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The brackets are set, the fans are overwhelming Orbitz, and @LonghornRdTrip is in line at an Austin clinic selling plasma to pay for a Milwaukee hotel. In other words, MARCH MADNESS IS HERE. (I haven't decided what illness I'm using to work from home on Thursday & Friday, but the leader in the clubhouse is some form of aggressively communicable STD.) Most readers of this site are bigger football fans than basketball, but for me this weekend is my favorite sports weekend of the year. I get 96 hours of high-level college basketball, to which I react like Jeff Portnoy near an ox in the jungle.
If I were a benevolent dictator of the US - and believe me, I'm working on it - I'd declare these 4 days a national holiday. 96 hours of Verne Lundquist yelling 'Oh my!' and Bill Raftery's patented 'ONIONS!' blaring across my TV? 96 hours of Marv Albert & Steve Kerr classing up the college broadcast? YES PLEASE.
The BC Basketball Illuminati have gathered to give a few thoughts and wild-ass predictions for the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Use them wisely; as much as I love this sport, predicting a bracket is generally an exercise in futility. It's easy to become enamored of a 13 seed that seems ripe for a run to an Elite Eight, only to be run out of the gym in their first game. Without further ado, here you go.
WEST REGION:
Favored Team:
JC25: Arizona has found life without Brandon Ashley to be more difficult than its season's beginning, but I still like the Wildcats to emerge unscathed from this region. Nick Johnson has quietly developed into a collegiate All-American, and Arizona's lengthy frontcourt gives lots of teams fits.
BWG: Arizona. I like their path to the Final Four if they can get past a potential 3rd round game against Oklahoma State.
Tjarks: Arizona. They have been one of the best teams all season and I see no reason to pick against them when they are going to have a huge home-court advantage out West.
Scipio: Arizona. Oklahoma State could be problematic, particularly as Marcus Smart has refined his game post suspension. Still, Arizona has such a clear path.
Darkhorse Team:
Upset Candidate:
JC25: Oklahoma looks ripe for the 5-12 upset. The Bison have a trio of 6' 7"+ seniors to match-up with Oklahoma's smallish frontcourt. Both teams are good offensively, with the Sooners preferring a sprint contest while the Bison want to grind out the clock. If the latter imposes its will, I smell a North Dakota State win. In the Round of 32, I like the Baylor-Nebraska winner to knock off Creighton.
BWG: Oregon vs. BYU.
Tjarks: Creighton. I don't like teams who don't protect the rim. Creighton lost their center from last season and never replaced him. A team that plays 5-out will put up a bunch of stats, but they are very vulnerable on defense.
Scipio: North Dakota State over Oklahoma. Bad draw for the Sooners if NDSU keeps it in the 60s.
Most Intriguing 2nd round match-up:
JC25: I'm looking forward to a talented but enigmatic Baylor bunch taking on a plucky Nebraska squad. The Cornhuskers have a lot of heart but look more like a smoke, mirrors, and defense sort of team. If I'm Baylor and can get by Nebraska, I'm not terrified of a 2-seed Wisconsin and a 3-seed Creighton, either.
BWG: Baylor vs. Nebraska. All things being equal Baylor should win this handily, but Scott Drew means Baylor’s gonna Baylor at some point. If Baylor wins, I fully expect Doug McDermott to score 80 against Baylor’s 1-3-1 zone in the 3rd round.
Tjarks: Oklahoma State vs. Gonzaga. Gonzaga has two huge big men who can bang you inside and a bunch of small, unathletic perimeter players (including John Stockton's son) while OSU has a bunch of big, athletic wings and no big men whatsoever. Will be interesting to see whose style of play prevails.
Scipio: I refuse to call the first round the second round because of the stupid play-in games. But the most intriguing game is Baylor-Nebraska.
MIDWEST REGION:
Favored Team:
Darkhorse Team:
Upset Candidate:
Most Intriguing 2nd round match-up:
JC25: I'll play my bluegrass card here. Kansas State can be terrifying to watch, and a plus-senior defenders Shane Southwell and Will Spradling figure to terrify Kentucky's all-freshmen backcourt. Still, I can't get over the oodles of talent (and height!) that Kentucky can throw on the court. I'm hoping it's not one-and-done for some of these freshmen phenoms.
BWG: You thought I was going to say Texas/Arizona State, didn’t you? I’m really intrigued by the Kentucky/Kansas State game. Kentucky should be favored, but I don’t think it’s a slam-dunk that they advance.
EAST REGION:
Favored Team:
Darkhorse Team:
Upset Candidate:
Tjarks: Iowa State. Just like Creighton, a team that can't protect the rim is one I don't want to ride very far in March.
Scipio: Harvard over Cincy. This one really depends on the whistles.
Most Intriguing 2nd round match-up:
JC25: Harvard will be a very popular 5-12 upset pick, but I can't get over how puzzlingly enjoyable it is to watch rough-and-tumble Cincinnati play. Two years ago, sophomores Sean Kilpatrick and Justin Jackson helped knock off Texas in the Round of 64. They're in their final go-round as seniors, and I would hate to see them lose in the first round.
BWG: Cincinnati vs. Harvard.
Tjarks: UNC vs. Providence - two of the best front-courts in the Tourney square off in the first round. I think whoever wins this game will get past Iowa State in the second.
Scipio: Cincinnati vs. Harvard.
SOUTH REGION:
Favored Team:
Darkhorse Team:
Upset Candidate:
Most Intriguing 2nd round match-up:
JC25: Will Joel Embiid play? That's the million-dollar question for Kansas. If not, 15 seed Eastern Kentucky has a team of marksmen. Their effective field goal percentage of 57.0% ranks fourth in the nation. If the nets start swishing, the Jayhawks could be on a long plane ride back to Lawrence.
BWG: VCU vs. SFA. Alright, fine, I’m excited about it too.
FINAL FOUR PICKS:
WEST:
JC25: Arizona
BWG: Creighton
Tjarks: Arizona
Scipio: Arizona
MIDWEST:
JC25: Louisville
BWG: Louisville
Tjarks: Wichita State
Scipio: Louisville
EAST:
JC25: Michigan State
BWG: Michigan State
Tjarks: Michigan State
Scipio: Michigan State
SOUTH:
JC25: Florida
BWG: Florida
Tjarks: UCLA
Scipio: Florida
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:
JC25: Arizona vs. Michigan State
BWG: Florida vs. Louisville
Tjarks: Arizona vs. Michigan State
Scipio: Florida vs. Louisville
CHAMPION:
JC25: Arizona
BWG:Louisville
Tjarks: Michigan State
Scipio: Florida
How far does Texas advance?
JC25: I like the Longhorns' chances against Arizona State. Since knocking off Arizona in double-overtime, the Sun Devils are just 2-5. Jahii Carson is fun to watch, but Texas' D will make him earn his points, hopefully inefficiently. Big man Jordan Bachynski would be a problem for most teams, but Texas can run Ridley and Ibeh at him. Now playing a Michigan team that can light the nets on fire? That's a whole 'nother story.
BWG: I sat there & stared at the Texas/Michigan game for 5 minutes, my mouse pointer hovering over Texas' name the entire time. I wanted to click it so badly, wanted to believe that Texas was making the Sweet 16 for the first time in 6 years...but I couldn't do it. I couldn't go full homer & pick the 'Horns to make it to the 2nd weekend. The round of 32 is an impressive result for this group considering where expectations were 4 months ago, but Sweet 16 feels a step too far.
Tjarks: Texas loses to Michigan in 2nd round, but I will take them to the Sweet 16 in my bracket because I'm a giant homer. They match-up pretty well with Michigan - a 5 who can exploit their lack of size inside, a stretch 4 who can score over the top of GR3 and a bunch of perimeter athletes who can D up. I think the bigger concern is ASU.
Scipio: Texas beats Arizona State (the Sun Devils haven't been playing well and they're bad on the road and on neutral courts) and then loses to Michigan, probably in an incredibly frustrating manner.
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