All you need to know about the kind of month it has been in Big 12 basketball is to understand that Oklahoma, which lost its first three league games, now is tied for third place a little more than two weeks later.
What’s great about that is that while it tends to explain everything, it tells us nothing. On the one hand, the league might not be nearly as good as its non-conference winning percentage would suggest. It also might be a road full of ruts – for everyone except Texas and Kansas. The truth, of course, most likely lies in between.
There are a couple of ways to deal with this. For those who want to cheat, there’s a link at the bottom that will help you settle this in the way you find most fit. For the rest of us, there’s a near-nine-way tie to be unraveled in the next four weeks. What fun!
Here is a midseason breakdown of this jumbled mess:
Texas (7-0)
Best win – At Kansas
Worst loss – At USC.
Remaining schedule – Favorable. They’re done with KU, A&M and Missouri, and the teams that were thought to be big hurdles in the back half, Baylor and Kansas State, aren’t getting it done.
Pomeroy says – 38 percent chance of winning out. Only Utah State in WAC (44 percent) has a better chance of going undefeated in its league.
Outlook – About as rosy as it gets.
Kansas (6-1)
Best win – Arizona (Las Vegas)
Best league win – Kansas State
Worst loss – Well... Texas
Remaining schedule – Just a bit more meaty than Texas; where the Horns are done with A&M and Missouri, KU has MU twice and A&M at Allen Field House.
Pomeroy says – 25 percent chance of winning out.
Outlook – Bright, unless they’ve counted on winning the Big 12 again.
Oklahoma (4-3)
Best win – Colorado
Worst loss – at Chaminade
Remaining schedule – Hard. Four of the next six on the road, including Missouri, Kansas State and A&M, and home games with Texas and Kansas.
Pomeroy says – About a 1 percent chance of getting to eight wins, less than 1 of getting to nine.
Outlook – Look out below.
Texas A&M (4-3)
Best win – Washington or Missouri
Worst loss – Despite being pounded twice by Texas, it’s Boston College.
Remaining schedule – Tomorrow against Baylor is the toughest home game; road includes Colorado and Kansas.
Pomeroy says – 38 percent chance of getting to nine wins, 21 percent to get to 10.
Outlook – Headed to a first-round bye.
Baylor (4-4)
Best win – Colorado
Worst loss – At Oklahoma, four days after the best win.
Remaining schedule – Texas twice, A&M twice, at Missouri… not built for a stretch run.
Pomeroy says – 13 percent chance of getting to eight wins, 3 percent chance to get to nine.
Outlook – Bears will be playing on Wednesday in Kansas City.
Colorado (4-4)
Best win – Missouri
Worst loss – At San Francisco
Remaining schedule – Hard to judge. Buffs usually are tougher at home but have A&M and Texas in Boulder; they’ve beaten K-State on the road, but then lost to OU – they have good shots at Tech and Iowa State.
Pomeroy says – 17 percent chance of getting to eight wins, 8 percent of getting to nine.
Outlook – Two and BBQ in KC.
Missouri (3-4)
Best win – Illinois (St. Louis)
Best league win – Kansas State
Worst loss – At Oklahoma State
Remaining schedule – Another team that plays well at home and poorly on the road. KU twice and at K-State and Nebraska are the toughest stops left.
Pomeroy says – 36 percent chance of getting to nine wins; 18 percent of getting to 10.
Outlook – Should get the other first-round bye.
Nebraska (3-4)
Best win – Texas A&M
Worst loss – At Texas Tech
Remaining schedule – Sets up nicely, if they can take advantage. Texas and Kansas at home, but the rest, including all the road games (Baylor, OU, Iowa State, Colorado) are winnable.
Pomeroy says – 10 percent chance of getting to nine wins, 4 percent of getting to 10.
Outlook – A reasonable shot at a first-round bye… or 6-10. They get to pick.
Kansas State (3-5)
Best win – At Washington State
Best league win – Nebraska
Worst loss – Colorado
Remaining schedule – Like Nebraska, also on the brink, but not in a good way. OU and Iowa State at home, opposed to Kansas at home and Texas on the road, and the rest are toss-ups.
Pomeroy says – 17 percent chance of getting to seven wins; 6 percent chance of getting to eight.
Outlook – Not so good, and that doesn’t begin to cover it.
Oklahoma State (3-5)
Best win – Missouri
Worst loss – At Texas Tech
Remaining schedule – Could be worse. Texas and Kansas on the road. Winnable home games with Tech, OU, Baylor and A&M.
Pomeroy says – 20 percent chance of getting to seven wins; 9 percent chance of getting to eight.
Outlook – Middle of the pack.
Texas Tech (3-5)
Best win – Nebraska
Worst loss – TCU
Remaining schedule – Not favorable. Only three home games left, and possibly only favored against OU.
Pomeroy says – 4 percent chance of getting to six wins; less than 1 percent of getting to seven.
Outlook – Thank God for Iowa State.
Iowa State (1-7)
Best win – Baylor
Worst loss – Texas Tech
Remaining schedule – A couple of winnable home games (K-State and Colorado). Not much else to look forward to.
Pomeroy says – 13 percent chance of getting to four wins; 5 percent of getting to five.
Outlook – Probably not moving out of the cellar.
Now, if you want to plot your own course to the Big 12 tournament, click here. The seeding generator will take your guesses and sort it all out.