Here are the probabilities that Texas beats their remaining opponents:

Texas Tech: 51.9%

West Virginia: 45.9%

Kansas: 94.3%

TCU: 57.5%

Here are the probabilities that Texas wins at least n more games:

1 game: 99.4%

2 games: 86.9% (bowl eligible)

3 games: 50.4%

4 games: 12.9%

With a win over Baylor now in the rearview, Texas is set up for a decent chance at a respectable finish. Given that the 'Horns are now favored in three of their remaining four games, it shouldn't be surprising that 7-5 (37.5%) is now the most likely outcome at the conclusion of the regular season. And the probability of going undefeated the rest of the way now stands at a non-trivial 12.9%. Of course, these numbers assume a standard home advantage; so, if you believe Texas should be penalized by a greater amount on the road than the average team, adjust these odds slightly downward.

Here's this week's estimate of the distribution of Texas's regular season record.