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Big 12 Betting: Week 5

Last week, I went 4-1-1 ATS. For the year, I'm currently 14-9-1 ATS. A record of consequence that demands your attention and respect. This week I will take that attention, respect, and your wagered money and treat it like Charmin Double Soft after a chili cookout.


As always, I must pick the lines only and I must pick all of the games. If you want picks made from a national perspective by someone with actual talent, please read Trips Right.

Iowa State @ Oklahoma State -30

It's a partisan's folly to overrate a team because they played yours well. We're offering up 30 points to the juggernaut from Ames and that isn't anything to sneeze at. Or is it? Consider OSU's improved defense and skill athlete supremacy to be pollen, cat dander, and mildew. Achoo. Iowa State is moribund on the road and if A&M can take them down in their place, I don't like their chances playing a talented opponent from the Dirty South. Your only concern should be that OSU jumps out to a big lead, puts in scrubs, and ISU scores sympathy points down the stretch.

Oklahoma State - 49
Iowa State - 16

Missouri - 21 @ Baylor

The Mizzou Corollary is simple. Assign a mean 50 point loss to the bottom decile of college football and subtract five points from Mizzou's margin of victory with each decile they rise in competition until....they hit the Top 10. Flatline! It's like a gridiron Laffer curve. Baylor is just barely south of the 50th percentile in college football and after factoring in home field advantage, the Mizzou Corollary tells us that Missouri wins by 22.696969 - just edging the line.

It's science.

Mizzou - 45
Baylor - 22

CU @ A&M -3.5

Colorado is tuhhrible and A&M is harrr-ible. A&M is an amazing 1-4 at home. Something has to give. I like Jarrod Johnson and it's no insult to say that's he's the 10th best QB in the league. That would make him the 3rd best QB in the SEC. Colorado is a mess at QB and though they will have some success running the ball against A&M's indescribably putrid defense, I doubt their ability to score the points they need. Colorado's defense does have some dangerous players and if JJ is careless with the ball, CU could steal the win with a defensive touchdown. I like the Aggies to score their last win of the 2008 season.

A&M - 34
CU - 28

Nebraska +22 @ Oklahoma

The most irritating idea, perspective, point-of-view, theory, premise (nyet to neologism: not going to say meme!) currently being perpetuated on the college football public is that OU's defense collapsed with the loss of Ryan Reynolds. As if it were 1976 and OU is sweating the veer every week. OU couldn't cover Tara's Reid's tits with a kimono so I'm not sure why the loss of a run-first plodding MLB with the lateral movement of William H Taft is responsible for Brett Vulnerable's pooooosy performance. Methinks the Ryan Reynolds story keeps OU Fan from asking the tougher questions. Nebraska is roughly comparable in quality to Kansas and though OU will score at will on them, Nebraska will get theirs on O. Joe Ganz would do better with a receiving corps of Border Collies, but Nate Swift will catch enough frisbies to make it semi-respectable.

OU - 49
NU - 30

Kansas St + 9 @ Kansas

Every week Kansas State's defense is a capuchin monkey playing Admiral Nimitz in Electronic Battleship, I'm not betting against KSU's special teams and QB play in a game that should be closer than the line suggests. As much grief as I heap on Prince and his now svelte QB, KSU's passing game is legitimate. Todd Reesing pressed against Tech in a "ahh, screw it" sort of way that perplexed me. That all adds up to an upset. Or at least a cover.

Kansas State - 42
Kansas - 41

Texas -3 @ Tech

Well, well, well. Only in Lubbock does the winner of a halftime kicking contest win free rent. And a spot on the football team. I saw a guy win a month of amnesty from child support payments at an OU basketball game, but they wouldn't 'ship him when he wouldn't guard Stacy King in the post. Billy Tubbs gave him a carton of marbs and sent him on his way. Like the Missouri game, the line has moved towards Tech dramatically. Had it stayed at 7, I would have taken Tech as I'm convinced that neither team will be able to separate effectively. CloseToJumping just read that line and sent me a text of pure rage. However, trimming the margin to a field goal gives me pause, particularly when Tech won't be kicking any field goals. Anything on our side of the 50 will be four down territory, placing immense pressure on our defense. We'll cope just enough to win it. And a missed extra point from Tech will get the cover.

Texas - 38
Tech - 34

Attack these unassailable picks only if you wish me to embarrass you in a public forum. Or if you are better at this than me, in which case I'm all ears.