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The Road to Omaha

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Essentially repeating the analysis I did for the basketball tourney, I have run the baseball tournament through the superregionals. There it gets a little trickier for my rudimentary analysis with a double elimination setup, so I will likely revisit the analysis after the supers and analyze the CWS itself.

Reg Seed Team Super Omaha
A
u
s
t
i
n
1 Texas 73.08% 39.11%
4 Army 0.30% 0.00%
3 Boston College 6.48% 0.88%
2 Texas St. 20.13% 6.02%
F
t

W
o
r
t
h
1 TCU 39.39% 19.82%
4 Wright St. 0.10% 0.00%
3 Oregon St. 37.83% 22.60%
2 Texas A&M 22.69% 11.56%
A
t
l
a
n
t
a
1 Georgia Tech 65.48% 39.40%
4 Georgia St. 0.63% 0.04%
3 Southern Miss 15.80% 5.76%
2 Elon 18.10% 7.19%
G
a
i
n
e
s
1 Florida 72.06% 39.68%
4 Bethune-Cookman 0.77% 0.03%
3 Jacksonville 3.84% 0.47%
2 Miami (FL) 23.33% 7.43%
T
e
m
p
e
1 Arizona St. 88.04% 77.97%
4 Kent St. 0.37% 0.04%
3 Cal Poly 5.08% 2.00%
2 Oral Roberts 6.51% 2.74%
C
l
e
m
s
o
n
1 Clemson 45.33% 7.28%
4 Tennessee Tech 0.08% 0.00%
3 Oklahoma St. 26.16% 4.55%
2 Alabama 28.43% 5.43%
G
r
e
e
n
1 East Carolina 72.94% 48.69%
4 Binghamton 0.03% 0.00%
3 George Mason 1.48% 0.16%
2 South Carolina 25.55% 12.28%
C
h
a
p
e
l
1 North Carolina 57.23% 26.14%
4 Dartmouth 0.30% 0.01%
3 Kansas 20.78% 5.85%
2 Coastal Carolina 21.68% 6.87%
F
u
l
l
e
r
1 Cal St.-Fullerton 86.33% 78.18%
4 Utah 1.35% 0.35%
3 Gonzaga 6.85% 3.30%
2 Georgia Southern 5.46% 2.51%
L
o
u
i
s
1 Louisville 31.08% 3.85%
4 Indiana 3.23% 0.11%
3 Vanderbilt 32.63% 5.41%
2 Middle Tennessee St. 33.06% 6.29%
T
a
l
l
a
1 Florida St. 56.83% 17.76%
4 Marist 0.02% 0.00%
3 Ohio St. 3.50% 0.24%
2 Georgia 39.64% 11.64%
N
o
r
m
a
n
1 Oklahoma 65.32% 52.00%
4 Wichita St. 0.91% 0.13%
3 Washington St. 20.29% 11.42%
2 Arkansas 13.48% 6.81%
I
r
v
i
n
e
1 UC-Irvine 53.92% 37.39%
4 Fresno St. 1.19% 0.16%
3 San Diego St. 7.63% 2.66%
2 Virginia 37.27% 23.13%
O
x
f
o
r
d
1 Mississippi 61.89% 26.59%
4 Monmouth 0.21% 0.00%
3 Western Kentucky 15.85% 3.48%
2 Missouri 22.05% 6.59%
H
o
u
s
t
o
n
1 Rice 53.26% 25.04%
4 Sam Houston St. 5.04% 0.80%
3 Xavier 0.36% 0.01%
2 Kansas St. 41.34% 18.24%
B
a
t
o
n
1 LSU 71.89% 46.59%
4 Southern 0.19% 0.00%
3 Baylor 20.60% 7.61%
2 Minnesota 7.31% 1.70%

Arizona St. and Fullerton have gift-wrapped roads to the CWS thanks to weak regional pairings for the supers. Louisville is the 3rd-most likely team to advance out of their own regional.