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Let's Review the Big 12 South

Well, we have one weekend left, and all of the B12 south teams are playing each other. Each game has national and conference title implications. Let's take a look at the matchups with an eye to conference game statistics, and see if we get any insight. Note- I'm using the stats from the conference games only (seven games for each school). I'm going to pair schools with their upcoming opponent.


UT 464.7 ypg, 40.0 ppg

TAMU 379.3 ypg, 29.3 ppg

OU 573.9 ypg, 54.3 ppg

OSU 452.7 ypg, 35.9 ppg

TT 539.7 ypg, 45.3 ppg

BU 354.0 ypg, 24.4 ppg

Well, OU is an offensive monster. They are on pace to break the offensive records set by UT in 2005. They get more yards and points than Tech, and do so with a much more balanced run/pass mix. In upcoming games, Tech has the biggest offensive difference over its opponent. OU has the second biggest, and UT has the third. That's eye-opening. We are much better on offense than the Ags, yet the other two games offer bigger disparities.

How do the teams rate in terms of run and pass? First, let's fix the Big 12 official stats. The NCAA counts sacks as running plays, which is misleading. A QB sack is not an unsuccessful running play; it is an unsuccessful passing play. Let's move the sacks to the other ledger as "pass plays" along with pass attempts, and subtract the yards from the passing yardage.

Texas 249 rushes for 1180 yards (4.7 ypc)

TAMU 192 rushes for 795 yards (4.1 ypc)

OU 300 rushes for 1599 yards (5.3 ypc)

OSU 285 rushes for 1563 yards (5.5 ypc)

TT 172 rushes for 861 yards (5.0 ypc)

BU 263 rushes for 1360 yards (5.2 ypc)

Well, everyone runs the ball pretty well except Texas and TAMU. TAMU is the worst. OSU is the best rushing team in the division. Let's look at passing game yardage now (sack yardage subtracted).

Texas 264 plays for 2073 yards (7.9 ypp)

TAMU 297 plays for 1860 yards (6.3 ypp)

OU 255 plays for 2418 yards (9.5 ypp)

OSU 180 plays for 1606 yards (8.9 ypp)

TT 360 plays (!) for 2916 yards (8.1 ypp)

BU 194 plays for 1118 yards (5.8 ypp)

Well, this is a passing league. I was surprised that OSU has such an effective passing game, and that Texas doesn't have more yards per play. Baylor is the worst passing team, but TAMU is not much better. Takeaways from this- TAMU and Baylor are hapless, and OSU is better than I thought. OSU may be the most balanced. Let's look at defense now.

Texas 374.4 ypg, 24.4 ppg

TAMU 505.7 ypg, 43.1 ppg

OU 407.1 ypg, 29.3 ppg

OSU 408.4 ypg, 25.0 ppg

TT 393.6 ypg, 31.9 ppg

BU 442.4 ypg, 31.7 ppg

This is certainly an offensive league. Texas is the class of the league, defensively. Playing the Ags gives us a chance to take our stats even lower. The Sooners are uncharacteristically mediocre defensively. OSU is decent, the Bears are bad, and the Ags are wretched. Let's look at run defense.

Texas 169 runs, 854 yards, 5.1 ypc

TAMU 280 runs, 1566 yards, 5.6 ypc

OU 201 runs, 993 yards, 4.9 ypc

OSU 198 runs, 839 yards, 4.2 ypc

TT 227 runs, 1002 yards, 4.7 ypc

BU 266 runs, 1137 yards, 4.3 ypc

Taking the sacks out really changes perceptions. Texas no longer has the best run defense- OSU does. OU is not that great, and the Ags are horrible. Teams call a lot of running plays against the Ags. Let's look at pass defense.

Texas 292 plays, 1767 yards, 6.1 ypp

TAMU 243 plays, 1974 yards, 8.1 ypp

OU 312 plays, 1857 yards, 6.0 ypp

OSU 306 plays, 2020 yards, 6.6 ypp

TT 245 plays, 1693 yards, 6.9 ypp

BU 254 plays, 1960 yards, 7.7 ypp.

Texas and OU are the best against the pass, and TAMU and BU are the worst.

What does all this suggest about the coming games? Texas should kill the Ags. The Sooners are better than the Cowboys, but the Cowboys can win if OU only brings its "B" game. The Cowboys' running game gives them a lot of options. They need to win the turnover battle.

Baylor has no chance unless Tech is flat and the Bears play over their heads. Their weakness (pass defense) is paired with the Raiders' strength (pass offense).