Another week, another two undefeated teams bite the dust. Unlike last week, this week's victims Clemson and Kansas State got blown out, leaving little doubt that they are out of the national title picture with the loss. Just like last week, I'm going to stay brief and only update last week's analysis because there's not much point to going further than that until the result of the 11/5 championship semifinal between Alabama and LSU is known.
The BCS standings are posted here. The most important thing to note is that Stanford passed Boise State as we knew they would. It happened thanks to their first victory over a strong opponent in the triple overtime thriller over Southern Cal. As always, I will use the normal approach of the power rating and standard deviation of each team available on my EWP ratings page. Each team's remaining schedule, including assumed opponents in conference championship games where applicable, will be posted along with their probability of a victory in each game. Their current BCS information will also be posted, as well as their current schedule strength and forecast final schedule strength via Kenneth Massey's BCS rankings (the best non-MOV schedule source). Massey's final schedule calculation does not include a conference championship game forecast and is also based on last week's numbers as he hasn't released his updated rankings yet. I will revise the tables below once I see his new numbers.
LSU (BCS - #1 - 0.9734) - Current Schedule 13, Final Schedule 12
| Site | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Road | Alabama | 39.5% |
| Home | Western Kentucky | 99.8% |
| Road | Mississippi | 99.6% |
| Home | Arkansas | 95.7% |
| Neutral | South Carolina | 88.8% |
| ---- | Undefeated Prob. | 33.0% |
Alabama (BCS - #2 - 0.9591) - Current Schedule 21, Final Schedule 13
| Site | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Home | LSU | 60.5% |
| Road | Mississippi St. | 99.2% |
| Home | Georgia Southern | 100% |
| Road | Auburn | 97.9% |
| Neutral | South Carolina | 91.7% |
| ---- | Undefeated Prob. | 53.9% |
Probability of an Undefeated SEC Champion - 86.9%
Oklahoma St. (BCS - #3 - 0.9310) - Current Schedule 7, Final Schedule 5
| Site | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Home | Kansas St. | 93.4% |
| Road | Texas Tech | 87.3% |
| Road | Iowa St. | 91.8% |
| Home | Oklahoma | 51.2% |
| ---- | Undefeated Prob. | 38.3% |
Stanford (BCS - #4 - 0.8615) - Current Schedule 67, Final Schedule 52
| Site | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Road | Oregon St. | 96.4% |
| Home | Oregon | 67.0% |
| Home | California | 97.8% |
| Home | Notre Dame | 86.4% |
| Home | Arizona St. | 87.1% |
| ---- | Undefeated Prob. | 47.5% |
Boise St. (BCS - #5 - 0.8522) - Current Schedule 42, Final Schedule 72
| Site | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Road | UNLV | 97.5% |
| Home | TCU | 91.6% |
| Road | San Diego St. | 93.7% |
| Home | Wyoming | 97.4% |
| Home | New Mexico | 100% |
| ---- | Undefeated Prob. | 81.5% |
Houston (BCS - #13 - 0.4698) - Current Schedule 95, Final Schedule 89
| Site | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Road | UAB | 94.4% |
| Road | Tulane | 93.7% |
| Home | SMU | 83.4% |
| Road | Tulsa | 67.4% |
| Home | Southern Miss | 71.0% |
| ---- | Undefeated Prob. | 35.3% |
SUMMARILY SPEAKING
Undefeated SEC vs. Oklahoma St. - 33.3%
Undefeated All 5 - 4.6%
Undefeated All 3 AQ - 15.8%
Undefeated 2 AQ - 45.3%
Undefeated 1 AQ - 34.6%
Undefeated 0 AQ - 4.2%
After next week it will be time to really start analyzing whether or not Boise State would be able to pass a one-loss LSU or Alabama. I don't think the voters allow the loser of next week's game to go to the national title game ahead of an undefeated Stanford with Andrew Luck. And will the voter love for Bob Stoops combined with the computer love for the Big 12 actually drop the LSU/Bama loser behind the Sooners? It's quite possible. We'll see in a week.