Big 12 Games Preview – Bedlam and Baptists

BCS needs to avoid the rematch. Fuck BCS. I hope it gets the rematch, and that Bama wins 12-9.

The funny thing is that even a playoff would like yield a rematch. Alabama and LSU seem to me to be the two best teams in the country, by a pretty good distance. If the rematch came about as the result of a playoff then people would likely be more excited for it, but it would be the same game.

Okie State and TAMU are identical twins when it comes to playing their in state rivals. The only difference is that Aggie left the building and Okie State will continue to get abused by the Sooners after another hearbreaking loss in Stillwater.

A Texas letdown would speak very poorly of the coaches.

I sit. I wait..

The funny thing is that even a playoff would like yield a rematch.

Depends on the playoff system. Mine would not, not in the championship game, although almost certainly in the Regional Finals.

I guess if you did it regionally, yeah. I assumed that there would still be some sort of ceding based on rankings, which I think would make them #1 and #2, respectively.

That should be “seeding.” I am tired.

Shouldn’t stay up so late on Saturdays. Just a thought.

So I guess now that Texas isn’t in the exact same position as Alabama (actually Texas’ case in ‘08 was stronger) the media now thinks it is ok for a team that didn’t win it’s own conference to play in the MNC game? Bama and Oregon have had their chances and they lost …. in fact Bama was at home and Oregon was on a neutral field. Time to give another team a shot.

Huck…

Interested as to why you think we score 34 points in this one. Is Baylor’s run defense really THAT bad? Because I can’t see us throwing for much yardage at all, per every other game we’ve played this year.

Thanks!

Bob in Houston —

Yeah, these 7PM games kill me. I have to either stay up until 2 or wake up then. Too bad we don’t have any morning games. Mercifully, this week’s game begins at 9:30 for me.

OB79 – Yes. Baylor’s rush defense is 106th adjusted per play.

Texas scores 34 points? I assume you are counting on four special teams/defensive touchdowns.

Meant to add – giving up over 5 yards a pop.

A few reasons.

1.) Last week I predicted Texas 24-23. I said I wasn’t sure how, but Texas would win. I am psychic. Others mocked the idea that Texas would score 24 points. Who’s laughing now, suckers?

2.) Before the Texas Tech game I mentioned how many points they give up. Well, Baylor has given up 30+ points to every FBS team they’ve played except Iowa State (26).

3.) Baylor is 113th in total rushing allowed per carry. They allow over 5.8 yards per run play by the opponents (remember, sacks are taken out of total rushing). An average running team will gain nearly 12 yards on average against Baylor by running the ball twice. That is tremendously shitty. We have done well against poor run defenses.

4.) Baylor plays quickly. They are 15th in the country in adjusted plays per game.

Basically, Baylor has an average pass defense that would give us problems with our well below average passing offense. But that’s only if we have to throw. Do you remember the Tech game? The Red Raider run defense is better than Baylor’s in total rushing allowed per carry. If we’re healthy, we can score 34.

If we can run it like we did against KU and Tech we should win, even with only a decent defensive performance. If we only give RGIII three second half possessions he is going to be under a lot of pressure to consistently make plays.

Just give LSU the share of the title after the SEC Champoinship game. Give the winner of the BCS game the other half.

Against Missouri, our offense scored 3 points without Brown, Bergeron, Whittaker and Shipley.
Against KSU, lacking those same guys, our offense scored 10.
Against TAMU, without Bergeron and Whittaker, but with a gimpy Shipley and Brown, our offense score 20. Yes, short fields, but we had short fields against Mizzou and KSU and couldn’t convert.

We’ll have a good offense against Baylor.

I’m with Huckleberry. If B&B; are healthy and Ship is better we stand a good chance at limiting the Baylor possessions to less than 70. That is the magic number for me. Think about our D for a second. We are ranked 8th nationally in the country’s highest rated offensive conference. This is why it pains me to see a guy like RG3 on THEIR team. Oh well, we smash them for 4 quarters and win via pounding the rock.

Well, Case McCoy led his team via a beautiful TD pass in which he, as leader, delegated the throwing duties to Jaxon Shipley.

It’s too bad Shuttlesworth, LHS and Scipio missed the A&M; game. I was really looking forward to reading their thoughts on the contest.

We should be able to run the ball, but still not sure how effectively even against Baylor. One of the real keys against Tech and Kansas was the wild Fozzy. Neither team could stop it, whether it was Fozzy off tackle or Monroe/Goodwin around. We won’t have that capability against Baylor unless we have some really good practices/growth by the current RBs. Funny – before reading anything on the upcoming game, mentally I thought if we score more than 30 in regulation, we win. I do hope that holds.

If we’re healthy, we can score 34.

Therein lies the catch.

A few reasons that Texas will beat Baylor on Saturday. Doesn’t seem possible but Baylor and Texas have 9 common opponents. Baylor is 6-3 and Texas 5-4, but Texas has outscored these 9 opponents by 59 points while Baylor has outscored the same 9 by only 20 points. In total yardage, Baylor has outgained the 9 opponents by 732 yds, yet the pitiful Texas offense has outgained the same 9 teams by 717 yds.

If Texas protects the football they will beat Baylor by several touchdowns. Texas has defense and defense wins games. Baylor has been held under 500 yds total offense in 2 games this year and they lost both. Baylor has not played any opponent that is close to Texas in quality of defense, against both the run and pass. Baylor’s defense gives up a lot of points and yards, 39.55 points and 501 yds pg to the 9 common opponents while the Texas gives up 21 points per game and 312 yds pg to the same 9. The Texas offense has been the cause of approximately 6 points a game that the defense has given up with its turnovers. So if Texas can stay away from the turnovers and protect the football they will win on Saturday.

Texas has held every opponent except Oklahoma at least 2 scores under their season scoring average. An avg of 13.6 per game, while Baylor has allowed its opponents an avg of 6.1 points over their season per game average.

The Baylor/Texas game on the surface looks like Baylor should be a heavy favorite but when you crunch the numbers, Texas has outplayed Baylor against the 9 common opponents. The big abberation is the OU game for both. Texas turnovers led to 35 OU points, 21 by the OU defense I think Texas wins 34-28 just as some one else predicted.

Good stuff prehist51

Huckleberry – I love your optimism, but let me temper it with the following:

HORNS OFFENSE
1. QB’s – we will play one that is a bandy legged, noodle arm legacy or another that is a freshman with a fatal confidence problem that couldn’t hit the inside of the practice bubble.
2. Receivers – We have one legitimate starter with a possible stretched knee lig, Davis (who has gone into the tank) and a collection of wannabe’s who could not start for Colorado.
3. RB’s – Our premier RB’s have a turf toe and a hammy – both of which take months to heal – not weeks – they will not be at 100% this year.

DEFENSE
1. I submit that we have the best defense in the country – not just the conference.
2. OU had a pretty damned good D as well – gave up 45 points.
3. RGIII is Vince Young II except he is twice the passer that VY was. He is not from this planet!
4. BU has, arguably, the best receivers in the conference – they arrived on the same spaceship that RGIII did.
5. By the 3rd qtr., our DB’s will be panting like lizards from doing windsprints all day.

I think our offense (maybe defense) will score one TD and a multitude of field goals for a total of 19 points. Our defense will give up 27 points.

I am praying I am wrong.

We’re not going to roll you guys, but we will win.

Come talk about it over at ODB.

If every game counts and that’s one of the reasons against a playoff, then wouldn’t a game between LSU and Bama diminish the first one? What would it prove exactly? Bama had their shot, lost it and didn’t make their own championship. If this is pretty much a playoff scenario, then shouldn’t LSU or the SEC championship winner play another conference winner? Seems to me to make the most sense.

If every game counts…

That’s part of the problem – they don’t. It’s a Beauty Contest, silicone allowed encouraged. Problems before or after the fact do not impede the process.

As Robert Anton Wilson said, “If voting could change the System, it would be illegal.” He probably plagiarized that. He also said “If NOT voting could change the System, it would be illegal.” He probably plagiarized that, too.

Every game counts unless you are in the SEC. Then you get at least 1 mulligan.

Snide:

RGIII is Vince Young II except he is twice the passer that VY was. He is not from this planet!

I like RGIII, he’s a top 10 draft pick imo, but lets back away from the hyperbole a bit. VY was the best college football player of all time. (See what I did there).

As to Bama LSU. they might be the best two teams in the country, but I personally don’t care to watch another 9-6 festival of the field goal.

Every game counts unless you are in the SEC. Then you get at least 1 mulligan.

Bob Stoops seems to benefit from the mulligan frequently too. Regardless of his stated belief that you don’t get them.

Vince Young led the nation in passing efficiency in the 2005 regular season. He finished second after the bowls because Rudy Carpenter qualified with his attempts in the ASU bowl game.

I would tap the brakes on “twice the passer” talk.

How’s about “Vince had a whole lot better supporting cast, so he didn’t have to pass as much” – that works for me…

Huckleberry – I would challenge you on your assesment of VY’s and RGIII’s passing comparisons. If BON’s date is accurate:

 “Baylor Bears quarterback Robert Griffin III is the best player in college football and is having a season utterly VY-esque in its ridiculousness. The raw numbers are just obscene: 252 for 347 passing (73%) for 3,678 yards, with 34 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions — good for a cool 191.1 QB Rating, which for the record is a full 27 points higher than VY’s national-best 163.5 QB Rating in 2005.”

Now, it’s true that VY was a better runner than RGIII, however some consession must be made to RG3’s ACL last year as well.

Look, I’m not rying to be a mouthpiece for Baylor and RG3, I am a Longhorn through and through. However, I am just warning that we are not facing a doofus like Tannyhill and the losers from tAMU, and we are playing in Waco and I don’t like the matchup.

We should just wait until RG’s Wonderlic score comes out before we start anointing “who’s the greatest ever”

Too soon?

Yes, and VY’s was way higher than many national leaders before him.

I judge compared to a player’s peers. If the entire nation is throwing with a higher efficiency than before then of course the leaders should be higher as well.

I agree that Griffin is awesome. I have pimped him on here plenty. But twice the passer Young was is a silly statement so I called it out.

Yes, if he tries to throw McCoy’s interception cherry will likely be popped. If he tries to run, his fatally poor ball protection, questionable agility and speed, and doubtful pocket awareness could easily lead to a fumble. By game’s end he may be called a turnover machine, and the silly “we all need to support McCoy” talk, grounded in a single lucky run against the Ags, will die.

If Ash goes in, and we focus on running against their weak D line (including the Ash option), things will get better.

Alabama and LSU beg to differ. I would call us top five.

I think not.

Who among us would choose anybody but VY to lead the final drive against USC, given a choice of any QB in college football history?

It’s like you’ve never heard of OSU and OU.

Do lizards pant? This simile needs less lizard and more German shepherd.

I think in the 3rd quarter our DBs are fresh because of all those three-and-outs we forced Baylor to play, and Baylor is crushed by the repeated hammering of long drives in which our tailbacks batter them for 4-8 yards. See also the Texas Tech game.

Silly? Yes, your are right. So is saying that he arrived on a spaceship. These are simply remarks to emphasize his greatness (and danger to us).
Please forgive the hyperbole – I was a baby mechanic, not a writer.

Louis – what about LSU and bammy? Good defenses, yes – great? Hell, no!
Put it this way – would you take either defense over ours, today?
The SEC is well known for excellent defenses but offenses not as good as the Big 12.

Furthermore, my opinion is that, OVERALL, the SEC is a weaker conference than the Big 12.
Sure, their top two teams are better than our top two, but then what? Arky beat tAMU – big deal, a 6-6 team.

Hopefully Case won’t be in danger of looking bad because we will run it down their throats. When we do pass, the defense will be soft to it.

Robert Griffin is a phenomenal athlete, QB, and ideal Spread-offense operator. However, the comparison to Vince Young fails because of running ability.

Vince was more elusive, powerful, and productive as a runner than is RGIII.

Huckleberry,

You and I are about in line with the Bedlam result. (I had it 44-41 OSU) However, my opinion changed when I read the weather forecast: “Mainly cloudy and rainy. Highs in the upper 40s and lows in the low 20s with a 20 mph north wind that will gust in the 30’s.” Keep in mind that OSU’s stadium runs east-west, so this will be a crosswind. Not exactly the ice bowl, but I think it’ll be a factor on deep routes and the longer intermediate stuff.

Snide Aside,

“Put it this way – would you take either defense over ours, today?”

I would take LSU’s defense over Texas right now in a heartbeat, and I’d bet my home, cars, and children on being exceptionally happy with the result. Alabama’s is more iffy, but I’m not nearly as impressed with the Texas D as you are.

And Vince owns a steakhouse.

The Texas D is becoming the best pass-defense in the country. We can lock down the other teams’ top 3 receivers in man-coverage and our ends and overall DL pass-rush is really becoming very good.
Run-defense we’re lower on the list but it would take a truly powerful running game to do serious damage there.

VY may have had the better supporting cast, but the difference in Briles vs. Davis more than negates it.

Nate – Interesting observation. I’ll put it to you this way. Did either bammy or lsu have a better offense than OU or OSU or even Baylor? Do you think either team would/could have restricted any of the aforementioned teams to 6 points? Remember, we are talking defenses here and how they play TODAY!

You can’t make a judgement about our young and learning defense when we played you – we are light years different today.

Texas v Baylor: Texas has the defensive personnel to shut down RGIII. I love him, but that offense does not match up well with the Texas D right now. Texas on offense keeps it simple and on the ground. Good recipe.

LSU-Alabama: Bill Connelly at SB Nation hits this issue perfectly this week.

Every argument against that rematch veers away from football realities and into logical structures which start with “give someone else a shot” o “let’s redefine deserving” or something to that effect. I get anti-BCS and anti-SEC frustration, which are valid, but conflating that with Alabama’s resume makes no sense. If Oklahoma State gets into that game, then they deserve to be there as much as Alabama — but arguing that Alabama’s some sort of paper tiger is ridiculous.

Boyd, I agree with you, but I think that we do have an elite rush defense too. I think now that we trust our corners to be on an island, we can afford to have 7 in the box to pressure the qb and stop the run. manny’s defense is better when you have lock down db’s because he can do more with the guys up front when you trust you won’t get burned in the passing game.

Galactus-

Here’s the problem. You cannot play Cover Zero and put your corners on an island against Baylor. You can’t usually even play Cover 1. OU got torched playing Cover 1. TCU got torched even worse playing Cover 0.

Those are two good defenses. I think Texas has better personnel at corner than either of those two teams, but it is not a winning recipe.

Thermhere…….Neither OU or TCU have a top 10 defense. OU has the #52 total defense and TCU has the #45. That’s along way from Texas’ #9. And I credit the corners for allowing the d line and linebackers roam free.

Total Defense is so g.d. irrelevant when evaluating a defense it’s not even funny. You need to use context neutral stats to properly evaluate a defense.

Per FEI (Football Outsiders Stat), the Horns are 13, OU is 11, and TCU is 45. FEI is a drive based statistic.

Per S&P;+ (another FO Stat run by Bill Connelly at SBNation – Football Study Hall), the Horns are 6, OU is 5, and TCU is 23.

Keep in mind that OU and TCU’s numbers INCLUDE playing Baylor, who according to FEI/S&P;+ has the 1/6 best offense in the country; whereas Texas hasn’t had to face Baylor yet.

Look, I’m not a fool. Texas is a much better team than they were last year. I’m not even sure we’re going to win. But if the word “BAYLOR” wasn’t on the front of our jerseys, and you were looking at this blind to the name of the school that had been putting up this ridiculous offense performance this season, you’d be a lot less sure of yourself.

Baylor scored 28 offensive points (the other 7 on the INT return) in one half with its backup quarterback last weekend or anything.

PS my stance against total defense may be too strong, but there are much better available ways to evaluate a defense.

Weisse Versa – Nobody asks what VY’s and RG3’s IQ’s are when their butts are crossing the goal line!

This is the huge recruiting advantage the SEC has over the Big 12. The SEC can recruit 2 double digit IQ morons a year and the Big 12 can’t. Now you may say that just two a year is nothing, Really? What if they are 6’3’, 225 lbs. and can run like the wind? What if they are 6’8", 310 lbs. and meaner than hell? What if you recruited 6 players like this in 3 years?
SEC, SEC,SEC – Bullshit!

Thermhere…..if you haven’t been watching Texas defense over the last few weeks, they have been improving exponentially. Just based on what I saw last week along holding aTm on all of those drives on our side of the field…..I am a believer. I just think we get pressure on RGIII and I believe we nail him enough times to make him ineffective. Same goes for his back up if he goes out. Texas has a weird way of taking offenses out of their element. That’s what I am focusing on. If the back up came in and put up great numbers last weekend that let’s me know that alot of it is the system (not taking anything away from Griffin) and I believe Manny will figure it out.

The best defense in the country doesn’t give up those long TD runs that we gave up against Baylor. Or get picked apart by Landry Jones. Our defense is playing better now than it did against OU and I agree that we are a top 5 — I just don’t put us in the conversation with LSU or Alabama.

Ok State, I mean.

Galactus-

I have been watching Texas’s defense. It has improved. See my hedging comments.

The reason Florence was so effective is that Tech’s run D is so awful that he threw two deep playaction touchdowns when they had 8 playing the run and didn’t do much else.

My point about the name on the jersey remains. Texas fans cannot get it through their heads that Baylor has a decent little thing going – I spent 3 years in school at UT, so I know the general attitude. I think the average fan at BC is smarter, but a bit of that bias still hangs around.

Toadvine….i don’t think this is the same texas d from the ok state game. we kept weeden off balance in that game, but let the 2 runs get away. i wish we could look at the stats from the season at the half way point. Texas is doing what they are defensively in a pass happy and offensive driven big12. we have quite a few freshmen that have been developing nicely throughout the season. i just wish we could say the same for our offense.

Thermhere…..i do believe that Baylor has a good thing going. I am not taking away from anything they’ve done…including getting their 20th conference win since the big12’s inception. They definitely have something going and by bringing in the back up this past weekend I saw that maybe it is partially the system as well…..similar to Texas Tech’s rise a couple of years ago while the Pirate was there. I understand your argument and I do not wear orange colored lenses. I admit that this may very well be a blow out. Too many variables…….but it’s hard to deny that this match up is very intriguing. If texas is able to single cover the receivers with safety help over the top, it will be a long day for RG.

Fair enough. I’m not saying it’s going to be a blowout either, just that playing straight up man against us this year with or without safety help has generated pretty poor results for opposing defenses.

The horrible A&M; team beat RG III and the Baylor Bears by 27 points.

Last year a less than pumped Texas defense shut down RG III, a couple of long runs from scrimmage did the damage.

Texas offense is statistically as good as Kansas State and Iowa State, ISU scored 26 and KSU scored 36 points on the Bears.

Best defense Baylor has faced is OU and KSU, both teams are giving up 100 more yds a game than what Texas gives up.

Does it not surprise people that Baylor has only outgained the 9 common foes by 15 more yds than Texas has outgained the same 9 opponents. Baylor avgerages 576 yds a game. this match up is a classic SEC/Big 12 matchup. Texas being the SEC type team and Baylor the Big 12. SEC wins almost every time when their over powering defense shuts down the high flying Big 12 offense. As stated earlier, turnovers could turn the game into a rout for either team. No Texas turnovers and they win this one going away.

RGIII is going to put some points on us, regardless of our secondary that plays very well against mediocre to sometimes good passing offenses. He zips the ball wherever he wants, and his receivers catch it in and out of traffic.

I don’t see us matching Baylor in a shootout, if that’s what happens.

34 isn’t the unrealistic goal so of you seem to think. Aggy has a much better D than Baylor and we scored 27 on them. There were some D/ST scores but who says we won’t get some against Baylor as well. Baylor is weak where we are strong—-the run.

Defensively, while RG3 is a great athlete, he can’t beat us by himself. CB can be put on Williams man up and we’ll shut down the run. Baylor hasn’t played a Big 12 D playing even close to the level ours is right now. Aggy has a much better OL than Baylor and a much more balanced offense.

Our D will carry the day and our O (and D) will score enough. Our guys have more time to prepare and get some much needed rest. Texas will win.

Also ooking forward to post mortems, etc.

@Jake Lonergan-

While I agree that your run offense is a strength while our run defense is a strength, it’s a bit of a straw man w/respect to our offense.

We run the ball 217 yds/game (Texas runs it 211 yds/game). We average 4.92/attempt compared to 4.57/attempt for Texas.

And as far as A&M; being more balanced than Baylor, not true.
A&M;’s run/pass ratio this year is 49.2%/50.8%. Baylor’s run/pass ratio is 56.9%/43.1%

Therm – exactly how much of a whipping do you expect Baylor to lay on us?

Sorry, I meant to say our run defense is a weakness.

@Tex Long-

Please see above where I said I don’t think it will be a whipping, and I’m not even sure we’ll win.

Give Thermhere a break, at least he’s not an aggie, and makes good points. If they were playing anybody else but Texas I’d be rooting for them.

Thermhere: Other schools in the Big 12 don’t have the athletes we have to play man-coverage. We put Byndom on an island against both Fuller and Blackmon, I think we’re willing to do it against Terrance or Wright.

Galactus: If you want to play Man-coverage on big 12 offenses, you can’t put 7 in the box because they spread you out with slot receivers. How can Vaccaro or the 3rd linebacker play man-coverage on a slot receiver and still play in the box? It’s not possible.

Baylor’s running game is based on outnumbering you and punishing creases with the Zone game.
I’m betting we play our 2-deep man-under coverages and trust that Baylor can’t win by running up and down the field against us because of TFL’s or incompletions.

Meh, he came on here and pulled out the “Texas fans as arrogant” argument in his third post.

Boyd….we managed to do it against aTm with Vaccaro….one on one and he managed to get an interception…..it IS possible….just ask the football that Kenny intercepted.

I think Coach Diaz put it best in his comments yesterday. The key match-up is one of strength on strength, where Baylor excels at making explosive plays for TD’s, and the UT defense excels at keeping offenses from making those plays. Whichever side wins that battle likely determines which team wins the game.

Thermhere:

Sure Texas has not played Baylor, but OU has not played OSU either. So I’m not sure that argument is getting you anywhere.

I tend to think that LSU’s defense is better than ours, they have been pretty dominate all year long against very good offenses, Oregon, Arkansas, and West Virginia.

Texas has improved exponentially from the OU game, we are pretty clearly a top 5 defense. If our two defenses were to play a scrimmage against the same offense it would interesting to see how we stacked up.

Clearly, LSU is a much better team, the lack of experience at quarterback kills us, and since offense contributes to defensive success, well, LSU is just a much better team.

@Ian-

That would be a defensive game plan with a much more reasonable chance of success, in my opinion.

Toadvine -

It’s an issue of improvement. No, our defense in the first half of the season was not Top 5 quality. But to act as though what we will trot out on Saturday is the same defense that we did against the Oklahoma schools is nowhere close to accurate.

Our defense is on fire…..we just witnessed them dismantling aTm’s offense. Tannehill looked very pedestrian. We got pressures, sacks, 3-4 ints and we were in the back field all night. I mean we were physical upfront and made plays on the deep ball. We just look more aggressive every game. Vicious, ripping at balls and delivering good hits while gang tackling. Defense is legit…….as long as the offense can stay on the field to give the d a break, we will be fine.

Baylor has done much better at home than on the road this year, to say the least. 7 – 0 at home, 1 – 3 on the road, and that one win was by one point in overtime against Kansas, for crying out loud. Their average score at home is 51 – 32, and 29.5 – 50 on the road. Not exactly road warriors.

I know this is a home game for Baylor, but I understand that Texas often brings more fans to Waco than Baylor does for our matchups. Does Baylor’s good year reverse that trend? It seems that the more fans Texas can bring, the better our chances. And, btw, nice bit of scheduling, Baylor. 8 home games out of 12.

Galactus: Vaccaro had 2 tackles in that game, we didn’t use him against the running game instead we used him to lock down Swope. We handled the Aggy run game with 6 in the box, mostly.
If we had another lockdown corner who was physical enough to play in the slot maybe we would be using Vaccaro as an extra weapon to deploy against the run or pass but we don’t, so he stays at nickel.

We may allow our safeties to play pretty aggressive against the run and screens and trust our corners not to get burned down the sideline as we did against OSU but I doubt we do it frequently because Baylor a huge chunk of their yardage that way. They’re averaging like 10 yards per pass attempt. If you take that away and keep Griffin in the pocket I imagine their offense becomes manageable pretty quick.

key of the game is if Texas’ great DL play continues against Baylor. If so, Texas wins by 10…
I think Manny’s schemes will confuse RGIII and at least make him uncomfortable enough where Baylor scores but never gets into a good rhythm.

Texas will run the ball effectively enough to keep the ball away from Baylor and limit their offensive plays. i say 31-21 Texas

Just 2 more games with Gideon as our safety…just sayin

Boyd, you just helped my case……kenny can be used as a cover guy and locked down arguably the best receiver on aTm’s squad (fuller has not really shown up this year). kenny just adds to what our db’s have been able to do this year. baylor goes 4 wide yes we get stretched, but the front 6 have to get to RGIII, which they have been able to do the last few games vs other pass happy offenses. They go 3 wide and that just favors our d. Our defense is able to attack because manny trusts our db’s…he trusts that they won’t get burned, which allows him to call all of those wacky blitzes we have been seeing later in the season.

@Longhorn in Canada – we’re 6-0 at home, 1-3 on the road, 1-0 neutral.

We played Tech in Dallas, not in Waco. It counted as a “home” game though.

Galactus: the point is in regards to run defense, obviously we could really constrict the Baylor passing game if we want to make that our focus but they have done a lot of damage on the ground this year.

The basis of Baylor’s running game is spreading you out where you have to account for all their receiver weapons, and then gashing 5 or 6 man fronts with the Zone running game. Either we take our chances at them not doing enough here against honest fronts to beat us or we bring extra defenders into the box and get burned deep or in the screen game.

Given Diaz’s tendencies against other spread teams I bet we let them work us a little in the run game and count on tackles for loss, incompletions, and situational run defense to prevent them from beating us that way. Their OL isn’t physically dominant so it’s easy to foresee our DL giving up chunks of rush yardage but then securing a 3 yard TFL that kills a drive when Randall manhandles a guard on a zone play.

Another thing that could come up in this game: Diaz is really good at setting traps for running QB’s. He loves to use DL stunts to flush the QB into a normal tendency and then have a linebacker waiting for them.

If Kansas’s offense can score on Baylor’s D, Texas’s surely can.

In the words of Winston Wolf, “Well, let’s not start sucking each other’s dicks quite yet.”

We gotta beat somebody before our defense is better than LSU or Bama.

And, if Manny Diaz’s plan is to man up the Baylor WR’s and hope for the best, we are fucked. RG3 will be able to scramble well enough to extend plays past the time that we can cover everyone, and all those Baylor guys can really run.

My guess would be we mix coverages in dime and nickel sets and try to stop the run with our DL plus Keenan and Acho. We will try to maintain our rush lane discipline to bottle up RG3’s scrambling ability. We want to force RGII into contemplation not improvisation.

Thermhere – I forgot the Tech game was in Dallas. Sort of like our “home” game in Dallas this year. The only real difference in home/away between Texas and Baylor is that we played one out-of-conference game away, at UCLA.

Baylor has the #2 offense in the country – right behind Houston. Texas has like the 56th best offense in the country.

Just remember – OU has a pretty damned decent defense and still gave up 45 points to Baylor.

As far a bammy and LSU – no doubt they are great teams, but do you think either team has a better offense than OU. Okie State, Baylor or even tAMU? SEC has always been known for their excellent defenses – not so much for their offenses.

As far a Texas and the SEC? We own that “mighty” conference – check the records. Strangely, only Vanderbilt has a winning record against us.

Baylor has the #2 offense in the country – right behind Houston. Texas has like the 56th best offense in the country. RG3 is one in a thousand, but his receivers helped make him just as Shipley helped Colt.

Just remember – OU has a pretty damned decent defense and still gave up 45 points to Baylor.

As far a bammy and LSU – no doubt they are great teams, but do you think either team has a better offense than OU. Okie State, Baylor or even tAMU? SEC has always been known for their excellent defenses – not so much for their offenses.

As far a Texas and the SEC? We own that “mighty” conference – check the records. Strangely, only Vanderbilt has a winning record against us.

Given the injuries to Broyles and Whalen, I have no doubt that LSU has a better offense at the moment, and I would argue Alabama’s would be at least equivalent. When you remove their game against each other, LSU’s and Alabama’s offense are both moving at better than 40 a clip with a real commitment to a clock-grinding run game — and that’s with a significant amount of taking air out of the ball in the second half of their frequent blow-outs. You cannot ignore that the primary focus of those offenses is not to score 50 points. It’s to eliminate short fields and control field position. And they STILL score at a top 20 clip.

We heard this B12 offense thing ad nauseum in 2008, and it didn’t exactly play out in the bowls, did it? In B12/SEC match-ups, the SEC offenses stayed at their season averages, while the B12 teams dipped, on average, about 17 a game, if I remember correctly.

At this moment in time, if someone said I could trade any unit from Alabama or LSU for any unit of Texas for the Baylor game, I would take both offenses, both defenses, and LSU’s special teams. That’s no knock on Texas, just a reflection of two top programs at the peak of their powers. What Texas will look like shortly if everything goes according to plan (note the if).

prehist51 said:
November 29th, 2011 at 2:09 pm

“The horrible A&M; team beat RG III and the Baylor Bears by 27 points.”

I’m going to temper some enthusiasm around here just a little becasue you can’t compare how Baylor played against a really good K.St. team, a HORRIBLE ATM team nor Kansas team that went 0-9 in the conference… to how Baylor will play this weekend against. Baylor will be prepared to play Texas… everyone get’s ready to play Texas!

As for shutting down RGIII, it’s been noted in the print media that Texas will attempt to make RG “one dimensional” and control him… RG has NOT been “shut down” all year and don’t think our defense will manhandle him unless the pass rush is relentless and the guy is constantly picking himself off the ground on almost every pass play. I’ve seen Baylor play both Kansas & K.St. and RG is a beast… he likes to throw from the pocket, but will run when the pocket collapses… so I’m sure Manny will probably shadow RG like he did Klein w/ K.St… and I expect to see a LOT of Cover 2 type zone to take away the deep throws that Baylor & RG like to use… and they LOVE to go deep! I do have full faith in the secondary, but again, these receivers are about as good as what Ou threw at Texas… K.St. forced 4-5 turnovers because Baylor is as un-desciplined a team as there is in the Big 12, so forcing fumbles, tipping passes at the line of scrimmage as well as putting pressure on RG to hurry his throws… and laying the wood when the DB’s have the chance will make a difference.

To win, the Texas Offense will have to control this game by running the ball and with timely throws like it did in the Tech game and keeping the ball away from the Bu offense… Texas loses this game if it get’s into a shootout with Bu!

GOF – You missed the points of my remarks. I was NOT comparing Big 12 offenses to SEC defenses.
I maintained that Big 12 offenses were superior to SEC offenses. I also alluded to the fact that , on the whole, SEC defenses were better than Big 12 defenses (with the exception of Texas – which I firmly believe is equal to if not better than either bammy or LSU).
You want a historical example? How about the 2009 Natty? SEC’s best, Alabama, allowed a rank rookie (Gilbert) come within 3 points of beating them. In addition, at the time Colt went down, UT was actually LEADING Bama. You could almost hear the collective sigh from the bama fans AND coaches when he went out.
The SEC is a good conference but they ain’t the NFL and I get sick of hearing about h9ow great it is. The Big 12 has held it’s own with them for years and were it not for the whiners and malcontents could arguably be considered the better conference.

I also said that the top two SEC teams will beat the Big 12’s top two teams. However, the rest of the SEC does not impress me at all and I think the rest of the Big 12 would match and in a lot of cases be better.

I

Snide,

RGIII tore the knee up two years ago not last year and while he might not be back to where he was before the injury (A world class hurdler in the 400M) he moves just fine right now.

OU was not able to get consistent pressure on him and in their offense they have a receiver going deep on damn near every play. The mistake people make is thinking Baylor only has Wright at receiver, but their other two primary targets can run and were able to get behind the OU secondary.

RGIII does not like to get hit. He complains and whines every time he gets hit and ends up on the ground. He thinks anytime he’s touched it’s a flag. I think Texas will be able to get to him enough times to re-aggravate that concussion that he claims is ok.

Gotta think we approach this game like the Tech game. Try to limit their possessions by running consistently but when they do have the ball, limit the big play. Give them yards and hope to force a mistake that either turns it over or causes a third and long. Make them kick FGs rather than scoring TDs in the red zone. Probably easier said than done, but I think the blue print has already been tested and proven.

Galactus-

I am not endorsing this whatsoever, because I think it’s stupid, but when Robert was little, his dad would always talk about how Jim Brown would lay down for a while after he got hit to make the defense think he was weak and getting hurt.

That’s why he does it. I think it’s insane and stupid but whatever, no one asked me.

Snide – No real disagreement. The SEC’s big advantage is simple: it has 5 rolls of the dice to produce a great team every year to the B12’s two. I think the B12 on average produces a stronger group across the board – less mediocrity but also less greatness. We had programs with that potential over the past 10 years (AM, Nebraska, OSU) which never got over the hump, or even to the hump in AM’s case.

I love this Texas group, but if I had to pick a defense to win a game I bet the house on this Saturday, Texas isn’t it. I’ll take them moving forward, and I’m going to enjoy watching them grow into something special, but they’re not there yet. Alabama’s and LSU’s D are.

I would prefer a system which honors the “two best teams” approach, rather than “best PR wars and sound bites” approach, or “God, I really hate that damn (conference/team)” approach. Because I think we’ve seen where Texas (unfairly) sits in the beauty contest department right now. We get blamed for everything. Don’t think those knives won’t come out again if we find ourselves in the middle of a 3-teams-for-2-spots BCS PR war in the near future.

Huck,

I don’t disagree that we have improved. Now that was against a relatively anemic K-State and a banged up ATM. I think out defense is very good and playing at a very high level. I am just saying that it’s a little hyperbolic to compare us to LSU, in my opinion.

A lot of you guys are in for a rude awakening on Saturday. Here’s a news flash: you’re not the first team to think you can limit RG3 by hitting him. In fact, every team we’ve played this yera has tried this.

We have a very good O Line and very fast receivers plus a TE that is a mismatch. And Ganaway has been killing teams of draws when defenses get too aggressive.

I think this will be a good game and a win is far from certain for the Bears, but don’t think you’ll hit RG3 a few times and he’ll give up.

I always love to hear about how X Quarterback is a god of war and “sure, you can try and hit him but it won’t make a difference, everyone else has tried and failed.”

There are no exceptions, if you hit quarterbacks and pressure them they don’t play that well. Also, didn’t he get knocked out of their last game?

I think Manny Diaz will try and add RGIII to the list of dual threat QB’s he has handled which includes Collin Klein, James Franklin, Denard Robinson, and Cam Newton. The evidence suggests he knows how to do this.

“I think Manny Diaz will try and add RGIII to the list of dual threat QB’s he has handled which includes Collin Klein, James Franklin, Denard Robinson, and Cam Newton. The evidence suggests he knows how to do this.”

You realize that Diaz lost 3 of those 4 matchups, right?

Sorry to rain on your arrogance parade with facts.

Yes, Manny Diaz personally lost 3 of those 4 matchups. What an idiotic take.

2011 Kansas State averages 35 points in their other games. They scored 17 against Texas.
2011 Missouri averages 33.5 points in their other games. They scored 17 against Texas.
2010 Michigan averaged 33.6 points in their other games. They scored 14 against Mississippi State.
2010 Auburn averaged 41.5 points in their other games. They scored 17 against Mississippi State.

But yes, Diaz lost those games.

Our arrogance parade knows no rain.

The secret for Diaz is DL play. We’ve been training Okafor and Jeffcoat to contain running threat QB’s all year and we are playing tons of bodies on the DL. If you can get penetration inside, which our stunts and DT depth is providing, you can lead a guy like RGIII right where you want him.

Baylor has one of the best offenses in the country but their horrendous run defense and low quality of athletes on the OL makes them pretty vulnerable to a team like Texas.
The Texas offense that played Tech would roll over this team. Given our health though, it may be hard to get this one.

Also, for everyone that says things like “look what they did against OU! That’s a salty defense!”
OU isn’t fielding a secondary anything like ours. If you can handle their pressure there is a lot of candy downfield to be had. Much of our pressure is generated by the fact that there is nothing available downfield.

I love how Big 12 Round Robin scheduling is destroying attempts at transitive analysis. Matchups matter.

So the mighty UT is claiming moral victories now against Kansas State and Mizzou?

Nice.

“low quality of athletes on the OL "

http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/_/id/30700/big-12-position-rankings-offensive-line

Buy hey, maybe you guys can get a sack or two and claim a moral victory cause you really showed RG3 that one time.

Everyone has their own opinions about Texas/Baylor, SEC/Big 12. So i will weigh in with mine. 1) No team in the Big 12 could play within 3 TDs of LSU or Bama. 2) A bigger drop off from the top 2 teams in the SEC than there is in the Big 12. 3) SEC is tough because of its football philosophy, defense first, run the football down hill, control the clock and shorten the game. 4) Big 12 football is more exciting to watch, but does not win championships. 5) Texas and Kansas State are the only two teams that are trying to emulate the SEC in their football philosophy. 6) Texas has the 3rd best defense in the country right now, behind Bama and LSU. 7) No Big 12 team is even close to Texas when it comes to defense, OU defense played much better the first half than they have the second half.
8) As much offense as Baylor has generated, no doubt they are the best offensive team in the Big 12, Texas has outscored the 9 common opponents by a higher margin than Baylor has. 9) That’s what defense does. 10) Baylor’s defense is weakest where Texas is strongest. 11)Baylor thrives on the big play. 12) Baylor will get 2 or 3 big plays on saturday for TDs. Key for Texas is to not turn the ball over and give Baylor a short field for cheap scores. 13) Texas plays very well in Waco and will have as many if not more fans in the stands than Baylor. Been to the last 3 Texas/Baylor games in Waco and the Texas fans dominate both sides of the stands even on the Baylor home field side. 14) Baylor is my second favorite Texas team and I’m really proud of the program that Briles is building there. It is good for the Big 12 and college football. 15) Texas will win on saturday, turnovers will be the key.

Baylorline: Ubben? Really? The nature of Baylor’s scheme makes a huge difference in the success they have blocking. OU handled your running game and they didn’t do it by stacking the box, they did it because their front 7 is comprised of better athletes than Baylor has. The same will be true saturday.

prehist51:
Explaining the abundance of quality in the SEC is not remotely difficult and it has nothing to do with their old-school philosophies. There are more talented high school football players in the South than in other regions of the US. Take a look at the states which produce the most talent, anything stand out to you? Try and compare it to this map:
http://www.dixiescv.org/state-map.html

@Nickel Rover-

I take issue with your “quality of athletes on the O-Line” comment. We’ve put a lineman in the first or early second round the last 3 years. I don’t think we have anyone right now that’s going that high, but we have several draftable guys.

Further, Griffin is a far better passer than any of those guys on your dual threat QB list. Those guys are all run first/pass second guys. Griffin is a pass first/pass second/ok now i’m running guy. He is not the same kid he was 3 years ago.

@baylorline – you’re not helping. Manny Diaz didn’t “lose” any of those games – crappy offenses lost those games.

Baylorline,

That Ubben article is from July 20th. There were no football games then.

Baylor rushed for 134 yards against OU (178 gained without taking into account lost yards). Both RG3 and Ganaway averaged about 4 yards per carry. I hope you “handle” our running game as well too.

Sorry you don’t like Ubben. Baylor has had 3 O Linemen taken in the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft over the last couple of years, and only one of them was even recruited by Briles. We currenty have 3 to 4 draft prospects on the O Line including Blake who will be drafted this year.

Remind me again why MackGreg didn’t want GriffinIII?

I am not trying to help. I just think it is hilarious that mighty UT, which gets the best athletes in Texas without even trying, is reduced to claiming moral victories over Mizzou and Kansas State because the defense held them to below their season average.

Hell, you will get flamed on a Baylor board for making comments like that.

Thermhere: Your scheme produces OL. You’ve had some great athletes there but they are products of the system. The Baylor OL 2-deep is not stacked with elite OL talent.

I actually disagree with you about Griffin’s passing abilities in a few different ways. To begin with, I don’t think he’s radically different now than he was 3 years ago. Even as a freshman I think he excelled at looking downfield while scrambling. I’m sure he’s gotten better within the system but I don’t think his mentality of “pass-first” has changed, he just has better targets now.

Also, Cam Newton looks like a pretty good passer in the NFL. I might grant that RGIII is better than Diaz’s other dual-threat victims but those guys weren’t Eric Crouch or Taylor Martinez, they could throw the ball.

Baylorline: 134 yards on 38 carries against nickel and dime packages is not remotely intimidating. If that had resulted in success against the pass for OU you would have been shut down. However, despite that, they still couldn’t stop RGIII through the air.

Returning to the Bedlam portion of the thread… is there a plausible scenario in which OSU manages to jump to #2?

It’s making me crazy to even contemplate another FG fest between LSU and ’Bama, and although the $EC-chanting dipshits inhabiting the Deep South are looking forward to it with expectations that the entire world will embrace the certainty of $EC superiority, I have a feeling that the rest of the college football world will roll their eyes and change channels – that is, if they even tune the game in in the first place.

Surely, an LSU loss in the $EC CCG coupled with an OSU blowU blowout, would be enough to destabilize the 1-2 stranglehold… wouldn’t it? Pleeeeze?

I understand OSU is already doing well in the computers so I’m assuming that what would make the greatest impact would be a curb-stomping of OU that really impresses the voters.

I may post on the likelihood of that event.

UT’s 36 rushing yards on 45 tries (.8 yards a carry) against OU was pretty salty. And this is with Brown and Fozzy.

You guys are unbelievable.

You guys are unbelievable.

Ya gotta believe. Sorry you don’t. How many of us are posting on your board(s)?

Baylorline: your selective use of statistics without context is amusing to me.

“How many of us are posting on your board(s)?”

There are about 3 or 4 consistent posters on BFans that are UT fans. We would usually have a dozen or so quick hitters leading up to the UT game talking about kicking Baylor out of the B12, making tacky comments about Baylor players killing other players, etc., but I think last year and this year has taken a lot of the fire away from those guys.

“Baylorline: your selective use of statistics without context is amusing to me.”

And your lack of statistics (or really any support) to spout opinions that are directly contrary to the opinions of people that get paid to analyze and comment on teams and players is amusing to me.

…making tacky comments…

What??? Tacky comments? Must be mistaken identity. Are you sure they’re actual fans of The University, and not agy CFO’s in disguise?

Ha, if you say so. I’d take the top writers from this site over David Ubben any day of the week. I think most of our readers would as well.

How about this for support: You ran for less than 4 yards per carry against an OU defense that was playing nickel and dime fronts to stop your passing game. Texas A&M; and OSU had some success against your running game as well.

It’s the Baylor passing game that gets people, and our secondary is going to challenge you in ways that those teams didn’t. Of course, OSU and Aggy pounded you anyways.

…opinions that are directly contrary to the opinions of people that get paid to analyze and comment on teams and players…

So what? Citing statistics to support any opinion is nothing more than an exercise in demonstration of the truth of the adage regarding the three primary kinds of untruths: “Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics”. The jobs of “people that who get paid” are based on their entertainment values, not on the supportability of their opinions.

Here’s my unsupported opinion: you should be questioning your own support when your team is about to play at home in a rarely-filled stadium which will be filled this particular Saturday with more supporters of your opponent than with your own supporters.

@ Nickel Rover – “I actually disagree with you about Griffin’s passing abilities in a few different ways. To begin with, I don’t think he’s radically different now than he was 3 years ago. Even as a freshman I think he excelled at looking downfield while scrambling. I’m sure he’s gotten better within the system but I don’t think his mentality of "pass-first" has changed, he just has better targets now.”

I’ve watched every minute he’s ever played, and you’re wrong about this. He used to be a run first guy. He was DECENT at keeping his eyes downfield, but whereas now, he runs laterally to the LOS until the last possible second trying to keep the play alive for a throw downfield, back when he was a freshman, as soon as he broke contain if he didn’t immediately see an open receiver he was running.

No question that he’s got better targets now that before. Josh Gordon was a huge locker room problem, but I shudder to think about how good our offense would be if he had been able to quit slangin hydro.

@Tex Long-

Nice use of exaggeration. I will certainly grant that in years past the stands at the Case have been half full of UT fans. That won’t be the case this year. I would guess something like 75/25. And before you go flaming me and saying that 75/25 ain’t that great either…Duh, I know that.

But it’s incremental improvement, and I’ll accept it, for now.

Attendance AND grammar smack?

This thread is the message board equivalent of a Blake Gideon missed tackle: trying for the knock out — emphasis on the word “trying”

Blake Gideon is every safety that has ever suited up for Baylor.

Nickel Rover-

Believe it or not, Blake Gideon is significantly faster than Jordan Lake.

I have trouble believing that, I’m pretty sure Gideon doesn’t break 4.7 at the combine, I mean, UT pro day.

Not Robert Blackmon (ask Pete Gardere and Donovon Forbes about that).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtdMYIsBe0M

And Dixon is pretty good, as you’ll see Saturday. But point taken.

Dixon is pretty solid, but he’s a nickel, which is pretty different. Your 1989 youtube link, besides being from 1989, features 2 interceptions that most Big 12 safeties should be able to make.

Dixon is actually a hybrid. He lines up at S as much as anything.

Robert Blackmon was drafted in the 2nd round and played 9 years in the NFL. But, of course, we’ve already established you know more than NFL scouts about players, apparently including ones that have already had NFL careers.

Does Baylor ever line Dixon up at safety? Can you tell me what his assignments are on the field?

I’m not sure why you think the NFL career of a Baylor graduate from the class of 89 should be impressive to anyone here. Do you know how many safeties Mack Brown has put in the NFL since then? Add another one in Vaccaro for the next draft class.

@baylorline YOU ARE NOT HELPING.

Dixon never lines up at safety. Dixon is a nickel/outside backer/$ hybrid.

And Nickel Rover, I happen to know for a fact that Jordan didn’t break 4.7 either.

That’s what I figured. At any rate, neither have the speed that you would prefer from a modern Big 12 safety. The difference is that Gideon is more of an exception than a rule around here whereas at Baylor he makes 100 tackles and all-conference every year.

I’m finishing the BU-OU game. Baylor has so many fast receivers. I’m not sure it’s possible to keep them from accumulating yards save for running the ball and keeping them off the field, which we will surely try.
TO and red zone defense is the key.

Whole lot of stupid and fail on this thread.

And themhere, sorry I am not helping. Try getting a business plan that isn’t sucking off horns.