Last Week: 2-4 ATS 3-3 SU
For the Year: 37-45-1 (.451) (-$1,180) ATS 58-25 (.699) SU
Quick Thoughts From Last Week:
Cardiac Trojans Strike Again For the third time in five games played this regular season, USC rallied to take the lead in the final minutes and held on for the victory. Their victim this time was their cross-town rival UCLA, who had an 18-point lead at one point in the game. Kedon Slovis threw for five touchdowns but also was intercepted twice.
Mack Truck Runs Over Miami North Carolina running backs Michael Carter (308 yards) and Javonte Williams (236 yards) produced the most rushing yards by teammates in one game in FBS history. The Tar Heel offense tallied 778 yards in total, the most yards allowed by a Miami defense in program history. The loss probably drops Miami from the Orange Bowl….to the Cheez-It Bowl (which admittedly are delicious).
What if... The No Shit Sherlock Tour continues in Athens, after Georgia put up 615 total yards behind USC transfer J.T. Daniels, who threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns in their rout of Missouri. It was only the third start for Daniels (it is unclear if it was the injury rehab or a coaches’ decision that kept Daniels out), just imagine if he had started against say, Florida, when the Bulldogs only managed 112 yards passing? Regardless, Daniels is back next year, so prepare for the Georgia 2021 hype now.
Oklahoma State Wallops an Uninterested Baylor Baylor didn’t have many wins this season, but they were in every game until Saturday, when Oklahoma State rushed out to a 28-0 halftime lead and never looked back. The Cowboys were without Tylan Wallace (injury) and Chuba Hubbard (opt-out), but Dillon Stoner pitched in with 247 yards receiving and three touchdowns. Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer announced the next day his intent to transfer, so you have to wonder if there was something dirty in the water last week in Waco.
LSU Kicks Florida out of Playoff Contention Florida literally threw away their chance of the College Football Playoff with that bizarre unsportsmanlike penalty on the final drive, which culminated in a 57-yard field goal by LSU kicker Cade York (the longest in school history). York was one of just 54 available scholarship players for the Tigers. Florida had a chance to kick a field goal to win themselves, but the 51-yard attempt just missed.
Wisconsin is Terrible In a game that was hastily added to this column last week after two cancellations, the Badgers averaged 1.7 yards per carry and that shockingly wasn’t enough to defeat Iowa. The Badgers haven’t scored more than 7 points in three straight games.
The University of Texas at Austin has graduated members of Congress, cabinet leaders, first ladies, Nobel Laureates, astronauts, members of the art community, but yet none of them obviously contributed to that asinine statement released by the athletic department last weekend.
To recap, since the Kansas State game, Urban Meyer said no to a job that wasn’t open, but hold it, it will be open, we just have to wait until this recruiting class signs (like they can’t transfer after that), to wait just a minute, Urban might be the coach again (but the job still isn’t open), and then our genius athletic department decided to finally squash the rumors and innuendo by releasing a statement that said,
“Tom Herman is our coach”.
Not will be, not we’re going forward and honoring his contract, “is the coach” as of 1:30 on a Saturday afternoon in December.
Of course, about five minutes later, “sources” (and TWO of them!) had to confirm that of course Chris Del Conte meant will be the head coach for the 2021 season, don’t be ridiculous.
Off course, that very definitive statement did nothing to stop the decommitments or transfers or players leaving early or recruits choosing other schools.
What a mess.
The same people that were so sure of Tom Herman’s ability to coach four years ago now say he is trash and every day he is allowed to be in the athletic department is one day closer to Texas moving down to FCS, and are eager to replace Herman with another sure-fire candidate, erasing Herman off of their white board and writing in names such as [insert hot Group of Five coach here] or [coach with loose Texas ties] or [mystery NFL candidate] or [that guy that coached so and so to a high school championship].
Then, of course, there are the mouth breathers that want Herman fired because he, gasp, had the audacity to stick up for his players during the Eyes of Texas imbroglio earlier this year (when the athletic department left him on an island).
You know how when you’re browsing Instagram and seeing everyone’s vacation pictures and their perfect family photos and their date nights and getting awfully jealous of how green that grass is, the same is going on with Texas fans trying to talk themselves into the candidate of the day.
Sigh.
That isn’t to say that Herman hasn’t brought all of this upon himself.
It became apparent to me after the TCU game this year that Tom Herman is not the person for this job, but I also don’t think it is prudent to spend $25-35 MM to buy him and his assistants out just to hire someone that we’re just going to do this dance with again in two to three years.
There is only one surefire correct answer here, and depending on who you believe, he is either never coaching again, doesn’t want this Texas mess or has already been hired but is just being Super Nice Guy to his ex-girlfriend and is trying to make sure she gets another date and out the door and to the Uber and to the restaurant safely.
Either way, we should find out soon what that direction is going to be, and for the sake of the program and for my sanity, whatever the decision is the powers that be need to be in complete alignment and move forward with confidence that this is the right decision for right now, even if we have to fake it really, really well.
Kirk Herbstreit was correct that this is a cesspool, and no it wasn’t for the reasons he says it was, the situation Texas finds itself in is not any different than it would be at any other blue-blood program, but right now this toxicity that is surrounding this program is helping nobody. Not the administration, not the head coach, not the fans, not the players, not the recruits, and certainly not the future health of this program.
And no, that toxicity isn’t going away by hiring Mario Freakin’ Cristobal or a coordinator from a perennial playoff contender that hasn’t been snatched up by another program.
There are no easy decisions right now. The athletic department has no easy decisions if Meyer “is” truly not interested, Meyer doesn’t have an easy decision to uproot his life and move to Texas, and if Herman is indeed retained for the 2021 season, he doesn’t have any easy decisions to make on how to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat and make good out of an almost impossible situation that starts in 261 days.
The only easy decision?
Have someone proofread your official statements.
American Athletic Conference Championship Game: Cincinnati -14.5 vs. Tulsa:
The Cincinnati Bearcats have not played since before Thanksgiving, when they defeated Central Florida 36-33 in that game where they could have scored late but then got cute and almost fumbled the game away.
That UCF game was a bit of an aberration due to the fact that the Golden Knights scored 33 points in that ballgame while the Bearcats didn’t give up more than 20 points to anyone else. In fact, they held five of eight opponents to 13 points or less while their offense has scored 36 points or more in five straight games.
Meanwhile, Tulsa has had five games postponed this season, including two against this week’s opponent. The Golden Hurricane also feature an outstanding defense, giving up as much as 30 points only once and holding Oklahoma State to 16 and SMU to 24.
Bearcats quarterback Desmond Ridder has enjoyed a great season, accounting for 27 touchdowns. One fun comparison? Ridder has 1,748 career rushing yards, while Tulsa starting quarterback has -243.
Cincinnati defeated Tulsa 24-13 last year in Cincinnati, that probably sounds about what it should be this year as well.
Cincinnati 24 Tulsa 13
ATS – Tulsa
SU – Cincinnati
PAC-12 Championship Game: Oregon vs. USC -3:
How unstable is it that we can have replacement conference championship candidates lined up like this is a golf tournament? I feel like 20 years from now we’re all going to be sitting around discussing Tom Herman’s 10 national championships and how wild 2020 was….and how we kind of miss the schedule a game on Friday play it on Sunday wild west mentality.
Anyhow, as of press time it is Oregon and USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game, and that is certainly subject to change. Oregon enters this game with a two-game losing streak, which is certainly what you want your conference championship game representative boasting about on their resume.
USC somehow gave up 56 points to Oregon last year in Los Angeles when they didn’t allow any points in the first quarter — but allowed 28 in the second. Justin Herbert was great that day and Kedon Slovis wasn’t, but of course now Justin Herbert is tasked with the impossible task of saving Anthony Lynn’s job while Slovis just threw for five touchdowns last week.
Oregon started the year 3-0 and was in the Top 10 of the AP Poll before they stumbled against the juggernauts known as Oregon State and California. Turnovers, penalties and inconsistent offense sunk the Ducks in those games, which of course is why Oregon is rushing to give head coach Mario Cristobal an extension.
USC has a shot at a Friday night showcase here, with all eyes of a national audience upon them as they stake their claim to the playoff should one of those Top 4 falter.
USC 38 Oregon 31
ATS – USC
SU – USC
Big Ten Championship Game: Northwestern vs. Ohio State -20.5:
Win this one and Ohio State is likely headed towards the College Football Playoff despite only playing six games this year — I do wonder what would have happened had Northwestern finished the season undefeated and won this game?
But of course the Wildcats did not finish the season undefeated (but only scored 30 or more points once, in the season opener against Maryland), they struggled mightily against Michigan State and then eventually fell 29-20, the same Michigan State squad that was blown out by Ohio State two weeks ago 52-12.
I’m not a big fan of transitive property, but that doesn’t bode well for the underdog.
It also doesn’t bode well that Northwestern is 1-32 against the Buckeyes since 1972, or that Ohio State won last year in Evanston, 52-3.
Ohio State 38 Northwestern 17
ATS – Ohio State
SU – Ohio State
SEC Championship Game: Florida vs. Alabama -17:
Alabama is likely in the playoff win or lose, but if you think Nick Saban is going easy on anybody…
Of course it is hard to even define what going easy is for Alabama, who won 10 conference games this year by an average score of 49.5 - 16.8. They have the conference’s statistically best offense and defense, hold the FBS record of consecutive games with 35 points or more (23) and haven’t allowed more than 17 points in a game since mid-October.
Dan Mullen was on to something last week — they would be better off not playing in this game.
Alabama has won the last six meetings between these two teams, including the SEC Championship in 2009, 2015 and 2016 — all six of those have been by at least 14 points.
Alabama 45 Florida 24
ATS – Alabama
SU – Alabama
ACC Championship Game: Clemson -10.5 vs. Notre Dame:
Of course everyone remembers that these two teams met in South Bend last month, when the Irish defeated the Tigers 47-40 in double overtime. Clemson, of course, was without Trevor Lawrence, but I’m not sure they really missed him when D.J. Uiagalelei threw for 439 yards and two touchdowns.
The Tigers were also without some important defensive players who will be back in this one, and that is a good thing for them as Notre Dame rolled up 500 yards in their previous meeting.
My issue here is that I am not sure that Ian Book can continue to match Lawrence or Uiagalelei in production, and I’m not sure that Notre Dame has the defense to get the Clemson offense off of the field.
The Irish probably know that as well and will try to rely on a strong running game and perhaps the best offensive line in America to keep that offense off the field, but i’m not sure how long that will work.
Clemson 31 Notre Dame 28
ATS – Notre Dame
SU – Clemson
Big 12 Championship Game: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma -6:
Here is another one where the teams already played earlier this season, as we all remember the Cyclones knocking off the Sooners 37-30 in Ames in October. Brock Purdy threw for 254 yards and a touchdown in that game, while Breece Hall ran for 139 yards and two touchdowns.
Spencer Rattler had some issues in that game, and unfortunately for the Sooners, they did not get any help from the running game, which only contributed 3.5 yards per carry in that match-up.
Enter Rhamondre Stevenson.
Stevenson didn’t play in that game due to a suspension, but since he has been back, he has been a spark plug for the Sooner rushing attack, rushing for 382 yards and 6 touchdowns since his return on Halloween.
Rattler has improved since then as well, throwing for 13 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions in his last six ball games.
The Oklahoma defense has also been playing well as of late, as they have not given up 20 or more points in 5 of 6 games since the Texas game.
I expect a bit of a slower game than the Big 12 reputation that precedes it, and unfortunately, it is hard to bet against the Sooners in the Big 12 championship.
Oklahoma 34 Iowa State 24
ATS – Oklahoma
SU – Oklahoma
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Classy Tom t-shirts.