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Bash Your Bookie Bets: Week 5

Posted by Trips Right on September 26th, 2007 under Football, Uncategorized

Gaining some momentum, I’m now a solid 14-10-2 overall and a perfect 4-0 on double unit plays. Up 8 units minus juice ain’t too shabby.

All plays 1 unit unless stated otherwise. Here are the plays.

Southern Miss +11 @ Boise State. Yes, I realize this game is being played on the smurf turf, but this isn’t your baby daddy’s Boise State team. Ian Johnson has struggled running the ball without the benefit of the Zabransky passing attack. He averaged 4.1 yards per carry in a loss @ Washington and had just 3.5 yards a tote in an ugly home win vs. Wyoming. QB Taylor Tharp is averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt and has an anemic 3 TD passes and 3 picks on the year. For comparison sake, Zabransky averaged 9 yards per attempt last season.

Reporter

Defensively, the Broncos are yielding a solid 250 yards a game, but the Southern Miss offense should be the toughest test for Boise to date. Senior QB Jeremy Young is enjoying a great start to the season and seems to be reaching a production level that matches his physical skills. He’s a big strong athletic guy, who is second on the team in rushing, and should pose problems for the Broncos D. Talented sophomore RB Damion Fletcher is coming off a workmanlike 27 carries for 111 yards in a win vs. a tough East Carolina defense. Coach Jeff Bowers will play it close to the vest and keep his Golden Eagles in this game where they’ll have a shot to win in the 4th quarter. Vegas calls for a total in the high 40’s but it’ll be a bit lower. 24 to 21 Boise.

West Virginia -6.5 @ South Florida. Sorry, I’m not a believer in the Bulls becoming a national power just yet, especially in this spot with a juggernaut of a WVA team coming into Tampa with revenge on its mind. We all know what kind of explosiveness the ‘Neers bring to the party week in and week out, it’s just a matter of figuring out if they’ll bring it emotionally. This is one of those golden weeks where we don’t have to wonder. They’re going to be amped for this game. And the linesmakers have done us a favor buying into USF’s wins over a couple BCS schools. Victories over a grossly overrated Auburn club, and a young, hapless Tarheel squad have deflated this line to under a TD.

Sure, USF won last year, but WVA played its worst offensive game of the year. Slaton fumbled on the USF 1 yardline, the Mountaineers failed to score a TD on 4 possessions inside the 20, and USF had a fumble recovery for a TD in a 24 to 19 win. WVA will score in bunches this year, with a healthy Slaton, Pat White, Owen Schmidt, and the addition of unbelievably gifted Noel Divine. Considering WVA’s ability to stop the run and the Bull’s weak rushing attack, it will be up to sophomore QB Matt Grothe to move the ball through the air to keep up with WVA. Which means more plays and possessions for the most talented offense in the nation. Add it all up and it’s a statement game for West Virginia. They roll 42 to 21.


Hey, who are those two asshats with Tanner?

Arizona -2 vs. Washington State. Basically what I see here are two relatively evenly matched teams, though I have Arizona rated slightly higher. Wazzu has a slightly better offensive unit and Arizona a better defensive unit. Washington State comes off a demoralizing loss at USC and now has to travel all the way down to Arizona. Arizona defeated a better Wazzu team up north last year. I made this game a 6.5 so this is like Christmas in September, catching this number.
Mike Stoops returns 9 defensive starters to a team that held the then #25 WSU Cougars to 11 first downs and 1.9 yards a rush on the road last year. Arizona should move the ball against a horrible WSU defense giving up 275 passing yards a game and 430 total. 31 to 24 Zona

**Colorado State +11 @ TCU. 2 units** The dreams of this TCU football team were dashed 3 weeks ago when the Longhorns took them behind the woodshed outscoring the Frogs 31 to 3 in the second half. Most programs could accept the loss and get on with the season. Not TCU. You see, when your team is made up of players with the collective mentality of a professional wrestler, you don’t take losing well. Hell, you don’t take anything well. The Horned Frogs are done, folks, illustrated by their ugly loss to Air Force on the road, and an ugly win at home vs. SMU. The Mustangs outgained TCU 350 to 250. That’s right, TCU had 250 yards of total offense against the Ponies.

Reporter
TCU kicker after some light calisthenics.

If you’re a Frog backer and that’s not enough to shrink your testicles, down a bottle of Propecia, and send you into a roid rage, then consider you lost your best player and human growth hormone experiment Tommie Blake to an undisclosed medical condition. Amino acids just don’t cut it I suppose.

In Colorado State we get a team that has played a brutal schedule of Colorado, Cal, and UH tough and close. Expect them to hang around with TCU waiting for the Frogs to open up a huge can of quit. Which they will. CSU gets its first win 24 to 21.

Indiana +12 @ Iowa. I’m not sure how Iowa lays double digits to anyone. They were outyardaged by 100 yards @Iowa State and @ Wisconsin, while averaging 230 total yards in both games. Indiana will bend and not break vs. an anemic Iowa offense and hold the Hawkeyes in the twenties.

On offense, Indiana was impressive moving the ball against a good Akron D to the tune of 500 yards, and had 400 yards of offense vs. a talented Illini D. They’ll move the ball against a disinterested Iowa team.

Throw in the sandwich spot for Iowa between a heart-breaking loss at top 10 Wisconsin last week and playing a top 20 Penn State next week, and it’s not hard to envision the Hawkeyes overlooking the Hoosiers. Too many points here, Iowa 24 Indiana 17.

*Big 12 play of the Week. Colorado +23 vs. Oklahoma. 1 unit*This is a value play as I’m pretty sure Colorado would be a 4 or 5 point favorite vs. Tulsa on a neutral field. (Remember, Tulsa was a 23 point dog at home last week). You’ve got OU’s unbelievable start to thank for this inflated number. Are we truly ready to make OU a 30+ point favorite at home vs. an average Big 12 team? Would they be 40 point favorites at home vs. Baylor or ISU? The spot here also favors Colorado since OU has Texas on deck and Bob Stoops is notorious for looking ahead to the Texas game.

Matchup wise, Colorado’s strength is on defense and they’re holding a pretty solid slate of opponents to under 3 yards per carry. It will be a far cry from the high school tackling unit Tulsa rolled out last Friday against the Sooners. The wild card is how many points do we get out of the Buffs offense. The good news is they rolled up 634 yards of offense last week. The bad news is that it was against a bad Miami, OH club. If Buff QB Cody Hawkins can limit mistakes, he can have some success against the Sooner secondary. If not, I’ll lose my first “Big 12 game of the week” pick. I think the Buff’s keep it within the number in this look ahead spot for OU. 38 to 20, ou. F’ Mike Stoops’ levitating ass.


Yippie.

Good luck to everyone.

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12 Responses

  1. mjrod said:

    September 26th, 2007 at 5:48 pm

    I’m putting all this week’s lunch money on the Wildcats! EMAW!!!!

  2. ComeonMINERS said:

    September 26th, 2007 at 6:33 pm

    keep tailing your bets , and you keep making me money. Kind of miss the Ponch photo from last week but I guess seeing stoops do his best imitation of david blaine will have to do. Continue your winning ways. The
    Arizona and Indiana plays look especially good to me.

  3. Daddy said:

    September 27th, 2007 at 4:37 am

    What? No Baylor +17?

  4. Trips Right said:

    September 27th, 2007 at 5:49 am

    mjrod: I like Arizona as well.

    ComeonMiners: thanks, hope we can win some money this year.

    Daddy: I don’t want to be on the wrong end of an aggie circle the wagons game. I think 17 is too many, but I don’t like the situation.

  5. Holdem said:

    September 27th, 2007 at 6:09 am

    Alabama +2 1/2. Am I putting to much trust in Major?

  6. BigSatan said:

    September 27th, 2007 at 7:10 am

    I just dropped everything in my account on WVU to cover. I feel mildly ill.

  7. Trips Right said:

    September 27th, 2007 at 7:12 am

    I looked at this game as well, Holdem. Two things that made me pass are the uncertainty of how Bama responds after an emotional win followed by a heartbreaking home loss. The other reason is they’ll have to bring it vs. an ever improving FSU squad. With FSU’s all-star coaching staff, expect them to get better and better each week.

    Plus they’ve had two weeks to prepare and should be fresh. Bama has had back to back meat grinders and then go on the road. I think there’s more value in other games.

  8. Lazlo Hollyfeld said:

    September 27th, 2007 at 7:31 am

    Big Satan,

    USF is going to whip that ass. And then you can take it out on dfl.

  9. Vasherized said:

    September 27th, 2007 at 7:37 am

    This is the week your Big 12 play of the week win streak comes to an end.

    I see a smooth buttfucking/mudhole stomping/macho man savage body slam for The Hawk and lil’ Hawk.

    OU has had to tap the brakes at 50 every game this year.

  10. Trips Right said:

    September 27th, 2007 at 7:39 am

    USF will be jacked for this game. Until Slaton houses one from 60 yards out.

    BigSatan, what number did you get? Under a TD is a gift. Don’t turn your back on it.

  11. Trips Right said:

    September 27th, 2007 at 7:43 am

    Vasher, maybe. No such thing as a sure bet, but laying 23 points to an average Big12 team on the road the week before you play your biggest rival is madness. I’m assuming you bet the house on Tulsa last week because that was a much better spot for ou.

  12. Vasherized said:

    October 1st, 2007 at 11:23 am

    Trips,

    The streak is alive. Nice call on CU to cover. The fact that OU lost is a nice cherry on top where it not for a purple enema at DKR.

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    I don’t know how ags can talk about ‘their rightful place as a powerhouse’ with a straight face when they haven’t finished in the top 5 in 50 years.

  • ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post Looking @ Mizzou Football 9 minutes ago

    Earl is a little short, but he is a FOOTBALL PLAYER. And a really fast safety. Which is a temporarily in-vogue late top-10 pick. But you’re probably right about the size.

    Houston is under-appreciated, but will be a really solid pro. I hope he goes first day. I still think Tampa

  • ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post Looking @ Mizzou Football 33 minutes ago

    Man, with Fozzy’s injury history I am totally OK with him running out of bounds and not taking unnecessary punishment. But that Earl thing scared the hell out of me. As far as I’m concerned Earl, and probably A. Williams, are the two best propsects for being top 10 NFL picks on our

  • spider commented on the blog post Aggies Offically Achieve Baylor Stature 39 minutes ago

    When you hit horns with Reality, they fight back by playing the race card…

    Usenet called from 1995. They want their soul-sucking tedium back.

  • Orangeblood79 commented on the blog post Thoughts on the Inept Handling of Sam Bradford 39 minutes ago

    I’m still wondering where Ponderos went……..

  • Gene Claude commented on the blog post Looking @ Mizzou Football 41 minutes ago

    I thought Earl was dead on that play, thought he hit his head on the cart. Biggest hit of the game.

  • Huckleberry commented on the blog post FLV Bets: Week 8 49 minutes ago

    Could just be a time available thing if they’re also using manual entry. I’m nowhere near being ready to try to tackle pulling lines from existing sites and automatically updating my site. Recipe for disaster with my low experience level.

    Anyway, the totals and moneylines usually go up on Tuesday between 4-5 p.m. Central

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  • Cincohorn commented on the blog post Aggies Offically Achieve Baylor Stature 51 minutes ago

    Reality is right. The Matthews family from Sugar Land (two words) with their deep aggy roots is the best example i can think of where the Aggy program has reached out and grabbed the heart of inner city America. No way could a Matthews have fit in at all white male academy

  • Huckleberry commented on the blog post FLV Bets: Week 8 52 minutes ago

    I see. The one I’m working on currently requires manual entry of all the lines, but I and any others with “bookie” access would be able to get them from anywhere.

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  • kuoirad commented on the blog post FLV Bets: Week 8 53 minutes ago

    And of course, as soon as I say this, the o/u lines for just about every game are now available. Still no moneylines except for tonight’s Rutgers/Army game, though. Dunno, maybe it *is* a time thing, wherever they get their lines from doesn’t have that information right away.

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  • kuoirad commented on the blog post FLV Bets: Week 8 56 minutes ago

    Well, if you go look, they’ve really only got the spread lines for most CFB games – no moneyline, no over/under. Random WAG is that wherever they’re getting their lines from doesn’t have it.

    I’ve also had problems occasionally where I wanted to bet a game but was told “no lines available”, but there were

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  • ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post Aggies Offically Achieve Baylor Stature 1 hour, 6 minutes ago

    Magnus –

    Wouldn’t you seriously consider taking Fresno State over them?

  • Magnificent Bastard commented on the blog post Aggies Offically Achieve Baylor Stature 1 hour, 6 minutes ago

    Magnus – UTEP has a signature win…

  • Huckleberry commented on the blog post FLV Bets: Week 8 1 hour, 7 minutes ago

    What do you mean better dealt with? What issues are they having?

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  • kuoirad commented on the blog post FLV Bets: Week 8 1 hour, 15 minutes ago

    Huckleberry:

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    I’m thinkin’ we’ll be okay in this one if we can survive the surge.

  • Nordberg commented on the blog post Aggies Offically Achieve Baylor Stature 1 hour, 18 minutes ago

    “The Texas A&M Reality Creed:

    “Doing Less With More Than Any School In The Big 12!” Whooooop!”

    This is true. Being the second-largest school in a state like Texas should alone be good enough for 7 wins a year. They’ve worked really hard over the years to fuck up this badly.

  • Blues commented on the blog post Aggies Offically Achieve Baylor Stature 1 hour, 27 minutes ago

    Thanks again for posting this, Eyes.

    The Texas A&M Reality Creed:

    “Doing Less With More Than Any School In The Big 12!” Whooooop!

  • Hiphopopotamus commented on the blog post Kansas Plays Oklahoma Tomorrow 1 hour, 29 minutes ago

    I wish that weren’t such a big IF.

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  • Vasherized commented on the blog post Aggies Offically Achieve Baylor Stature 1 hour, 31 minutes ago

    At the end of the year we’re going to host a Retard Olympics where tim, 3 MNC In A Row, Shaggy Aggy, Reality, and ipowers enter the BC Octagon.

    HenryJames can officiate.

  • Fritz commented on the blog post Aggies Offically Achieve Baylor Stature 1 hour, 38 minutes ago

    From the URL describing ATM’s financial problems:

    “In retrospect, it is inconceivable to me how this situation was allowed to fester for so many years without proper action being taken,” Elsa Murano, then A&M’s president, wrote in an April memo to system regents reviewing the situation.

    I’m starting to understand why she received those horrible marks from

  • Johnnymac commented on the blog post Aggies Offically Achieve Baylor Stature 1 hour, 39 minutes ago

    The only people buying into that “A&M is UT’s equal” are the Aggie politicians in Austin who memoralize their penis envy into the law and think throwing money at College Station will make it so…. Kind of like your athletics argument, Reality.

  • Bob in Houston commented on the blog post Aggies Offically Achieve Baylor Stature 1 hour, 41 minutes ago

    OK, Reality:

    Every year since the Ags won the Big 12 CG, Texas has won more football games. Over the 10 years, Texas has averaged four more wins (41 more victories). This year will make the deficit much worse.

    How long do the Ags get to bring things up to speed, football-wise?

  • kuoirad commented on the blog post Aggies Offically Achieve Baylor Stature 1 hour, 42 minutes ago

    With the comments from the aggy, this continues to sound *alot* what I”m used to hearing out of KSUck fans. It’s not a perfect analogy, KU != UT, but it all sounds the same…

  • ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post Looking @ Mizzou Football 1 hour, 51 minutes ago

    Cincohorn –

    It gets confusing. You CAN throw the ball over 30 yards in the air. But it cannot go more than 5 yards down the field. It’s better if you wait and make that throw after taking a 7 step drop and giving your receiver time to really settle into his out

  • Nordberg commented on the blog post Thoughts on the Inept Handling of Sam Bradford 1 hour, 51 minutes ago

    Finkel is Einhorn!

  • Nordberg commented on the blog post Aggies Offically Achieve Baylor Stature 1 hour, 53 minutes ago

    “A&M is ranked higher academically through independent sources than everyone else in the Big XII except texas.”

    How can this be? You’re our equal, remember?

    You’re also our equal in athletics, despite the fact that in football we win 10 games and win bowl games every year, and we’re always in the top five, and we went

  • ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post Aggies Offically Achieve Baylor Stature 1 hour, 55 minutes ago

    BTW — those are some examples of the “structural” absurdities built into the foundation of your agricultural and mechanical juggernaut.

    in fairness, y’all make great veterinarians.

  • ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post Aggies Offically Achieve Baylor Stature 1 hour, 58 minutes ago

    Oh Reality,

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  • Nordberg commented on the blog post Aggies Offically Achieve Baylor Stature 2 hours, 4 minutes ago

    I’m going to start ignoring every post made by one of our “visitors” here. What fucking planet do some of you come from? I mean,

    “To which you say, but “They used to be bad” which proves nothing about the future of A&M, one of the top revenue football programs in the Big XII and