Here are the probabilities that Texas beats their remaining opponents:

Kansas State: 39.6%

Baylor: 37.7%

Texas Tech: 53.9%

West Virginia: 42.8%

Kansas: 91.1%

TCU: 45.3%

Here are the probabilities that Texas wins at least n more games:

1 game: 99.5%

2 games: 92.6%

3 games: 69.8% (bowl eligible)

4 games: 36.2%

5 games: 10.9%

6 games: 1.4%

The future looks a little brighter for Texas after this past weekend's games. 6-6 (32.6%) remains the most likely final record, but 7-5 (25.2%) is once again the second most likely outcome. The next two games figure to be the toughest remaining on the schedule. I don't put much stock in betting lines this early in the week, but the consensus point spread of -3.5 for K State would indicate about a 40% probability of Texas winning. If the 'Horns can pull off the upset, the back half of the season should start to look pretty favorable.

Here's a plot of the likelihood of Texas's final record. And, here's an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated.