Vegas: Texas -13.5 vs. Cyclones

I was a bit shocked to see this line. I expected to see something more like Texas -7.

ISU began their season horribly, with losses at home to Northern Iowa and a blowout loss to Iowa 42-3 in Iowa City, but the last three weeks have showed a different Cyclone football team.  Or the Big 12 is just that bad.

Iowa State is coming off of two very competitive, but ultimately emotionally crushing losses to Baylor and Oklahoma State, while the Texas defense seems to be in a tailspin worthy of a kamikaze pilot.

Iowa State led Baylor 42-28 going into the 4th and lost 45-42.  They also led Oklahoma State in Stillwater 31-21 going into the 4th, before tapping out at 38-31.  Two double digit 4th quarter leads, both outscored 17-0 down the stretch in both games.

The match-ups don't favor the Cyclones on paper (they have inconsistent QB and OL play, defense can't stop the run - they surrendered 469 yards rushing to Baylor) but Texas has exhibited a knack for surprising us in terrible, terrible ways.

I'm not sure precedent matters, but the last three Texas-Iowa State contests:

ISU- 24, Texas - 0
Texas- 48, ISU- 45
Texas- 31, ISU- 30

Something is off and I'm too dumb to figure it out.  Help a brother out.  What say you?