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Posted by Vasherized on October 1st, 2009 under Football
Trips Right is once again lampooned in an exotic destination without Internet access. This week’s locale is West Virginia, where he is on set with Jesco White filming a sequel to the cult classic movie The Dancing Outlaw. (Imagine chooky in tap dancing shoes).
This week’s picks:
Arkansas -1 vs. A&M. Two units.
The Aggies come into this interconference tilt with a satisfying 3-0 start. They’ll face a talented but young Arkansas club looking for a signature win after a disappointing loss to Georgia and a smooth buttfucking by the fighting Nick Sabans. Each side has playmakers galore on offense to go along with a suspect defense. But I like the Arkansas defense a tad better than an untested Aggie stop unit who gave up 340 yards passing to the Aggies of Utah State. The Razorbacks need this one, and the Aggies are probably thinking about winning a national championship. No word if the teams will be forced to provide their own cage dancers at Jerry’s World. On that front, I have to words for Bill Byrne. Out source. 35 to 24 Pigs.
East carolina -2.5 vs Marshall. Two Units.
This is a bet of strength on strength. And it appears as if the Pirates better is better than Marshall’s better. Darius Marshall, Marshall’s horse, has torn up the horrid rush defenses of Bowling Green and Memphis. His 17 carry 109 yard game against VA Tech is nice on it’s face, but if you take away a 61 yard rush on a busted assignment, Darius averaged about 3 yards a carry. East Carolina’s rush defense is in the ballpark with the Hokies allowing a paltry 3.39 yards per carry to a schedule that includes North Carolina and West Virginia. I like the Pirates to force Marshall to be something they aren’t…a passing club. Skip Holts’ group spittles their way to a solid 24 to 17 win.
Nevada -2 vs UNLV. two units
This is an X’s and O’s bet stemming from UNLV’s inability to stop read option teams, running quarterbacks, and running teams in general. With Engleberg Humperdink at QB, I fully expect the Wolfpack to move the ball at will on a porous Rebel front. The ‘Pack’s struggles against passing squads are well chronicled, but the superior passing competition they’ve faced this year in the form of Mizzou and Notre Dame, coupled with homefield should mitigate this weakness. Also, a short number doesn’t hurt when you have a home team that will be able to run and stop the run. ‘Pack wins by a TD. 41 to 34.
Colorado State -3 @ Idaho. 1 unit
Colorado State has given up an average of 3.4 yards per carry against a schedule that includes Colorado, Nevada and BYU. Idaho has rushed it for just 4.3 yards per carry against a schedule of defenses like
NMSU, NIU, and SDSU. CSU is a step up in class defensively for Idaho. On the other side of the ball, Colorado State’s oline should be able to overpower the smallish Vandal front. 28 to 20 CSU.
Northwestern/Purdue under 59.5. 1 unit
Two short passing, ball control big 10 teams playing in an 11 am. game? What’s not to like? No gamebreakers and bend but don’t break defenses to keep the clock moving. It’ll take two defensive TD’s or special teams TD’s to push the number over. I’m betting against that. 28 to 21 Purdue.
Miami +7 vs. OU. 1 unit
The only legitimate defense the Sooners have faced held them to 13 points, 15 first downs, 3.8 yards per carry, 147 yards passing, and knocked out Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford. The other two defenses the Sooners have faced couldn’t fog a mirror and it’s the primary cause of Oklahoma fool’s gold.
Defensively, the Sooners are nasty, so this ballgame rates to be a low scoring affair which makes getting a TD huge. I like the ‘Canes to replicate the defensive success the Cougars enjoyed against a porous and inexperienced Oline playing their first road game of the season. Harris makes just enough plays to move the chains for Miami. The U 21 OU 17. (I also like the under 49 here a bunch. So I’ll post it.)
OU at Miami. Under 49. 1 unit.
Neither team can score. And that helps with unders and shit.
Good luck on your action.
Now back to your regularly scheduled Vasherized programming.
Trips has apparently been snorting chalk with the hillbillies but he’ll do anything for a nice line.
One stat to keep in mind with the CSU pick — the state of Idaho is a clean 8-0 ATS.
Huckleberry said:
October 1st, 2009 at 5:30 pm
Trips is fading my computer system on 5 of the 6. That sonofabitch.
But none of the 5 (or 6 actually) are star plays from the computer output.
KEVIN said:
October 1st, 2009 at 5:39 pm
South Florida -6 1/2 at Syracuse feels good to me. (Like your mom).
Groundhogday said:
October 1st, 2009 at 6:14 pm
FSU -4
USC -5
Clemson -13
tOSU -17
Ark -1
Penn St. -7
The South Florida line looks interesting as well.
Redfish said:
October 1st, 2009 at 6:59 pm
Really going to challenge the Vegas oddsmakers on their own turf with that Nevada/UNLV pick? Your ego’s writing checks your body can’t cash, son.
magnusbleuveigner said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 6:08 am
No UH love? I think they’re -14 at UTEP. Is that pyrite? Maybe a let down between Tech and Miss St.. It appears to be an easy cover to me.
lazer2280 said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 6:27 am
As the current bmf in my pick em’ pool, I am going to call Michigan as my lock of the week. Also, am I the only person who likes ATM to cover and beat Arky? I don’t think ATM is as good as their record or their stats, but I do like them to outscore Arky in a close one.
Huckleberry said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 6:35 am
lazer - My computer system agrees with you on the A&M game.
magnus - The system likes Houston even at -16.5 instead of the 14.5 it opened at. But there are a LOT of red flags on that game like you mentioned.
Travis said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 6:47 am
I can’t help but feel like that is a trap game for houston, not that utep will beat them, I just think it will be tougher than everyone thinks, houston is bound for a letdown. I like Georgia at -3, think LSU is almost as overrated at #4 as ole miss was. Another one is Central michigan -8 , they should be able to take care of buffalo.
Travis said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 6:50 am
Huck- what does your computer think about the USC -CAL…. before last week I thought cal was a lock, can’t help but feel like they can still win this one at home.
Huckleberry said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 6:56 am
You can get the full report from the link in my first comment above. The system is taking Southern Cal and giving 4-1/2 points but there is a low confidence associated with that pick.
Travis said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 7:05 am
Thanks man
chitwood said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 8:37 am
maybe I’m just being a nit, but it seems that Trips is lampooned on this board, yet he is marooned in an exotic destination.
dick said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 8:46 am
he is in El Paso for the UH game, look for him up on the hill with his wife. Ignore the positioning of his wife’s hand, there’s nothing to see there.
I like Wazzu getting 35 against Oregon, that’s a letdown spot for Oregon and Wazzu might be slightly better than people think.
Huck, is this report generator taking over the matchup analyzer you came out with earlier this week? Have you explained this report generator everywhere.
Huckleberry said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 8:57 am
They’re both still valid. The pick report incorporates confidence formulas based on historical pick performance and stage of the season. The matchup analyzer assumes full information (as though it’s the end of the season and we have as much information as we can expect on each team).
Trips Right said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:18 am
Next week, Huck combines his science with my favor with the gambling gods to take over the wagering universe. If we don’t hit 60% over the course of the year we’re going to dress Henry James in a clown costume and drop him off at various ZETA quinceaneras.
magnusbleuveigner said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:29 am
Enrique Jaime, payaso por hire.
Henry, that’s a dangerous gig, you might want to give them all the helpful input you can.
HenryJames said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:41 am
If you two assholes can’t hit 60%, I’ll find someone who can.
So drop me off at the ZBT house.
Sailor Ripley said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 11:26 am
L’chaim!
'01 ag said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 12:10 pm
Best I can tell there is no safe bet in Jerry’s Texarkana bowl…not to mention a two units bet.
'01 ag said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 12:15 pm
that photo (and the two units on the hogs) reminded me of this:
Texas -33.5 at Wyoming. 3 units.
I rarely bet the Horns, and I rarely make the three unit diamond bet, but this strikes me as a really good spot for the heavy favorite.
Guess you couldn’t see the uncalled fake punt coming, but still have to wonder about laying that many points 1200 miles from Austin.
magnusbleuveigner said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Sailor, wasn’t it you that told someone slainte like a week ago? How many tongues can you “toast” in?
Trips Right said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 1:48 pm
I had forgotten the aggies are going to win every game.
Trips Right said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 2:54 pm
You should see Sailor speak in tongues. It really freaks out the vegans.
dick said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 5:08 pm
What on earth does the UT/Wyo have to do with pig/aggy game?
Plus trips capped that game correctly as you demonstrated. We should have covered by a TD even with underperforming for an entire half.
I worry that arky doesn’t have a sense of urgency this season. They won’t be going to a bowl game this year no matter what.
'01 ag said:
October 2nd, 2009 at 6:15 pm
“What on earth does the UT/Wyo have to do with pig/aggy game?”
Sometimes the best play is no play. Both the WY game and aTm v AK fall into that category. IMO.
vibe said:
October 3rd, 2009 at 12:42 am
There is this cool website i just found called freedom bets.
They give you a $50 account credit and you try to make it to $500. The challenge is you can only win $20 at a time. You can NEVER lose money. When you crap out, you get a $50 account again. They make money thru advertising and the fact that very few people will be able to reach $500 by making bets in those small increments.
Still, I think it’s fun. If you like to gamble and try your skill, it’s a foolproof way to test your fb knowledge. Try it out.
http://www.FreedomBets.com/r/vibe
p.s. there is a referral program, and if you use the link provided and win, I will get $50 sent to me. You will still get your full winnings though—they don’t take the bonus money out of your winnings. If you don’t want to use my referral, just knock off the /vibe from the link given above. Hook’em and have fun.
dick said:
October 3rd, 2009 at 8:37 am
Nevada up to 6.5 now. Wish I would have taken it at less than 3.
ND is down to 11.5, take the Irish. Public all over the underdog Huskies, they still remember the USC win.
Over 54 on Mich/MSU, Michigan’s good O and bad D should dictate this game. I’m not touching the line with the 7 point line movement.
USC -4, they aren’t playing an unranked team today. They show up in prime time games that people think they have a chance to lose.
Today is a good day to look at teams going on the road for the first time today. Wisconsin, Michigan, Auburn are probably good teams to bet against. I’m not sure if the aggies fall under that category bc its a neutral game but not only are they playing their first team ranked in the top 100 in the country but they are also playing their first game away from Kyle.
'01 ag said:
October 3rd, 2009 at 8:59 am
Agreed. If I had to bet it, then I’d take hogs. But don’t know how aTm will react to road and tv coverage. Could thrive. Could fail. Again, if I was forced to bet, then I’d bet fail.