Well went a stellar 4-0 hitting both my 2 unit plays which runs my post Hurricane Ike record to 6-3 up 3.6 units. Let's keep this thing rolling into week 9. On to the bets.
Oregon -3 at Arizona State. 1 unit. This game is all about the matchups and when you take one of the top 10 defensive lines in the country and pit them against the revolving door that comprises the Sun Devil offensive line, a crew that's not all that fond of who they're protecting, then you have a recipe for domination. Throw in the fact that the Sun Devil running game ranks ahead of only SMU and SDSU, and you have to begin to wonder how ASU is going to move the football. It's certainly a bad set of circumstances for a loud mouth QB who will be coming into the game hobbled. Oregon averaged 3.25 sacks per game while ASU is giving up 2.5 sacks per. Reminds me of the baby wildebeest being pulled by a crocodile and a pride of lions. Except the wildebeest will have faired better.
Offensively, Bellotti's squad will find ways to move the ball on an undisciplined ASU defense. Any kind of TD or better lead in this game for the Ducks spells doom for the one dimensional Sun Devils. It wouldn't shock me to see Carpenter gone by halftime. Oregon rolls 31 to 17.
Betting against you, JPW.
Tennessee +6 vs. Alabama. 2 units. The bet boils down to a bet against John Parker Wilson moving the ball through the air in Knoxville. Tennessee has one of the most underrated defenses in the nation, and excels in stopping good running attacks. The Vols allow just 3.4 yards per rush against teams that average 5.5 yards per rush. That's two full yards per rush below average, Huck. That's clutch. And Alabama's rushing attack has been stymied by good rush defenses in Clemson, Georgia, and Ole Miss this season. You should expect more of the same from a fired up Volunteer club playing at home.
Offensively, inserting Nick Stephens at QB has jumpstarted what was a putrid Volunteer passing game. In his three starts, Stephens is averaging 6.2 yards per pass vs. teams that allow just 5.8. Alabama's defense won't be at full strength, losing star DT Terrence Cody to injury, but the Tide will still give the Vols a lot of trouble. The bet on this side requires the Vols to get to 17 or more to cover this bet. And I think they will. 21 to 20 Alabama.
T, I need 150 yards passing, 75 rushing, and no picks.
Ohio State +3 vs. Penn State. 1 unit. This is more of angle play than it is a straight numbers wager. Penn State has gotten it done offensively this year, especially when you compare them to an often stagnant Buckeye offense. But a night game in Columbus should have the OSU defense sky high and ready to handle the potent Nittany Lion attack.
Offensively, the Buckeyes are about .75 yards per play better with Beanie Wells and Terrell Pryor in the backfield together. That trend should only improve as the freshman phenom gets more acclimated to big time college football. And in Penn State's only contest against a dual threat QB, Juice Williams of Illinois moved the Illini offense to the tune of nearly 400 yards of total offense in a relatively close game. In Happy Valley.
Look for Penn State to struggle offensively with its first test against a top 25 defense. In the shoe. At night. The stench of freshly gasoline doused couches in the air. Watch Tressel protect his young QB by moving the ball on the ground, biding his time for the big play over the top. tOSU 24 Penn State 20.
Mizzou -24 vs. Colorado. 1 unit. This is the game where Mizzou gets to take the donut off of their Louisville Slugger. Or New York Yankee mini-bat if your Chase Daniel. After facing two top 10 teams in back to back weeks, the Tigers have a chance to get well against a trouble stricken CU team. The Buffs have injuries up and down their Oline, dissention in the ranks from a brewing QB controversy, and lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball. And now they get Missouri, a team that scored a TD on every opening possession prior to the OSU game.
Offensively, Mizzou averages 54 points against defenses not named Texas or Oke State. Defensively, Mizzou gets to face an inept Buff offense that averages just 4.5 yards per play against a schedule that gives up a full yard more on average. Anecdotal evidence of Colorado's offense sucking is found in last week's 14 point explosion against a bad KSU defense.
Pinkel is 18-3-1 ATS as a favorite of 14.5 points or more. The Tigers bounce back in a big way and don't take their foot off the gas 48 to 10.
Good luck with the bets, and be sure to check out Huck's computer picks, and Scipio's Big 12 predictions.
Hook 'EM.