Texas High School Football Update
The high school pages are now updated at AdjustedStats.com, including the EWP Ratings, Power Ratings, matchup analyzer, and team and district pages. As always, many thanks to Jerry at PigskinPrep.com for his fine work collecting scores data across the state.
Class 5A
Updated Probability Forecast Table
Division I
Southlake Carroll appears to be peaking at the right time and took home the Region I championship 31-14 over Arlington Martin. Carroll will now face Region II champ Dallas Skyline, who barely survived The Woodlands 35-31 with two fourth quarter touchdowns for that region's title. The probability forecast says that this semifinal winner will be the heavy favorite in the state title game a week later.
Fort Bend Hightower won the Region III title 35-14 over defending state champ Pearland in an impressive showing. The other half of their state semifinal will be against Region IV champ San Antonio Madison, who eliminated Harlingen by a 42-27 final score.
Division II
La Porte was unable to follow up on their huge upset from the week before and fell 34-6 to Port Arthur Memorial in the Region III title game. Memorial will now face Region IV champion Cibolo Steele in the state semifinal after Steele had a surprisingly easy 35-10 win over San Antonio Reagan.
The other semifinal matches Region I champ Mansfield Timberview, 29-25 winners over Abilene Cooper against Region II winner Spring DeKaney.
This Division II bracket is considerably more wide open than Division I with all four remaining teams having a decent chance at the title.
Class 4A
Updated Probability Forecast Table
Division I
Lake Travis won a close battle over Cedar Park for the second time this year to take the Region IV championship, this one by a final of 14-9. The Cavaliers now advance to take on Pearland Dawson in the state semifinal after Dawson edged Angleton 27-23 in the Region III final.
In the other half of the bracket, Tyler easily defeated Sherman 45-21 and will now face Waco Midway, 54-34 winners over Wichita Falls Rider, in the state semis.
Division II
Aledo crushed Stephenville 33-0 despite Johnathan Gray's ejection for two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties to take the Region I title easily. Gray's ejection was, eh, questionable. Oh well. They will now take on Corsicana in a potentially high-scoring semifinal matchup after Corsicana handled Kilgore 42-21 for the Region II title.
Manvel and Calallen will meet in the other semifinal after Manvel was able to defeat La Marque 38-35 for the Region III championship and Calallen had a surprisingly easy time in a 45-15 win over Kerrville Tivy for the Region IV title.
Class 3A
Updated Probability Forecast Table
Division I
Tyler Chapel Hill and Alvarado will meet in the highly anticipated championship game that was predicted from the outset after Chapel Hill survived West Columbia 21-16 Alvarado breezed past a tough Henderson squad 34-13 in the semfinals.
Division II
Heavy favorite Gilmer was upset this week by new favorite Argyle, who are heavy favorites over Monahans in one semifinal. In the other, Coldspring-Oakhurst will take on a Wimberley squad that vanquished the hated Devine Warhorses in the Region IV final. The championship game should be a good matchup here as Argyle's status as overall favorite is mainly due to their more winnable semifinal.
Class 2A
Updated Probability Forecast Table
Division I
Three weeks, three overall favorites down in 2A Division I. This time it was Crockett falling to an upstart Tatum group that advanced to meet Hempstead in one semifinal. Melissa and Muleshoe will face each other in the other semifinal and both games should be competitive.
Division II
Unlike Division I, the two main favorites here are still going strong as Refugio and Corsicana Mildred both won handily again this week. Refugio's opponent in their semifinal is a peaking Lexington squad while Mildred will battle Cisco for the other championship game berth.
Class A
Probability Forecast Table
Division I
Mason cruised past Shiner and now take on Garrison in one semifinal while Mart and Stamford meet in the other.
Division II
Tenaha is now a 1-to-2 favorite to win this bracket after Windthorst was upset by Munday. Tenaha is a huge favorite over Burton in one semifinal while Munday should defeat Wellington in the other.
TAPPS
Division I Champion: Fort Worth Nolan Catholic
Division II Champion: Midland Christian
Division III Champion: Bullard Brook Hill
Division IV Champion: Hallettsville Sacred Heart
Congratulations to the TAPPS champions as all the favorites took home the titles.
Six-Man
Updated Probability Forecast Table
Borden County had a close call but was able to defeat Turkey Valley 61-56 in one semifinal after surviving their brutal region. They now take on Throckmorton for the state title as considerable favorites.
In Division II, Richland Springs is favored over Motley County but not by as much as previously thought after Motley County scored a surprisingly easy blowout win 84-36 over Sterling City in their semifinal.
Congratulations to Abilene Christian on winning TAPPS 6-Man Division I and Fredericksburg Heritage Christian on winning TAPPS 6-Man Division II.
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What’s your opinion on Jonathan Gray and the personal fouls? I’ve heard some people brutally criticizing him, but I didn’t think he was that kind of player. I didn’t see the game, so I’m not sure of the context – was he really that out of line?
by txgeotech on Dec 5, 2025 4:36 PM CST reply actions
Well, here is a youtube clip of the second unsportsmanlike conduct that wiped a TD off the board and caused the ejection.
Straight thug, imo.
That’s sarcasm for those that are unfamiliar with the concept.
by Huckleberry on Dec 5, 2025 4:42 PM CST reply actions
And, for the record, I think that he broke the rule. So it should have been flagged and he shouldn’t have high-stepped. I have no idea what the first unsportsmanlike conduct was for.
I just think brutal criticism is pretty dumb for what he did in that clip.
by Huckleberry on Dec 5, 2025 4:51 PM CST reply actions
Both were for TD celebrations. Pretty lame considering Baylor players can, apparently, do the upside down Hook ‘Em whenever they want. Yes, I know I’m comparing high school to college rules. Apples and oranges. Except for that it’s supposed to be called in college as well.
by Ty on Dec 5, 2025 4:54 PM CST reply actions
Holy crap. I just watched the video. Doing that gets you kicked out of a game?
Jesus. What would have happened to late 80’s/early 90’s Carter? They wouldn’t have had enough players left to field a team.
by Ty on Dec 5, 2025 4:57 PM CST reply actions
I heard throat slash on the first one, which is pretty much a no-no anywhere.
by Lobo89 on Dec 5, 2025 4:57 PM CST reply actions
Yeah, that’s what I figured. The folks coming down on him seem to be of the DKR “act like you’ve been there” persuasion, to a fault. Lesson learned for Gray, I guess.
by txgeotech on Dec 5, 2025 4:58 PM CST reply actions
I hope he plays with the same passion against OU next yr, minus the premature celebrations when he scores his 2 TDs. Stephenville must have really charged him up.
by ultralight on Dec 5, 2025 5:00 PM CST reply actions
I saw Lexington play Franklin during the regular season. Lexington had 4 or 5 kids transfer in this year, and they have some of them are BIG. I commented to someone who was pretty familiar with the roster that one of the linemen looked about 6’4" 290, and it turned out that was really close. When he couldn’t block a kid, he just fell down. You could hear him hit the turf from the stands.
I hope Refugio beats them, but they will have to be very polished and very fast. Lexington didn’t seem very disciplined or polished, but they are maulers.
by java on Dec 5, 2025 5:45 PM CST reply actions
I’m also pulling for Calallen. I’m sure Danaher is relieved not to be playing La Marque.
by java on Dec 5, 2025 5:48 PM CST reply actions
“Steele had a surprisingly easy victory over San Antonio Reagan”
Not really suprising except to the Stone Oak crowd.
Someone tell me about Port Authur Memorial. Thanks !
by torre on Dec 5, 2025 6:01 PM CST reply actions
Being a Medina Valley Panther (and having your alma mater fall on hard times), there is nothing sweeter than a loss by the mill rats from Devine…
by anonymous on Dec 5, 2025 6:10 PM CST reply actions
Port Arthur Memorial is dynamic..seen em play twice this year. Solid offense with playmakers in QB Singleton (Baylor commit) RB Holmes (Ark.) and solid WRs. Their defense has really come on strong in the playoffs, allowed 0 points and very few first downs in the second half against Laporte.
by cjjl on Dec 5, 2025 7:18 PM CST reply actions
This will be Calallen’s ninth trip to the semis with only one trip to the finals. In 05 when just graduated OU reliever Ryan Duke was their OB. They lost.
They are an amazingly consistent program.
I have heard that Danaher is the all time winningest coach in Texas HSFB history.
I don’t know if it’s true or not.
I think the CalCats were probably wanting LaMarque for a chance to heal past wounds.
I have a friend who played on those teams in the ninties when LM took them out a few times in a row.
I wish them well against Manvel.
by coyote on Dec 6, 2025 9:46 AM CST reply actions
Thats QB Ryan Duke.
btw – His brother played BB for Texas.
by coyote on Dec 6, 2025 9:47 AM CST reply actions
Huck, is adjusted stats updated for college games as well? In other words, can we start making our bowl game spreadsheets?
The website is amazing, btw. I’ve created an algorithm that I’ve been testing since late October, based on your expected value of returns, and so far my picks (if I had been betting) would have seen returns of
36%
18%
18%
18%
91%
and
56%
I generally start with the four games you mention in your weekly update, and then check some other games that look like they might work, then I pair four games with a solid E[v] of ROI (generally I like things in the .18 range, but will sometimes use games down to .126 if my knowledge of the roster confirms the direction recommended by the matchup analyzer) with a blockbuster Over/Under, and I typically go 3-2 on a 110.
Looking back on the season, I really wish I had been betting real money, instead of just testing out my strategy.
by redfoot on Dec 6, 2025 11:56 AM CST reply actions
Yes, it’s all updated.
You would have really been upset about not betting real money in 2008. I’m hoping to update the pick tracker with historical spreads and totals and then optimize the model from there this offseason. That year the spread and totals picks went 82-43-2 for the season on a unit basis. But it came back down to earth in 2009 at 65-51-2. Still profitable.
by Huckleberry on Dec 6, 2025 12:40 PM CST reply actions
Huck, just out of curiosity (and also because my first week’s “push” was an 8 point win by Stanford over USC in overtime, a week I happened to be in Vegas for so I put down real money) does the system have anyway of accounting for these types of overtime situations?
Also, do you know about the legality of online sports betting? I’ve heard mixed things about it from friends, and haven’t really looked into it myself. My understanding is that some laws on the books prevent it, but some Circuit Courts have not ruled in favor of the regulatory agencies. Any insights into this?
I’m no goody two-shoes, but I also just got a law license, and would like to keep it for awhile at least.
by redfoot on Dec 6, 2025 4:57 PM CST reply actions
I don’t take overtime into account in the models (at least not yet).
Online sports betting is illegal in most U.S. jurisdictions I’m aware of.
by Huckleberry on Dec 6, 2025 9:29 PM CST reply actions

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