COLLGE FOOTBALL BETTING: Over/Under Regular Season Wins

Armed with the regular season win total (no bowl, no conference championship) betting lines released by 5dimes, I will now guide you to a prosperous and successful 2013. Actually, total win predictions with partial numbers (7.5, 9.5, 11.5 etc) are notorious sucker bets, but I'm assuming you're a sick gambler who spends more time playing roulette instead of craps.

If you're not a gambler, it's still a fun exercise, because it's a way of challenging our perceptions.

For quick clarification a +120 bet means you must wager $100 to win $120. A -120 bet means you wager $120 to win $100.

And before we get into my bets, the leisure suits handicapped Texas in such a way that I wouldn't consider it (9.5 Wins, Over -150, Under +110) in either direction. Screw that. That's lose-lose.

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My favorite bets (of a lot of bad ones).....

KSU

Over 8.5 (+150)

Under 8.5 (-195)

My bet: Take Under 8.5 with the stiff penalty.

Vegas is pushing you hard to a nine win prediction, based on 3 things. An appealing payout (and strong penalty on the Under bet), the seductive guarantee of Kansas State's 3 OOC wins, and the default assumption that KSU will pull it together simply because Bill Snyder is in charge of things.

A successful over bet requires KSU to go 6-3 in the Big 12 with a brand new defense, a tough in-conference early schedule, and a new QB. Playing in a league where 7 of the Top 10 teams are Top 40 material. Snyder's 2011/2012 teams - essentially the same crew of guys that went 21-5 - are all gone now. Before them, there were two Snyder KSU teams that went 6-6 and 7-6, respectively. I'm wagering that's the kind of KSU team we're looking at in 2013.

Texas A&M

Over 9.5 (-180)

Under (+150)

My bet: Take Under. Bet $100 to win $150.

This isn't Aggie hate. I would run away from this bet at even odds. A&M's schedule is kinder than Johnny Football's online course load, and it's clear that Sumlin has tapped into something, but I'm more than happy to take a flyer on A&M's chances for a small implosion based on the mercurial nature of their signal caller, or simply just banking on a successful season losing three games against some of the following: Alabama, @Ole Miss, Vandy, @ LSU, @Mizzou.

I'm not a fan of A&M's defensive prospects and that puts them in peril in games that most have already marked with a W. In short, you're being paid a bonus to bet on the chances of A&M going a respectable 9-3. That's not bad. And if they string together a magical season, so be it.

Do you see any bets that you like?

If you don't want to follow the link, here's the chart: