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Rivalry Week: “You can throw out the records when these two teams play.”

Posted by BRAGGonUT on November 21st, 2007 under Football

EyesOfTexas’s post regarding the relative lack of upsets in the Texas/Texas A&M series got me to thinking about the line, “You can throw out the records when these two teams play.” Any truth to that axiom for other in-state rivalries? Clearly, it is not true for T+1. See the comments I made to EOT on his post:

Thanks to the power of the internet I have found historical betting lines for every game back to 1980 (27 games). In those 27 games, 17 times a team has been favored by greater than a TD — I am arbitrarily using that as my definition of an upset — the favorite has won the game SU 14 times or 82% of the time.

2006 Texas lost 7-12 as a 13.5 point favorite
1984 Texas lost 12-37 as a 11 point favorite
1980 Texas lost 14-24 as a 12.5 point favorite

As an aside, the fact the line has been greater than a TD 17 out of the last 27 meetings is indicative of an unbalanced series. Twice in 27 years has the line been less than 3 points — 1998 and 1999 were both 2.5 point games so, I would definitely not characterize 1998 as an upset.

I grabbed the other 9 in-state rivalries for the rest of the week and did some analysis:
Note: Those in-state rivalry games were OU/OSU, UNC/DK, UW/WSU, UGA/GT, Clem/SC, FSU/UF, BAMA/AUB, VT/UVA, Miss/Ole Miss.

Of those 243 games (9 series x 27 years), a team was favored by more than 7 points 109 times (44.8% of the time) compared to 63% of the time in the Texas/Texas A&M series. Close games are not expected 40% more often than other rivalry games.

The favorite won that game 90 times or 82.4%, compared with 82.4% in the Texas/Texas A&M series. For comparison, per Phil Steele’s database from 1980-2004 (see link below), favorites of greater than 7 points won 82.0%. Interesting.

Angles of note:
The favorites of greater than 7 points in the UGA/GT, FSU/UF, and Clem/SC are a combined 32-2 SU. The Ole Miss/Miss St favorite of greater than 7 is only 3-2 straight up.

Of those 243 games, the line was only less than a FG 40 times or 16.4% and the Ole Miss/Miss St series contributed 11 of those. The Texas/Texas A&M series line was less than 3 only twice in the last 27 years or 7.4%. Close games were expected less than half as often as other in-state rivalries.

The Egg Bowl is clearly the most evenly matched rivalry game since 1980.

Since I know someone is going to ask, here are the numbers for TX/OU. Of the 28 games since 1980, a team was favored by more than 7 points 12 times (42.8% of the time). That favorite was 8-4 SU or 7567%. The line was less than a FG 5 times or 17.9%.

Reference links:
Phil Steele’s database from 1980-2004; oddly 2005- current is not available
Historical Betting Lines and Results since 2000

Your thoughts?

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5 Responses

  1. PatronSaint said:

    November 21st, 2007 at 12:57 pm

    ” That favorite was 8-4 SU or 75%. ”

    Check your math

  2. PatronSaint said:

    November 21st, 2007 at 1:01 pm

    An interesting read. I suspected that the “throw the record books out” was just a way to make the underdog feel like he’s got a shot, and to generate discussion among fans of the favorite. I’m not surprised to learn that it isn’t based in fact.

  3. BRAGGonUT said:

    November 21st, 2007 at 2:48 pm

    Fixed it. Thanks Patron. I was just making sure you were paying attention. ;)

  4. EyesOfTX said:

    November 21st, 2007 at 3:06 pm

    Nice stuff, Bragg.

    FWIW, I’ve always thought the directly inverse recruiting relationship between Texas and A&M is the main reason why we see such a disproportionate percentage of double-digit betting lines and outright routs in games between the two schools. When Texas is strong and recruiting well, A&M historically is not. When A&M is strong and recruiting well (which only happens when they’re out buying players, Texas is not. These two schools have always been going after the same pool of players.

    Texas and Oklahoma, by contrast, have some recruiting overlap, but it’s only about 20-30% in any given year, rather than the 80-90% where Texas/A&M are concerned.

    Anyway, that’s my theory, and I’m sticking to it.

  5. Ags "01 said:

    November 23rd, 2007 at 9:27 pm

    You’re really smart.

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