In case you didn't see it, FiveThirtyEight ran a correlation of 247 team talent (stars) to FPI rankings in 2015-16. Although using a limited sample taken during our dark days, it should not be a surprise that Texas ranks #122 out of 128 programs in actual FPI vs. expected FPI (given our #10 talent rank). Meanwhile, the Big 12 has overachievers in OU (#8), K-State (14), OkState (15), Baylor (18), TCU (25), and WVU (27). Tech and Iowa State met expectations in the 60s, while Kansas is dead last in the list at #128. Much of the over-achievement may have come at our expense given those programs' out of conference schedules, but nevertheless, it's a tough neighborhood of McMansions for the Joneses to drive through on the way back to our gated blue blood hills.
FiveThirtyEight's model suggests that "recruiting scores explain about 65 percent of the variation in team performance". Sadly it's been nearly 3 years since we've had a good daggastats discussion on teasing out the coaching contribution to team performance, and hopefully we might revisit that someday. However, to the extent that coaching matters, it might be worth noting that Matt Rhule's Temple team was #7 in out performance (just ahead of OU and Chris Petersen's 2nd and 3rd year UW teams); looking beyond the loss to Liberty, we might expect Baylor to stay in the outperformer list.
Only somewhat surprisingly, Alabama and Ohio State actually outperform expectations, with Michigan close behind.
Does misery love company? Georgia is #109, Notre Dame is 89, and USC is 85. Auburn clocks in at 82, our dear Aggies at 72 in the company of Florida and Nebraska. Nah, I'm not feeling better.
LSU, Penn State, and Florida State are basically meeting expectations. Of course that still cost Les Miles his job. Cal outperformed at # 44, but Sonny's wanderlust cost him his job.
Still have a hankerin' for some HarsinWhite? Boise State is #21, sandwiched between Greg Davis/Ferentz's Iowa and Herman's Houston.
Last but not least, Maryland outperformed Texas at # 117. Must be the DJ at practice.
In summary - the best programs did more with more, most of our league does more with less, and we are left talking about magic fairy dust for a few more weeks.