Here are the probabilities that Texas beats their remaining opponents:

Baylor: 36.7%

Texas Tech: 51.4%

West Virginia: 36.9%

Kansas: 91.5%

TCU: 51.1%

Here are the probabilities that Texas wins at least n more games:

1 game: 99.2%

2 games: 87.7%

3 games: 56.3% (bowl eligible)

4 games: 20.9%

5 games: 3.3%

Despite last week's probabilities, I had a gut feeling that Texas was going to somehow get out of Manhattan with a win. While I think data and statistics are important for disciplining decision making and forming expectations, I have a hard time suppressing that emotional part of my brain that just wants things to work out a certain way.

We knew a month ago that this Texas team was probably going 6-6. This team is just as mediocre now as it was in August and will likely be in late November. I try to remind myself of that when my mind spirals off in an effort to place a narrative on the season. The defense is getting worse! Special teams continues to be a net negative! Good coaches should be able to correct this stuff as the season progresses, right? To be honest, I just don't know. I've mentioned in another post recently that I believe significant changes in team quality occur during the off-season and that only minor improvement can be realized during the season. The evidence for that belief is anecdotal though; I have no insight into how players are supposed to be coached or which fundamentals of a team can be realistically altered on a week-to-week basis.

Regardless, I'm angry now that it appears players haven't been given adequate instruction over the past several months. The analytical part of my brain tells me the reason might be that the team is still young, that the penalties are a necessary part of letting an inexperienced team play aggressively, that the coordination issues in the secondary will resolve themselves in time, that the offense is led by a freshman quarterback and that the two-deep along the offensive line still features far too many underclassmen. And yet...

Looking forward, odds are pretty good that Texas loses again this week. It's Texas Tech that concerns me most at this point. Sagarin's model tells us that the Longhorns are slightly favored in that game; but, the thought of that offense against this Texas defense is truly frightening. And if Texas loses that game, the probability of a losing season will increase considerably.

Anyway, here's the updated probability distribution for Texas's final record.