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BCS Standings 10.18.09

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The picture is pretty clear. Note the numeric clumpings:

Florida .9886
Alabama .9526

Texas .8911

Boise St .8083
Cincinnati .7870
Iowa .7869
USC .7695

TCU .7139
LSU .7083

Texas has substantial space between it and the next four teams. If we win out, there's a 97% chance we play for the MNC. Then, most likely, Alabama (or LSU possibly) and Florida play a one game elimination in the SEC title game for the right to go to Pasadena. Even a one loss SEC champion likely gets the nod over an undefeated Boise, Iowa, Cincy. A two loss SEC champ does not, of course. But that's unlikely.

If Texas loses a game, we're sunk. And we're absolutely sunk if that loss is the Big 12 title game. Recency bias. If we drop Mizzou and win out, we'd have a 5% chance of earning a national title berth and we'd need widespread mayhem to get there.

Iowa, Cincy, Boise, TCU all need major help. Boise is praying that Oregon wins the Pac 10 at 11-1. Then they can attempt a media campaign. Won't work though.

USC has caused much hand and panty wringing given the media's perpetual crush on them and I'm watching Kirk Herbstreit try to advance their cause right now, but they're just not a threat if we're undefeated. A huge threat if we gain a loss though, obviously. Washington is a bad loss and Ohio State is now a tarnished victory.

Big 12

From a non-BCS perspective (hey, I'd like to win the Big 12 even if we suffer a loss - call me crazy) Texas Tech and OU are great tools for our success. We've put losses on them and they are now unleashed on the Big 12 South to harass Oklahoma State and beat up on the North (perhaps allowing a weaker title game representative to advance).

Obviously, if we lose a game, losing to Mizzou is preferable to OSU from a title game representation perspective.

Bottom line: win out and we're playing for the marbles.