clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Forecasting The Big 12 South- Nov. 2

New, comments

Texas and TAMU had the big jumps in the Sagarin Predictor model that drives this analysis. Texas is now listed as one of the nation's top 3 teams, and would be a .5 point dog to Florida and a .5 point favorite over Bama. TAMU is a solid, middle of the road Big 12 squad, which is much better than they looked three weeks ago.

Texas has the inside track for the Big 12 Championship game, and looks to be a 23 point favorite at BU, a 20 point favorite hosting KU, and a 15 point favorite at TAMU. For comparison, in 2006, going into the last three games, we were 17 point favorites hosting OSU, 15 point favorites at KSU, and 13 point favorites hosting TAMU.

TAMU looks like they will be bowl eligible, needing a collapse against both CU and BU to not be so. BU isn't going to make it, although they could screw up TAMU's season.

The OSU/TT game in two weeks will go a long ways towards deciding their respective bowl fates, and looks to be a very even game.

The OU/NU game is huge. NU looks like the North's strongst team, but will have a hard time winning the North with a loss to OU. However, if OU loses, it will be great because...OU will have lost.

Texas 92.62 Sag Pts Odds
ULM 11 64.53 -31.59 W Expected (sum) 11.74
@Wyo 8 59.47 -29.65 W Exp. B12 rec 7.77
TT 3 82.24 -13.88 W root odds 0.93
UTEP 12 58.99 -37.13 W
CU 10 64.99 -31.13 W Bowl Eligible Odds 100.00%
OU 1 87.80 -4.82 W 10 win odds 2.38%
@Mizzou 5 74.14 -14.98 W 11 win odds 21.46%
@OSU 2 78.78 -10.34 W 12 win odds 76.16%
UCF 9 66.15 -29.97 0.97
@BU 7 66.47 -22.65 0.95
KU 6 75.88 -20.24 0.95
@TAMU 4 74.30 -14.82 0.87
OU 87.80
BYU 7 77.32 -13.98 L Expected (sum) 7.765
Idaho St 12 35.93 -55.37 W Exp. B12 rec 5.765
Tulsa 10 67.46 -23.84 W root odds 0.67
@Mia 3 82.32 -1.98 L
BU 11 66.47 -24.83 W Bowl Eligible Odds 98.79%
Texas 1 92.62 4.82 L 10 win odds 0.00%
@KU 5 75.88 -8.42 W 11 win odds 0.00%
KSU 9 71.94 -19.36 W 12 win odds 0.00%
@NU 2 83.96 -0.34 0.505
TAMU 8 74.30 -17.00 0.92
@tt 4 82.24 -2.06 0.53
OSU 6 78.78 -12.52 0.81
OSU 78.78
UGA 7 75.52 -6.76 W Expected (sum) 8.27
Hou 6 76.51 -5.77 L Exp. B12 rec 5.27
Rice 12 47.18 -35.10 W root odds 0.49
Gram 11 49.94 -32.34 W
@TAMU 4 74.30 -0.98 W Bowl Eligible Odds 100.00%
Mizzou 8 74.14 -8.14 W 10 win odds 5.77%
@BU 9 66.47 -8.81 W 11 win odds 0.00%
Texas 2 92.62 10.34 L 12 win odds 0.00%
@ISU 5 71.22 -4.06 0.66
TT 3 82.24 -0.04 0.5
CU 10 64.99 -17.29 0.92
@OU 1 87.80 12.52 0.19
TT 82.24
ND 10 53.39 -32.35 W Expected (sum) 7.87
Rice 12 47.18 -38.56 W Exp. B12 rec 4.87
@Texas 1 92.62 13.88 L root odds 0.60
@Hou 5 76.51 -2.23 L
UNM 11 49.06 -36.68 W Bowl Eligible Odds 100.00%
KSU 8 71.94 -13.80 W 10 win odds 0.00%
@NU 2 83.96 5.22 W 11 win odds 0.00%
TAMU 7 74.30 -11.44 L 12 win odds 0.00%
KU 6 75.88 -9.86 W
@OSU 4 78.78 0.04 0.5
OU 3 87.80 2.06 0.47
@BU 9 66.47 -15.77 0.9
TAMU 74.30
UNM 12 49.06 -28.74 W Expected (sum) 6.72
Utah St 10 65.48 -12.32 W Exp. B12 rec 3.72
UAB 11 59.60 -18.20 W root odds 0.28
Ark 4 79.88 5.58 L
OSU 6 78.78 0.98 L Bowl Eligible Odds 72.74%
@KSU 5 71.94 1.14 L 10 win odds 0.00%
@TT 3 82.24 11.44 W 11 win odds 0.00%
ISU 8 71.22 -6.58 W 12 win odds 0
@CU 7 64.99 -5.81 0.73
@OU 1 87.80 17.00 0.08
BU 9 66.47 -11.33 0.78
Texas 2 92.62 14.82 0.13
BU 66.47
@WF 7 73.11 10.14 W Expected (sum) 3.59
Conn 10 74.08 4.11 L Exp. B12 rec 0.59
NWSt 12 38.09 -31.88 W root odds 0.19
Kent St 11 63.71 -6.26 W
@OU 1 87.80 24.83 L Bowl Eligible Odds 2.32%
@ISU 9 71.22 8.25 L 10 win odds 0.00%
OSU 8 78.78 8.81 L 11 win odds 0.00%
NU 4 83.96 13.99 L 12 win odds 0.00%
@Mizzou 6 74.14 11.17 0.22
Texas 2 92.62 22.65 0.05
@TAMU 5 74.30 11.33 0.22
TT 3 82.24 15.77 0.1