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Big 12 Betting: Week 4

As always, check out Trips Right's picks if you'd like to figure out where the El Paso smart money (all three of them) puts their pesos. I've learned that when dude gets on a roll, just give him your money and step aside. That was also a good strategy when he used to shake down grade schoolers while in high school.

I am currently 10-8 ATS, which defines my forced Big 12 handicapping mediocrity nicely. That written, I'm going to wreck shit this week so pay attention. Or not. Either way.

Texas A&M +3 @ Iowa State

The Futility Bowl is an important game for the Sherman regime. A loss here and A&M can no longer credibly tell the story of a program gutted by Fran improving each week under new management. There is no Bright Aggie Future to be sold. Recruiting will be limited to Aggie legacies and the untapped potential of Nederland. JJ is a talented turnover machine with promising young WRs and though the Aggie defense doesn't have a playmaker to be found they've at least demonstrated some effort in six of their last eight quarters. That should be enough against an Iowa State program going nowhere fast. A Aggie loss here would be devastating. And very funny.

A&M - 34 Iowa State - 27

OSU @ Texas -12

After we spot them a 21 point lead on three consecutive Dez Bryant jump balls, I anticipate winning the rest of the game 38-3. Honestly, I find giving a damn fine Oklahoma State team with an improved defense and a great stable of skill players 12 points insane but betting against Texas at home with Colt McCoy playing at the quality level of Raquel Welch's tits seems equally risky. We have a DL and two LBs that should make OSU's running game manageable with an honest front. Roy Miller and Muck are key. The former needs 2-3 TFL and the latter should have 12-15 tackles. Dez Bryant should get enough defensive attention to shut down the OSU offense when it matters most. I think Muschamp is smart enough to know that doubling Bryant isn't "a look" to throw at OSU, but an imperative.

Texas - 38 OSU - 24

Oklahoma - 18 @ Kansas State

KSU can score on a Sooner defense with problems much deeper than anything to do with the loss of Ryan Reynolds, but Oklahoma's offense should realistically put up a double nickel. If you know the other team is going to score at least 50 on you, is a line under 22 even relevant? Freeman can put points on the Sooners, but he can't play LB/DT/CB. Besides, Ron Prince game planned Texas in 2010 all this week.

OU - 55 KSU - 30

Nebraska -12 over Baylor

Robert Griffin is a phenom, but defensive coaches are learning that Briles doesn't trust him making too many decisions in the passing game. His passing tree looks more like a bo staff. Pelini should be able to diagnose that and though his defenders aren't athletic enough to execute that gameplan fully, they'll do it enough to get the win and pull away late. Similarly, Nebraska has given up any pretense of two TE sets and has committed themselves to the spread and QB Joe Ganz, no matter how crappy their WR personnel. This is a good thing for the Huskers. It enables an underrated passer the discretion to make some plays.

Nebraska - 34 Baylor - 20

Texas Tech +1 @ Kansas

I think Tech wins this game by 14 if Ruffin McNeil can find his balls. When Tech pressures on defense, they look like the second or third best defense in the league. When they don't, they're a unit comprised of West Texas hairdressers. They have sufficient speed on the edge to harass Reesing and the depth to do it for four quarters. On defense, I don't think Kansas will exhibit any ability to pressure Graham Harrell at all. If they'll patiently feed Baron Batch and Crabtree, Tech should win in a shootout.

Tech - 37 KU - 34

CU @ Missouri -24

Missouri's defense has been vastly overrated, but it's almost impossible to underrate Colorado's offense. When a coach benches his own son, you know that things are messed up. You also know that The Hawk has been sleeping on the couch at the insistence of Mrs. Hawk for the last few nights. If Mizzou can't take out their frustrations on the Buffaloes with a good old fashioned hide skinning on their home field, Pinkel should start interviewing with Washington on Sunday. There's nothing more dangerous than disappointing the newly hatched expectations of a group unaccustomed to success. Ask any repo man. Two words, Pinkel: win big.

Mizzou - 45 CU - 14