Well week 5 was certainly one to remember and could have been even better had CSU not crapped the second half bed. A double digit first half lead on dominating line play was erased in the second half by horrible effort and inexplicable play calling. Ah well, 6-1 while pocketing a gluttonous 8 units isn't a bad week.
If you're scoring at home we have an en fuego 10-3 record over the last two weeks for a cool 10 units minus juice. And this week, it gets even better with an official Barking Introduction to Huck's Wise Guy supercomputer that should revolutionize the gambling world with a little help from the expert direction of my 5 year old's Magic 8 Ball. If you're ipowers, that's a child's toy, bro. Huck's system was a phenomenal 82-43 on a star basis last season, and with a couple of tweaks from basement boy himself, the system should be even better in 2009.
Anywho, on to the bets where I'll indicate which games Huck and I agree on.
Nebraska Cornhuskers -3 @ Missouri Tigers. Moving this from 2 to the rare 3 Unit play because of strong technical backing from Huck's computations, and because I'm betting my bookie's money.
Barring a miracle pass by the Joe Montana-esque Tyrod Taylor and two costly turnovers in Blacksburg, the resurgent Cornhuskers would be a solid 4-0 on the year with probably the best non-con win of any Big 12 school. It would be tough to use the other 3 games on NU's schedule to project performance eventhough they waxed FLA ATL, Arkansas State, and ULL.
Instead we'll focus on the heartbreaker against the Hokies, which was a game the Huskers controlled from start to finish while dominating the boxscore. NU had 350 yards of offense, held the Hokies to just 178, and suffered from two Zac Lee interceptions and an inability to find pay-dirt, kicking 5 field goals. They also held a quality ground attack to just 2.3 yards per carry on the road. NU's defense rates to do the same against a poor Mizzou rushing attack which will then put a ton of pressure on freshman QB Blaine Gabbert to move the chains.
The Tigers come into the contest with a misleading yet surprising 4-0 record. Surprising because Mizzou is, well, undefeated, misleading because they've struggled against bad defenses like Nevada and Bowling Green, and caught an Illinois club on the brink of program turmoil. The alarming game if you're a Tiger fan is the BGSU performance. Bowling Green allows points in bunches and the Tigers could only manage 27 points on a paltry 178 yards passing. The Huskers defense will be the toughest team the Tigers have faced to date. And certainly the first real test for a freshman QB.
Defensively, Mizzou will face the only balanced attack they've faced in this 5 game stretch. Zac Lee is an experienced QB and he can lean on a ferocious rushing attack that ran it for over 200 yards in Blacksburg against a great V. Tech seven. If you can rush it and stop the run, you're going to win a lot of games. Throw in the experience advantage the Huskers have at the QB position and I think NU wins comfortably. Mizzou is a year or two away. I say 31 to 17 Huskers but you may also want to check out the Atomic Teeth guys for the Mizzou slant.
TCU Horned Frogs -10 @ Air Force Falcons. 2 units.
I can probably sell you on this bet with one sentence if you consider that TCU will be playing defense in this game. Air Force has not scored an offensive touchdown in its last 8 quarters of play. And it's not like they were playing the '85 Bears in those tilts, they were facing those glass eating marble shitting world beating defenses of San Diego State and Navy. Uggggh. Gaining 51 and 57 yards through the air respectively against these two clubs. You think they'll be able to line it up and run it down the throats of a Gary Patterson coached club. Not likely.
TCU on the other hand has gone on the road and knocked off Clemson in a game in which the Frogs had nearly 400 yards of offense. TCU also went on the road to destroy a decent Virginia club rolling up 400 yards while holding the Cavs to just 177 yards of offense on 7 first downs. Who else does that? Not Southern Miss or UNC. Air Force will be a light snack and after a lackluster performance vs. SMU, the Frogs will have radar lock focus on the Falcons. TCU big, 31 to 7.
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Air Force Falcons under 44. 2 units.
Going to use the tried and true formula that if one team can't score and the other team isn't Texas Tech, the under is the play. Plus, Huck's computer loves this total. Under it is. 31 to 7.
Kentucky Wildcats +11 @ South Carolina Gamecocks. 1 unit.
Should be a hangover of sorts for the Cocks after they knocked off Ole Miss. Laying double digits with this underachieving USC offense in a conference game is unbelievably tough to do. If Kentucky gets two TD's they cover. I think they get 2 and a half. 21 to 17 Cocks.
Lighter card this week. But don't be afraid to play Huck's starred picks. Except for Florida. I don't think it takes Tebow's health in to account or his divine healing capabilities. Amen.
Good luck on your action.