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Posted by Scipio Tex on September 30th, 2009 under Football
Three weeks ago, I recommended some crucial waiver wire pick-ups that were available in most Yahoo leagues. If you followed my advice, you’re in a good place right now. Let’s revisit my original picks and discuss some other prospects going forward…
Remember, these were waiver wire recs - free money - so spare me your “62 yards and a TD isn’t that great” takes.
RB
Blew this position out of the water. If you grabbed some of these guys, you’re stocked with quality depth, several starters, and you’ve got big upsides waiting on injury and phase outs. Or you got a useful three week hook-up that you can now discard.
LeSean McCoy - Westbrook predictably goes out, McCoy gets the start, racks up 100+ yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Gee, who could have guessed? As bye weeks roll in, foolish owners will cut McCoy when Westbrook has two healthy games. Grab him. Westbrook will get banged up again and you’ll get top level production without having paid a dime. He’s still available in a lot of leagues.
Leon Washington - He’s now getting equal carries to Thomas Jones and Ryan has a hard-on for him. Good depth guy and a quality situational play. He’s a no cost producer with an upside. Do you like him on turf against New Orleans? I do.
Ray Rice - I called him undervalued and he still is. I love his 7-12 points per week consistency. Currently outscoring Michael Turner, tied with Steven Jackson. McGahee vultures his goalline ops, but whatcha gonna do? He’ll still amass 1500+ yards from scrimmage and 8-9 TDs. Not shabby for a guy available in Round 12.
Donald Brown - He’s splitting time with Addai now after two consecutive great games. Stick with him and hang tight.
Fred Jackson - Meet the 6th highest scoring back in fantasy football going into Week 4. Lynch is now back and that means a workload split. If you can trade Jackson for inflated value, do so. If not, keep him around - Lynch could go down. Even if he doesn’t, he’s a solid situational flex play.
Cadillac Williams - Great early production. Now Tampa Bay is a ghost ship of an organization teetering on the reef. Run away soon.
Correll Buckhalter - Another nice situational pick up. 270 yards from scrimmage in 3 games isn’t bad for a player that cost you nothing. As Knowshon gets healthier, expect a an unfavorable 75-25 split.
WRs
I didn’t see much value here. I certainly didn’t anticipate Mario Manningham doing what he did. Curious to see how that holds when Hixon and Nicks return from injury. There wasn’t much before the year that screamed out to me and Chris Henry was my only rec.
Chris Henry - Apparently has a quad problem. Oh well, that’s the beauty of the wire. Cut his ass - he cost you nothing. Andre Caldwell has taken his looks, but keep an eye on him - when Henry decides he wants to/can play, he can be good.
I mentioned these two below as keep your eye on types.
Hakeem Nicks - Injured all year. Now totally eclipsed by Mario Manningham, Steve Smith. Ignore him until he shows something. He’s healthy this week, I believe.
Josh Morgan - SF just doesn’t focus on their WRs.
TE
Vernon Davis - He’s the #3 TE in the NFL in fantasy production. Please ignore Vasherized when discussing the TE position.
Jermicheal Finley - I still think he has a decent upside. Check him out against Minnesota Monday night and make a determination. Certainly don’t hold him if Vernon Davis or Celek are available to you.
QB
I was correct in describing the waiver wire availables as situational plays. Jake Delhomme has to be betting on games. Flacco is the exception. He has been fantastic and a top 10 QB. He doesn’t have a ton of weapons to work with, but he throws strikes and the Raven running game sets him up nicely. I have Joe and Schaub as my QBs and I feel pretty damn good about that given that I drafted Schaub around Round 6-7 and grabbed Joey off of waivers.
David Garrard and Kyle Orton are probably your best bye week/injury fillers. Just play the matchup.
Looking ahead:
RB
Glen Coffee - Coffee is for closers for the next 3-4 weeks. SF gets favorable matchups (Rams at home for God’s sake) and Coffee is guaranteed 20 carries. He’s not that dynamic, but even if he gains 70 yards, there’s a strong probability of a TD. Get your use out of him and then ditch him if/when appropriate.
Tashard Choice - I like him for as long as Felix Jones is out. Even splitting carries with Barber, he’s guaranteed 15-18 touches in the NFL’s best running game. Lay up.
Ricky Williams - He’s scoring points and he’s been looking better than Ronnie Brown. Definitely a good bye week fix and a possible flex play.
WR
Lots of choices here, most half owned. You just need to work the wire on your league and see who is available. Mike Sims-Walker is Jacksonville’s #1 WR now and well worth grabbing. Nate Burleson has eclipsed TJ Hoosh in Seattle and he’s still available in 40% of yahoo leagues (amazingly). Pierre Garcon has big play upside, but doesn’t get a lot of targets. So be mindful that you may be in for feast and famine. If you’re looking for a Hail Mary in deep 14 team leagues or 3 WR starter 12 man leagues, look at Kenny Britt or Malcolm Floyd. They’re big boys that can make a play downfield or in the red zone for you.
TE
Brent Celek - Go get this guy post haste. A lot of people still haven’t noticed him and the Eagles are on bye. His output isn’t going away so long as the Eagles throw it 40 per.
DEF
The NFL has five deeply dysfunctional offenses. Find a top half defense facing the Rams, Browns, Bucs, Raiders, Chiefs and you’ll be just fine and you’ll score just as many points over the course of the year as that Minnesota/Pittsburgh defense someone drafted in the 6th round. This week I like San Francisco at home against St Louis and Cincy @ Cleveland.
Let’s chat - happy to discuss trades, pick ups, debate starters for Week 4.
burntorangenation said:
September 30th, 2009 at 9:22 pm
Great column. Was glad to see Sims-Walker available on my wire.
scagnetti said:
September 30th, 2009 at 10:36 pm
i swear you play in my league.
TaylorTRoom said:
October 1st, 2009 at 4:44 am
Kyle Orton- undervalued early this season because people don’t realize he left a poor offensive system in Chicago, and joined one of the best QB coaches in Denver (Josh McDaniel).
ctex80 said:
October 1st, 2009 at 6:25 am
Question for you, Scip…
Here are my running backs:
Adrian Peterson
Ryan Grant
Cedric Benson
Ray Rice
Chester Taylor
But my receiver situation is dire this week (still have Roddy White (BYE), Anquan Boldin (BYE), Devin Hester) as Anthony Gonzalez and Laurent Robinson both screwed me.
Which back would you trade to pickup a WR? And is there any way in hell this team (with Phillip Rivers at QB) doesn’t win the title?
Ag_in_TX said:
October 1st, 2009 at 7:09 am
Some advice needed - I am in a 12 team league where we start one QB. I have Kurt Warner (bye this week), Jake Delhomme (bye this week) and Byron Leftwich (who I drafted just for this week). Damn - he up and gets demoted to third string.
So, I gotta pick up a QB. Unfortunatley, I am in 1st place in my league and have last free agent pick-up. Derek Anderson got picked up already. My choices should be from amongst:
Wallace, Seneca SEA
Bulger, Marc STL
Russell, JaMarcus OAK
Boller, Kyle STL
Hasselback is day to day in Seattle - but Boller is sure to start this weekend. Should I jump on Boller? JaMarcus Russell sucks.
Scipio Tex said:
October 1st, 2009 at 7:19 am
scagnetti:
My advice is that you trade me your best player for someone marginal.
Taylor:
We’ll see what happens with ‘ol Kyle down the stretch. I agree that he has value situationally for sure.
ctex:
I think you’ll have to work hard not to win your league. I’d drop Gonzalez and shop the waiver wire at WR. Also, how is your league structured - 3 WR? 2 WR/1 Flex? That would influence my desire to shop Ryan Grant. You might be able to get by this week with a waiver pick and keep the RB depth.
Ag_in_Tx:
Ditch Leftwich and Delhomme both, obviously. I’d actually probably pick up Seneca Wallace instead of Boller. I don’t like St Louis on the road against SF without Laurent Robinson. Are you sure David Garrard/Kyle Orton/Shaun Hill is not available?
bighornfan32 said:
October 1st, 2009 at 7:26 am
Not one of those guys is available in my league.
Ag_in_TX said:
October 1st, 2009 at 7:29 am
None of those guys are available in my league either. Don’t you think Boller has more potential to be starter for a while?
Scipio Tex said:
October 1st, 2009 at 7:31 am
Ag:
Why would you care? He’s a shitty, marginal starter. You’re just looking for a one week solution before you plug Warner back in.
Vasherized said:
October 1st, 2009 at 7:31 am
ctex80,
That is a scary lineup at RB. I would trade Grant and keep Peterson/Benson as your workhorses with Taylor as a handcuff and Rice for good matchups. Last year I had Peterson and Taylor and occasionally started both because of Taylor’s receiving prowess. This isn’t normally recommended but it works in Minny.
Scip’s Scorecard:
RB — A+. Truly prescient, slightly creepy. GM potential?
WR — D. Galaxies away from usefulness. Not giving up on Nicks but Steve Smith is the man right now. I think Manningham fades.
TE — B+. The timing of this column is more than coincidental given Vernon Davis’ 2 TD performance last week, given he had 2 TDs all last year. Nice call. Finley is more productive for Twitter than he is for the Packers at this point. Give Celek a different last name and he’s a starter on most rosters. Curse of the Polish.
Surprises on my work squad have been Schaub, Harvin, and Benson. Disappointments have been Housh, Roddy White, and Michael Turner given the level of performance you’d expect from these picks. It’s still early though.
I picked up Fred Taylor when Felix Jones went down, complementing my impressive arsenal of backup RBs (Chester Taylor and Beanie Wells). Also nabbed Burleson off the waiver wire. Jets D has been money, as expected under Rex Ryan. Cooley is the TE Scipio wishes he always had.
Schaub was hanging around late in my league so I picked him up even though I already had Rodgers. I need to trade one of them for a stud RB or WR and have ground to make up after losing the last two weeks by a combined 5 points. Usually those heartbreaks come later in my season.
How has everyone else fared through week 3? Who do you think breaks out after a slow start?
Scipio Tex said:
October 1st, 2009 at 7:32 am
bighorn:
You play in a rational league then. Keep your eyes on the waiver wire though - bye weeks will cause some people to try to slip a couple of these guys through the cracks.
ctex80 said:
October 1st, 2009 at 7:42 am
Scip,
We start 2 RB’s, 2 WR’s, and a WR/TE. I already dropped Gonzalez. His replacement was Robinson (fuck me).
I’m torn because Celek is available, but does nothing for me when I need him most (this week). All of the WR’s you mentioned are gone from the wire.
I’ve got waiver claims pending for T.O. (slim chance) and Justin Gage (slightly less slim). If I get one of those guys, I’ll be fine. If not, I think Vasherized may be onto something. After watching Benson against Pittsburgh, I’m finally convinced.
ctex80 said:
October 1st, 2009 at 7:55 am
Vasher,
I’m 3-0 right now. Won week 1 on Rivers’ last completion that put him over 350 yards. NEEDED Jamarcus Russell to hit that 57 yard TD on 4th and a mile to give Rivers a chance. Who says fantasy is luck? Sucked this week but my opponent had the worst team in the league.
Roddy White is who I’d love to see pick it up. I know Tony Gonzalez is going to steal some targets, but shouldn’t he also open up some coverage for White? Kicking myself for listening to the mags and taking him instead of Vincent Jackson.
I also have Jets D, love love love them. Revis is a beast.
As to your QB situation, it’s only a matter of time before Schaub or Andre Johnson gets hurt. I’d sell high on Schaub.
Scipio Tex said:
October 1st, 2009 at 8:06 am
ctex80 -
I don’t know who you’re starting at TE, but Celek is worth making room for.
Grant would be the guy to shop for sure.
Vasherized:
Given that I recommended one WR, my report card there is an INC - Brian Davis told me I’ll be fine.
The obvious breakout candidate - who is available in many leagues - is Royal from Denver. He’s done absolutely nothing so far and owners are cutting him in frustration. I think his game against Dallas will tell me what I need to know.
I hope both Roddy White and Greg Jennings get it together.
huge said:
October 1st, 2009 at 9:25 am
bye week is killing me, mostly due to my stupid 2QB league experiment.
i’m starting josh johnson this week. he better have 50 yards rushing on busted plays. how’s that for confidence
Scipio Tex said:
October 1st, 2009 at 9:42 am
Josh Johnson - brutal.
Ag_in_TX said:
October 1st, 2009 at 10:08 am
Startintg Josh Johnson is the FFL moral equivilent of screwing on the floor of a restroom at JerryWorld - it’s still doin’ it, but dayum…..
The Bobs said:
October 1st, 2009 at 10:13 am
so I’m guessing you’re gonna be there for the Hogs????
Ag_in_TX said:
October 1st, 2009 at 10:16 am
Screwing on the bathroom floor? No sir!
And couldn’t afford the parking at TTR’s house either, so I’ll watch on TV.
Gristle McThornbody said:
October 1st, 2009 at 12:25 pm
Scip,
you can choose only one for this week:
T Owens
E Bennett
Flip a coin?
Scipio Tex said:
October 1st, 2009 at 1:20 pm
Gristle:
Jeeezus. Gotta love the Detroit match-up for Bennett, but he’s Chicago’s de facto #3 with Knox and Hester. TO is always a red zone scoring threat and the Bills won’t be able to run it against Miami effectively. Hmmmm….
Anyone else have a thought here? I’m a bit torn.
ctex80 said:
October 1st, 2009 at 2:02 pm
I’d go TO. He’s gonna score eventually. Getting embarrassed may be just the motivation he needs, and you know he’ll be in Trent Edwards’ ear all week. I anticipate a concerted effort to get him the ball this week.
Ag_in_TX said:
October 1st, 2009 at 2:04 pm
I’d go with TO - you know he’s gonna get his eventually.
Gristle McThornbody said:
October 1st, 2009 at 2:38 pm
Thanks to all.
Confused and Dazed said:
October 1st, 2009 at 2:39 pm
I have both Tony Romo and Jay Cutler on my team. I’m inclined to go with Cutler against Detroit, who had a skightly hotter hand than Homo last week and seems to be coming around. The Bears have no running attack, but also have no discernible offensive game plan, as per usual. Da Bears are also playing a somehat weaker opponent than Da ‘Boys . Besides, Homo’s such a goofy bastard you never know what he’s gonna do, but I would appreciate some advice from you afficianados.
Vasherized said:
October 1st, 2009 at 2:51 pm
Cutler, imo.
mojave_reject said:
October 1st, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Calvin Johnson/Kevin Walter/Earl Bennet/Johnny Knox in a 3WR format. Who sits?
Scipio Tex said:
October 1st, 2009 at 3:43 pm
c&d: Cutler, easy choice. You knew it before you asked. You just wanted a rubber stamp.
mojave: Calvin and Kevin are must starts. From there, it’s really about your gut and risk tolerance. Earl is the most likely to get 60 yards. Knox is the most likely to catch a 50 yard TD.
joehorn said:
October 1st, 2009 at 5:54 pm
Let me know what you guys think. I’m in a PPR league and can start 2 RB’s, no flex position. i have Slaton, Coffee, Julius Jones and Marshawn Lynch which two do I pick?
3 wide outs out of Driver, Cotchery, Sims-Walker and Marshall. Is Marshall still the odd man out in this one?
Thanks for the input.
Scipio Tex said:
October 1st, 2009 at 6:37 pm
PPR is gay, but…
Slaton, Coffee.
WR - You’re good with any three of those four. I like Sims-Walker vs. Tennessee so don’t sit him even though he’s the lesser name/
CurrentLonghornStudent said:
October 1st, 2009 at 11:33 pm
Question: Correll Buckhalter or Mike Bell? Who has the better upside down the road?
Hopefully LT has a good year. Pittsburgh is NOT the way to start that though. I ran into a firewall on draft day and had my first five autopicked. Michael Turner, LT, Brandon Jacobs, Greg Jennings, and Anquan Boldin.
The rest of my first FF draft follows: Roy Williams (influenced by sentiment), Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans (questionable), Leftwich (oops), Orton (maybe oops), Mike Bell, Ben Watson, Buckhalter, Mark Sanchez, Brandon Stokely (oops), Sims-Walker, Marcedes Lewis (kinda oops), Chansi Stuckey, Kelley Washington, Denver D, Rian Lindell, New England D.
I’ve dropped Stokely, Lewis, Leftwich, and Buckhalter (oops) to pick up Tashard Choice, Kevin Kolb, Vernon Davis (nice), and Jacoby Jones (eh). I probably should have dropped Bell to pick up Choice.
League plays 2QB, 5WR, 4RB, TE, WR/TE, K, Def; 10 teams total. My scheduling is solid (except at K), but I don’t know enough to see where my real weaknesses are.