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Forecasting the Big 12 South - Sept. 20, 2010

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The Sagarins are starting to make a little more sense, and some of the key games have been played. I have made a key change to the spreadsheet. I have used actual W/L data from all prior Big 12 South games from the last few years to generate odds of straight up wins for different point spreads (data has been smoothed a little). This shows dramatically higher odds of winning for small spreads. I put those odds in an Excel Lookup table.

After last week's results, Texas appears in a stronger position, although the OU and NU games look very close. The losses we have after leaving Lincoln will probably be our total regular season losses for the year.

The Aggie fortunes look worse now. If they can steal a win in Stillwater (I'm surprised OSU looks this good), they can right their ship.

Team Sagarin Opponent Spread Odds
Texas 88.12
61.86 @Rice W 1 expected 10.24
61.99 Wyo W 1 Conf. expect. 6.26
80.65 @TT W 1.00 root 0.790
67.92 UCLA -23.2 0.92
84.83 OU -3.29 0.61
83.92 @NU -1.2 0.52 12 - 0 11.93%
67.01 ISU -24.11 0.93 11 - 1 28.61%
70.97 BU -20.15 0.89 10 - 2 32.21%
72.28 @KSU -12.84 0.79
81.87 OSU -9.25 0.76
62.52 FAU -28.6 0.98
75.27 TAMU -15.85 0.83
OU 84.83
66.76 Utah St W 1 expected 9.25
79.16 FSU W 1 Conf. expect. 5.45
79.1 USAFA W 1.00 root 0.673
69.82 @Cincy -12.01 0.79
88.12 UT 3.29 0.39
67.01 ISU -20.82 0.89 12 - 0 2.83%
77.98 @MU -3.85 0.61 11 - 1 12.38%
70.41 CU -17.42 0.85 10 - 2 24.07%
75.27 @TAMU -6.56 0.72
80.65 TT -7.18 0.74
70.97 @BU -10.86 0.77
81.87 @OSU 0.04 0.48
TAMU 75.27
56.07 SFASU W 1 expected 6.26
60.56 LT W 1 Conf. expect. 3.00
61.22 FIU W 1.00 root 0.330
81.87 @OSU 9.6 0.23
81.38 Ark 6.11 0.26
77.98 Mizzou -0.29 0.50 12 - 0 0.02%
67.97 @KU -4.3 0.66 11 - 1 0.09%
80.65 TT 2.38 0.39 10 - 2 0.69%
84.83 OU 6.56 0.26 9 - 3 3.27%
70.97 @BU -1.3 0.52 8 - 4 9.95%
83.92 NU 5.65 0.28
88.12 @UT 15.85 0.16
TT 80.65
72.15 SMU W 1 expected 8.07
55.92 @UNM W 1 Conf. expect. 4.31
88.12 UT L 0.00 root 0.636
67.01 @ISU -10.64 0.77
70.97 BU -9.68 0.76
81.87 OSU -1.78 0.52 11 - 1 1.71%
70.41 @CU -7.24 0.74 10 - 2 8.81%
75.27 @TAMU -2.38 0.56 9 - 3 20.13%
77.98 Mizzou -5.67 0.71 8 - 4 26.83%
84.83 @OU 7.18 0.25
55.76 Weber -27.89 0.97
71.62 UH -12.03 0.79
BU 70.97
46.04 SHSU W 1 expected 5.55
60.79 Buff W 1 Conf. expect. 2.80
84.55 @TCU L 0.00 root 0.328
59.8 @Rice -8.17 0.75
67.97 KU -6 0.72
80.65 TT 9.68 0.23 11 - 1 0.00%
70.41 @CU 2.44 0.39 10 - 2 0.08%
72.28 KSU -1.69 0.52 9 - 3 0.67%
88.12 @UT 20.15 0.10 8 - 4 3.18%
81.87 @OSU 13.9 0.18
75.27 TAMU 1.3 0.44
84.83 OU 10.86 0.22
OSU 81.87
55.27 WSU W 1 expected 8.66
71.29 Troy W 1 Conf. expect. 4.75
69.01 Tulsa W 1.00 root 0.587
75.27 TAMU -9.6 0.76
56.17 @ULL -22.7 0.91
80.65 @TT 1.78 0.44 12 - 0 0.82%
83.92 NU -0.95 0.50 11 - 1 5.21%
72.28 @KSU -6.59 0.72 10 - 2 14.70%
70.97 BU -13.9 0.81 9 - 3 24.17%
88.12 @UT 9.25 0.23 8 - 4 25.56%
67.97 @KU -10.9 0.77
84.83 OU -0.04 0.52
53.36 WKU W 1 expected 9.20
72.26 Idaho W 1 Conf. expect. 5.64
75.24 @UW -5.68 0.71 root 0.703
70.25 SDSU -16.67 0.84
72.28 @KSU -8.64 0.75
88.12 UT 1.2 0.44 12 - 0 2.97%
81.87 @OSU 0.95 0.48 11 - 1 12.51%
77.98 Mizzou -8.94 0.75 10 - 2 23.73%
67.01 @ISU -13.91 0.81
67.97 KU -18.95 0.86
75.27 @TAMU -5.65 0.71
70.41 CU -16.51 0.84

NU 83.92
53.36 WKU W 1 expected 9.48
72.26 Idaho W 1 Conf. expect. 5.64
75.24 @UW W 1.00 root 0.702
70.25 SDSU -16.67 0.84
72.28 @KSU -8.64 0.75
88.12 UT 1.2 0.44 12 - 0 4.16%
81.87 @OSU 0.95 0.48 11 - 1 15.87%
77.98 Mizzou -8.94 0.75 10 - 2 26.89%
67.01 @ISU -13.91 0.81
67.97 KU -18.95 0.86
75.27 @TAMU -5.65 0.71
70.41 CU -16.51 0.84