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Texas Tech Relevance Week

It's also Baylor week (bear attack!). Tech is more interesting to me.

In order to make the Big XII championship game, Tech needs to run the table. In order for us to make it back, we really only need them to lose once. What are the odds that Tech makes it in?

First up, OSU at home. I think OSU is ever so slightly the better team, but not enough to overcome the home field advantage Tech will have. So let's say Tech will win 52% of the time.

The OU game will be much tougher. Mike Leach has always had trouble with OU's defense, needing phantom TDs and QB injuries to win. Assuming neither of those things happen, OU wins on a neutral field 80% of the time. At home, it's probably 85%.

So right off the bat there is a 7.5% chance that Tech runs this gauntlet. I'm not counting the upset of Texas in this calculation, because that's not how probability works. But if you want to ask the odds of beating three good teams in a row you could lower it slightly.

The next adjustment comes from my bias. I honestly try to be as objective as possible, but since I am prone to emotional swings from time to time, it gets hard to tell if I am just pouting. So I will give Tech the benefit of the doubt and raise both game numbers to 55% and 20% respectively.

Next, you have to figure in karma from the football Gods. You don't have a dropped INT followed by a miracle TD, preceded by 3 hours of uncalled penalties and just think you're going to get away scot free. Football Gods don't roll like that. They gave us a win over NU in 1996, then made James Brown's talent walk the plank. Back to 54% and 16%.

Don't forget, Mike Leach is gunning for a coaching job at a school that can afford stamps, so he'll bring everything he has to these two games. He might even pay attention this time. That has to be counted. 57/18. Call it the "Please get me out of here!" clause.

There is the Mike Gundy factor, wherein he gets to the 4th quarter in a tight game and started letting ball boys pick his plays. This game will undoubtedly be close, so Tech's chances are better. Bob Stoops, however, will be gunning for blood since Tech very well may have cost them a championship last year. 60% and 13%.

Finally, don't underestimate Mike Leach's use of Jack Daniels to calm his nerves. He'll be stoked, which for him means he'll put some inflection in his voice and open his eyes all the way. There is a great chance, should Tech beat OSU, that Leach will drink himself silly in the morning and spend the entire first half trying to invade the fans in the front rows and looting their wallets. 9%.

So there are my numbers. a 60% chance to beat OSU, 9% chance to beat OU. That means there is a 5.4% chance Tech makes the conference game. 7.5% again if he shows up sober.

Final note - we should all be rooting for OSU to win Saturday. That would put OU in the position of eliminating themselves if they win or lose. Watching 80,000 Okies go "yeahhhhhhawwwwwwww" all day would be endless fun.