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Forecasting the Big 12 South and BCS, Nov. 9

Not a lot of change for Texas this week, because we were expected to win. TAMU's projections took a hit with their loss (they still project to give Texas its 4th toughest game), and OU needs to win out to reach 8 wins before their bowl. TT/OSU is a big game. I have added a section on the bottom for undefeated teams. TCU is waiting for Texas to stumble (would they stay ahead of an undefeated Cincy?), and BSU hired that PR firm because TCU has supplanted them. I figure the chances of an undefeated team coming out of the SEC at over 70%, given honest officiating, and 100% given reality.

In order, here are the games involving undefeated teams that are most likely to get one beat...

SEC CG (duh)

Cincy @ Pitt

B12 CG

Bama @ Auburn

Texas @ TAMU

Florida at S. Carol.

Cincy hosting WVU

Texas 92.81 Sag Pts Odds
ULM 9 66.14 -30.17 W Expected (sum) 11.78
@Wyo 11 55.93 -33.38 W Exp. B12 rec 7.78
TT 3 82.24 -14.07 W root odds 0.93
UTEP 12 57.54 -38.77 W
CU 10 64.83 -31.48 W Bowl Eligible Odds 100.00%
OU 1 87.82 -4.99 W 10 win odds 1.57%
@Mizzou 5 73.04 -16.27 W 11 win odds 19.08%
@OSU 2 80.96 -8.35 W 12 win odds 79.34%
UCF 8 66.21 -30.10 W
@BU 6 68.37 -20.94 0.95
KU 7 74.23 -22.08 0.96
@TAMU 4 73.64 -15.67 0.87
OU 87.82
BYU 5 80.28 -7.54 L Expected (sum) 7.23
Idaho St 12 37.00 -54.32 W Exp. B12 rec 5.23
Tulsa 11 67.82 -23.50 W root odds 0.72
@Mia 3 84.01 -0.31 L
BU 10 68.37 -22.95 W Bowl Eligible Odds 97.90%
Texas 1 92.81 4.99 L 6 win odds 18.65%
@KU 6 74.23 -10.09 W 7 win odds 43.40%
KSU 9 72.47 -18.85 W 8 win odds 37.95%
@NU 2 85.15 0.83 L
TAMU 8 73.64 -17.68 0.93
@tt 4 82.24 -2.08 0.53
OSU 7 80.96 -10.36 0.77
OSU 80.96
UGA 6 76.59 -7.87 W Expected (sum) 8.71
Hou 7 75.70 -8.76 L Exp. B12 rec 5.71
Rice 11 48.99 -35.47 W root odds 0.49
Gram 12 46.95 -37.51 W
@TAMU 4 73.64 -3.82 W Bowl Eligible Odds 100.00%
Mizzou 9 73.04 -11.42 W 10 win odds 51.89%
@BU 8 68.37 -9.09 W 9 win odds 36.53%
Texas 2 92.81 8.35 L 10 win odds 11.58%
@ISU 5 68.68 -8.78 W
TT 3 82.24 -2.22 0.53
CU 10 64.83 -19.63 0.95
@OU 1 87.82 10.36 0.23
TT 82.24
ND 10 51.87 -33.87 W Expected (sum) 7.78
Rice 12 48.99 -36.75 W Exp. B12 rec 4.78
@Texas 1 92.81 14.07 L root odds 0.57
@Hou 5 75.70 -3.04 L
UNM 11 48.99 -36.75 W Bowl Eligible Odds 100.00%
KSU 8 72.47 -13.27 W 7 win odds 31.58%
@NU 2 85.15 6.41 W 8 win odds 41.93%
TAMU 7 73.64 -12.10 L 9 win odds 18.56%
KU 6 74.23 -11.51 W
@OSU 3 80.96 2.22 0.47
OU 4 87.82 2.08 0.47
@BU 9 68.37 -13.87 0.84
TAMU 73.64
UNM 12 48.99 -28.15 W Expected (sum) 5.96
Utah St 10 63.74 -13.40 W Exp. B12 rec 2.96
UAB 11 60.63 -16.51 W root odds 0.19
Ark 4 80.66 7.02 L
OSU 6 80.96 3.82 L Bowl Eligible Odds 76.00%
@KSU 5 72.47 2.33 L 6 win odds 37.45%
@TT 3 82.24 12.10 W 7 win odds 8.82%
ISU 8 68.68 -8.46 W 8 win odds 0.69%
@CU 7 64.83 -5.31 L
@OU 1 87.82 17.68 0.07
BU 9 68.37 -8.77 0.76
Texas 2 92.81 15.67 0.13
BU 68.37
@WF 7 75.25 10.38 W Expected (sum) 4.45
Conn 10 76.16 4.29 L Exp. B12 rec 1.45
NWSt 12 38.09 -33.78 W root odds 0.12
Kent St 11 62.38 -9.49 W
@OU 1 87.82 22.95 L Bowl Eligible Odds 0.70%
@ISU 9 68.68 3.81 L 5 win odds 28.59%
OSU 8 80.96 9.09 L 6 win odds 4.06%
NU 4 85.15 13.28 L 7 win odds 0.19%
@Mizzou 6 73.04 8.17 W
Texas 2 92.81 20.94 0.05
@TAMU 5 73.64 8.77 0.24
TT 3 82.24 13.87 0.16
Texas 92.81 Sag Pts Odds
@BU 68.37 -20.94 0.95 Undef. 58.89%
KU 74.23 -22.08 0.95
@TAMU 73.64 -15.67 0.87
B12CG 85.15 -7.66 0.75
Florida 93.08
@SC 74.20 -15.38 0.87 Undef. 40.89%
FIU 57.09 -39.49 0.99
FSU 77.61 -18.97 0.94
SECCG 91.99 -1.09 0.505
Bama 91.99
@MSU 76.35 -12.14 0.8 Undef. 30.58%
Chatt 48.28 -47.21 0.99
@Aub 77.16 -11.33 0.78
SECCG 93.08 1.09 0.495
SEC Undef. 71.47%
Cincy 86.57
WVU 75.50 -14.57 0.83 Undef. 40.67%
Ill 64.71 -25.36 0.99
@Pitt 83.42 0.35 0.495
TCU 91.20
Utah 76.69 -18.01 0.93 Undef. 91.15%
@Wyo 55.93 -31.77 0.99
UNM 48.99 -45.71 0.99
BSU 87.29
Idaho 66.20 -24.59 0.99 Undef. 92.18%
@Utah St 63.74 -20.05 0.95
Nevada 67.02 -23.77 0.99
NMSU 46.86 -43.93 0.99