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BCS Analysis – Undefeateds Update

Another week, another two undefeated teams bite the dust. Unlike last week, this week's victims Clemson and Kansas State got blown out, leaving little doubt that they are out of the national title picture with the loss. Just like last week, I'm going to stay brief and only update last week's analysis because there's not much point to going further than that until the result of the 11/5 championship semifinal between Alabama and LSU is known.

The BCS standings are posted here. The most important thing to note is that Stanford passed Boise State as we knew they would. It happened thanks to their first victory over a strong opponent in the triple overtime thriller over Southern Cal. As always, I will use the normal approach of the power rating and standard deviation of each team available on my EWP ratings page. Each team's remaining schedule, including assumed opponents in conference championship games where applicable, will be posted along with their probability of a victory in each game. Their current BCS information will also be posted, as well as their current schedule strength and forecast final schedule strength via Kenneth Massey's BCS rankings (the best non-MOV schedule source). Massey's final schedule calculation does not include a conference championship game forecast and is also based on last week's numbers as he hasn't released his updated rankings yet. I will revise the tables below once I see his new numbers.

LSU (BCS - #1 - 0.9734) - Current Schedule 13, Final Schedule 12

Site Opponent Win %
Road Alabama 39.5%
Home Western Kentucky 99.8%
Road Mississippi 99.6%
Home Arkansas 95.7%
Neutral South Carolina 88.8%
---- Undefeated Prob. 33.0%

Alabama (BCS - #2 - 0.9591) - Current Schedule 21, Final Schedule 13

Site Opponent Win %
Home LSU 60.5%
Road Mississippi St. 99.2%
Home Georgia Southern 100%
Road Auburn 97.9%
Neutral South Carolina 91.7%
---- Undefeated Prob. 53.9%

Probability of an Undefeated SEC Champion - 86.9%

Oklahoma St. (BCS - #3 - 0.9310) - Current Schedule 7, Final Schedule 5

Site Opponent Win %
Home Kansas St. 93.4%
Road Texas Tech 87.3%
Road Iowa St. 91.8%
Home Oklahoma 51.2%
---- Undefeated Prob. 38.3%

Stanford (BCS - #4 - 0.8615) - Current Schedule 67, Final Schedule 52

Site Opponent Win %
Road Oregon St. 96.4%
Home Oregon 67.0%
Home California 97.8%
Home Notre Dame 86.4%
Home Arizona St. 87.1%
---- Undefeated Prob. 47.5%

Boise St. (BCS - #5 - 0.8522) - Current Schedule 42, Final Schedule 72

Site Opponent Win %
Road UNLV 97.5%
Home TCU 91.6%
Road San Diego St. 93.7%
Home Wyoming 97.4%
Home New Mexico 100%
---- Undefeated Prob. 81.5%

Houston (BCS - #13 - 0.4698) - Current Schedule 95, Final Schedule 89

Site Opponent Win %
Road UAB 94.4%
Road Tulane 93.7%
Home SMU 83.4%
Road Tulsa 67.4%
Home Southern Miss 71.0%
---- Undefeated Prob. 35.3%


Undefeated SEC vs. Oklahoma St. - 33.3%
Undefeated All 5 - 4.6%
Undefeated All 3 AQ - 15.8%
Undefeated 2 AQ - 45.3%
Undefeated 1 AQ - 34.6%
Undefeated 0 AQ - 4.2%

After next week it will be time to really start analyzing whether or not Boise State would be able to pass a one-loss LSU or Alabama. I don't think the voters allow the loser of next week's game to go to the national title game ahead of an undefeated Stanford with Andrew Luck. And will the voter love for Bob Stoops combined with the computer love for the Big 12 actually drop the LSU/Bama loser behind the Sooners? It's quite possible. We'll see in a week.