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Non-obvious obvious things

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Here is an example: Last year, mere seconds after the final gun, Florida was named both National Champion and Favorites to Repeat as National Champions. Really it was when everybody announced they were coming back, but nobody expected Tebow to leave, and the defense was young regardless.

And that was it for the next 9 months. Something gets determined way too far in advance and people just stop thinking critically about it. Tebow is the "everything but God, and that's all there is to it" according to some dude on ESPN. So he is going to feel really silly when Florida doesn't make the championship game.

Florida doesn't make the championship game

Are they one of the two best teams in the country? Probably, by season's end. But that's not how sports work, and college sports even less so. The best teams don't always win unless they are that much better than everyone else, and UF isn't that much better than everyone else.

First, let's remember that while they retained their driver, they lost their engine. You don't replace the explosiveness that Percy Harvin adds, and certainly not with David Nelson. Tebow is good at getting the ball where it needs to go, but it was Harvin who actually ran around the three guys to turn it into a score. When UF lacks that explosive element, the offense has a tendency to grind to a halt. Will Demps is fast but he isn't a creator. Everyone else pretty much defines 'possession receiver.'

Second, they've still got an SEC schedule. It's an easy one, relatively speaking, but they still have LSU, Georgia, and a smattering of improved teams that could beat them on a good Saturday. It'll only take one loss, and this team is not above that one loss.

Nobody repeats in CFB for a reason. It's really hard to win one because of the luck factor involved. Want to bet on Florida catching all those breaks twice in a row? I don't.

Texas loses to OU

A worse Texas squad convincingly beat a better OU squad, sure. But most of us assumed OU would lose a bitchload of talent and called it a day back in October. We're winning again next year. Most of the major players on the team are back though, including, inexplicably, Sam Bradford. Texas is better, but Bradford is good enough to beat you if he has any kind of talent at WR. If we can't mount a pass rush, we could lose.

Not to mention that the coaching advantages tend to swing back and forth from year to year. Will Stoops and Co. answer now that they have a year's worth of tape to look at? We did pretty much break out that offense against them for the first time. They were winning before we did.

Texas is really, really good, but OU is really good. It's not a given.

Baylor doesn't become a bowl threat

Contrary to CloseToJumping's position, I will stand by this until I die: 2008 Baylor was a one man show. Without Robert Griffin, they are the same two win team they always were, and would be again this season. Their defense will deteriorate further without former DC Bill Bradley in 2009 and beyond. There is only one hope for them here: the Single Player Legitimization Process. It goes like this:

- good player come to shitty school
- good player elevates team long enough to convince recruits to come there
- good player leaves, team goes 4-7 despite being picked for mid-major level bowl
- young recruits come into their own and establish a respectable program from then on out

Everybody is a little too willing, I think, to give Briles credit for a turnaround that should largely be attributed to what is probably already the best player in school history. Does Briles draw up the play where Griffin drops back, sees nothing, then runs for 30 yards? No. He gets credit for telling Kirby Freeman to sit his useless ass on the bench halfway through a game Freeman had been looking forward to for months, certainly, but it is my opinion that Griffin makes the team 4 wins better than they would be otherwise. How well that "success" is carried to the future depends on the next couple classes in Waco.

You have three years to establish yourself, Briles. Fail, and it's business as usual at BU.

USC wins the Pac-10 again

Ok . . . this one is probably happening.