix for the season a couple of weeks ago. His replacement is former LSU Tiger T.J. Finley, who was 2-3 as a starter for LSU last season and hasn’t inspired confidence in the beginning of his Auburn career.</p>
<p id="QY4qCw">Meanwhile Alabama has won five games in a row since that loss to Texas A&M and have already clinched a spot in the SEC title game. Of course they have aspirations of the college football playoff so there is little concern for them letting up. </p>
<p id="GeSJzw">Bryce Young made his Heisman statement last week, throwing for 559 yards against Arkansas, a new school record. He won’t do that this week but he’ll lead the Tide to an Iron Bowl win nonetheless. </p>
<p id="OlCHXs"><em><strong>Alabama 34 Auburn 17</strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="ZMeVRz">
<h3 id="sbfJ8I"><strong>Texas A&M -6.5 @ LSU:</strong></h3>
<p id="a1a9S6">Twenty-four months ago Ed Orgeron was preparing for the SEC Championship Game amid his offense breaking all sorts of records – this week he is cleaning out his desk of pork rinds and crab legs and preparing to coach his final game in Baton Rouge. </p>
<p id="JSxjYi">College football is very much a “what have you done for me lately” type of sport. But coming off a bad 2020 Orgeron made more staff changes and still only has two wins over Power 5 teams this season – Mississippi State and Florida.</p>
<p id="UuZIBF">Orgeron’s offense isn’t breaking records anymore, but Max Johnson hasn’t been terrible, throwing for 2,509 yards, 24 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions, but LSU’s defense has fallen to 57th in the country in SP+ defense…they can’t win those O/U of 38 type of games anymore, either. </p>
<p id="7SaM3O">Meanwhile the Aggies are a win here and a win in the bowl game for their first 10-win season since 2012, which ought to get Jimbo another 10-year extension. A&M brings the nation’s best scoring defense into this contest (well they are tied with Oklahoma State) and Zach Calzada is doing what LSU quarterbacks used to do – not lose games for them (for the most part).</p>
<p id="VnKwle">A win here makes LSU bowl eligible but a loss gives them their first losing season since 1999 – I don’t see them avoiding that.</p>
<p id="iWWRNT"><em><strong>Texas A&M 27 LSU 23</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="yPHIE9"><strong>Ohio State -8.5 @ Michigan:</strong></h3>
<p id="PVcoKF">You have to feel a bit for Michigan.</p>
<p id="EpHti1">They are off to a 10-1 start, one of the better starts of the Jim Harbaugh era and Ohio State looks very vulnerable early in the season against Oregon and just a few weeks ago against Nebraska. And then they go out and do THAT to Michigan State.</p>
<p id="St2dLt">Here is where I am obligated to remind you that Harbaugh has yet to beat Ohio State as the Buckeyes have now won 8 in a row in this series. It is not just Harbaugh, however, as the Wolverines have won just ONCE since 2004 and twice since 2001. They haven’t been close, either with the last one score loss coming back in 2016.</p>
<p id="GnHwxy">And of course I am obligated to show you these stat lines: Harbaugh is 2-13 against AP top-10 teams and just 3-9 against Michigan State and Ohio State.</p>
<p id="Bb3xkC">Now this is where I mention that Ohio State hasn’t lost a conference game since October of 2018 – a streak of 31 in a row. The Buckeyes’ offense has been on point, as they have scored 50+ points 6 times in their last 8 games.</p>
<p id="m62s13">They meet a Michigan defense that has held 9 opponents to less than 20 points. The Wolverines have been smothering offenses, but we have heard that before.</p>
<p id="sQ5d7x">Michigan running backs Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum have combined for 1,841 yards and 23 touchdowns this season – their best bet might be to let those two work and keep the Ohio State offense off the field – if they don’t fall down quickly first.</p>
<p id="881NjN">Michigan can absolutely win this game – but until they beat the streak, you have to ride it.</p>
<p id="qLSZ8j"><em><strong>Ohio State 34 Michigan 24</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="RrDFPB"><strong>Texas Tech @ Baylor -14.5:</strong></h3>
<p id="LHtwfG">Texas Tech was shut out last week for the first time since 1997, when they went up to Lincoln and were shut out by #2 Nebraska, 29-0.</p>
<p id="d47NUs">The Red Raiders are bowl eligible for the first since 2017 (that must be pretty nice), but they have now lost three of four, with that one win an out of nowhere win over Iowa State in Lubbock a couple of weeks ago. Donovan Smith is the quarterback du jour in Lubbock these days, he has thrown for 667 yards and 4 touchdowns with 2 interceptions in his last three starts.</p>
<p id="nhSn9p">Baylor can clinch a spot in their second Big 12 title game in three years (with two different head coaches!) with a victory here, which would be a tremendous accomplishment after finishing 2-7 last year. </p>
<p id="imAmgg">Quarterback Gerry Bohanon is doubtful after suffering a hamstring injury last week in their victory against Kansas State – freshman Blake Shapen replaced Bohanon and did an admirable job (what a concept!), completing 16-of-21 passes, rushing for 44 yards and not turning the ball over. Baylor’s duo of Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner will surpass 2,000 rushing yards in this game, what an accomplishment. </p>
<p id="Rvoyhu"><em><strong>Baylor 24 Texas Tech 13</strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="pmRWBW">
<h3 id="QGpSdL"><strong>Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State -4:</strong></h3>
<p id="LmisjH">Okay, we can talk about Oklahoma State’s defense (the 13.3 ppg they are allowing on defense is the lowest for a Big 12 team since Ndamukong Suh’s 2009 Nebraska team, or their shutout of Texas Tech being their first ever of a Big 12 opponent, we can talk about their four-game winning streak in which they have allowed 23 points total, and we can even talk about how they have clinched a spot in their first ever Big 12 championship game.</p>
<p id="Ij91H7">But can we talk about Mike Gundy’s 2-14 record against Oklahoma? Including six losses in a row, with only one score game in that stretch?</p>
<p id="m0SO3y">Oklahoma State is clearly the better team on paper here, but games are played on a field and in the heads of players and coaches. We’ll see if they can overcome that psychological hurdle. </p>
<p id="OZ1vqr"><em><strong>Oklahoma State 27 Oklahoma 20</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="SIUhkG"><strong>Kansas State @ Texas -3:</strong></h3>
<p id="9hYjJ9">I’m not sure what I was expecting out of this Texas football season, but what I didn’t expect was it to be ending with the Longhorns trying to break a six-game losing streak in front of possibly about 50,000 fans.</p>
<p id="vIGf2G">It is always sports depressing when your team’s season ends on Thanksgiving weekend, but that is where we find ourselves this year, and with it we find a very beatable opponent coming to Austin on Friday.</p>
<p id="1LzqNo">I am old enough to remember when Kansas State had a jinx over Texas athletics – but if there is one thing Tom Herman managed to do on the 40 Acres it was to end the Wizard jinx – the Horns finally have a winning record against KSU all-time with their 69-31 victory last year in Manhattan. All in all, the Horns have won four in a row in this series and the last time KSU won in Austin was ten years ago – 2011.</p>
<p id="8WP3ur">The Wildcats started Big 12 play with an 0-3 record and then won four in a row before dropping one to Baylor at home last weekend. The main casualty of that game was quarterback Skylar Thompson, who is doubtful for this one. Thompson is a major upgrade over the other KSU options. </p>
<p id="2nBCM8">Will Howard or Jaren Lewis would get the start if Thompson can’t go. Together they are barely completing 50% of their passes for a little over 400 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Howard can run a little bit as the Longhorns found out last season when he ran for 79 yards against them.</p>
<p id="wGGhSy">And of course the KSU offense orbits around Round Rock native Deuce Vaughn, who leads the team in rushing and receptions for the season. In total Vaughn has 1,579 total yards and 17 touchdowns – no other Kansas State skill player has more than 2.</p>
<p id="393fng">The backbone of Chris Klieman’s Wildcat squad is their defense – it currently ranks 23rd in the country in SP+ defense and have only allowed more than 24 points three times this season – all losses.</p>
<p id="3Rem7X">Felix Anudike-Uzomah has 11 sacks on the season but 7 of those came in two games – he hasn’t had one the last two weeks. </p>
<p id="ZfZPrB">We’ll learn a lot about Sarkisian’s team this week – which of course will immediately be torn down and rebuilt kind of like they did to Stanford Stadium a few years ago when the bulldozers were warming up in the parking lot as the game ended. Perhaps it is the eternal optimist inside of me, but I think they end this season with a win – because how depressing would it be to go into the off-season not having won since the first weekend of October?</p>
<p id="8tAcKy"><em><strong>Texas 31 Kansas State 20</strong></em></p>
<p id="N5lYn6">For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for your expanded Christmas budget this year with no bowl trip to plan. </p>
https://www.barkingcarnival.com/2021/11/24/22800733/the-week-that-will-be-thanksgivings-version-texas-longhorns-footballHornMafia2021-11-18T07:20:00-06:002021-11-18T07:20:00-06:00The Week That Will Be: Til Gabriel Blows His Horn
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<img alt="Kansas v Texas" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ldttAtscf6yP9i2SGzhVP89AWsQ=/0x2:6313x4211/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70159123/1353140825.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The unthinkable happened. Again. The good news is there is nowhere to go but up.</p> <p id="L3U3E5"><strong>Last Week: 3-3 ATS 3-3 SU</strong></p>
<p id="0LlN0P"><strong>For the Year: 32-34 (.485) (-$520) ATS 42-24 (.636) SU</strong></p>
<p id="A7YfhH"><em><strong>Chalk (Ole Miss +2.5 vs. Texas A&M): </strong></em></p>
<p id="ACS3W4">I posed the question last week if Zach Calzada could really win five games in a row and the answer was no. Calzada threw two interceptions, including a pick six with just a few minutes remaining to seal the victory for Lane Kiffin and the Rebels. Ole Miss had more than 400 yards of offense <em>in the first half</em> but the Aggie defense kept them out of the endzone for the most part and tightened up in the second half to get A&M back in the game. One troubling stat for the Aggies offense – they have scored touchdowns on just 47% of their red zone trips, last in the SEC. </p>
<p id="Fw39Z5"><em><strong>Bad Beat (Oklahoma -5.5 @ Baylor):</strong></em></p>
<p id="sEL6Df">Well obviously it is Texas losing to Kansas, but more on them in a minute. Caleb Williams and Spencer Rattler combined for less than 200 passing yards and completed barely 50% of their passes last weekend as the Bears toppled the Sooners. Williams also threw two interceptions. Baylor rushed for 296 yards to Oklahoma’s 78 and held Oklahoma to 2 of 9 on third down. It was the fewest points for the Sooners since 2014.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="WpUhn1">
<p id="iWDWcY"><em>“You have to answer for Santino, Carlo…”</em></p>
<p id="wIN7VD">The schools hadn’t met since December of 2005. That was probably better for the psyche of the defeated that day, since they lost by nearly 10 touchdowns.</p>
<p id="3rPuZA">Texas traveled to Boulder, Colorado on an October night for a matchup with the Buffaloes. The Horns were ranked fifth in the country, the Buffs were unranked. It wasn’t much of a game, Colt McCoy found Chris Ogbonnaya on a checkdown on a busted play and Ogbonnaya made something out of nothing, racing 65 yards down the sideline for a 7-0 lead, a lead that the Horns would not relinquish on route to a 38-14 win to move to 5-0. </p>
<p id="7FhG1M">A matchup of undefeateds with Oklahoma in Dallas awaited the next week. Ogbonnaya would factor into that one as well.</p>
<p id="PTyFkj">721 miles to the east of the foothills of the Rocky Mountains sits Ames, Iowa. </p>
<p id="EFUQbm">In the middle of Ames sits Iowa State University, which just the season prior had hired Gene Chizik to run its football program. Chizik had a rough first year as the Cyclones finished 3-9. It was a slight disappointment even in Ames, which hadn’t seen a double digit win football team in well, ever. Dan McCarney had preceded Chizik in Ames, however, and he at least won 9 games once and 7 a handful of times and took them to bowl games, something they hadn’t been to since the days Elvis Presley ran the Billboard charts. </p>
<p id="aA46V7">On that same afternoon that Texas soundly defeated Colorado, the Kansas Jayhawks visited Ames. The Jayhawks were riding high the year prior, finishing the season 12-1, including a win in the Orange Bowl. The Jayhawks finished 7th in the country that year (they had been as high as #2 earlier in the year), so this year excitement was high.</p>
<p id="L9eVn1">That was tempered a bit by a loss to #19 South Florida by three points, but the Jayhawks still sat at 3-1 and ranked 16th in the country. They fell behind 20-0 that dreary afternoon, but they stormed back and held on to a 35-33 win behind the 319 passing yards and three touchdowns from Todd Reesing. </p>
<p id="j5p8u0">That was the last Jayhawks road conference win until this past Saturday night.</p>
<p id="MYSAhw">One and a half more years of Mark Mangino. Two years of Turner Gill. Three years of Charlie Weis. Four years of David Beaty. Two years of Les Miles.</p>
<p id="mSm2rJ">And three quarters of a season from Lance Leipold.</p>
<p id="zjJDJ8">157 losses. 56 conference road losses.</p>
<p id="hY9SRi">Three full presidential terms.</p>
<p id="t3nyu0">4,788 days.</p>
<p id="Jl0oLC">And now their streak is over. </p>
<p id="iZo2mj">Saturday was about as close as you can get to Sonny Corleone at the tollbooth on the Jones Beach Causeway.</p>
<p id="Bzz9Sg">Look around, this is rock bottom. Oh hey, Nebraska, didn’t see you over there. </p>
<p id="8vxWHV">We’ve talked about the talent issues ad nauseum here and elsewhere, but Texas has enough talent in their second string to stay within three touchdowns of Kansas in a half. </p>
<p id="kLBE6i">I believe what we are seeing here is a perfect storm of bad personnel, bad defensive schemes, an average to below average quarterback room and zero vocal leadership in the locker room. Throw that all in a pot and you get bad football stew and apparently a recipe to lose to Kansas for the second time in five meetings. </p>
<p id="NIe3dM">We all love our University and our city but apparently players get to Austin and unfurl a “Mission Accomplished” banner in their dorm room because no further improvement far too often no further improvement is seen. Senior day is next week at DKR - Texas Memorial Stadium and for about the tenth year in a row it is a senior class that most of us just shrug and shoo out the door like a guest that has worn out their welcome to usher in the new class.</p>
<p id="ifdzp1">I’m not sure that any of us, including Steve Sarkisian, saw this season going off the rails like this. But here we are.</p>
<p id="Ls6Nh6">The good news is that there are recent success stories in one year turnarounds.</p>
<p id="3bbmwZ">Michigan last season was 2-4. This season they are 9-1. Michigan State went from 2-5 to 9-1. And here in our own backyard Baylor was 2-7 and is now 8-2. </p>
<p id="R5deiJ">All three play outstanding defense. All three have bus drivers at quarterback.</p>
<p id="bO9Ys9">In last year’s season finale in Waco, Baylor was run over by Oklahoma State in a lifeless McLane Stadium 45-3. The Bears appeared to be going through the motions that day, and some wondered if Aranda was in over his head.</p>
<p id="7Id5Ll">Aranda went to work. He saw an offensive staff that had zero chemistry and even worse results (near the bottom in every significant offensive category in the conference) and replaced them with integral parts from a highly successful BYU offense. </p>
<p id="vEip8z">Aranda also took that opportunity to examine all logistics of the Baylor program, from how their meetings are run to how practices are run. He also retooled the strength and conditioning program.</p>
<p id="tupAcN">Perhaps Nick Saban at Alabama does that top to bottom assessment every year as well, but I’m guessing not many programs bother with it. But with a move to the SEC imminent, Texas cannot afford to wallow another year in the college football abyss. </p>
<p id="JJjbtb">Steve Sarkisian needs to spend as much time examining his program this off-season as he does the Xs and Os, and perhaps some help needs to be thrown his way in the way of administration as well. </p>
<p id="BSVad7">Chris Del Conte is fond of saying Team Texas when someone on social media compliments him for his handling of the Texas program. This off-season needs to be the same all hands on deck mentality for this football program, because when you lose to Kansas in year one of your tenure the initial data points on the overall assessment of your coaching staff are not good.</p>
<p id="SN0N9x">Whether it is staff changes or coaching changes or coaching philosophy changes or it is more help being brought in as analysts or an entire analytics department is hired – get it done and spare no expense because the importance of this off-season cannot be overstated. </p>
<p id="EOMzJt">That off-season starts in about 10 days. Louisiana-Monroe visits in 290 days. Alabama comes to town in 297 days. UTSA and Jeff Traylor come to town in 304 days.</p>
<p id="KeC8Nu"><em>“In this world there comes a time when the most humble of men, if he keeps his eyes open, can take his revenge on the most powerful.”</em> – Mario Puzo, <em>The Godfather</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="U3GbHt">
<h3 id="Mc3WSv"><strong>Oregon @ Utah -3:</strong></h3>
<p id="uA8XXo">This is the first of likely two meetings between these two schools this season, and Oregon needs to win both to be in the College Football Playoff conversation. </p>
<p id="GoL9Fq">The Ducks had that gigantic win over the Buckeyes in Columbus back in September but have had some weird wins since then and a loss to Stanford that looks really bad right now. You have to wonder if their quarterback play is enough to get it done without another loss along the way. </p>
<p id="TnmrYq">Former Texas quarterback Cam Rising is the starter in Utah now, and he’s doing a good enough job – 1,752 yards with 14 touchdowns to only two interceptions. He’s also added four touchdowns on the ground. The Utes had two early season losses to BYU and San Diego State but since have won 6 of 7 with their lone loss an 8-point loss at Oregon State.</p>
<p id="L9b9G7">Utah is usually tough at home, I think they get it done here.</p>
<p id="StkijK"><em><strong>Utah 31 Oregon 24</strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="j48Q3L">
<h3 id="iXCS2C"><strong>Arkansas @ Alabama -20.5:</strong></h3>
<p id="iXOW2R">Arkansas hasn’t beaten Alabama since 2006 – not coincidentally the year before Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa. You have to go further back to find when the Razorbacks defeated the Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium – 2003.</p>
<p id="DhKd7D">Even more problematic for the Razorbacks has been that the last two meetings against the Tide they have only ended up with a combined 10 points – they simply don’t have the firepower to make Alabama guess, and Alabama doesn’t get bullied around.</p>
<p id="jfnzB7">Arkansas started the season 4-0 and then dropped three in a row and have now won three in a row, but that streak ends in this one, it is just a matter of how much they can score this year. </p>
<p id="XAuYsy">Alabama clinches a spot in the SEC Championship Game. </p>
<p id="UKiysw"><em><strong>Alabama 41 Arkansas 10</strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="brn1EP">
<h3 id="cMXP9q"><strong>Michigan State @ Ohio State -19:</strong></h3>
<p id="BOjgqs">This marks the fifth time that these two schools meet with them both ranked in the AP Top-10. Interestingly enough Michigan State is 3-1 in the previous four meetings, with the two latest wins in 2013 and 2015. </p>
<p id="ZIlUMK">That is the good news. The bad news is that Ohio State has won five in a row in this series, and Michigan State hasn’t scored more than 12 points against Ohio State since 2016, totaling 31 points total in the last four match-ups. Last year’s game in East Lansing was particularly disastrous as Ohio State came out ahead 52-12.</p>
<p id="Wmc5M1">The Buckeyes are coming off a demolishing of Purdue as they scored on their first eight drives of the game (seven touchdowns). C.J. Stroud has now passed for at least 300 yards in six of his last seven games. </p>
<p id="8zkVwO">That’s the offense. On defense the Buckeyes gave up 481 yards and 31 points to Purdue. Most of that was in garbage time, but with Ohio State’s defensive troubles earlier in the year, that is something to keep an eye on in this game. </p>
<p id="OGoHTN">Kenneth Walker III comes into this game seeking his 8th 100-yard effort of the season but comes into this one nursing a sore ankle. They’ll need every bit of him to knock off the Buckeyes.</p>
<p id="NOikD3">Ohio State has won 28 straight Big 10 games. They’ll get 29 here.</p>
<p id="YoqGic"><em><strong>Ohio State 31 Michigan State 20</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="CVy6JQ"><strong>Baylor PK @ Kansas State:</strong></h3>
<p id="SWo6gp">Baylor has owned this series of late, they have won three in a row (the Wildcats were one of two victories the Bears had last year) and 7 of 9. </p>
<p id="JDml3L">But Kansas State has won four games in a row since starting conference play 0-3. Their best victory in that timespan was Texas Tech, but give them credit for defeating who is on the schedule. In fact, if they win this one and win at Texas next week, they are a bowl win away from finishing the season with 10 wins.</p>
<p id="uu8mTM">K-State is winning games like they usually do, with efficient quarterback play (Skylar Thompson has completed 74% of his passes during this streak), a strong running game (Deuce Vaughn at least 100 yards in three straight games) and a tough defense (32nd in the country in SP+ defense). </p>
<p id="MjLM50">Enter the Spiderman meme here, because Baylor is winning games with much the same formula, although Gerry Bohanon now has six interceptions in his last four games after not throwing one in the first six games of the year. But Abram Smith has rushed for at least 125 yards in four straight games and their defense is ranked even higher in SP+ (15th).</p>
<p id="p12fmc">Baylor plays much better at home but they get the win here with a little more defense than the Wildcats.</p>
<p id="9auGtN"><em><strong>Baylor 24 Kansas State 17</strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="0D83XL">
<h3 id="JZTGHf"><strong>Iowa State @ Oklahoma -3.5:</strong></h3>
<p id="EHe1P5">Every year I look at the all-time series record between these two in amazement – Oklahoma leads 77-7-2. They met twice last season with Iowa State winning in Ames in October, sorry Brocktober but the Sooners of course won the Big 12 title game in Arlington in December when Brock Purdy threw three interceptions, including one in the waning moments inside the Oklahoma 10-yard line.</p>
<p id="Mu2May">Both teams are coming off losses and both are desperate for a win. Oklahoma needs a win to stay relevant in the Big 12 race, while Iowa State needs a win to avoid their fifth loss of what was supposed to be a much better season.</p>
<p id="ZdGLnc">It has been close lately, with the last six meetings between these two all decided by 10 points or less. This one will be close, but in Norman I give the Sooners the edge.</p>
<p id="Mp9MzE"><em><strong>Oklahoma 28 Iowa State 23</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="ZH7ixT"><strong>Texas @ West Virginia -2.5:</strong></h3>
<p id="KExzwc">I can give you a whole lot of stats here, and I will out of obligation…</p>
<p id="rIf099">The Mountaineers started the season with a loss to Maryland (how embarrassing is that), then won over some school named Long Island University (I think they advertise on Channel 55 during Gomer Pyle reruns) and Virginia Tech. They hit some stumbles in conference play, sitting at 2-5, just like your Longhorns.</p>
<p id="yTES2F">West Virginia is a dreadful offensive team that has scored only 140 points in 7 conference games, and that was with the very unexpected 38 point outburst against Iowa State in Morgantown. Jarret Doege threw for 370 yards that day, which was about 15% of his season output. He also has nearly as many interceptions (10) as touchdowns (13), and yes that is only 13 touchdowns despite starting 10 games.</p>
<p id="EYg98m">Running back Leddie Brown is their offensive star, but only has 109 yards rushing in the Mountaineers’ current two-game losing streak. He also has three fumbles in his last three games.</p>
<p id="WtGqe9">Defensively they rank 54th in the country in SP+ defense, but their defense isn’t as good as last year when they finished first in the conference in scoring defense and total defense. They did hold Oklahoma (and Spencer Rattler) to 16 points and held Texas Tech to 23 points, but gave up 45 to Baylor and 34 to Kansas State just last weekend.</p>
<p id="AQX5Hn">So yes, this is a very winnable game for a replacement-level team. But as we found out last week we have to factor in giving a shit for the Longhorns, and you are free to judge for yourself what that will be sitting at 4-6 with a noon local time start in the mountains of West Virginia, a thousand miles from home.</p>
<p id="iCrjXL">Can they win? Will they win? Sure. No.</p>
<p id="Xaj4A8"><em><strong>West Virginia 28 Texas 24</strong></em></p>
<p id="X0YGbV">For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for basketball season.</p>
https://www.barkingcarnival.com/2021/11/18/22788670/the-week-that-will-be-til-gabriel-blows-his-hornHornMafia2021-11-11T07:25:00-06:002021-11-11T07:25:00-06:00The Week That Will Be: Wayward Sons
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<img alt="Texas v Iowa State" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/BT19ApICM5gcJPUd57K26b5KhC0=/0x125:3800x2658/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70126437/1236403606.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Horns have been dust in the wind for a month — it is time to get it right. </p> <p id="eyJ3oQ"><strong>Last Week: 4-2 ATS 5-1 SU</strong></p>
<p id="Oq9AES"><strong>For the Year: 29-31 (.483) (-$490) ATS 39-21 (.650) SU</strong></p>
<p id="L2yqpy"><em><strong>Chalk (LSU +28.5 @ Alabama):</strong></em></p>
<p id="aprGGd">The good news for Alabama is that they won, keeping alive their hope for reaching the SEC title game. The bad news is that they had more penalties (9) and almost had as many sacks on Bryce Young (5) as they did rushing yards (6). That is their lowest output in school history for a non-bowl game. Their streak of scoring at least 30 points ended at 34 games as well. But they won.</p>
<p id="VXiJ2d"><em><strong>Bad Beat (Auburn +4.5 @ Texas A&M): </strong></em></p>
<p id="zRpvGN">Texas A&M’s defense held Auburn to 4 of 16 on third down attempts and 1 of 3 on fourth down. They also sacked Bo Nix four times, held the Tigers to 3.2 yards per game and scored the only touchdown of the game. If only the Aggies had a competent offense…</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="GlYgdU">
<p id="IjQhQU">Remember how when Joshua Moore pulled in a 48-yard touchdown pass from Casey Thompson to go up 28-7 near the end of the first quarter against Oklahoma we dared to dream? </p>
<p id="BHvohP">We dared to dream that Texas was going to defeat Oklahoma, always a treat in itself and one that hadn’t been realized in two years. We dared to dream that Texas was going to be in the catbird seat in the Big 12 race – effectively up two games on Oklahoma. We dared to dream that the Steve Sarkisian era was not only going to be wildly successful, but that it was a year ahead of schedule.</p>
<p id="f7HzEn">But yet sitting here a solid month and a few days later, Texas still hasn’t had a win since before that game.</p>
<p id="Ll8PQI">It was easy to dismiss Oklahoma as it happens and this team just wasn’t ready to win yet. And then Oklahoma State happened and while it certainly wasn’t a good thing we talked ourselves into the Big 12 still being in sight. And then Baylor. And now Iowa State.</p>
<p id="MntnOV">Remember back in that first quarter in Dallas when football was fun?</p>
<p id="sezoby">Football isn’t fun these days, and a bump in the road on the way to football riches now suddenly finds the car in the ditch and careening towards the lake at the bottom of the hill. </p>
<p id="4VXbGc">We’ve talked about the talent issues on this team, and if you are reading this website you are smarter than the FS1 broadcast in that you don’t rely purely on recruiting rankings from yesteryear to tell you how much talent is on this team. </p>
<p id="x2VrG4">You look at the roster and you look at the individual players and you look at the talent on the other team and you see the disconnect, a disconnect without a great quarterback to cover it all up. </p>
<p id="aDuWTl">But you also know that this team is more talented than 4-8 or 5-7 or 6-6, also.</p>
<p id="oNva5t">And yet Texas can’t keep firing coaches and expecting a magic elixir, either. </p>
<p id="IMcRDV">Yet someone (or more) will likely be the fall guy for the 2021 season, but don’t look for it to be at the coordinator level. You can’t judge a coaching staff by the first year (and half of that a COVID year at that) but the initial data points are not all good.</p>
<p id="84M2sG">Credit Sark for scheming themselves to leads. Let’s be honest, I know life as a college football fan is very binary and things are either really good or really terrible, but leading Oklahoma 28-7 and leading Oklahoma State 17-3 and leading Baylor 21-10 are accomplishments. No, we’re not going to give moral half victory trophies and throw parades for that, but we can see that the potential is there – it just doesn’t have a closer.</p>
<p id="hwOnoi">So where do the Longhorns go from here?</p>
<p id="hFXqMN">Everyone’s answer appears to be portal, portal, portal. And more portal. But the portal won’t be the answer to everything that ails this team, some of it will have to be home grown talent, and talent that is developed from one year to the next, which has been a rarity in these parts for the past twelve years. </p>
<p id="SjgPWO">And some of it will have to be evolution in the coaching staff. You hear it in business all the time, if you are the smartest man in the room, find another room. Texas needs to become Alabama West with the former head coaches as analysts, and the support staff needs to be the size of your first class in the UTC. </p>
<p id="jtmrVa">Forces need to align to make Texas the most attractive in terms of NIL. </p>
<p id="kFaUf4">And a plan needs to be laid out to join the SEC and how to prepare the program to be a SEC program. At this point hopefully in 2023 at the earliest. </p>
<p id="ag1RGo">I believe that the pieces are in place at levels from the Board of Regents down to the University President to the Athletic Director to the head coach to turn this ship around, but this is a tougher rebuild than any of us realized.</p>
<p id="NpFAiU">I’m tired of it. You’re tired of it. You have to go to Thanksgiving dinner in a couple of weeks and get grilled about this thing. Bo Davis is damn sure tired of it. </p>
<p id="BVmjSD">But as Davis so gently put it this week, if you don’t have the stomach for it, get out, because it is going to be nothing but hard work that gets Texas out of this abyss.</p>
<p id="QxF6kO">Vince Young isn’t walking through that door. But the next one just might be.</p>
<p id="uwcfTg">And this program needs to be prepared for it when it happens. </p>
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<h3 id="FeiMeh"><strong>Michigan -1 @ Penn State:</strong></h3>
<p id="n4PlCi">Penn State comes into this one hoping to play the spoiler role with their Big 10 championship chances looking slim. With a win here or later in the season in their matchup with Michigan State, they can keep other teams at home if they can’t go themselves. </p>
<p id="6tWrxT">Quarterback Sean Clifford broke out of a mini slump in a win against Maryland last week, throwing for 363 yards and three touchdowns after throwing two touchdowns and three interceptions during their three-game losing streak prior to that win. </p>
<p id="y7Xl0C">He’ll have to face a Michigan defense in this one that comes into this game allowing 17 points or less in 7 of their 9 games this year. </p>
<p id="bpc32h">The Wolverines haven’t won in State College since 2015, but they’ll do it here. </p>
<p id="pEZpQI"><em><strong>Michigan 30 Penn State 23</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="J4iLMu"><strong>NC State @ Wake Forest -2:</strong></h3>
<p id="glYqlM">Things were looking rosy last week this time for Wake Forest – they were 8-0 and had cracked the top-10 of the College Football Playoff rankings. Then they ran into North Carolina and were dealt a 58-55 loss. Those pesky non-conference games. </p>
<p id="K7vE7P">The loss was a setback for the Demon Deacons, but I’m thinking they’ll still take where they are, as they were just 4-5 last year and haven’t lost less than 5 games in Dave Clawson’s previous 7 seasons in Winston-Salem. But they have had some success there as they are seeking their sixth straight bowl game. </p>
<p id="uO1eWY">North Carolina State has won 6 of 7 and come into this one having held their last two opponents to 27 points combined. They’ll have their hands full in this one, as Wake Forest sophomore quarterback Sam Hartman is producing as well as anyone in the country, with 2,873 yards, 27 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. </p>
<p id="pTFT6Z">This one will go a long way towards deciding the ACC Atlantic – Wake gets the win.</p>
<p id="XyN4dT"><em><strong>Wake Forest 34 NC State 28</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="CASq3v"><strong>Texas A&M -2.5 @ Ole Miss:</strong></h3>
<p id="6LQmgP">The same Aggies that struggled against Colorado and lost to Arkansas and Mississippi State in very lackluster fashion all of the sudden have managed to win four straight and stand in position to go to their first SEC Championship game if they win out (@ Ole Miss, @ LSU) and Auburn upsets Alabama in the Iron Bowl…not outside the realm of possibility. </p>
<p id="gWTJ08">The Aggies managed to dominate a SEC West game last week they didn’t score an offensive touchdown…but that was against and up and down Bo Nix, can they do the same against Heisman candidate Matt Corral (2,527 yards 16 TD 2 INT plus 528 yards 10 TDs rushing) ?</p>
<p id="QxBgWx">Texas A&M has only allowed a total of 31 points in their three wins since Alabama but they’ll have a tougher test in this one as they’ll face an Ole Miss offense that opened the season by scoring at least 42 points in their first four victories…but have failed to score more than 31 since (3-1 in that span). </p>
<p id="3r3Xvu">The Rebels have been dealing with injuries on the offensive side of the ball – mainly with their interior line and wide receiver. If they can run the ball, they have a chance to beat the Aggies. If not – then Matt Corral will have to go hero ball, and we’re not entirely sure he is healthy enough to do that right now. </p>
<p id="FgEEMG">But eh, Zach Calzada can’t win five in a row, can he?</p>
<p id="bugcBS"><em><strong>Ole Miss 37 Texas A&M 28 </strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="MhfA4t"><strong>Iowa State -10.5 @ Texas Tech:</strong></h3>
<p id="ihKEJc">Iowa State’s chances of winning the Big 12 improved last week with the loss by Baylor…but will go right back down again if they drop another road game.</p>
<p id="MIr5CN">There probably isn’t much concern there, the Cyclones have won five in a row in this series, and all five of those have been by at least 9 points.</p>
<p id="lCDFEu">Texas Tech has a new man in charge as Joey McGuire will take the reins in Lubbock. McGuire led Cedar Hill High School to three state championships, 12 consecutive playoff appearances and a 141-42 record. He has a chance to be a great hire for the Red Raiders…but won’t help them much this game. </p>
<p id="MynG6d"><em><strong>Iowa State 41 Texas Tech 30</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="0hDt8z"><strong>Oklahoma -5.5 @ Baylor:</strong></h3>
<p id="gl0Xif">There was a time, from 2011 to 2014, in which Baylor won three of four from the Sooners. Since then, the Sooners have won all 7 matchups. For the most part, however, they have been mostly close games, especially in Waco, where the margin of victory in the last three games there has been 3, 8 and 10 points.</p>
<p id="wBhlRq">Oklahoma quarterback Caleb Wiliams has been the belle of the ball lately in college football. All he has done has thrown for 1,189 yards and 14 touchdowns with only one interception to date. He has also run for 288 yards and 4 touchdowns. </p>
<p id="E8GHBc">He’s done so well, in fact, that the Sooners are 3-1 ATS with Wiliams under center after compiling a 1-4 record ATS with Spencer Rattler. </p>
<p id="AAR8Gd">Baylor had a major setback on their way to the conference championship game last week when they lost to a bad TCU team, allowing them to amass 562 yards. That is an aberration for them but they cannot afford to get into any shootout with the Sooners. </p>
<p id="n6qgT5">I would expect Baylor to come out and try to slow and make the Sooners get impatient. With that comes low scores.</p>
<p id="mY8fbm"><em><strong>Oklahoma 31 Baylor 24</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="O4jjFd"><strong>Kansas @ Texas -30.5:</strong></h3>
<p id="zUDpiq">Thank the lord for a date with Kansas, right? </p>
<p id="wvg5AS">But then you remember that Kansas has won only one game against Texas since the formation of the Big 12 and that was in 2016. That was in Lawrence, you say, but remember in 2019 that Texas needed a last second loooooong field goal to win by less than those three points. </p>
<p id="I6jr9Q">Texas enters this game with a 4-game losing streak, but the Jayhawks line up on Saturday holding an 8-game losing streak, tied for the longest in the nation with Arkansas State and Florida International. </p>
<p id="IGraLd">There are questions about which quarterback Texas will play (or if they will play both), there are questions about the health and status of Bijan Robinson and there is the question of which wide receiver (if any) will step up and fill the gap left by the departure of Joshua Moore to the transfer portal. </p>
<p id="DrxVkI">This might shock you but Kansas doesn’t feature much offensively. Their starting quarterback, Jason Bean, might miss this game with an injury and if he does he won’t get a chance to add on to the 6 touchdown passes he has on the year. </p>
<p id="sfeUfO">If he doesn’t go it will be talented sophomore Jalon Daniels under center. Daniels played in a number of games last year, throwing 152 passes with only one touchdown pass.</p>
<p id="FhyPpc">Somehow their defense (ranked 125th of 130 FBS teams in SP+) is worse than their offense (ranked 118th).</p>
<p id="orYtcE">I mean I’m trying to come up with ways Texas doesn’t cover here but they are that bad.</p>
<p id="63LFYL"><em><strong>Texas 48 Kansas 13</strong></em></p>
<p id="V7F2dH">For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Wurstfest. </p>
https://www.barkingcarnival.com/2021/11/11/22775775/the-week-that-will-be-wayward-sons-texas-longhorns-footballHornMafia2021-11-04T07:30:00-05:002021-11-04T07:30:00-05:00The Week That Will Be: Deja BU
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Texas at Baylor" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GkXYY1lWqCxhDoFcUIW88rGQhN4=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70092355/usa_today_17059037.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Stephen Spillman-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Texas lost and even the damn animal kingdom is pissed about it. Who is going to do something about it?</p> <p id="OoZYcU"><strong>Last Week: 2-4 ATS 3-3 SU</strong></p>
<p id="dQACrk"><strong>For the Year: 25-29 (.463) (-$650) ATS 34-20 (.630) SU</strong></p>
<p id="E1sw85"><em><strong>Chalk(Georgia -14.5 vs. Florida):</strong></em></p>
<p id="TVWJl4">I’m going to throw a lot out there at you, try to keep up. Florida and Dan Mullen (the next head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders) are now 2-7 against Top 25 opponents since 2019 – and 4-7 in their last 11 overall. Georgia’s defense has allowed 5 touchdowns all year – and have scored 3. They have outscored opponents 303-53 on the year – those 53 points allowed are the fewest in eight games by a Power 5 team since Florida State in 1993. </p>
<p id="AqAsVx"><em><strong>Bad Beat (Michigan -4 @ Michigan State): </strong></em></p>
<p id="HcZ8sr">Kenneth Walker III might have punched his ticket for the Heisman ceremony in New York with 5 touchdowns against Michigan, the most ever by a Wolverines opponent. Let’s all update our Jim Harbaugh stat books – he is now 2-13 against top-10 teams at Michigan and 3-9 against Michigan State (3-4) and Ohio State (0-5). Michigan as a program has now lost 23 of 25 to top-10 teams. </p>
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<p id="SPLd1t">This week we’re going to take a look at the national picture, but first just a few short thoughts about the Horns.</p>
<p id="0gowBF">I’ve been harping all year that Vegas set the line at 8 wins this year, and now Texas has to win out for that to happen, and I don’t think even the most optimistic of us sees that as a possibility right now. </p>
<p id="aiFebs">No, Texas is staring 6-6 in the face right now, and that would mean Texas would need to defeat either Iowa State or West Virginia on the road or Skylar Thompson on a lazy Black Friday morning. None of those prospects excite me. </p>
<p id="IZ3w7f">The Longhorns cannot keep cycling through coordinators and assistant coaches, and we have talked about the talent issues on this team (how many guys on that offense Saturday would have started for Baylor? Baylor!), but this team is more talented than 6-6 and somebody will need to take a fall. You don’t necessarily want that to be a coordinator, but man, do better if you don’t want to lose your job. </p>
<p id="D4q2NF">It figures to be a busy off-season for the Horns no matter what happens, but man I am tired of being run out of the stadium by teams like Baylor. Those days have to end.</p>
<p id="1UY7Un">We said earlier this year before the TCU game that those were the games that Steve Sarkisian was brought in to win. So was Oklahoma State and Baylor.</p>
<p id="joJ99y">Alright the first College Football Playoff Rankings of the year were announced this week and everyone of course ran to their Twitter account and began bitching about the rankings as soon as they were announced like we don’t have another month of football for these things to sort themselves out.</p>
<p id="Wuk1Fv"><strong>Georgia </strong>is deservedly number one in the land. Nobody disputes that. The rest of the top 4 was <strong>Alabama, Michigan State </strong>and <strong>Oregon. </strong>I know everyone was whining about Alabama being #2, but let’s ask Vegas who would be favored on a neutral field between Alabama and the rest of the Top 10. Yeah, I thought so.</p>
<p id="jY0dFg">Michigan State seems very much the flavor of the month that very possibly could fall even before they play Ohio State and Penn State in consecutive weeks later this month, and if they don’t, they will one of those weeks. </p>
<p id="Qxgwdr">Oregon doesn’t play a ranked team the rest of the season, but do have to travel to Washington and to Utah. They also end the season with the Game Formally Known As The Civil War against a scrappy Oregon State team. Crazier things have happened. </p>
<p id="Kfl23g">You know the committee is falling all over themselves to get <strong>Ohio State </strong>in the playoff, and with a favorable schedule the rest of the way (@ Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan State, @ Michigan) they’ll likely be in it when Oregon or Michigan State fall. </p>
<p id="vfAwr6">Side note: Does anyone notice that Ohio State plays 10 home games a year? Can someone investigate this?</p>
<p id="Ewmn2O">And then there is <strong>Cincinnati</strong>. Oh yes, the Group of Five team that too cool for school Twitter lusts about every year, lamenting when they don’t get a shot at the playoff but then knowing that Alabama would be favored over Cincinnati by two touchdowns. I say it every year – there should be two national champions in college football. We do it in Texas high school football and nobody thinks it is weird – we would think it was weird if we made a team play a school with a bigger band than they do a student body in the playoffs.</p>
<p id="fBlNs3">Other teams in the top 10 include <strong>Michigan </strong>(hahaha), <strong>Oklahoma</strong>, who is finally being punished for their weak schedule (they should really change conferences), <strong>Wake Forest </strong>(okay who included a basketball team in here) and <strong>Notre Dame.</strong></p>
<p id="TVpptk">Because somehow they have the worst offense in America and keep winning. If Texas is, as Tony Soprano once said, the reverse of King Midas because everything they touch turns to shit, Notre Dame is, well, King Midas.</p>
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<h3 id="pqq1N8"><strong>UTSA -11 @ UTEP:</strong></h3>
<p id="fHYZsq">It’s not often that I feature teams that have played Bethune Cookman this season <checks Texas A&M’s 2021 schedule real quick>, nope this is a first. </p>
<p id="AJezs0">UTEP screwed it all up with a loss to FAU last weekend, otherwise there was a greater than zero chance of <em>College Gameday </em>setting up shop outside of the Sun Bowl. </p>
<p id="cAzCbk">Regardless UTSA is up to #16 in the AP Poll in Jeff Traylor’s second season in the River City – a second season that has been so successful that the Roadrunners gave Traylor a 10-year extension this week worth $28 million, which included a buyout that starts out at $7.5 million in year one. </p>
<p id="r9B2JN">They clearly feel like he is the one to build the program around, and to make sure that they get compensated justly when a blueblood comes calling.</p>
<p id="yPXFNt">The Roadrunners have scored 45 points or more in 4 of their 8 games this season, including the last three. They are led on the field by Senior quarterback Frank Harris, from Schertz, TX. Harris has thrown for 1,793 yards and 16 touchdowns this year. He’s joined in the backfield by fellow San Antonio metro-area denizen Sincere McCormick, who has rushed for 891 yards and 9 touchdowns. He’s reached 100 yards in five games.</p>
<p id="jRCh1H">Get past this one and there is a possibility of a NY6 bowl invite for UTSA, depending on what happens with Cincinnati. The rest of the schedule for the Roadrunners: Southern Miss (1-7), UAB (5-3), and @ North Texas (2-6). </p>
<p id="EmF5dU">Meanwhile in El Paso Dana Dimel has the Miners turned around in year four under his watch. In 2017 UTEP was 0-12. The next two years they were 1-11. But here they are at 6=2 with a shot at the Conference USA title game. </p>
<p id="xcVZQy">UTSA is 9-1 in their last 10 games against the spread – it is hard to go against that right now.</p>
<p id="0vQ0xN">And for the record, A&M is playing Prairie View A&M in a few weeks, Bethune Cookman’s conference mate. </p>
<p id="ZFMoxi"><em><strong>UTSA 34 UTEP 21</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="okZCj4"><strong>Auburn @ Texas A&M -4.5:</strong></h3>
<p id="ERbcsL">Quick – who is in second place in the SEC West? Right now it is these Auburn Tigers, winners of 4 out of their last 5 with that one loss coming to #1 Georgia.</p>
<p id="BXEB77">Outside of that Georgia game, the Tigers haven’t given up more than 28 points in a game this season and did a fine job last week in a win over Ole Miss corralling Matt Corral. They’ll have their hands full this week with an Aggie running game that has seems to be hitting their stride and had the week off last week. That is problematic as the weak spot for the Auburn defense is their rush defense. Against Arkansas, Georgia and Georgia Southern they gave up more than 200 yards rushing…they’ll need to tighten that up.</p>
<p id="6GepTq">The Aggies have this one and then @ Ole Miss next week – win both of those and they could be an Auburn win in the Iron Bowl from playing in their first SEC Championship Game. </p>
<p id="g9Zf6b">With the exception of an Auburn win at home in 2018, the road team has won this game 8 out of the last 9 years, with most of these games being tight (Auburn averages 27.8 ppg in that timeframe and A&M 30.3). With that in mind, give me Auburn. Maybe not to win outright, but to cover. </p>
<p id="iRaDCk"><em><strong>Texas A&M 27 Auburn 24</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="1ApjxS"><strong>LSU @ Alabama -28.5:</strong></h3>
<p id="kf1LXm">It wasn’t too long ago that this was <em>the </em>game of the year – but all of the sudden Alabama has won 9 of 10 in this series, with LSU’s one win of course coming in 2019. Even worse for the Tigers is that these games aren’t even close anymore – 7 of those 9 wins was by two scores or more. Outside of 2019, LSU hasn’t scored more than 17 points since 2010 and haven’t scored more than 24 since 2007. </p>
<p id="QigfR5">This is the fifth of five straight games for LSU against ranked opponents – thus far they are 1-3 in those games and gave up 31 points in three of those games. Defense has been a problem in Baton Rouge all season – LSU ranks just 73rd in the country in SP+ defense.</p>
<p id="PdH6vK">Bryce Young is heating up. He has 348 yards passing in three straight games. This one shouldn’t be much of a game, either. </p>
<p id="ZLAvxN"><em><strong>Alabama 41 LSU 17</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="YBH43C"><strong>Baylor -7 @ TCU:</strong></h3>
<p id="BtUBFm">It was the end of an era this week in Fort Worth when Gary Patterson was shown the door (or he showed himself the door), ending a 21-year run as the head coach of the TCU Horned Frogs. It was time. TCU was only 13-18 in their last 31 Big 12 games and are likely headed to their second losing season in three years and their worst record since 2013 (4-8). </p>
<p id="v1UIiB">There is an overwhelming sentiment in the college football world that Patterson should have been able to dictate his terms or finish the season, but with the invention of the early signing day in college football, we’ll likely see more of this as schools align themselves to hire someone as soon as the whistle blows after the final regular season game.</p>
<p id="JQZoox">The Horned Frogs have lost 5 of 6 this season, with that lone victory a 21-point win in Lubbock that is perplexing to this day. Quarterback Max Duggan is clearly not healthy and star running back Zach Evans has missed three straight games with an injury but there are also rumors swirling that he’s on his way out, a move that is likely sure to come now that Patterson is gone. </p>
<p id="swSAMX">Patterson’s downfall this year was a defense that is currently 76th in the country in SP+ defense. That is not a recipe for success against a Baylor team that is quite happy to run the football and bide their time, as Texas found out last weekend. </p>
<p id="PfK3nw"><em><strong>Baylor 27 TCU 23</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="qdp7ZG"><strong>Oklahoma State -3.5 @ West Virginia:</strong></h3>
<p id="aGSlWs">West Virginia is coming off their biggest win of the year, their 38-31 defeat of Iowa State in Morgantown last weekend. Jarret Doege had what might have been the best game of his career, throwing for 370 yards and three touchdowns (and two interceptions) while Leddy Brown rushed for 109 yards.</p>
<p id="DtEuMc">Is that Neal Brown’s team finding their way, or was that Iowa State pulling an Iowa State?</p>
<p id="bi32yI">I lean towards the latter.</p>
<p id="t3pGc1"><em><strong>Oklahoma State 31 West Virginia 20</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="BJoqNB"><strong>Texas @ Iowa State -6.5:</strong></h3>
<p id="igpM1g">Iowa Steak (RIP ChuckFnStrong) has won exactly four games against Texas in their illustrious history, but two of those were the last two years, 23-20 last year in Austin and 23-21 two years ago in Ames. The last time Texas beat Iowa State? The “Don’t Stop Believing” game in 2018. </p>
<p id="qHUUhn">Of course Texas is hoping to avoid a few streaks this weekend. A loss would be their fourth in a row and would be the first time they have done that since 2010. This team badly needs a win…and finds itself in a tough place to win when the temperature is supposed to dip into the 40s by the time the game ends. </p>
<p id="hZqkSe">Iowa State came into this year returning upwards of 19 starters off of a 9-3 team last year that lost two conference games by a total of 9 points. Thus they were expected to be a participant in the Big 12 Championship for the second straight year, but that appears to be but a dream after their defeat to West Virginia last weekend. </p>
<p id="EUxjgT">If they couldn’t win it this year, when? </p>
<p id="DA6a4Y">Two games ago they lost starting middle linebacker Mike Rose, the reigning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year to injury. West Virginia proceeded to put up 492 yards on the Cyclones when they hadn’t given up more than 350 all season and gave up 38 points to a West Virginia team that had been averaging 20 points per game in conference play. </p>
<p id="efcNpd">Of course Rose is expected back this week. Of course. </p>
<p id="nAlbAC">This isn’t a good matchup for Texas. Sam Ehlinger was their leading rusher against the Cyclones each of the last two years. They’ve let a mediocre Brock Purdy throw for 300 yards in each of those games. They’ve let Breece Hall run for around 100 yards each of those games.</p>
<p id="s1Foeu">Texas has been awful on the road this season. We’ve seen Casey Thompson’s ceiling and I don’t think it is good enough to win a Saturday night game in Ames.</p>
<p id="rWJLoJ"><em><strong>Iowa State 27 Texas 21</strong></em></p>
<p id="uw3vOZ">For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for a new emotional support animal. </p>
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https://www.barkingcarnival.com/2021/11/4/22762843/the-week-that-will-be-deja-bu-texas-footballHornMafia2021-10-28T07:30:00-05:002021-10-28T07:30:00-05:00The Week That Will Be: Thriller Night
<figure>
<img alt="Oklahoma State v Texas" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xbkxJ1dkDX0urAbYual7XpcWyZQ=/0x38:3676x2489/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70056326/1347808343.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Horns head to Waco in a fight for their season. </p> <p id="LenGZl"><strong>Last Week: 3-3 ATS 3-3 SU</strong></p>
<p id="gsfui2"><strong>For the Year: 23-25 (.479) (-$430) ATS 31-17 (.646) SU</strong></p>
<p id="cFFH2p"><em><strong>Chalk (Oklahoma State +7 @ Iowa State): </strong></em>Brock Purdy threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns and the Iowa State defense held Oklahoma State to 2 of 10 on third down as Iowa State pulled out the win. Matt Campbell’s team is now 16-2 in October since 2017, with three of those victories over top-10 teams.</p>
<p id="ALVoLw"><em><strong>Bad Beat (South Carolina +20.5 @ Texas A&M): </strong></em>Don’t ever rely on bad offenses on the road. From about midway through the first through the third quarter, the Gamecocks had -1 total yards. One yard less than you sitting on your couch.</p>
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<p id="l20pcV">This week let’s take a look around the college football landscape with some Quick Hits:</p>
<p id="DVYV5f"><strong>The Heisman Trophy </strong></p>
<p id="UkYyDb">The straw poll Heisman leaders at this point: Bryce Young, Matt Corral, Kenny Pickett and Jordan Davis.</p>
<p id="639jRS">Do we <em>have </em>to award this award every year?</p>
<p id="HfnJ3m"><strong>The Coaching Carousel </strong></p>
<p id="qrjIPr">Two bluebloods are already open (<strong>USC </strong>and <strong>LSU), </strong>as are two other Power 5 programs (<strong>Texas Tech </strong>& <strong>Washington State)</strong>, and many others will be open once those jobs above are filled, or we reach the end of the season. <strong>Miami </strong>might find the cash in the couch cushions to rid themselves of Manny Diaz, <strong>Virginia Tech </strong>is tiring of yesteryear’s darling Justin Fuente and many more, including <strong>Oregon, Florida, TCU </strong>and <strong>Michigan State.</strong></p>
<p id="99hABR">With all that movement, Tom Herman will surface somewhere again, no? LSU & USC are the sexy jobs, but Texas Tech with the right hire could rule this new Big 12 conference at the outset. I know who is guaranteed to bring them back to relevance out there and it isn’t a guy 20 games into his college coaching tenure at UTSA, either. It’s the guy that they would get a lot of flack for hiring, but Tech has been there before, right Knight?</p>
<p id="pZokVu">Either way, this combined with the transfer portal and this off-season might be one of the juiciest in quite some time. </p>
<p id="LlaN9W"><strong>The Top 10</strong></p>
<p id="D8Kfqo">So right now the top-10 is: </p>
<p id="PdjPnK">Georgia</p>
<p id="9bxmbl">Cincinnati</p>
<p id="amAnaR">Alabama</p>
<p id="H1GxZq">Oklahoma</p>
<p id="wKOnuW">Ohio State</p>
<p id="dskNZc">Michigan</p>
<p id="6TfCXU">Oregon</p>
<p id="epMTLn">Michigan State</p>
<p id="Zh9dy5">Iowa</p>
<p id="61G6Zk">Ole Miss</p>
<p id="mlS0Ki">You know it is an off year when Cincinnati is #2. If Oklahoma is the fourth best team in the country then this country is far worse than we thought it was. Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State haven’t played anybody, and the one they did, they lost to Oregon. Oregon lost to a very average Stanford. When Ole Miss is cracking the top-10, let’s just clear the records and start the year over again. Louisiana, come to Austin. </p>
<p id="yLCJd6"> <strong>The Big 12</strong></p>
<p id="XkiGha">Remaining schedules for teams still in it (yes, Texas is still in it):</p>
<p id="QmyG7N"><em>Oklahoma (5-0 in the Big 12)</em>: Texas Tech, @ Baylor, Iowa State, Ok. State</p>
<p id="wbSQFy"><em>Ok. State (3-1)</em>: Kansas, @ West Virginia, TCU, @ Texas Tech, Oklahoma</p>
<p id="NlRRrE"><em>Baylor (3-1):</em> Texas, @ TCU, Oklahoma, @ Kansas State, Texas Tech</p>
<p id="eSZxki"><em>Iowa State (3-1): </em>@ West Virginia, Texas, @ Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma, TCU</p>
<p id="CQUfxC"><em>Texas (2-2): </em>@ Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, @ West Virginia, Kansas State</p>
<p id="LsGAdc">We can probably go ahead and put Oklahoma in the game, after them you probably like Oklahoma State’s schedule the best, but they aren’t exactly known for their ability to perform under pressure, but hey it happens to all of us, dammit. </p>
<p id="gVaDiS">With two wins the next two weeks Texas can go a long way towards helping themselves, but they also could have helped themselves tremendously the last two games and we see how that went. </p>
<p id="Xee5gu">Either way will someone else win this conference for my sanity’s sake?</p>
<p id="ghOeQj"><strong>Texas and “Game Control” </strong></p>
<div id="5yvVHc">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CFB?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CFB</a> Game Control** Team Rankings<br><br>1️⃣ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UGA?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UGA</a> 84%<br>2️⃣ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Michigan?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Michigan</a> 81%<br>3️⃣ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CoastalCarolina?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CoastalCarolina</a> 77%<br>4️⃣ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Alabama?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Alabama</a> 76%<br>5️⃣ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MichiganState?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#MichiganState</a> 75%<br>6️⃣ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Texas?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Texas</a> 73%<br>7️⃣ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Baylor?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Baylor</a> 73%<br>8️⃣ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WakeForest?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WakeForest</a> 72%<br>9️⃣ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AirForce?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AirForce</a> 70%<br> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Louisiana?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Louisiana</a> 68%<br><br>** = % of game plays having the lead</p>— SportSource Analytics (@SportSourceA) <a href="https://twitter.com/SportSourceA/status/1452309059617558544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 24, 2021</a>
</blockquote>
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<p id="6qPeIk">Game Control is a metric that tells us the percentage of a game’s plays that a team has had the lead. You see Texas at 6. The five teams ahead of them? They have a combined record of 34-2. And then you have Texas there at 4-3. What could have been…</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="mfLIaV">
<h3 id="65bCDN"><strong>SMU @ Houston PK:</strong></h3>
<p id="pokEmK">Every time I see this match-up I think of that 95-21 mess back in 1989. Jack Pardee and John Jenkins were something else.</p>
<p id="5NYhqO">SMU enters this match-up with a perfect record of 7-0, and if they get past this one they have two more winnable games before going to Cincinnati the Saturday before Thanksgiving for what would be a high profile game. Meanwhile Houston is 6-1, with their only coming to Texas Tech in the season opener, a game in which they led by 14 points at halftime. They also have a favorable schedule remaining as they do not face another team with a winning record after this one.</p>
<p id="ZynpBB">The Cougars didn’t look too good last week against East Carolina, but that might be understandable as the game was delayed five hours due to lightning in the area. Houston blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter and eventually had to win in overtime. </p>
<p id="WYzsCy">The quarterback matchup is the one to watch here. Houston’s Clayton Tune is experienced but he is having a very mediocre year, throwing for 1,427 yards with 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Contrast that to SMU starter (and Oklahoma transfer) Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown for 2,320 yards with 29 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.</p>
<p id="75iLZ4">I think SMU has too much firepower for the Cougars in this one.</p>
<p id="J8VWVh"><em><strong>SMU 38 Houston 30</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="5QT9tp"><strong>Florida vs. Georgia -14.5 (Jacksonville, FL):</strong></h3>
<p id="f64Ein">Going back to last year’s LSU game, Florida is now 4-6 in their last ten ballgames and 2-6 in their last 8 against Power 5 opponents. With the loss to LSU last week, the Gators don’t have a realistic shot at the SEC Championship game so this is their chance for respect this season.</p>
<p id="E12TW3">The trouble with the Gators is that they are just not that good. Their best “win” is a two-point loss to Alabama, considering their actual wins came over Florida Atlantic, South Florida, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. They haven’t had a running back finish with 100-yards since week one. In fact their top <em>two </em>leading rushers are quarterbacks.</p>
<p id="xlG1f4">Georgia has proven to be the best team in college football this season thanks to a very good defense…not that they have played a team with an offensive pulse. They have yet to give up more than 13 points all season, which is fantastic no matter the opponent, but the opponents have been good lately with Georgia facing three Top-20 teams the last three games. They have outscored them 101-23. </p>
<p id="IQpxIs">J.T. Daniels is expected to get the start for the Bulldogs. It is yet to be seen how much rust he might have since he hasn’t played in a month, but Georgia keeps rolling along despite not having a 100-yard rusher all season, which is just mind blowing.</p>
<p id="0Nk5cR">Georgia has won three of four in this series, but Florida did win 44-28 last year in a game that saw Kyle Trask throw for 474 yards and 4 touchdowns. That might be three games for this Florida team.</p>
<p id="PgiNi6"><strong>Georgia 34 Florida 17</strong></p>
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<h3 id="RzJesE"><strong>Penn State @ Ohio State -18.5:</strong></h3>
<p id="WpQrre">Penn State might still be playing in overtime against Illinois for all we know.</p>
<p id="d1WDAv">It would be just as well anyways as the Nittany Lions have only defeated Ohio State five times <em>this century</em>, and haven’t won in Columbus since 2011. The good news is that they are generally close losses, as Ohio State’s average margin of victory in the last four years has been 6.5 points. </p>
<p id="HnTqTX">The story of the game was of course the ineptitude of both squads in scoring from the three-yard line last week, but before that Illinois had outrushed Penn State by an astounding margin of 357-62 and had been held to 4-of-17 on third down. With this matchup and Michigan and Michigan State still left on the schedule, Penn State is desperate for a victory here. </p>
<p id="1QgsTw">You do remember Ohio State, right? The last time most of us saw them they were getting their hides handed to them by Oregon in the Horseshoe. And with good reason, as they have defeated Tulsa (3-4), Akron (2-6), Rutgers (3-4), Maryland (4-3) and Indiana (2-5) for the last month and a half. Texas would be a one-loss team with that schedule, too.</p>
<p id="7VSJI1">Their offense has been great and their defense has been up to Ohio State standards, but it is impossible to judge how much of that is the quality of the opponent and how much it is Ohio State. </p>
<p id="ppfueV">The Buckeyes have won 25 consecutive Big Ten games and they aren’t going to drop this one, but I think Penn State at least gives them a better fight than Tulrongerslandana did.</p>
<p id="XQ5700"><em><strong>Ohio State 35 Penn State 21</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="Ud7k1D"><strong>Michigan -4 @ Michigan State:</strong></h3>
<p id="ugPgCR">For the first time since 1964 these teams meet as top-10 teams, as both enter this match-up with unbeaten records. Of course between the two of them they have no wins over a ranked team, but don’t worry about that right now. </p>
<p id="pSiNDq">Five of Michigan’s seven wins have been by 21 points or more, although you wouldn’t really know it looking at quarterback Cade McNamara’s stats, which include 27 completions last week for 129 yards and only five touchdown passes on the whole season.</p>
<p id="FgnrDb">McNamara has been the prototypical bus driver thus far this season, but for Michigan to get past Michigan State and Penn State and Ohio State and get to the Big Ten Championship, he’ll have to be a race car driver at some point. </p>
<p id="EeYnVF">This isn’t your mother’s Michigan State team, or even your little sister’s as the Spartans have scored 30 or more points five times season, more than the last two seasons combined. They are led on offense by running back and Heisman nominee Kenneth Walker III, who has rushed for 997 yards at 6.6 yards per carry. </p>
<p id="UEBbkX">Look for this one to be a low scoring mess as both teams will be content running the football, protecting their quarterback and playing defense. If it comes down to it, Michigan special teams have converted 14 of 16 field goal attempts this season, while Michigan State has only converted 10 of 15. </p>
<p id="kg2foK"><em><strong>Michigan 27 Michigan State 20</strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="7vTbvQ">
<h3 id="o8Ty14"><strong>Texas Tech @ Oklahoma -19.5:</strong></h3>
<p id="VpJ9xC">Oklahoma has won 9 in a row in this series. In the late aughts Texas Tech had a stretch of 4 wins in 7 years but like a lot of things out there, that went away with Mike Leach. What is worse for Tech is that the games haven’t been very close for the most part, with only three of those having been a one score game. </p>
<p id="sZiGnn">This might shock you but defense has been the culprit in this series for the Red Raiders. Oklahoma hasn’t scored less than 49 against Tech since 2014 and they haven’t scored less than 38 since 2009. </p>
<p id="3acclg">The Matt Wells era ended with Tech taking a lead on Kansas State 14-0 after three minutes on Saturday but then being outscored 25-10 the other 57 minutes of the game. The Wildcats had 12 penalties, two turnovers and only 81 rushing yards but still won the game on the road – it is hard to survive that. </p>
<p id="lpVgTr">For the second time in three weeks Oklahoma scored 35 points in the second half to erase a double digit halftime deficit…for the life of me I can’t remember the other team they did against. </p>
<p id="hNWWM4">Tech might hang around a little bit in this one but it should be low stress for Oklahoma.</p>
<p id="jZG1HJ"><em><strong>Oklahoma 41 Texas Tech 24</strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="tkarqv">
<h3 id="eshog5"><strong>Texas @ Baylor -3:</strong></h3>
<p id="8Dejzy">If I would have told you back in August that Texas would be an underdog against Baylor, who went 2-7 last year, you might have been a bit distraught. Hell you might be right now.</p>
<p id="xPJNg6">But I am here to tell you that Baylor was the best 2-7 team in the country last season. Afterall they lost six conference games by a combined 51 points and then suffered a blowout loss to Oklahoma State in the season finale. </p>
<p id="VCmZ7g">In the off-season Dave Aranda jettisoned his offensive leadership and brought in Jeff Grimes from BYU along with his offensive line coach. That, combined with a tough, fundamental defense has the Bears sitting at 6-1 and with a real chance to get back to the conference title game.</p>
<p id="CXGTkN">Gerry Bohanon is the starting quarterback for the Bears. Some raised their eyebrows this Summer when he was named starter, but all he has done is throw for 1,563 yards and 12 touchdowns while only throwing one interception. No, he hasn’t been great, but he’s done most of what they have asked him to, and he is certainly not losing games for them. The 6’3” former 4-star signal caller from Earle, Arkansas had offers from Arkansas and Ole Miss as a dual-threat quarterback, but they don’t use him as a runner much, only totaling 141 rushing yards this season. </p>
<p id="Qvskok">Defensively the Bears haven’t allowed an opponent to score more than 29 points this season and have held five of seven to 20 points or less. An upperclassman-laden defense, the Bears rank 16th in SP+ defense this year. You can make an argument that they are the best defense we have seen thus far.</p>
<p id="dqteGP">A win here would give Texas their 80th win against Baylor all-time, the most of any opponent (second is Texas A&M, with 76 victories. The Horns have won 4 of 5 against the Bears and desperately need one here. That desperation outweighs what could be a tough match-up for the Horns here. </p>
<p id="KUs3rb"><em><strong>Texas 28 Baylor 24</strong></em></p>
<p id="fqNuTH">For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Halloween candy in this supply shortage.</p>
https://www.barkingcarnival.com/2021/10/28/22750069/the-week-that-will-be-thriller-night-longhorns-footballHornMafia2021-10-21T07:20:00-05:002021-10-21T07:20:00-05:00The Week That Will Be: Work in Progress
<figure>
<img alt="Oklahoma State v Texas" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rW0LDAayRZZ9zyE9HfsTL1xp3KQ=/0x127:3202x2262/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70025212/1346953395.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We wanted to skip that whole rebuild thing...but its here.</p> <p id="OPUxt8"><strong>Last Week: 3-3 ATS 4-2 SU</strong></p>
<p id="vBlqwP"><strong>For the Year: 20-22 (.476) (-$400) ATS 28-14 (.667) SU</strong></p>
<p id="4wNmxE"><em><strong>Chalk (Oklahoma -13.5 vs. TCU): </strong></em>Three weeks ago we were told we put too many high expectations on Spencer Rattler, but this week we are told that a true freshman is a Heisman candidate after his first career start. Caleb Williams was impressive, but c’mon. Gary Patterson has now lost 8 in a row and 11 of 12 to Oklahoma. </p>
<p id="LWJDaP"><em><strong>Bad Beat (Kansas State +6.5 vs. Iowa State): </strong></em>Breece Hall took the first play of the game 75 yards for a touchdown and it was off to the races for Iowa State. Kansas State scored two fourth quarter touchdowns to make it somewhat respectable, but Chris Klieman’s squad now sits at 0-3 in the Big 12 after allowing the Cyclones to average 6.0 yards per carry…but imagine what it was after that 75-yarder. Progress. </p>
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<p id="NJjmzQ">2021 was always going to be a rebuilding year on the Forty Acres. Vegas told us as much, setting the over/under on Texas wins at 8. I said in the season opening column this year I was thinking 9, just because I didn’t expect to get our doors blown off in Fayetteville.</p>
<p id="L2u6eG">As we sit here 58.33% way through the season, knowing that it was a rebuilding year doesn’t make it feel any better.</p>
<p id="WwqGQw">Because no ifs, ands or buts about it, this team should be 6-1 and sitting in the Top 10.</p>
<p id="MxtHTJ">They would still have the same problems – but we could at least dream of conference titles and sneaking into the playoff and being a year ahead of the process.</p>
<p id="vI2VhV">Indeed we’re sitting here starting at a matchup with Clemson…but in the Cheez-It Bowl.</p>
<p id="7osPJj">Perhaps we can make ourselves feel better by telling ourselves it is for the best – with a better record we would be less apt to tell ourselves the truth and patch holes that need to be patched.</p>
<p id="bxoFaa">And there are plenty of holes to patch. The 2018 and 2019 recruiting classes are littered with guys that didn’t make it, or did make it and haven’t made much progress since they were in high school. Championship contending defenses don’t have former walk-ons starting or in the two-deep at the most important positions on defense. </p>
<p id="4VBaRR">The Longhorns’ best wide receiver is a guy who has been on campus for three months. The tight ends are nearly non-existent. And the offensive line…it’s not exactly Kasey Studdard and Lyle Sendlein. </p>
<p id="blH2Yp">Texas has been outscored 41-7 in the fourth quarter the last two games. TCU outscored them in the fourth quarter and after halftime. Last week after the first drive of the second half they had 17 plays for 14 yards and 0 first downs the rest of the game.</p>
<p id="06u82E">And the reasoning is simple – they don’t have the horses up front on either side of the ball, and as the game goes on and fatigue sets in that becomes more and more apparent. </p>
<p id="wRwfQq">One of the most simple instruments in all of football is getting a lead of multiple scores in the second half and relying on your running game to bring the win home. And the Longhorns have the best running back in all of college football.</p>
<p id="EFRkLL">Yet they can’t even get first downs in the second half of these games.</p>
<p id="18XUG0">Just baffling.</p>
<p id="fU1lpR">We talked last week about how Mike Gundy is always under the gun in Stillwater (no pun intended) but the results have been great for OSU – they flat out out-coached Texas on Saturday. </p>
<p id="yYQkuA">If you have been reading this column for a number of years you know that at heart I am a glass-half full kind of football guy, but this team can’t be getting pushed around the field by the likes of Oklahoma State and TCU.</p>
<p id="PpXawk">Perhaps a great quarterback would cover up a lot of faults. I don’t think the one with the job right now is that guy, and I’m not sure about the guy behind him because he really didn’t get a fair shake. It is time for him to get that shake, if for nothing else this roster needs a refresh in the off-season and we need to know if he is the guy or not before he transfers out because this is 2021 and that’s what these kids do now.</p>
<p id="d4gpTN">Or perhaps he isn’t playing because the coaches already feel like he isn’t the guy. I don’t know.</p>
<p id="zhnL7n">I don’t think there is any doubt that the future of Texas football is in the right hands.</p>
<p id="U7nb7d">Just please excuse the mess while it gets sorted out. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="diY5uA">
<h3 id="MKPEvU"><strong>South Carolina @ Texas A&M -20.5:</strong></h3>
<p id="Z4UFuH">Do you trust Texas A&M here? They meandered through a win over Colorado, lost to Arkansas and Mississippi State and didn’t look good in the process, then out of nowhere they defeated Alabama. Then last week when they were ripe for a hangover with a 11:00 AM start in Columbia, they jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter against Missouri before walking away with an easy win.</p>
<p id="ZFje9q">Have the Aggies figured it out, or have they simply been on a hot streak? Zach Calzada came back to Earth a bit last week, barely completing 50% of his passes for 148 yards and two touchdowns and an interception. But the Aggies didn’t really need his contribution because they rushed for 283 yards at a 6.7 clip. When you can run the football like that, you are much less prone to roller coaster performances game to game.</p>
<p id="KA49gb">The Gamecocks, meanwhile, needed a touchdown with 37 seconds left last week to defeat lowly Vanderbilt and needed their 24-year old former assistant Zeb Noland to pull it off. They have three wins this year over East Carolina, Troy and Vandy by a total of 13 points. Not exactly a murderer’s row. </p>
<p id="yxmg59">The Aggies have won every game in this series, which started in 2014. The Gamecocks have scored 9 points in their last two meetings combined, I don’t see them adding much to that total here. </p>
<p id="ilo1mk"><em><strong>Texas A&M 28 South Carolina 10</strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="KE8W2o">
<h3 id="oX5Mie"><strong>LSU @ Ole Miss -9.5:</strong></h3>
<p id="tG0PyW">Boy these teams are flying under the radar, no?</p>
<p id="ijBVYp">Hardly. 17 games after “leading” LSU to a national championship, it was announced this week that Ed Orgeron won’t be back next year in Baton Rouge, which is good news for LSU players and trustee’s wives.</p>
<p id="ZNbI6h">Meanwhile Ole Miss was involved in that brouhaha at the end of the game in Knoxville last week, when Tennessee fans figured out they are terrible again and decided to throw their makeshift flasks (and a golf ball) on the field. They did finish the game and Ole Miss did still win despite the official protest of the officiating in the game.</p>
<p id="ENDJxg">The timing for the Orgeron announcement was awkward as LSU was coming off their biggest win of the year, a 49-42 thriller over Florida (the Gators are now 4-6 in their last 10 games) . LSU’s Tyrion Davis-Price had rushed for 140 yards through five games but now has 434 yards in his last two after rushing for 287 against Florida, the most ever allowed by the Gators. LSU had been struggling with the run, only totalling 375 on the year coming into that game. </p>
<p id="yq6S4Q">Ole Miss quarterback and Heisman candidate Matt Corral is questionable for this game after rushing an inexplicable 30 times last week in that win over Tennessee, a game that saw the Rebels run 101 offensive plays, an Ole Miss record. </p>
<p id="5hAT0o">LSU has won five straight in this series and 9 of 11, but if Corral plays (and I think the assumption is that he will), this shouldn’t be much of a game. </p>
<p id="PiihOJ"><em><strong>Ole Miss 45 LSU 27</strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="AkSUyO">
<h3 id="yK96H0"><strong>USC @ Notre Dame -7:</strong></h3>
<p id="4hAobU">This is the 89th game in this storied rivalry, with Notre Dame riding a three-game winning streak and winners of 7 of the last 10. USC has not won in South Bend since 2011. </p>
<p id="6x6D4i">USC made the dumb move of holding onto Clay Helton this past off-season despite knowing this would probably be his final year and then he didn’t even make it to October. Subsequently the Trojans now sit at 3-3 and 4th in the Pac-12 South with a 2-3 conference record.</p>
<p id="M5euaG">Those losses include their first loss to Oregon State in Los Angeles in about 60 years and home losses to Stanford and Utah in which they were not competitive. Even worse, the Trojans play garbage football, standing 126th in the nation (out of 130 teams) in fewest penalties. In those three home losses they have committed 28 penalties for about 200 yards. </p>
<p id="MIxqkg">Then there is Notre Dame, which has their own issues including a rotating door at quarterback and no running game to speak of. Yet they sit at 5-1 with very winnable games the rest of the schedule (no ranked teams). </p>
<p id="RKa3b8"><em><strong>Notre Dame 34 USC 21</strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="2rERSL">
<h3 id="SPmvSl"><strong>Oregon @ UCLA -2:</strong></h3>
<p id="Qd5tIA">Oregon defeated Ohio State earlier this year in Columbus and while they haven’t gone into a complete tailspin, that was definitely the apex of their season thus far. Last Friday night they found themselves in a dogfight with 1-5 Cal before finally coming out ahead 24-17. They let a bad Cal offense roll up 400 yards on them after earlier this month allowing a middling Stanford squad to accrue 350 yards in a Cardinal win.</p>
<p id="hGvaqf">One of the bright spots for Oregon is defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux, who is projected by many to be the first pick in next April’s NFL draft. How good is Thibodeaux? Last week in that win over Cal he had 11 pressures on 22 dropbacks with a sack – in the second half after missing the first half due to a targeting infraction earlier this year.</p>
<p id="NEv8Ay">Meanwhile UCLA with a win this week and next week at Utah would go a long way towards the running for the Pac-12 Championship game, a contest they have not been in since 2012. </p>
<p id="phYhrQ">The thing to watch in this one is the running game. UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown have combined for 1,165 rushing yards at 6.4 yards per carry, while their rush defense ranks 9th in the country. </p>
<p id="8D73mY">Oregon has won 13 of 16 in this series, but look for the Bruins to control both lines of scrimmage.</p>
<p id="9JEdiW"><em><strong>UCLA 34 Oregon 28</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="d5n7b6"><strong>West Virginia @ TCU -4.5:</strong></h3>
<p id="LvsVQC">TCU has now lost three of four games thanks mostly to a defense that has allowed at least 200 rushing yards in four consecutive games, as many as they allowed in the last three seasons combined.</p>
<p id="obyYS9">The Horned Frogs actually had more yards than Oklahoma last week in Norman, but 9 penalties and a costly turnover turned deadly for them. Their problem certainly isn’t offense as super sophomore Quentin Johnston had touchdown catches of 75, 25 and 20 yards against the Sooners in a game in which Max Duggan threw for 346 yards and 4 touchdowns. </p>
<p id="G6Ew6h">TCU needs 4 more wins to be bowl eligible, and with Baylor, Oklahoma State and Iowa State still on the schedule, this is a must win for them. The Mountaineers have lost three straight in the Big 12, I don’t see much reason why it won’t be four.</p>
<p id="yZrl1y"><em><strong>TCU 37 West Virginia 28</strong></em></p>
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<h3 id="0jHmXm"><strong>Oklahoma State @ Iowa State -7:</strong></h3>
<p id="YgNt5L">The Cowboys have won 11 of 14 in this series, and Iowa State has not won in Ames since 2011.</p>
<p id="jmp5Wa">You remember that game. Oklahoma State was #2 in the country with an inside track to getting to the BCS National Championship Game. All they had to do was beat Iowa State on a Friday night (they were 27 point favorites) and then defeat Oklahoma.</p>
<p id="lofCfK">But they lost in double OT. They beat Oklahoma by 34 two weeks later and then defeated #4 Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl to finish 11-1 and ranked third in the country.</p>
<p id="c0A53P">Ouch.</p>
<p id="pSss9D">Iowa State won the Kansas State Championship the last two games by a combined score of 92-27, led by a stingy defense and Breece Hall, who has run for 100 yards in four straight games and at least 190 yards in two out of his last three games. </p>
<p id="O3NKY9">But this isn’t Kansas.</p>
<p id="Bm5Aqv">Oklahoma State is a little more battle tested, defeating Baylor and Texas in conference play. Win this one and they would own the tiebreaker over the next three teams in the conference race. Texas fans don’t need to hear any more praise of the Oklahoma State defense but after finishing first in the country in third down defense last season they are back in the Top 10 this year after holding Texas to 4/14 last Saturday. </p>
<p id="0N9sWu">Brock Purdy against this defense? Geesh. </p>
<p id="IrSrFK">Oklahoma State is 10-3 in their last 13 games as an underdog. That includes 7 outright wins in that stretch.</p>
<p id="BXQIpQ">They get another one here.</p>
<p id="EISTk1"><em><strong>Oklahoma State 28 Iowa State 23</strong></em></p>
<p id="myZb41">For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Cheez-It Bowl tickets!</p>
https://www.barkingcarnival.com/2021/10/21/22737748/the-week-that-will-be-work-in-progress-texas-longhorns-footballHornMafia