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Forecasting The Big 12 South - Sep. 13, 2010

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I posted this a few times last year. Here's how it works. I use Sagarin's "Predictor" rating for the different teams on Big 12 South schedules, to estimate point spreads (I'm giving 3 points for home field). Using his ratings also removes my personal bias (Note- in week 2, his relative ratings are not as good as they will be in a few more weeks). These predicted point spreads can then be used to estimate straight up win probabilities. Add the win probabilities of all games together, and you have an estimate for season wins. I also estimate the chances of different records, based on some gross assumptions and binomial statistics.

A few notes- he has Texas at about #8 in the country, which seems fair based on results so far. His ratings are not that impressed with Nebraska. Texas is favored in all of its remaining games, but three (TT, OU, and NU) are basically tossups. UCLA looks weaker than we expected. Cincy doesn't appear to be any tougher than USAFA for OU. The Ags and Razorbacks look evenly matched.

Parity is the byword in the Big 12 this year, with most of the teams not too strong and not too weak. There is a lot to be gained for any team that can improve this year, or make the big plays in close games. Even though Texas is favored or even in all of the remaining games, the tool predicts a 9 - 3 season for the Horns. Thoughts?

Team Sagarin Opponent Spread Odds
Texas 86.05
61.86 @Rice W 1 expected 8.84
61.99 Wyo W 1 Conf. expect. 5.34
80.99 @TT -2.06 0.52 root 0.667
61.49 UCLA -27.56 0.87
85.81 OU -0.24 0.5
79.98 @NU -3.07 0.53 12 - 0 1.75%
66.78 ISU -22.27 0.85 11 - 1 8.71%
74.21 BU -14.84 0.7 10 - 2 19.57%
71.56 @KSU -11.49 0.65
79.74 OSU -9.31 0.62
62.1 FAU -26.95 0.98
78.77 TAMU -10.28 0.62
OU 85.81
66.76 Utah St W 1 expected 8.3
79.16 FSU W 1 Conf. expect. 5
79.1 USAFA -9.71 0.62 root 0.619
69.82 @Cincy -12.99 0.68
86.05 UT 0.24 0.5
66.78 ISU -22.03 0.87 12 - 0 0.82%
81.18 @MU -1.63 0.52 11 - 1 5.06%
67.74 CU -21.07 0.85 10 - 2 14.04%
78.77 @TAMU -4.04 0.54
80.99 TT -7.82 0.59
74.21 @BU -8.6 0.6
79.74 @OSU -3.07 0.53
TAMU 78.77
56.07 SFASU W 1 expected 7.24
60.56 LT W 1 Conf. expect. 3.91
61.22 FIU -20.55 0.83 root 0.514
79.74 @OSU 3.97 0.46
78.26 Ark -0.51 0.5
81.18 Mizzou -0.59 0.5 12 - 0 0.13%
69.55 @KU -6.22 0.57 11 - 1 1.22%
80.99 TT -0.78 0.5 10 - 2 5.18%
85.81 OU 4.04 0.46 9 - 3 13.05%
74.21 @BU -1.56 0.52 8 - 4 21.60%
79.98 NU -1.79 0.52
86.05 @UT 10.28 0.38
TT 80.99
72.15 SMU W 1 expected 7.58
55.92 @UNM W 1 Conf. expect. 3.97
86.05 UT 2.06 0.13 root 0.567
66.78 @ISU -11.21 0.65
74.21 BU -6.78 0.58
79.74 OSU -4.25 0.54 12 - 0 0.11%
67.74 @CU -10.25 0.63 11 - 1 1.64%
78.77 @TAMU 0.78 0.5 10 - 2 6.27%
81.18 Mizzou -2.81 0.53 9 - 3 18.39%
85.81 @OU 7.82 0.41 8 - 4 24.54%
55.76 Weber -28.23 0.99
74.28 UH -9.71 0.62
BU 74.21
46.04 SHSU W 1 expected 6.54
60.79 Buff W 1 Conf. expect. 3.67
84.55 @TCU 13.34 0.32 root 0.443
65.91 @Rice -5.3 0.55
69.55 KU -7.66 0.58
80.99 TT 6.78 0.42 12 - 0 0.03%
67.74 @CU -3.47 0.53 11 - 1 0.37%
71.56 KSU -5.65 0.56 10 - 2 2.08%
86.05 @UT 14.84 0.3 9 - 3 6.97%
79.74 @OSU 8.53 0.4 8 - 4 15.31%
78.77 TAMU 1.56 0.48
85.81 OU 8.6 0.4
OSU 79.74
55.27 WSU W 1 expected 7.57
71.29 Troy W 1 Conf. expect. 4.11
72.07 Tulsa -10.67 0.63 root 0.604
78.77 TAMU -3.97 0.54
55.89 @ULL -20.85 0.83
80.99 @TT 4.25 0.46 12 - 0 0.24%
79.98 NU -2.76 0.53 11 - 1 2.81%
71.56 @KSU -5.18 0.55 10 - 2 9.22%
74.21 BU -8.53 0.6 9 - 3 21.85%
86.05 @UT 9.31 0.38 8 - 4 25.07%
69.55 @KU -7.19 0.58
85.81 OU 3.07 0.47

And for fun- Nebraska

Team Sagarin Opponent Spread Odds
NU 79.98
53.36 WKU W 1 expected 7.67
72.26 Idaho W 1 Conf. expect. 4.54
75.24 @UW -1.74 0.52 root 0.560
69.03 SDSU -13.95 0.61
71.56 @KSU -5.42 0.55
86.05 UT 3.07 0.47 12 - 0 0.31%
79.74 @OSU 2.76 0.47 11 - 1 2.39%
81.18 Mizzou -1.8 0.52 10 - 2 8.46%
66.78 @ISU -10.2 0.63
69.55 KU -13.43 0.69
78.77 @TAMU 1.79 0.48
67.74 CU -15.24 0.73