Back in February, BillC posted S&P+ projections for every team. I took a look at teams at the mid season point to see how their current S&P+ margin rating compares. Here are a few observations on the 50 highest ranked teams plus a few more were most relevant to me (66 total):
Top 10 overachievers: 1) Colorado (+16.1 points higher margin than projection), 2) Michigan (+15.1), 3) Ohio State, 4) Louisville, 5) Houston, 6)Wisconsin, 7) WMU, 8) Washington, 9) Auburn, 10) Va Tech
- Top 10 S&P+ defenses include UM #1, tOSU 7, Wisc 5, UW 8, Aub 10, VT 6. (UH #19 fwiw)
- A&M is #12 (+5) w/ the #25 defense
Hitting Par: 33) Baylor (dead on projection) with #14 Defense
Fire-able *Offense*: 49) LSU (-4.5 below projection) with a S&P+ current margin rating of 19.9 (7th best) and #9 defense
- Also tied at 49 (-4.5): OU w/ #56 defense
- Interestingly close, Florida State at 48 (-4.3) w/ #50 defense
A who's who of underachievers: 66) Georgia (-16.8), 65) Michigan State, 64) Notre Dame, 63) Mississippi State, 62) Stanford, 61) UCLA, 59t) Arkansas, 59t) South Carolina, 58) Syracuse, 57) Oregon
- Def S&P+ rankings are underwhelming: UGA 38, MSU 59, ND 39, MissSt 45, Ark 62, SCar 35, Syr 100, UO 109
Texas is #39 (1.7 margin points below projected S&P+): for reference, a top 40 defense would lift us into the top 10 of overachievers.
Have you hugged your DC lately?
28) Clemson (+1.1) with #2 Defense (11.2 DefS&P+ rating, second to Michigan, ahead of Bama). If Venables gets a HC gig, it will be interesting to see how well Dabo fares.
I look forward to your comments and takeaways...
Gory details:
| Preseason Rank | Team | Recruiting impact | Returning production | Weighted 5-year | Proj S&P+ | Current S&P+ | S&P+ Over/Under | O/U Rank |
| 1 | Alabama | 1 | 2 | 1 | 26.8 | 28.8 | 2 | 25 |
| 2 | LSU | 8 | 3 | 2 | 24.4 | 19.9 | -4.5 | 49 |
| 3 | Clemson | 6 | 1 | 13 | 24.2 | 25.3 | 1.1 | 28 |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 16 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 17.5 | -4.5 | 49 |
| 5 | Florida State | 3 | 8 | 7 | 19.6 | 15.3 | -4.3 | 48 |
| 6 | Michigan | 14 | 5 | 17 | 19.3 | 34.4 | 15.1 | 2 |
| 7 | Ole Miss | 15 | 7 | 20 | 18.9 | 17.9 | -1 | 37 |
| 8 | USC | 2 | 14 | 14 | 17.3 | 12.5 | -4.8 | 51 |
| 9 | Tennessee | 9 | 9 | 26 | 17 | 9.7 | -7.3 | 56 |
| 10 | Washington | 30 | 6 | 39 | 17 | 24.7 | 7.7 | 8 |
| 11 | Notre Dame | 10 | 15 | 9 | 16.7 | 4.4 | -12.3 | 64 |
| 12 | UCLA | 11 | 12 | 22 | 16.5 | 6.9 | -9.6 | 61 |
| 13 | Baylor | 27 | 11 | 10 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 0 | 33 |
| 14 | Ohio State | 5 | 18 | 3 | 16.4 | 27 | 10.6 | 3 |
| 15 | Georgia | 7 | 16 | 8 | 16.2 | -0.6 | -16.8 | 66 |
| 16 | Stanford | 24 | 17 | 6 | 15.3 | 4.4 | -10.9 | 62 |
| 17 | Arkansas | 25 | 13 | 21 | 15.2 | 6.5 | -8.7 | 59 |
| 18 | Oregon | 19 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 7.2 | -7.8 | 57 |
| 19 | Florida | 20 | 19 | 18 | 14.5 | 18.9 | 4.4 | 16 |
| 20 | Louisville | 39 | 10 | 36 | 14.4 | 24.7 | 10.3 | 4 |
| 21 | Miss. State | 23 | 20 | 24 | 13.6 | 2.3 | -11.3 | 63 |
| 22 | Michigan State | 18 | 30 | 12 | 13.5 | -1.8 | -15.3 | 65 |
| 23 | Okla. State | 40 | 21 | 16 | 12.6 | 9.3 | -3.3 | 45 |
| 24 | Auburn | 4 | 33 | 23 | 12.5 | 19.2 | 6.7 | 9 |
| 25 | Texas A&M | 13 | 40 | 11 | 12.5 | 17.5 | 5 | 12 |
| 26 | Nebraska | 29 | 28 | 32 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 1.8 | 27 |
| 27 | North Carolina | 26 | 25 | 42 | 11.3 | 8.8 | -2.5 | 43 |
| 28 | Penn State | 17 | 39 | 29 | 11.3 | 13.8 | 2.5 | 22 |
| 29 | Pittsburgh | 35 | 29 | 43 | 10.3 | 7.4 | -2.9 | 44 |
| 30 | Miami | 21 | 46 | 37 | 10 | 14.6 | 4.6 | 15 |
| 31 | TCU | 31 | 49 | 25 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 0.8 | 30 |
| 32 | Virginia Tech | 32 | 44 | 33 | 9.3 | 14.7 | 5.4 | 10 |
| 33 | West Virginia | 42 | 31 | 47 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 3 | 20 |
| 34 | Texas | 12 | 59 | 34 | 9.2 | 7.5 | -1.7 | 39 |
| 35 | BYU | 66 | 27 | 35 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 0.7 | 31 |
| 36 | Boise State | 65 | 38 | 19 | 8.3 | 13 | 4.7 | 14 |
| 37 | Wisconsin | 33 | 60 | 15 | 8.3 | 17 | 8.7 | 6 |
| 38 | Iowa | 49 | 32 | 48 | 8.1 | 7.8 | -0.3 | 34 |
| 39 | Utah | 43 | 43 | 44 | 7.8 | 6 | -1.8 | 41 |
| 40 | NC State | 45 | 37 | 63 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 3.8 | 17 |
| 41 | South Florida | 54 | 26 | 79 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 19 |
| 42 | Minnesota | 53 | 34 | 55 | 7 | 9.1 | 2.1 | 24 |
| 43 | Texas Tech | 41 | 50 | 52 | 6.5 | 4.8 | -1.7 | 40 |
| 44 | Syracuse | 59 | 42 | 60 | 5.7 | -2.5 | -8.2 | 58 |
| 45 | WKU | 92 | 22 | 64 | 5.6 | 3.8 | -1.8 | 41 |
| 46 | Northwestern | 46 | 58 | 61 | 5.1 | 1.8 | -3.3 | 46 |
| 47 | Missouri | 34 | 77 | 27 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 0.6 | 32 |
| 48 | WSU | 56 | 47 | 81 | 5 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 26 |
| 49 | California | 38 | 64 | 51 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 29 |
| 50 | Boston College | 64 | 51 | 58 | 4.7 | -0.2 | -4.9 | 52 |
| 51 | Duke | 37 | 63 | 66 | 4.6 | -1.7 | -6.3 | 55 |
| 53 | Houston | 61 | 56 | 50 | 4.4 | 13.9 | 9.5 | 5 |
| 54 | Georgia Tech | 48 | 70 | 38 | 4.4 | 4 | -0.4 | 35 |
| 55 | SDSU | 79 | 41 | 62 | 4 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 11 |
| 56 | Indiana | 55 | 57 | 75 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 21 |
| 57 | Arizona State | 22 | 89 | 30 | 3.7 | -1.5 | -5.2 | 53 |
| 58 | Toledo | 87 | 52 | 40 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 13 |
| 59 | App State | 115 | 24 | 80 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 18 |
| 63 | South Carolina | 28 | 90 | 28 | 2.8 | -5.9 | -8.7 | 59 |
| 64 | Arizona | 44 | 80 | 45 | 2.6 | -3 | -5.6 | 54 |
| 65 | WMU | 78 | 45 | 87 | 2.5 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 7 |
| 66 | Navy | 110 | 48 | 54 | 2.4 | -1.5 | -3.9 | 47 |
| 67 | Kansas State | 63 | 79 | 31 | 2 | 1.1 | -0.9 | 36 |
| 82 | Colorado | 50 | 87 | 101 | -2.2 | 13.9 | 16.1 | 1 |
| 86 | Oregon State | 52 | 102 | 57 | -2.9 | -4.1 | -1.2 | 38 |
| 93 | Tulsa | 89 | 91 | 76 | -5 | -2.6 | 2.4 | 23 |
