I'll cut right to the chase. I now believe that my previous analysis of the computers was too rosy. While I stated that Tech as the wedge in Wolfe's system was only possible and not certain, it now looks like there's no way it will hold. Tech currently has a score of 9.889 with Baylor to play while Oklahoma is at 9.888 with Oklahoma State to play. So, under the previous assumption that Tech, Oklahoma, and Texas all win, it seems certain that Oklahoma will be only one spot behind Texas, not two.
The big surprise that I wasn't prepared for was the huge gain that Oklahoma got in Sagarin's ELO_Chess ratings. We are currently #1 in those ratings and Oklahoma is #4. However, we are only ahead by 1.21 points in that ratings set. Oklahoma is now at 92.32 after being at 87.47 before beating Tech. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is #6 in the ratings at 87.07 while Texas A&M is 89th at 66.13 points. While I previously predicted that we would hold a one slot advantage over Oklahoma after next week's games, it now seems highly probable that we will be faced with a one slot deficit instead. This is not good, of course.
So previously I predicted a BCS computer score of 0.94 for us and 0.92 for Oklahoma. The good news is that I now think our score will actually go up a hair to 0.95, but the really bad news is that Oklahoma's computer score now looks to finish at 0.96 instead. We are faced with being behind in the computers after next week and I don't see any way that the humans switch it around enough to help us out.
Simply put, we need a Texas Tech loss to Baylor, an Oklahoma loss to Oklahoma State, or an Oklahoma loss to Missouri.
Here's a BCS Primer for those that need to review the basics.