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Super Regionals Preview

All times local

TCU at Texas
Friday 2 p.m. (ESPN2HD), Saturday 12 p.m. (ESPNHD), Sunday 3 p.m. (ESPNHD) if nec.

Ratings say: Texas 53.5%

A highly competitive matchup between 2 of the Top 5 teams in the current power ratings; this is the second year in a row that the Horned Frogs and Longhorns meet in the super regionals when the numbers say both belong in Omaha. TCU would be ever so slightly favored if the series were taking place in Fort Worth. Texas comes in with the #15 offense and #3 defense while TCU brings the #4 offense and #7 defense to Austin. Keep in mind that all of the rankings used in this preview are park-adjusted and Disch-Falk is an extreme pitchers' park with an adjusted multi-year park factor of 82 this season. Plenty to like about this series aside from the double-sided screwjob by the NCAA committee. Texas rates as a 10.0% shot to win it all at this point with TCU at 8.3% moving forward with both teams trailing only Arizona State and UCLA in the probabilities. In fact, according to the ratings odds are roughly 50/50 that the eventual champ will come from those four squads.

Vanderbilt at Florida State
Friday 12 p.m. (ESPN2), Saturday 1 p.m. (ESPN), Sunday 1 p.m. (ESPN) if nec.

Ratings say: Florida State 50.9%

Pretty much a coin flip between these two teams in Tallahassee in the weakest overall super regional according to the numbers. Combined probability of winning the title for Vandy and FSU is 6.1% at this point. Florida State's #16 offense and #26 defense will take on the Commodores' #32 offense and #14 defense.

Cal State-Fullerton at UCLA
Friday 7:30 p.m. (ESPN2), Saturday 4 p.m. (ESPN2), Sunday 7 p.m. (ESPN2) if nec.

Ratings say: UCLA 55.1%

The second great matchup from a quality of both teams standpoint in the supers. UCLA is currently second in the power ratings thanks to their #17 rated offense and #1 rated defense and are given an 11.5% chance of winning it all. The Bruins swept past LSU and UC-Irvine in what was a tough regional draw. Fullerton was shocked by Minnesota but ran off four straight wins to advance. The Titans are at 8.1% to take the title and bring the #3 offense, #8 defense, and #4 power rating to Los Angeles.

Miami (FL) at Florida
Friday 7 p.m. (ESPNHD), Saturday 7 p.m. (ESPN2HD), Sunday 7 p.m. (ESPN2HD) if nec.

Ratings say: Florida 53.0%

The Gators rode an impressive win over Oregon State and a 15-0 demolition of Florida Atlantic to their regional title to set up the primetime (read: SEC on ESPN) matchup for this half of the draw. The Hurricanes survived Texas A&M and the local weather in winning what became a 5-day regional in Miami. Despite the #3 national seed, Florida is pegged at 4.1% to leave Rosenblatt as champions while Miami is at 3.6%. The Gators bring the 27th ranked offense and 10th ranked defense into the series against Miami's balanced #18 offense and #18 defense.

Arkansas at Arizona State
Saturday 6 p.m. (ESPNU), Sunday 7 p.m. (ESPN2), Monday 4 p.m. (ESPN2) if nec.

Ratings say: Arizona State 74.7%

The computer considers the Sun Devils the clear favorite at this point, giving them a 20.6% probability of winning the national championship. Their #1 power rating comes on the strength of the 6th-ranked offense and 2nd-ranked defense in the country, a defense that is annually somewhat overlooked because of the Packard Stadium's offense-friendly nature. The Razorbacks' home park, meanwhile, has played as an extreme hitters' park this season which is somewhat of an outlier compared to previous seasons. While they're used to a park factor in the 110 range, this year's single year factor is 149. The adjusted 127 multi-year factor helps explain Arkansas' #79 offense and #4 defense ratings. Still, park effects wash out when looking at the overall power rating and the Hogs are #17 and come into this series as significant underdogs.

Alabama at Clemson
Saturday 6 p.m. (ESPNU), Sunday 7 p.m. (ESPN2), Monday 1/7 p.m. (ESPN2) if nec.

Ratings say: Clemson 59.3%

No surprise that this is the second weakest super regional by the numbers as it's a matchup of two #2 seeds. Clemson is at 4.8% and Alabama at 2.0% to win it all. There may be some runs in this matchup as the Tigers come in with only the 37th-rated defense while the Crimson Tide are at #30 on the year. Both squads were extended to Game 7 in their regional but scored double digit runs to advance to this weekend. The difference should come down to offenses as Clemson's #2 run scoring production should see them past Alabama's 29th-ranked attack.

Oklahoma at Virginia
Saturday 3 p.m. (ESPNU), Sunday 4 p.m. (ESPN), Monday 1/7 p.m. (ESPN2)

Ratings say: Virginia 56.1%

Many may be surprised that the Cavaliers are not favored by more. There may be some cause for concern, though, in the fact that Virginia was only able to outscore St. John's 10-9 in two matchups in their easy regional draw where they hosted a 3 seed and two 4 seeds by true strength. The Sooners, meanwhile, possess the #14 power rating in the nation thanks to a 28th-ranked offense and a 12th-ranked defense. Oklahoma is a significantly tougher test than any of the Cavaliers' regional opponents and this projects as a low-scoring series despite a hitters' park as Virginia has the #30 offense and #6 defense in the country.

South Carolina at Coastal Carolina
12 p.m (ESPNU), 1 p.m. (ESPN), 1/7 p.m. (ESPN2)

Ratings say: Coastal Carolina 64.7%

Like Virginia, the Gamecocks advanced through a weak regional field although South Carolina did not lose any games. The Chanticleers needed two heart-stopping wins against College of Charleston to advance, including a bottom of the ninth game-winning home run and an extra inning win on Monday. Coastal Carolina has played a weak overall schedule but 55 wins is impressive regardless of the opposition and they are the #8 team in the power ratings based on their #10 offense and #15 defense. The Gamecocks are only 21st in the power ratings due mostly to a somewhat anemic #82 offense. South Carolina will need their 9th-rated defense to step up if they want to win the series. There's hope for the offense, though, as Coastal Carolina gave up 40 runs in their last 4 regional games.