clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Some Quick Thoughts on Turnover Margin

New, comments

Chris Applewhite's excellent Regression to the Mean piece got me off of my ass to type a half dozen words in the google search box. After wiping off my brow and the pool of sweat on my keyboard I pulled up the 2008 Collegiate Football Turnover Margin rankings. Most of you probably knew this already, but Texas ended up tied for 47th. (Keep in mind I've had a busy summer consisting of drinking Mai Tai's while eluding angry black men.)

Here's the breakdown from SI.

In my opinion, the Longhorn turnover margin ranking is utterly amazing considering the Horns lead the nation in sacks. Not to challenge Huck L. Berry's statistical prowess, but scientifically speaking, sacks lead to like, fumbles and interceptions and shit. Certainly more than 10 and 6 respectively. For perspective, consider Florida had 9 recovered fumbles and 26 interceptions. OU went 15 and 19.

If we're talking regression to the mean in this category, I find OU's 2 fumbles lost to be a statistical anomaly. That number has to go up. Fifteen fumbles recovered, I'd be surprised if they matched that number again.

So projecting likelihoods next year, if I was a betting man, I'd say bet on the Horns being top 10 in this category at the very least.

I'll also contend that Oklahoma has a solid chance to suffer a double digit net loss as they're almost assuredly going to lose 5 or more fumbles this year (only CSU lost less than 5 in 2008). Additionally, it's a statistical improbability that the Sooners get to 15 recoveries again this year. Wake and Minnesota were the only BCS schools that recovered more fumbles than Oklahoma. I'm guessing 11.5 would be your over/under in Vegas.

Plus the ball has a tendency to bounce a bit funnier when you're starting a TE at center.

Again, sorry if you've already been apprised of this info, I just thought is was worth revisiting after ChrisApplewhite's article.