Last Week: 1-5 ATS 6-0 SU
For the Year: 35-41-1 (.461) (-$960) ATS 55-22 (.714) SU
Quick Thoughts From Last Week:
Finally Things Work Out for Ohio State Ohio State didn’t have several offensive linemen in their two-deep, they were without14 scholarship players, they were without head coach Ryan Day, but it didn’t matter as the Buckeyes rushed for 322 yards in a blowout of Michigan State.
Auburn Does Little to Slow Down Texas A&M The Aggies ran for a season-high 313 yards and the good Kellen Mond showed up as Texas A&M ran away from Auburn with 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.
Alabama Obliterates Another Rival Alabama’s 55 points were their most ever against LSU, and if you consider they had 45 points at halftime, it could have been much, much worse. DeVonta Smith was the man again, hauling in 8 receptions for 231 yards and three touchdowns, and basically didn’t play the entire second half.
Iowa State Steamrolls West Virginia the combined score of Iowa State’s last two home games: Iowa State 87 Opponent 6.
Baylor Gives Oklahoma Trouble Again It remains to be seen what kind of program Dave Aranda is building in Waco, but his team has been in just about every game this season. Last weekend they held Oklahoma to just 269 offensive yards, their fewest since 2014, and snapped their 60-game streak of scoring at least 28 points, the longest in FBS history. But still, it was a loss.
Texas Runs Over Kansas State Where the hell has that been this season, hell the last four seasons? Texas running backs accounted for 316 rushing yards on Saturday, when they had not had as many as 200 in the Tom Herman era before.
Refresh. Refresh. Refresh.
If you are anything like me, that’s how your Sunday was spent, but alas, it was all for naught as Tom Herman is still the head football coach at the University of Texas and Urban Meyer is still employed by Fox Sports (and Ohio State University).
Texas tried selling their soul to the Devil to hire Urban Meyer and the Devil said their money was no good.
And of course, the narrative on Twitter and across sports websites Sunday night into Monday morning was that Texas is a dumpster fire and they were foolish to think they could even get Urban Meyer to listen.
Once again, Texas was a laughingstock.
And even worse, they are stuck with a coach that they don’t want, and most of the Plan B options are a who’s who of guys that make Gary Barnett look like Bear Bryant.
Say what you want about Tom Herman’s job performance, or if his personality, but I’m not sure anyone deserves what culminated this week but has been rumored to be going on for a good two months.
He makes $6 million a year to deal with things like this, but “dumpster fires” get set when you try big and fail. All that’s left is for Texas to look around and say, “what coaching search? We have a head coach, he’s right there.”
Insert Gif of kid holding candy looking wide eyed looking around here.
Perhaps it isn’t really over, it’s just over for now. And perhaps Herman will be gone this time next week, or perhaps Herman will be back in 2021. it really depends on which 31 Flavors rumor you want to hear.
But whomever the coach is when the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns come to town next September 4th, he (or she?) better be better than Herman was this year, because those Cajuns lost one game this year, by three points to Coastal Carolina.
And he’ll be coaching in an improved Big 12.
With road trips to Fayetteville, Waco, Ames, Fort Worth and Morgantown.
Good luck, Mr. (or Mrs.) Texas Football Coach in 2021.
You’ll need it.
USC -3 @ UCLA:
USC has pretty much dominated this series since the Pete Carroll era started in Los Angeles, with the Trojans winning 16 of 21 (they actually won two straight before Carroll arrived). The Bruins had a three game winning streak mixed in there from 2012-2014, and won two years ago in Pasadena, but this game hasn’t gone well for them lately overall.
USC had that weird start to the season where they needed improbable comebacks against Arizona State and Arizona just to survive, but then they went to Utah and dominated the Utes, which is not easy to do in Salt Lake City, and dominated Washington State last weekend as well. They only allowed 30 points total in those two games.
UCLA is in year three of the Chip Kelly experiment, and after disastrous results his first two seasons (he was 7-17 in Westwood coming into this season) he has his Bruins out to a 3-2 start (end?) in Year three, with their two losses coming by a combined 9 points to undefeated Colorado and pre-season darling Oregon.
Certainly something to build upon, and this would fast track that rebuilding project, but USC is just better at this point.
USC 38 UCLA 28
ATS – USC
SU – USC
North Carolina @ Miami -3:
The Miami Hurricanes started the season 3-0, and had some hype, but then they lost to 25 and everyone just about forgot about them, but right now they sit at 10th in the country and haven’t lost since that Clemson game.
This one is your classic offense meets defense game, as the Hurricanes have held five opponents to less than 20 points, while North Carolina has scored 49 points or more against their last three opponents not named Notre Dame. Sam Howell continues his great season, throwing for 3,129 yards with 26 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions.
Meanwhile, Miami quarterback D’Eriq King has slowed down after a hot start, but we know he can take over games. The Tar Heels have some trouble on the road, as we found out in Tallahassee and Charlottesville this season.
Miami 31 North Carolina 27
ATS – Miami
SU – Miami
Georgia -13 @ Missouri:
Look, when you lose Cincinnati/Tulsa, Texas A&M/Ole Miss and Ohio State/Michigan, you have to pick some games like this.
I hate this year.
Georgia 28 Missouri 23
ATS – Missouri
SU – Georgia
Oklahoma State -6 @ Baylor:
When the Longhorns were going through their worst of times a few years back (no jokes, please), Oklahoma State was able to rise and fill the void before the rise of Iowa State. And they did it by feasting on teams worse than them — they were 28-2 from 2013-17 as a ranked team against an unranked team.
After losing last week to TCU in Fort Worth, the Cowboys are now 7-6 the last three seasons.
Baylor has won 5 of 6 in this series, including two in a row after last year’s 45-27 win in Stillwater where the Bears scored 35 second half points. Oklahoma State is limping towards the finish line on the 2020 season, but I think they come out with a win here.
Oklahoma State 34 Baylor 24
ATS – Oklahoma State
SU – Oklahoma State
Oklahoma -12.5 @ West Virginia:
Oklahoma has won every meeting between these two in the Big 12 era, including last year’s beatdown in Norman, 52-14. I’m sure we all remember the shootout they had with the Sooners in Morgantown two years ago, a game that finished a 59-56 Sooner victory.
Two weeks ago this game was scheduled as a night game in Morgantown, and while there is reduced capacity, that sounded a lot more intimidating than a noon start that this one is.
The Mountaineers will hang around for a bit, but they appear to be limping towards the finish line, as well.
Oklahoma 31 West Virginia 17
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma
Texas -30.5 @ Kansas:
Texas has lost just once to Kansas since World War II, that ill-fated last season trip to Lawrence with a lame duck coach...hmm.
Of course, every Longhorn fan knows how badly the Longhorns have played in Lawrence over the years...even Vince Young had his issues (and as last year’s game in Austin proved, they can be a pain to Texas at home as well).
But look at these scores in Kansas:
2018 Texas 24 Kansas 17
2016 Kansas 24 Texas 21
2014 Texas 23 Kansas 0
2012 Texas 21 Kansas 17
2008 Texas 35 Kansas 7
2004 Texas 27 Kansas 23
2000 Texas 51 Kansas 16
1996 Texas 38 Kansas 17
Throw out last week’s weird game in Lubbock (the teams combined for 219 passing yards in Texas Tech’s 16-13 win), and Kansas has lost every game this year by at least 15 points.
They lost to Coastal Carolina by 15. Lost to Baylor by 34. Lost to Oklahoma State by 40. Lost to West Virginia by 21. Lost to Kansas State by 41. Lost to Iowa State by 30. Lost to Oklahoma by 53.
They are 123rd (out of 127) in the SP+ overall rankings. 124th in offense. 111th in defense.
Their leading passer has only broken the 200-yard mark once. All season. Every team has scored at least 38 points against them.
It apparently isn’t easy to win at Kansas, but you figured Les Miles would at least make Kansas sneaky good, but they might be even worse now than they were before he started that job 25 months ago. They are now 3-17 in his tenure there, after David Beatty was 4-20 his last two seasons.
The last time the Jayhawks won as many as four games was 2009, the season that got Mark Mangino fired because he had the audacity to go 5-7.
It could be worse.
Texas 45 Kansas 12
ATS – Texas
SU – Texas
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