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Forecasting the Big 12 South - Oct. 19, 2009

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I first posted this spreadsheet weeks ago in a post reply on the Barking Carnival, and I have been updating it weekly, but not posting it. Basically, I'm trying to capture the probabilities of different outcomes for the Big 12 South seasons. I use the Sagarin ratings to predict point spreads, and then use the point spreads to predict odds of winning each game. I then come up with a geometric mean chance of winning each game (I call it the "root" odds) to be used in binomial statistic analysis. This shortcut allows me to avoid writing macros for Monte Carlo modeling. I think Huck's models and the ones on Atomic Teeth are great; this is just another way to look at it.

The Sagarin Predictor model (the one that the bookies use, and that takes into account point differential) rewarded Texas much more this week than the Sagarin ELO-Chess (the model the BCS uses that doesn't take into account point differential). Texas Tech also jumped in the Sagarins. All the other Big 12 South teams dropped a little. BTW, this is the first week that the Sagarin model has enough game data to be unbiased.

Where do the odds of winning each game come from? I have years of data from Phil Steele on Big 12 south games and point spreads, so I actually made a spreadsheet from past games and outcomes, and have used that in the model.

Takeaways: Texas has played its two toughest games on the schedule. Numbers 3 and 4 come up the next two weeks. Texas will be double digit favorites in each. Obviously, Texas is bowl-eligible now.

OU is a very good team that has a real chance of going 7 - 5 or worse. At NU actually looks tougher for them, on paper, than Texas at a neutral site. It will be interesting to see how their players respond. They laid it all out last Saturday, and almost pulled an upset for the ages. Will all the drama of this season start to wear them down?

Sagarin is unimpressed with OSU. They will be favorites in three of their remaining six games. The Georgia win doesn't look as impressive now.

Tech is looking to put together a nice season. Our win over them looks less ugly every week. They will be favored in every game they have left except OU. Remember that OU hasn't won in Lubbock since 2003. Leach seems to have fixed his locker room.

Was TAMU really taking KSU for granted? They really blew it, and Sagarin hammered them for it. Right now, the Ags do not look like they will be favorites in any of their remaining games. ISU and BU are must wins, but that won't get them to bowl-eligibility.

This week is the season for Baylor. They have a shot with OSU visiting, just not a very good one. A few weeks ago, the BU/TAMU game looked like it would determine which team went to a bowl. Now it looks like it will only determine who gets to 5 wins. Why does Baylor have a greater chance of reaching bowl eligibility (6 wins) than TAMU, despite having fewer expected wins (i.e. the sum of each games odds of winning)? Because TAMU has two games with almost no chance of winning, which kills its "root" odds. TAMU probably has a higher chance than shown. They just have to win all three of the games they have a legit chance in- at CU, ISU, and BU. Thoughts?

Texas 89.76 Sag Pts Odds
ULM 9 67.93 -25.33 W Expected wins 11.27
@Wyo 10 58.73 -27.53 W Exp. B12 rec 7.29
TT 2 84.11 -9.15 W root odds 0.87
UTEP 12 58.17 -35.09 W
CU 8 69.68 -23.58 W Bowl Eligible Odds 100.00%
OU 1 88.65 -1.11 W 10 win odds 16.74%
@Mizzou 4 74.95 -11.31 0.78 11 win odds 38.50%
@OSU 3 75.78 -10.48 0.77 12 win odds 44.76%
UCF 11 61.63 -31.63 0.98
@BU 6 68.87 -17.39 0.92
KU 5 78.24 -15.02 0.87
@TAMU 7 64.68 -21.58 0.95
OU 88.65
BYU 6 80.55 -11.60 L Expected wins 7.495
Idaho St 12 41.87 -50.28 W Exp. B12 rec 5.495
Tulsa 8 72.55 -19.60 W root odds 0.71
@Mia 4 83.44 -1.71 L
BU 9 68.87 -23.28 W Bowl Eligible Odds 93.57%
Texas 2 89.76 1.11 L 10 win odds 0.00%
@KU 5 78.24 -6.91 0.74 11 win odds 0.00%
KSU 10 68.73 -23.42 0.98 12 win odds 0.00%
@NU 1 88.25 3.10 0.39
TAMU 11 64.68 -27.47 0.98
@tt 3 84.11 -1.04 0.505
OSU 7 75.78 -16.37 0.9
OSU 75.78
UGA 8 74.96 -4.32 W Expected wins 7.505
Hou 7 75.25 -4.03 L Exp. B12 rec 4.505
Rice 12 49.08 -30.20 W root odds 0.34
Gram 11 49.41 -29.87 W
@TAMU 5 64.68 -7.60 W Bowl Eligible Odds 97.80%
Mizzou 9 74.95 -4.33 W 10 win odds 1.83%
@BU 6 68.87 -3.41 0.61 11 win odds 0.16%
Texas 2 89.76