Earlier this season I began writing reviews of Texas football games and throwing them up as Fanposts. I've enjoyed writing these reviews a ton, and I'm working on making them better each week.
This week I thought it would be neat to write a preview based on the same stats that I write about in the advanced stats review. In addition to previewing the Kansas State game, my hope is that this post will help give some much-needed structure to the upcoming Kansas State review.
As always, here is the super helpful advanced stats glossary.
Let's see what (some of) the numbers have to say about this game.
| Projected Winner | Win Probability | |
| S&P+ | Texas | 58.90% |
| FEI | Kansas State | 66.50% |
| ESPN FPI | Kansas State | 55.50% |
The favorite in the upcoming Texas-Kansas State match-up varies across the the spectrum of advanced ratings systems (I have only included 3 here), but they are all telling a similar story- expect a close game in Manhattan.
When Texas has the Ball
| Texas Offense | Kansas State Defense | ||
| Offensive S&P+ (Rk) | 38.8 (16) | Defensive S&P+ | 26.6 (52) |
| Off. Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 108.1 (46) | Def. Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 118.6 (20) |
| Off. Rushing Success Rate (Rk) | 0.492 (18) | Def. Rushing Success Rate (Rk) | 0.358 (20) |
| Off. Rushing IsoPPP (Rk) | 0.98 (98) | Def. Rushing IsoPPP (Rk) | 1.08 (72) |
| Off. Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 111 (42) | Def. Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 96.3 (81) |
| Off. Passing Success Rate (Rk) | 0.455 (27) | Def. Passing Success Rate (Rk) | 0.5 (127) |
| Off. Passing IsoPPP (Rk) | 1.56 (45) | Def. Passing IsoPPP (Rk) | 1.43 (64) |
| Off. Adj. Sack Rate | 112.5 (55) | Def. Adj. Sack Rate | 88 (86) |
| Off. Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 112.8 (32) | Def. Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 102.7 (57) |
| Off. Standard Downs Success Rate (Rk) | 0.544 (8) | Def. Standard Downs Success Rate (Rk) | 0.489 (89) |
| Off. Standard Downs IsoPPP (Rk) | 1.12 (64) | Def. Standard Downs IsoPPP (Rk) | 1.13 (83) |
| Off. Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 87.8 (107) | Def. Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 99.8 (71) |
| Off. Passing Downs Success Rate (Rk) | 0.274 (97) | Def. Passing Downs Success Rate (Rk) | 0.319 (81) |
| Off. Passing Downs IsoPPP (Rk) | 1.75 (66) | Def. Passing Downs IsoPPP (Rk) | 1.95 (107) |
A recurring theme about the Texas offense in my postgame reviews is that it is crucial for the Texas offense to stay on schedule. The Longhorns' offense has been good-to-very good on standard downs, but they are awful when forced into obvious passing situations. Efficient play on standard downs is vital for the Longhorns to be successful on offense.
At first glance, producing efficient play on standard downs should not be a problem for Texas against Kansas State. The Longhorns' offense has a massive standard downs success rate advantage over the Wildcats' defense, and while this statistic is not opponent adjusted, a gap that large is almost certainly significant. So we should be confident that Texas is going to be efficient on standard downs and score a ton of points in Manhattan, right?
Not necessarily. Kansas State does profile as the type of defense that could be well equipped to slow down the Longhorns, despite broad numbers that suggest otherwise.
Texas has been efficient in standard down situations because they run the ball efficiently (55.8% standard downs rushing success rate) and often (65.3% standard downs run rate, 33rd in the country). This strategy worked like a charm against poor run defenses such as Cal, but it will play directly into the hands of a stout Kansas State run defense. If the Texas offense chooses to run that often on standard downs against the Wildcats, a repeat of last week's first half performance against Iowa State is conceivable.
This is not to say that Texas is doomed on standard downs, but they might have to adjust their standard downs run-pass balance if they want to maintain a high level of efficiency.
Kansas State has one of the most inefficient pass defenses in college football, and Texas is well situated to take advantage of their inefficiency if Sterlin Gilbert elects to throw more often than usual on standard downs. Shane Buechele has been money when Texas is in favorable down and distances, with passing success rates of 52.3% on first downs and 60.6% on second downs of 7 yards or less to go.
To his credit, Gilbert has shown flexibility in his play calling this season, at least in terms of run-pass balance. Texas only ran the ball 52.6% of the time on standard downs against the Oklahoma Sooners, which is by far the most similar defense to Kansas State that the Longhorns have faced so far. I would not be surprised to see a run-pass balance closer to the OU game than the California game on Saturday, and I expect that the Longhorns will have better results than they had against the Sooners due to the weakness of Kansas State's pass defense.
*Note: Italicized metrics are NOT opponent adjusted
When Kansas State has the Ball
| Kansas State Offense | Texas Defense | ||
| Offensive S&P+ (Rk) | 27.5 (78) | Defensive S&P+ | 32.1 (89) |
| Off. Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 105.7 (56) | Def. Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 107.3 (42) |
| Off. Rushing Success Rate (Rk) | 0.494 (15) | Def. Rushing Success Rate (Rk) | 0.418 (68) |
| Off. Rushing IsoPPP (Rk) | 1.01 (88) | Def. Rushing IsoPPP (Rk) | 1.04 (51) |
| Off. Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 80.2 (118) | Def. Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 91.2 (97) |
| Off. Passing Success Rate (Rk) | 0.385 (88) | Def. Passing Success Rate (Rk) | 0.449 (103) |
| Off. Passing IsoPPP (Rk) | 1.22 (122) | Def. Passing IsoPPP (Rk) | 1.74 (123) |
| Off. Adj. Sack Rate | 75.5 (102) | Def. Adj. Sack Rate | 161.5 (8) |
| Off. Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 97.5 (85) | Def. Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 110.5 (28) |
| Off. Standard Downs Success Rate (Rk) | 0.502 (30) | Def. Standard Downs Success Rate (Rk) | 0.454 (55) |
| Off. Standard Downs IsoPPP (Rk) | 0.91 (125) | Def. Standard Downs IsoPPP (Rk) | 1.14 (85) |
| Off. Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 88.3 (105) | Def. Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 84.5 (111) |
| Off. Passing Downs Success Rate (Rk) | 0.327 (50) | Def. Passing Downs Success Rate (Rk) | 0.382 (119) |
| Off. Passing Downs IsoPPP (Rk) | 1.63 (93) | Def. Passing Downs IsoPPP (Rk) | 1.96 (108) |
Kansas State's offense is not very good, but they could cause problems for Texas' defense.
Pass defense has been a constant issue for the Longhorns all season, but they have as favorable a match-up this week as they will find in the Big 12. The Wildcats are neither efficient or explosive when they pass the ball, and they struggle mightily in pass protection. The Longhorns should have the advantage when Kansas State is forced into passing situations due to a pass rush that is becoming legitimately good (8th in adjusted sack rate), so long as the secondary does not have a repeat of the Bay Area Debacle.
Actually forcing Kansas State into obvious passing down situations is likely to be the issue for the Texas defense. The Longhorns have been okay against the run this season, but they were woefully inefficient against the only comparably good rushing attack that they've faced this season season (allowed a rushing success rate of 50% to Oklahoma). This will likely be a problem again this week against a Wildcats' offense whose only real strength on offense is staying on schedule with an efficient rushing attack.
Kansas State will run early and often (21st in standard downs run rate), and it will be up to the Texas front 6/7 to play their best game of the season to give the Longhorns a chance to get off the field.
Special Teams
Here are the definitions to all of the fancy special teams stats that are presented in this table.
| STE (Rk) | FGE (Rk) | KRE (Rk) | KE (Rk) | PRE (Rk) | PE (Rk) | |
| Texas | 0 (65) | 0.14 (57) | -0.12 (97) | 0.06 (61) | 0.08 (34) | 0.3 (11) |
| Kansas State | 0.07 (29) | 0.14 (56) | 0.24 (6) | 0.1 (38) | -0.16 (109) | 0.09 (36) |
Kansas State is a little bit better on special teams than Texas, but an efficiency difference of 0.07 is roughly equal to the difference between FEI's 9th best offense (Arkansas) and 10th best offense (Houston).
Kansas State's biggest advantage on special teams will occur on kickoff returns (6th best kick return team against 61st kick coverage team), while Texas will have a massive advantage when punting the ball (11th best punting team against 109th punt return team).
Conclusions
I think that Texas is a better team than Kansas State and they should win this game, but it is not hard to imagine a scenario in which the Wildcats are able to win.
Texas will be in good shape if they can either run the ball efficiently or use the passing game to stay on schedule on offense. The former could difficult against a stingy Kansas State front, so I expect for Texas to try and lean on the latter more often than Longhorn fans are accustomed to seeing. If Buechele avoids freshman glitches, it could be a long day for a poor Wildcat pass defense.
On the flip side, Kansas State will be in good shape if they can successfully do Kansas State things, i.e. take away what you do best and lean on what they do best. Expect to see the Wildcats focused on the run on defense and relying on a creative running game to slow the game down (117th in adjusted pace) on offense. Kansas State will have an excellent chance to win this game if they are able to force Texas into passing downs and avoid passing downs themselves.
