It's back and better than FEMA. I'd post my record but it's floating somewhere in the bayou behind my back fence. And thank goodness for it because it was so bad I had to pay my bookie with a Federal Hurricane debit card. Have fun asshole, buy your old lady some teeth.
Classy as Caesar's sportsbook.
Anyway, in honor of Yom Kippur, the Jewish cleansing holiday we'll wipe the slate clean. Hell, my wife used to be Catholic so we have our shot at weekly cleansing, but I'll take all the help I can get. I'm not too proud to cross dogmatic lines. Or dog to favorite lines for that matter. So on to the bets.
LSU +6 @ Florida 2 units. Yeah, I know that it's a night game at the Swamp and I know LSU is still trying to find its way with freshman quarterback Jarrett Lee. But even given that, I think LSU is a known quantity at this point. You're going to get athleticism and speed all over the field, suffocating defense, and an efficient offense. But considering the Gators are trying to cover a huge number against a top 5 team that grinds games out on both sides of the ball this is a tall order. Throw in the fact that the total in the game is a smallish 47 and the 6 points become even more valuable. So, with that said, by capping the Gator's season so far, I'll show you why LSU is a solid play.
First who have they beaten? Their best wins are at home vs. Miami 26-3 and Tennessee on the road in less than dominant 30-6 fashion. Miami went toe to toe defensively with the Gators for 3 quarters. Tennessee out yardaged and first downed Florida, but lost going away due to 3 big turnovers and a Gator's special team's touchdown.
Secondly, against the 3 best defenses it has faced, the Gator's were held to less than 4 yards per carry vs. Ole Miss, Tenny, and Miami. LSU's D is a cut above those 3 and the Tiger's should almost certainly be able to smother the Florida rushing attack, which leads me to reason 3.
Third, if the Gator's are to win, much less cover the 6, Tebow will need to move the ball through the air vs. LSU's athletic secondary. Against the only team with comparable secondary play to that of LSU, Tennessee, Tebow was 8-15 for 96 yards. Ouch. LSU will be rolling out 4 Eric Berry's in their back 4. LSU gets the straight up win 24 to 21.
Louisville -6.5 @ Memphis. 1 unit. If you've watched the fighting Caliparis, you know where I'm coming from with this bet. Simply put, they can't tackle. They couldn't tackle Scipio with a lead block from Bragg, a trap from HJ, and a chop block from Chris Applewhite. Although, Dedfischer is optimistic about Memphis' front seven.
But take a look at the numbers. UAB, Marshal, Arkansas State, Rice and Ole Miss averaged 6.1, 5.8, 5.1, 5.8, and 6.8 yards per play respectively. Louisville averages 5.8 per play against a schedule that includes Kansas State, Kentucky, and UCONN, all defenses that are substantially more effective than what the Tigers will roll out. I like the 'Ville to march up and down the field. It will take Memphis getting into the 30's to cover this bet, and even then it's no guarantee. I like my chances. Louisville 38 to 24.
Memphis arm tackling.
Notre Dame +7.5 @UNC.1 unit. Don't believe the blow out hype with North Carolina. Sure they won 38-12 vs. UCONN and 44-12 vs. Rutgers, but the games were much closer than the score indicated. Both Rutgers and UCONN imploded for 4 and 3 turnovers respectively which led to blowout results but the boxscores and actually viewing these games tell a different story. Both UCONN and Rutgers out yardaged the Heels, and held up well physically. If UNC wants to cover this number, they'll have to physicall dominate the Irish offense. If the Irish get to 24, they'll cover, because it'll be very hard for a pedstrian Tar Hell offense to get into the 30's. Gimme the points. 24 to 21 UNC.
Arizona -6 @ Stanford. 1 unit. Karma's a bitch Jim Harbaugh. Running the ball from the 3 as time expired to get your team the 13 point cover against San Jose State. Really? Tomey should have punched you the neck. Well you'll get your comeuppance against an improving Wildcat team led by Willie Tuitama. If it wasn't for a hiccup in Albuquerque where the Wildcats crapped the bed with a 5 turnover performance, Arizona would be sitting at 5-0 with blowout conference wins at UCLA and Washington. They'd also be top 20 and laying a much larger number than 6 this weekend. If not for two late Stanford scores on the road in South Bend, the line might be larger still. I'll take Arizona in a blowout. 35 to 14.
TAMU vs. Kansas State Under 64. 1 unit. I figure my cover here has a two way go. If the Aggies come out and play inspired football to pull off the mild upset, it'll be done in a close game with each team going to ball control which should shorten the which favors an under with this gigantic total. If the aggies or cats are on the wrong side of a blowout, I see each respective offense opening up big cans of quit. If you're betting this over, you're counting on two bad football teams putting up 9 touchdowns. That's a tough chore for these two squads in 7 on 7. Look for both defenses to try to limit big plays after being torched by OSU and Tech. A lot of bend but don't break and/or a close game has this game going way under. 28 to 24 KSU.
Good luck with the bets this week. For more bets from a cat that's on a hell of a run check out Scipio's Big 12 capping.