Using my college basketball ratings, I ran an analysis on the NCAA tournament. I only used the power and standard deviation numbers, not the ones that account for wins and losses, so teams that make a habit of winning close games will not be adjusted in this run. This is the first time I've run such a look at the tourney, and the extent to which favorites are favored surprised me somewhat, but we'll have to see how it goes. First things first, here's the table (HTML Gods willing it will look decent):
| Reg | Team | 1R | 2R | S16 | E8 | F4 | NC | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M I D W E S T |
Louisville | 100.00% | 99.84% | 87.27% | 64.51% | 40.42% | 21.20% | 9.66% |
| Alabama St. | 40.75% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Morehead St. | 59.25% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Ohio St. | 100.00% | 78.00% | 11.73% | 4.20% | 1.03% | 0.14% | 0.02% | |
| Siena | 100.00% | 22.00% | 1.00% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Utah | 100.00% | 54.85% | 20.42% | 4.70% | 1.34% | 0.23% | 0.03% | |
| Arizona | 100.00% | 45.15% | 15.20% | 3.13% | 0.80% | 0.12% | 0.02% | |
| Wake Forest | 100.00% | 92.19% | 63.10% | 23.25% | 10.29% | 3.33% | 0.90% | |
| Cleveland St. | 100.00% | 7.81% | 1.29% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| West Virginia | 100.00% | 93.98% | 52.60% | 34.62% | 17.95% | 8.04% | 3.08% | |
| Dayton | 100.00% | 6.02% | 0.60% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Kansas | 100.00% | 93.65% | 46.30% | 29.00% | 14.12% | 5.84% | 2.06% | |
| North Dakota St. | 100.00% | 6.35% | 0.50% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Boston College | 100.00% | 29.16% | 6.56% | 1.00% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% | |
| Southern Cal | 100.00% | 70.84% | 26.00% | 7.02% | 1.98% | 0.37% | 0.06% | |
| Michigan St. | 100.00% | 98.06% | 67.36% | 28.22% | 11.89% | 4.10% | 1.19% | |
| Robert Morris | 100.00% | 1.94% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| W E S T |
Connecticut | 100.00% | 99.99% | 80.10% | 58.75% | 30.71% | 18.40% | 8.30% |
| Chattanooga | 100.00% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| BYU | 100.00% | 79.82% | 18.85% | 8.84% | 2.54% | 0.93% | 0.22% | |
| Texas A&M | 100.00% | 20.18% | 1.06% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Purdue | 100.00% | 93.89% | 49.68% | 16.04% | 5.06% | 1.99% | 0.52% | |
| Northern Iowa | 100.00% | 6.11% | 0.53% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Washington | 100.00% | 85.66% | 47.00% | 15.95% | 5.27% | 2.17% | 0.59% | |
| Mississippi St. | 100.00% | 14.34% | 2.79% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Marquette | 100.00% | 78.60% | 26.01% | 6.95% | 2.24% | 0.79% | 0.18% | |
| Utah St. | 100.00% | 21.40% | 2.60% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Missouri | 100.00% | 96.66% | 71.05% | 32.75% | 17.47% | 9.48% | 3.91% | |
| Cornell | 100.00% | 3.34% | 0.34% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| California | 100.00% | 66.01% | 9.65% | 2.88% | 0.68% | 0.19% | 0.03% | |
| Maryland | 100.00% | 33.99% | 2.95% | 0.58% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | |
| Memphis | 100.00% | 99.30% | 87.33% | 56.64% | 35.89% | 22.63% | 11.12% | |
| Cal St.-Northridge | 100.00% | 0.70% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| E A S T |
Pittsburgh | 100.00% | 99.69% | 86.37% | 77.60% | 46.58% | 23.73% | 13.95% |
| East Tennessee St. | 100.00% | 0.31% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Oklahoma St. | 100.00% | 49.47% | 5.74% | 3.13% | 0.66% | 0.11% | 0.02% | |
| Tennessee | 100.00% | 50.53% | 7.87% | 4.28% | 1.04% | 0.21% | 0.05% | |
| Florida St. | 100.00% | 42.94% | 16.65% | 1.69% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% | |
| Wisconsin | 100.00% | 57.06% | 25.84% | 3.41% | 0.58% | 0.08% | 0.01% | |
| Xavier | 100.00% | 94.85% | 57.11% | 9.88% | 2.16% | 0.38% | 0.08% | |
| Portland St. | 100.00% | 5.15% | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| UCLA | 100.00% | 94.94% | 65.44% | 32.97% | 16.28% | 6.98% | 3.45% | |
| Virginia Commonwealth | 100.00% | 5.06% | 0.51% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Villanova | 100.00% | 99.53% | 34.05% | 10.96% | 3.37% | 0.88% | 0.27% | |
| American | 100.00% | 0.47% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Texas | 100.00% | 65.28% | 12.61% | 3.74% | 0.89% | 0.18% | 0.04% | |
| Minnesota | 100.00% | 34.72% | 4.13% | 0.79% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% | |
| Duke | 100.00% | 99.93% | 83.27% | 51.50% | 28.10% | 13.37% | 7.30% | |
| Binghamton | 100.00% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| S O U T H |
North Carolina | 100.00% | 99.96% | 93.75% | 69.73% | 56.32% | 37.78% | 26.17% |
| Radford | 100.00% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| LSU | 100.00% | 60.12% | 4.97% | 1.17% | 0.32% | 0.05% | 0.01% | |
| Butler | 100.00% | 39.88% | 1.28% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Illinois | 100.00% | 91.14% | 26.01% | 4.26% | 1.63% | 0.38% | 0.10% | |
| Western Kentucky | 100.00% | 8.86% | 0.34% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Gonzaga | 100.00% | 98.05% | 73.43% | 24.65% | 15.54% | 7.17% | 3.52% | |
| Akron | 100.00% | 1.95% | 0.21% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Arizona St. | 100.00% | 86.50% | 44.05% | 22.99% | 6.35% | 2.17% | 0.81% | |
| Temple | 100.00% | 13.50% | 1.79% | 0.24% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Syracuse | 100.00% | 98.33% | 54.09% | 28.20% | 7.49% | 2.49% | 0.90% | |
| Stephen F. Austin | 100.00% | 1.67% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Clemson | 100.00% | 72.06% | 30.46% | 13.70% | 3.23% | 0.95% | 0.30% | |
| Michigan | 100.00% | 27.94% | 5.45% | 1.27% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% | |
| Oklahoma | 100.00% | 99.86% | 64.09% | 33.60% | 8.96% | 3.02% | 1.12% | |
| Morgan St. | 100.00% | 0.14% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
As expected, North Carolina is the favorite heading in and is expected to win the tournament a quarter of the time. That they are nearly twice as likely to win as the next most likely team, Pittsburgh, was very surprising to me.
And, of course, the draw affects a team's outlook. Louisville is 6th in the power ratings but the #1 seed moves them to 4th most likely to win the tournament. Pittsburgh is calculated as the most likely team to reach the regional final as the other half of their 8-team subregion is weaker than North Carolina's (mostly due to the Zags being in the South).
The good news for Texas fans is that the odds of the Longhorns winning the tournament are roughly the same as the odds of a PGA tour golfer making a hole-in-one on any given Par 3 hole. So it could happen.