What I Know About Texas That They Don't

The poll has Bama WAY too high. There will be too many new faces on defense ready to exploit. Just like in 2010, when there was enough talented inexperience in the secondary to succumb to The Game of Stephen Garcia’s Life.

Scipio, I think you’ve got Bama and Texas right where they ought to be.

Vulcan -
 
I’m in complete agreement. I expect the Tide to lose 2-3 games next year. I guess the 2011 title will Tide you over just fine until the 2013 reload.

But, but… NICK SABAN!

Where am I wrong?

Only, I say only if there is an injury at QB. We are all in on David Ash during this off-season, and that means we enter next year (again) without any real backup.

Although #10 sounds more accurate for the reasons you mention (stout defense, better offense, soft OOC schedule), being a bit under-rated at 19 benefits us psychologically. I hope to see us rated at about that next August.

srr50 -
 
True. But that’s probably applicable to more than half of the teams in the Top 25. We just have the most dire consequences.

i too believe WVU to be a bit too high, as BIGXII defenses will drag the Moonshine offense back to its mean.
Michigan, Nebraska and Wisconsin are all a tick too high as i believe that will be a virtual round robin reach around where you see a two-loss B1G champ.
i also believe the Horns STU will account for more non-offensive TDs and denied points, making us a Hokie’s wet dream with all the talent and depth coming in, as you alluded to.
That to me makes all the difference.

There have been teams in college football that have been able to almost eschew rebuilding in favor of reloading. USC had seven consecutive top four finishes under Carroll, and Florida State did something similar in the 90s. Alabama could be that team now. Even in losing three games in 2010 Alabama was arguably a top five caliber team (Football Outsiders had them third in their final FEI rankings I think). Their recruiting has been better than anyone’s and they ruthlessly oversign. So while this is a rebuilding year for Alabama and a MNC seems really far-fetched, a number three ranking doesn’t seem that high. They’re top ten, at least. An 11-2 record and a 5-8 finish sounds about right to me.

Full agreement on Texas.

hopeful -
 
I think we rise as people do their due diligence. But I’d love to see us in the role of underdog. Lord knows there’s enough complacency here to be found if our players or coaches are looking for it.

I’m less inclined to assign a ranking to UT for 2012 because I don’t know how good other teams may be, how many Boise State’s will win 11 games in a crappy conference etc. I do agree the Horns will be a better team next year for the reasons you suggest but would add that a really good punter, and a kickoff specialist that can give us touchbacks from time to time, will help this team immensely and I think those two players are coming. Someone who actually has the time should go back and look at the ‘hidden’ yards we gave up on possessions due to Tucker’s worn out leg. I bet we would all be shocked. Combine a better Texas team with the big losses from OSU, ou and Baylor and the record should be better.

You are not wrong. I had Texas at 11.

scagnetti -
 
Great points all.
 
bigduke -
 
Yeah, I agree. One difference I’d point out is that Alabama’s defensive calls are incredibly sophisticated for a college defense. So some of their battle isn’t just about talent - it’s also about learning curves that leave dudes open for 80 yard touchdown passes. They also have a pretty tough schedule.
 
I’m definitely not digging any graves for the Tide - just pointing out that legitimate championship contention isn’t in the cards.

RS -
 
You rosy optimist, you. Who stole your password?
 
Blatant -
 
Really enjoy your blog. You guys get it.

I see Nebraska slumping to about 7-5 or 6-6 next year, sadly… we lost our only three playmakers on defense, and the offense is still a mess of poor OL play and half-constructed schemes lacking a coherent theme (I’ve seen small-town Iowa high schools run the option with more efficiency than Taylor Martinez (or Jordan Jefferson, for that matter)). #17 is a real stretch for us.

Agree with your comments on UT. Stick to the Holiday Bowl gameplan and with Griffin/Weeden/Blackmon gone, they could win 10.

Finally, I want to admire Collin Klein for his wonderful, 1952-like stat line running the football this year. Brutal but ultimately effective… who said the single-wing is dead?

YEAR TEAM ATT YDS AVG LNG TD
2011 KSU 317 1141 3.6 63 27

The 5th beast team in the 5th best Conference in the nation sounds about right.

What’s your take on TCU? I think many are discounting the significant increase in their strength of schedule. But I also don’t think Patterson is one to let his team hang their heads after their first Big 12 Conference loss and mail it in for the rest of the season. I think they’ll be a tough out, but not 3rd best behind OU and WVU.

TexasWright -
 
I think we’ll have several teams in the upper half of the league swapping losses and TCU will be in that group. No one is going to run away with it.

I don’t see how 9 months and the incoming recruits can get us 3 more wins, but I am glad aggy is gone.

I will be the first to admit my naïveté with regard to the UT staff on both sides of the ball. And I do believe your assumptions are sound and reasonable. But what is profoundly striking to me as you reflect and prognosticate on 2012 is that your scheme, in-game play call, in-game adjustments, and overall creativity all have a negative impact on your results, specifically as referenced in “…stains.. from 2006-2010.” Tide, Cheer, Biz Bleach, or Oxy Fresh (God rest Billy Mays) have no chance to work if there are systemic prions that have not been addressed, the best talent and intentions will not achieve the success that The Longhorn Nation yearns for…

TCU is over-ranked. Good as the Frogs have been, they aren’t 10-2 in 2011 playing a Big 12 schedule. They aren’t 13-0 in 2010 playing a Big 12 schedule. They aren’t . . . etc., etc.

Agree with almost everything else you wrote, Scipio. (And welcome back; geez, I’ve missed your turning of phrases. I think we’ll be OK kicking the ball — it’s an area we pay a lot of attention to, even losing all three kickers (all had the same name; how odd).

Noticed CST (College Station Tech) is ranked about 45; guess the SEC is already taking its toll on the Aggies.

My early line in the Big 12 (assuming Almost Heaven joins us) . . .
OU
UT
OSU
TCU
WV
K-State
Tech
Baylor
I-State
KU

Far too many uncertainties for me to go as high as number 10. I think that poll has it about right. We don’t beat OU without a QB who gets his jersey retired, and we don’t beat K-State ever, so there’s two losses. We don’t know who the non-Shipley WRs are, whether our time in the TE wilderness is over, whether the juco kid will enable us to restructure the OL, whether Ash will progress to the point where Harsin lets him throw the ball between the hashmarks, whether Jordan Hicks is the Holiday Bowl Hicks or the JAG-ish player he was the rest of the year, etc. . .

I guess 10 is a safe place to put is; I probably would have gone about 15. In my thinking, this could all gel and we could be a top-5 team or it could just not fit together for whatever reason, and we barely stay inside the top-25. I feel good about us next year, but am apprehensive.

Scipio, tell your readers I’m picking Arkansas. Sorry fellas…

I remember reading that Auburn article Scip, and not being surprised at all on Auburn’s season. There are few people out on the web with your football IQ.

You do have to be careful though. When you even so much as express optimism about Texas football, the rest of us get our hopes way up.

Just kidding fellas. I’m picking Texas!

@JUICE

+1

I also think that the MBOC (Mack Brown Opportunity Cost) will also translate into a lower ceiling for this team this year. The MBOC has been manifest in the losses to KSU and the couple of upsets to aggy directly after the national championship. KSU, TCU and WVU are all games we could lose due to the MBOC this year. OU and OSU have proven systems in place and are prolly just plain better than we are still. We will lay a couple of eggs due simply to the effete tone that the Avuncular Nincompoop pervades the team with, despite the talent and energy in the staff.

I’m reasonably confident that the low (relatively) opinions of Texas come from analysis that goes like this:
5-7, 7-5, no good QB+texas recruits=barely in the top 25.

I think we have a chance to be one of the 5-10 best teams in the country. Given how murderous the Big 12 will be though it may be hard to get into the BCS rankings and reach 10 wins.

EDSP:
I think OSU takes a step back. I have trouble seeing them fending off WVU, KSU, and TCU. Look out for ISU as well. Anyone notice that Tech is returning basically their entire defense? With better size on DL I think they could make a huge leap in performance there. Doege is probably one of the best QB’s in the conference next year.
KSU isn’t really losing any important pieces, just volume. Snyder can replace 10 or so overachieving starters easily enough. Malone, Arthur Brown, Meshak, and Abednego are all back on D. Klein, Hubert, and their good young receivers are back as well.
Baylor is going to plummet.

Wiggsy,

We got the mustard off the defense. We hired an incredibly effective Tide Stick on that side of the ball. On the offense, there is a grease outline still, but we are only two more cycles of Shout Gel application and wash away from that being gone.

I don’t know if we are capable of using the nearly fascist playcalling used in the SEC that allows them to execute those game plans that result in 13-10 scores. I just don’t think we can expect to walk the tight rope to 10-2.

Not to mention, our opponents are unlikely to groupthink conservative with us like the do for Bama and LSU in the SEC. Those pesky Big XII coordinators try to convert 3rd and 8 or score touchdowns from the 10 yard line.

In my experience, the only thing that can offset the MBOC is a transcendant player and team leader at QB. If we don’t have that - which we don’t - we are subject to the full impact of the MBOC. #10 is way to high, Scip. For the rest of you thinking we’ll gel into a Top 5 team - please contact me regarding some wonderful time share investment opportunities.

Moreso, I should add that the transcendant QB and leader needs to be an upperclassman to overcome the MBOC. Colt McCoy and Vince Young both lost games where the MBOC came into play. Hell, Tech 2008 was an MBOC game, come to think of it.

I think you’ll lose between 3-4 games prior to the bowl game. Where does 9-3 put you?

I think you’ll lose between 3-4 games prior to the bowl game. Where does 9-3 put you?

Higher than 9-3 Texas A&M.

Teasing, Trout. Love you, bud.

I dont know where we will end up, but Texas will win 10 games next year. Could have done it this year had Fozzy not gone down.

@ Felonious Monk

could you explain what you mean by the Mack Brown Opportunity Cost? I feel like I have a basic understanding of what you’re talking about but would love a more in depth explanation.

Nebraska CCG 2009 was an MBOC game where Colt somehow willed a win and was able to eek out a couple of plays to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. It took a senior QB to do it, mind you. The OU game in 2009 was another MBOC game overcome by a senior Colt. However, the MBOC finally prevailed in the MNC that year. The Avuncular Nincompoops debilitating schmucktitude should not be underestimated…

Scip I think you are pretty close. I expect at top 10 ranking next year. However, overall we will tend to rank Texas higher because we know more about our team. Same could be said for the other schools. I’m sure Washington fans are privy to information that makes them a top 15 team. So although I believe we are ranked too low, I dont have a problem with it since we do not know this much about the others. Like there could be 25 articles like this on the other 25 teams ya know?

Kilgore - somewhere around 10-15 depending on how the season has played out for the rest of the teams in the country.

2011 - Baylor (12), OU (14)
2010 - Bama (16), A&M (17)
2009 - VaTech (11), LSU (12), Miami (15)

The delta on OU’s potential next year is absolutely enormous, and I don’t seem to understand why more people don’t recognize this. We could honestly go 8-4 (losing to Tech, WVU, TCU, and Texas), or we could possibly run the table. The two major variables are 1) Landry Jones’s play without Ryan Broyles and 2) How the defense reacts to Mike Stoops taking over and Brent Venables leaving. I don’t think you can rank OU honestly without seeing how those two variables play out in the spring.

Someday I would like to see something written on just how bad the sins from 2006-2009 were. How they crippled us and the far reaching consequences we had to endure because of this lazy era. Maybe its too early but it could include what exactly happened every year to lead to 5-7, 7-5 and who is responsible, what were they thinking, examples on how fat and lazy were really were, the chances and players we missed out on and what has been done to correct each problem. What problems still seem to persist, ect.

@looking for clarity

Back before he was angst ridden and emotionally ambivalent, the younger version of Mack was a good enough coach to lift us from the Mackovic doldrums, get us to the 10 win mountain top and occasionally position us on the cusp of the MNC discussion provided he recruited well, hired good coaches underneath him and got the hell out of the way. But, taking that next step into MNC contention and actually winning conference championships has largely eluded the Longhorns except when we had a truly special upperclassman at QB to lead the way. The reason IMO is that consistently competing for the truly big prizes in major college football requires that something extra that only the leadership, inspiration and old-fashioned guts of the head coach can provide. When the recruited talent and good work of the staff gets us to the cusp of the highest echelons in CFB, Mack being Mack (the Avuncular Nincompoop) becomes a delimiting factor as the positive underlying aspects of the program have then taken us as far as they can.

There is an opportunity cost to having Mack as the head coach as opposed to the consistent big-time winners like Saban, Urban Meyer (I think he’s washed up now, but he had a great run), Les Miles and even Bob Stoops. There is absolutely no question in my mind that we are at a profound disadvantage when the Horns face a team with a HC like that on the other sideline.

So, there is the MBOC explained in two paragraphs. Thoughts?

I just refuse to believe we finish 5th in the B12 next year given how little we lose. I’d pick us to finish 3rd and I’m optimistic that we’ll be 8-1 (OU) heading into WVU game (assuming it’s in the Mizzou slot).

I have NO IDEA what happens against WVU, K-State and TCU. We could have an amazing season or an amazingly disappointing one and it will all come down to the final 3 weeks.

The MBOC effect seems, as you describe, limited to the offense where a (to continue overusing an adjective) transcendent QB can make all the difference. We had solid defenses in many of Mack’s years.

Why wouldn’t the departure of GD impact your MBOC theory? In fact, the departure of Greg Davis may prove to be the actual MBOC effect you’re talking about, no?

Didn’t both Darron Thomas and LaMichael James declare for the draft? If so, Oregon looks too high for me. Michigan leaves me a little cold as a top 10 pick. Robinson is still a square peg in their offense and I believe they were very fotunate to have had the record they did last year—-see Notre Dame game.

It’s way early, but I do not see anything resembling a dominant team next year. LSU could wind up there if Jefferson’s replacement has a functioning brain and/or can throw a lick.

Unfortunately, Stanford’s slide back to pre-Harbraugh levels will begin quickly based on the decisions I saw in the Fiesta Bowl.

@ RomaVicta

I would really like to ascribe to your way of thinking on this matter. I really would. But, I just can’t. Mack’s avuncularity and general schmucktitude is bigger than that IMO. Mack could have Genghis Khan and Sun Tzu as Co-OC’s and still find a way to fuck it up. I would love to be proven wrong and will gladly eat a big heaping helping of crow if it plays out like that.

I will concede that the relative performance of the defense versus the offense is a data point that supports your premise.

Thanks for the explanation. It seems to me that the MBOC effect is another way of saying Mack is CEO and recruiter for Texas but does not have the game planning and in game skills to put us over the top. That’s hard to argue with.

Personally I’m hopeful that the move to Harsins more balanced system eliminates the need for a transcendental QB to win big games.

Any team without a leader is gonna have trouble no matter who the head coach is. I don’t think you can blame the coaches when none of the players step up. I know a major reason for the 5-7 season was because of lazy coaching/recruiting, but at the same time, that time didn’t have a leader on offense or defense (except for maybe Sam Acho) and it definitely showed. This year with the revolving door at QB it was almost impossible to develop any kind of leadership on offense, but the Emmanuel Acho and Blake Gideon (still glad that he’s gone) stepped up and it started showed in the second half of the season. This whole MBOC theory just seems like nit-picking to me

Felonious Monk: I think we would all be enlightened if you explain what “opportunity cost” means and how it applies to Mack Brown’s tenure at UT.

@DGB, so you are coming to Texas right?

Oh wait, I reread your post. Can you explain where and when Texas made the choice to retain Mack Brown as opposed to bringing in Bob Stoops, Urban Meyer before he flamed out, Nick Saban, or Les Miles.

@Fellache Me
Totally. Too many inbreds up in Arkansas for my taste

I wonder how many people who always criticize Mack for being a terrible coach have played football for him and actually been coached by him. I haven’t been coached by him so I can’t say how good of a coach he is, but I feel like there’s a reason he makes like $6 million a year

This MBOC theory seems to be best summed up as: Stupid acronym to lend credibility to the opinion that Texas should have Nick Saban and/or 2006-2008 Urban Meyer as its current head coach and to cover how silly a charge it is to say that everything that goes wrong for Texas in football games can be laid at the feet of Mack Brown.

It would be convenient if this were the case and Deloss Dodds merely needed to snap his fingers and we would have a slightly better coach who would insure multiple MNC’s.

Watching people grasp for an understanding of what does and does not result in championships is pretty interesting. It’s a crapshoot, guys. Accept that fact and find more enjoyment in the game.

@DGB,
I call them the Arkansas sisterfuckers, but a guy I work with made a very valid point. He said there is a reason they say woo pig sooie. It’s because they are actually pig fuckers

@ Nickel Rover

The definition of the term “opportunity cost” from Investopedia is at this link http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/opportunitycost.asp#axzz1k2yJqFaW. It is a pretty solid definition with some additional explanation.

To boil it down, opportunity cost is the foregone benefits resulting from choosing one investment, course of action, etc. over another possible alternative. Essentially, Mack’s $5 million plus a year is an investment decision made by the University. There is only one head coach and by choosing the current head coach we are foregoing a whole range of other possibilities. The MBOC is essentially the lost games and lost opportunities resulting from that investment decision. I provided some examples in the thread for context.

Nickel Rover purposely pigeon-holes me by limiting the comparison to Mack Brown versus the list of examples of better head coaches I provided and then deeming the whole concept irrelevant because we never made a direct decision to not hire one of those coaches in Mack’s place. That is a red herring.

Furthermore, there is absolutely no need to get into the weeds and blame Mack for all of the specific day to day minutiae that resulted in the 5 - 7 debacle in 2010 and the numerous horsefuckings at the hands of OU as the overall results demand accountability from the head coach who makes $5 million plus per year. If the buck doesn’t stop at the HC, then where does the ultimate accountability lie? Is there ultimate accountability? Is that a big part of our problem?

I think Monk’s explanation is pretty damn accurate. Mack makes 6 million bucks because even though he has not won as many conference championships as he should have (with the talent and resources available), he has elevated Texas to the most success we have seen since Royal was here. And we are making money like we print it. Why would the school change - could we get a Saban? Possibly. But at what cost (not dollars, character). Mack is the guy the school and the parents want coaching their kids. That is the trade off. If we weren’t making a shit-load of money, he might have been replaced.

Where is the opportunity cost then?
Your answer is, fire mack brown and replace him with who exactly? The head coach who has “it”? What about the risks involved in losing Mack and replacing him with an unproven commodity who may or may not generate the same kind of program-elevating results that mack provided?

You cannot quantify the number of games we lost because Mack Brown was our head coach instead of unnamed alternative. You couldn’t do it with a named alternative. The appeal to economic concepts is intended to sound impressive but all you’re saying is that Mack Brown isn’t a good enough coach to achieve the results you expect from the UT Football program.

Why is Mack Brown not a good enough coach? What are his exact failings? Those would be substantive thoughts, not this silly window dressing for a simplistic opinion.

I think people under-estimate our defense. The stain of the RRS is still on them. Big duke mentioned it with Bama. I took awhile for people to understand Manny’s concepts. Once they were reacting and stopped thinking the defense was at a different level. I expect this defense to be on of Texas’s best in a long time. Top 10 is possible and BCS bowl can happen if offense develops. I think OL must rachet it up for that to happen. 2011 saw improvement, but we are far from a great o-line. Ash will be fine if the o-line improves

Scipio, I think you made a mistake when you called our secondary good. We return KennyV & the best of an incredible secondary. At the very least they should be very good and I am thinking they may very well be great.

Looking forward to a fun season and more frequent commentary from you.

Hook ’em!

Nice going, Scipio.

Jake,

Thomas and James did declare. I think a lot of people are expecting Bennett, Barner, and the other Thomas (who Snoop Dog evidently confused for Kobe Bryant while smoking) to take the baton without much drop off. I guess we’ll find out barring Mayan calendar issues. Phil Knight wouldn’t let that get in the way anymore than NCAA rules though.

Codaxx,

Absolutely right on the defense.

derail alert….. conversation returning to fire mack brown.

restate subject: UT is under ranked, but that is good. and…. go with it.

12 wins (counting bowl) and a top 5 finish. 2008 vibes when everyone thought 2009 was our year and we got there a year early.

Hear me now and believe me later… Defense is awesome, RB’s are awesome, line will be a lot better and qb play will be at least average.

This coaching staff has done a lot to restore my optimism about the program in 1 year. Things were looking pretty grim this time last year. Now, fans can reasonably forecast a top 10 ranking.

1. Baylor
2. Okie St
3. OU
4. A&M
5. Mizzou
6. Texas Tech

It’s been mentioned before, but it’s worth noting again. Those rankings are total offense nationally.

UT’s national rank for defense was #11. The next teams from the Big 12 were OU at #55, A&M #59 and Mizzour #61.

Ponder that for a minute. Then, imagine a UT team where the defense is basically the same, but maybe even better. AND an offense with a better QB, better OL and hopefully healthy RB stable of three backs that will likely all play in the NFL.

Providing we aren’t decimated again with injuries and the skill positions on offense, there’s no way this team doesn’t win 10. If things go our way, we’re in a BCS game. If things REALLY go our way, we could be in the NC game.

Before the rest of the country, and specifically Vegas, figures this out, I think I’m going to put a little money down for UT to win NC. I doubt we will, but the odds are better than most think.

David Ash will be much improved this fall. Spring practice and a summer of running the 7 on 7’s will show.

So all it’s going to take is more uncoached practice?

Maybe I’m being dense about it, but could someone explain exactly what Ash is going to do to improve? He has to deal with the receivers who are there, basically.

Since 10-2 would probably be good for a No. 10 final rating, is it safe to say those who think Texas will do worse are projecting either 9-3 or 8-4?

Texas went 8-5 with the least productive QB play in the conference and playing a slew of freshmen at other key spots, i.e. Cochran and Shipley. . . . I think Scip is right on the mark and can’t believe so many think he’s like a wild-eyed sailor on shore leave.

I do think there will be two losses . . .and I don’t think they’ll be easy to predict. I think they’ll be like the losses to Tech in 2002 and 2008 where somebody pulls off an ambush. If Wylie and the rest of the new regime continue to toughen this team up, they very well may be large in the big games.

Don’t believe you are. And I am one of the more skeptical commenters on this board.

Injuries or a worse-than-expected OL are the most likely pitfalls, but they could befall anyone, any time.

Hook ’em.

Bob in Houston said: January 20th, 2012 at 9:13 pm
So all it’s going to take is more uncoached practice?

Maybe I’m being dense about it, but could someone explain exactly what Ash is going to do to improve? He has to deal with the receivers who are there, basically.

A) Just by the shear fact that he’s no longer a puppy will make he at least incrementally better
B) 9 months of weight lifting
C) And why are you saying “uncoached?” Are the coaches taking the spring off? If not, Ash gets 4 months of work with Harsin
D) I expect Ash and his receivers will be working on timing over the summer

Nobody’s expecting a Heisman season, but the kid will have his FIRST season under his belt and the confidence earned from the Holiday Bowl. Unless he’s a head case, he’s going to be noticeably, if not significantly, better next fall.

1. Baylor…
2. Texas Tech…
   total offense nationally.
   UT’s national rank for defense was #11. The next teams from the Big 12 were OU at #55, A&M #59 and Mizzour #61.

The other way to look at this is that UT has maximized the benefits of great defense and further improvement in W and L’s will need to come from improvement on the offense. Ash will need to improve, but the OL and WR’s were culpable for much of the passing game http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MK6TXMsvgQg .

Improved QB, OL, and WR play is not a given.

At Oklahoma, I agree with Nate. The experiment that I hypothesized occurred. Jones lost Broyles and everything went http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuZTk1hdpMs
Proving the brilliance in the relationship was on the catching, not the passing end. That said, DGB or not, the OU WR class that is coming in is incredible. The OL is going to be pretty good, and the run game is the best in years.

OU’s defense is predicated on stopping the run first. Without dominent DL’s Stoops has not done this against balanced teams. OU’s defense has many holes. It will be interesting to see how they do next year, but not likely better than this year.

1) Dana Holgorsen is a black swan.

2) I want to lock in some of that 35% annual appreciation in California real estate.

Bob: I’m expecting that the spring and fall will familiarize Ash with the checks and audibles that can save and sustain drives and that he’ll develop far better muscle memory and mastery of the throws he’ll need to make next year.

Quiqley: Last year OU had a dominant downfield passing game with your stellar pass-protection and Landry’s arm. However, your answer to deep coverage was throwing hitches and screens to Broyles, who was terrifying in space. The running game wasn’t good enough to punish teams for playing soft coverage and Landry’s safety blanket check down was gone.

The belldozer deal is an awesome red zone/short yardage weapon but it’s not a constraint for the deep passing game, which is your strength, obviously because it takes Landry off the field.

I’m thinking that with an offseason you guys will find ways to supplement the deep game though with Whaley, Millard, and Finch back plus a host of candidates to play the slot. I don’t think the running game is going to be dominant with a cast of 6-5, 300 pound pass protectors but it should be pretty functional.

In regards to Texas finishing 11th in the nation against that cast of offenses it’s worth noting that

A). Our defense will be at least as strong
B). The opposing offenses will be weaker.

A). Our defense will be at least as strong
B). The opposing offenses will be weaker.

Aye. Agree.My assumptions are that we as a team will be slightly but not hugely better (with or without DGB), but that should be good enough to reach the MackStandardTM.

D will be as good, if not better. I don’t think we have any big problem areas.

O will (probably) be better… BUT multiple things have to happen with regard to improved QB play, better OL play in both pass blocking and run blocking, and receivers running proper routes and getting to AND catching passes that are not perfect… it would help enormously if we can find that one or two guys who tie together the OL and receiver corps together, that is the TE or two who can not only block but can run routes and catch; and of course, the runners (or enough of them) need to stay healthy. While Gray looks like the best of the best, it may not be realistic to expect him to be even better than a senior Fozzy, and of course, we don’t know if he will be better than Fozzy at remaining healthy.

I agree with those who think we would have had at least two more wins without the injuries, so I’m pretty much expecting those two - especially with what appears to be a considerably weaker slate of opponents. That should happen even if we aren’t dramatically better on offense, but don’t experience simultaneous injuries of most of our competent backs and receivers. That, in a way, makes me feel kind of bad, because it gets us to ten wins, even if we don’t have the “great” team we’ve come to expect, and of course ten wins is the MackStandardTM we all know and love.

At this point, the question I have for you is this: What happens if (unlikely as it may seem) we run into problems - whatever they may be, injuries, regression of any or all of the O parts, etc. - and wind up 7-5 (or worse) again? Does Mack experience the Curse of Chryst? Somehow, I think nothing would happen, other than more angst and possibly another extension. By firing Greg and hiring Harsin, Mack apparently bought himself three years rather than Chryst’s theoretical two and is almost certainly safe barring a complete and seemingly almost impossible collapse.

Hell, you know what, I might fire MY best friend, for fifteen or twenty megabux…

Has anyone given any thought as to whether WVU will be home or away next season? I’m guessing it will be away since TCU is allegedly at home. That could be a big factor in counting wins in 2012.

il cattivo: That’s a good point. No one is going to enjoy their first trip to West Virginia.

Tex Long: If we finish 7-5 or worse I would anticipate that Mack might still have another year before being fired but the leash might tighten to the extent that he starts to count the cost.

We would be eager to retain Diaz assuming our defense provided another performance like this year, so while I think Mack is going to get more time than most, certainly not more than 1 more sub-standard season.

I think many of you are not considering the power of an experienced, talented, well-coached defense. You can’t lose a game if the other team doesn’t score, but a track meet is totally unpredictable.

I believe that the pendulum has now swung to defense in the evolution of college football - even in the Big 12.

Our offense will be improved next year, if for no other reason than the learning curve. Throw in the extra year of maturity and a stellar recruiting class, make the optimists the realists of the group and the pessimists grumpy old men.

Just my .02 cents.

Before I take exception to being lumpy with the grumpy… do you consider the expectation of 9-3 for the regular season as being pessimistic? I don’t. A record of 7-5, while pessimistic, is nevertheless far from impossible. That wouldn’t be the end of Mack - as I said, I think he bought himself three years with the three-year hires on the new staff. Now… a complete implosion would be enough, but it would be for any coach, even the vaunted Satan, and it’s so unlikely as to be not worth consideration.

I’m a homer. And since I married my Cali girl, I’m an optimist. However, I think it’s a slam dunk that we are better on O next year for the simple reason that when we were injured this year, you couldn’t be any worse.

Obviously our passing game is going to get better based on A) we didn’t lose much and young players get better over time B) it was our main QBs first year starting C) he was a true freshman with limited passing snaps in practice D) we have several potential impact players coming in on that side of the ball E) it was our first year in a new system and it was our OCs first year installing one from scratch F) it was our first year with a functional S&C coach.

I think people are going to be VERY surprised at our offense next year. Heck, I think Harsin is going to get better this year than last as a play caller.

Defense is going to be great but also interesting. We are going to inflict more negative plays up front and cover more ground in the deep back, but we might really miss Achobison’s ability to clean up plays. Get used to a few more short plays going for 5 - 10 more yards without them.

Texas had one of the best defenses in the country and went 7-5 and nearly went 6-6. Without major improvements across the board on offense I dot not see a top ten team.

The Holiday Bowl proved the theory that injuries derailed our season was horseshit. We suck on offense right now.

Nickel,
We agree on most everything. That said:
1. Short passing game: Agree that Broyles was crucial to this. His key was his fearlessness. I’d love to see that from one of the WR’s and think that we can get it from another position group but this remains to be proven.

2. Run game: Again agree that it won’t be dominant, but it doesn’t have to be. It has to be functional. I was waiting for the Belldozer and was surprised that it took til game 6 to unveil it. That said, Drew Allen is a pretty good runner too and Bell has to improve only a smidge to make a down field throw or TE flare a constraint to 9 in the box. I don’t think it can be understated how poor OU was with short yardage running prior to the institution of the QB run game.

3. RE: UT defense: I don’t doubt your D will be as strong and may be stronger. UT is approaching an asymptote with the D. Will stronger D convert a loss to a win? I don’t know. Therefore, improved O is needed for this so I was restating some points that several of posters, including you, have made regarding deficiencies in 2011 that remain uncertainties.

4. Injuries: Injuries are predictable in football. Happen every year to every team (OU 2000, Nat’l champion team is the obvious exception to this). OU lost leading rusher and receiver just like UT. Overcoming these obstacles separates successful teams.

Quigley:

1). I’m with you on betting on OU’s short passing game to improve. Continuing to involve Finch + the emergence of any one of your 4/5 star young WR’s should do the trick. I’m betting your OL murders people on screens and draws as well.

2). All true, the installation of the belldozer reminded me of last year when you stole the pistol from OSU midway through the year and found comparable success with it. Land/Scheme Thieves. I meant on an every down basis that the threat of the belldozer won’t set up Landry throwing deep to Stills and Reynolds though.

3). One way in which our defense can have a greater impact than last year is in turnovers. When we turned the corner towards the end of the year we started producing TO’s and greater pressure on the QB. For all our stinginess in giving up yards we didn’t generate TO’s like OU or OSU last year. Not even close. With our 4 best defensive backs returning and several good pass-rushers I’m optimistic here.

4). I think it should be clear that OU’s injury losses weren’t as deep as UT’s and you can far more easily afford them, even if they spoiled your BCS chances.
If you look back at many of the MNC’s of the last 10 years most of them had great luck with injuries.

“The Holiday Bowl proved the theory that injuries derailed our season was horseshit. We suck on offense right now.”

It’s been fairly well established that our offense wasn’t terribly healthy for the Holiday Bowl and that Mack was once again using gamesmanship with the injury report. Shipley may have been our healthiest injured piece, and it’s no surprise that our biggest plays came from Ash, Goodwin, Irby, and Cody. This isn’t that hard to figure out.

It certainly possible that we don’t improve on offense, but we’ll have more correct pieces to plug in along the offensive line (instead of playing 4 guards and a frosh LT) as well as another year in the system and conditioning for those who need it after coming in as freshmen or spending last offseason recovering from surgery. We’ll have three high quality running backs to share the load of which two will have another offseason to familiarize themselves with the system and get stronger to avoid injury. I don’t like placing all our eggs in Ash’s basket, but he showed some positive sign in the bowl game, and should improve with all the offseason activities he was not really able to participate in last year. The real question for me is who plays TE for us, and who compliments Shipley.

We have questions to be answered as all teams do, but it’s a metric sh*t ton less than we had last offseason, and we no without doubt that one side of the ball will be a true strength even if we see a drop off at linebacker. Who handles the kicking duties is more pressing in my mind than whether our offense develops. I’m confident in one, and unsure of the other.

Summing up last year’s top 3 Big 12 defenses:

OU:
40 sacks
forced 20 fumbles, recovered 12
15 interceptions
27 TO
5.1 ypp

OSU:
30 sacks
forced 27 fumbles, recovered 20
24 interceptions
44 TO
5.5 ypp

UT:
29 sacks
forced 21 fumbles, recovered 14
12 interceptions
26 TO
4.6 ypp

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2012/vn-putting-bow-2011

Nickle—We’re agreeing. UT’s F+ defense rank was 4. How much better are they going to get and how much better will it make your team if your offense doesn’t match up?

I’d contend that the reason LSU and Bama are so much higher, and even OSU is higher, than UT’s defense this year is because those other 3 teams had offenses that didn’t place their defense is poor situations time and again. OU’s defense was 10.0 while UT’s defense was 11.0. Again, OU’s offense didn’t commit as much hari kari as UT’s.

For a beautiful analysis of recruiting rankings, please look at the following post by Mathlete:
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/what%E2%80%99s-5-star-really-worth-predicting-future-team-success-recruiting-rankings?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+mgoblog+%28mgoblog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

We’re approaching a time that average fans have access to statistical analysis (from mgo and bill connelly) and player/scheme analysis (from barkingC and chris brown) that makes it possible to really analyze teams smartly. Thanks for what you do, q

Felatious Monk. Spot on. Very few could argue with the Mack Brown OC. It seems the few reside here. I suspect that’s the case with every fan base, though. Believe me majority agree with your assessment. The people who call the shots however like their access to the program under Mack. When you are one of the top donors and get access to practice daily you put personal gain first and settle on the MBOC. Mack has successfully and intentionally found a way to become irreplaceable. Very smart man. He is here until he wears out.

Nickle—
The flip side to OU’s success in sacks was they propensity to yield big plays. F+ undervalues this because of its algorithm. Fumbles, with large sample size, are recovered at a 50% clip. OU and UT recovered about what they should’ve, OSU recovered more. OSU’s secondary is respected nationally and did a great job.

Again, the key is how many TD’s did UT’s offense create through the air?
UT 16 (OU 29, OSU 40)

UT’s gotten the juice out of the defense. Make the O come around. It will, maybe.

Texas could have have won 5 MNC in a row and some people on these boards would still be calling for his firing. An argument can be made that Mack has not gotten the best out of his talent, but did not see that argument made here in a convincing fashion.
Mack is 141-39 in 14 seasons at Texas. 23 of those losses occurred in his first 3 years and the last 2 years. From 2001-2009, Mack’s record was 101-16. That’s about an .86 % winning percentage. During that time Texas played in 2 MNC games and should have been in 3 and possibly 4. Only a couple of vindictative votes in the 2008 coaches polls kept Texas out of the 2008 MNC against Florida. The 2004 team was a better team in December than the Sooner team that got slaughtered by USC in the MNC game. Without injury to McCoy in 2009, Texas wins the MNC game by 2-3 touchdowns.
Has Texas lost games over Mack’s 14 years that they should have won? I certainly can think of a few, Colorado in 2001 in the Big 12 CG, a couple of games against A&M in 2006 and 2007, TT in 2008, but most of the games lost were to teams that were actually better than Texas at the time. I think all the OU losses have been to superior teams at the time of play.

There is not a coach in college football that has not lost several games they should have won. Mack’s teams have been very good at coming from behind to win big games. The one big knock I have on Mack and his coaching is that it seems he does not have his team ready to play at the opening gun. Too often over his 14 years the Horns have gotten down 2 scores or more early in a game. Fortunately they have been able to rebound in most of them. A good trait of a Mack Brown team is that they don’t blow leads. Only once in his 14 years has Texas lost a game where they have lead by 9 or more points in the second half and that was against Baylor in 2010.

Firing Mack is not going to make the Longhorns better. Firing Mack is not going to put Texas in the MNC game in 2012. But even I, a solid Mack Brown supporter, would call for his firing if Texas has two more years with more than 3 losses. I don’t think there will be.

I’m not a big fan of David Ash, but I saw enough in the Holiday bowl to realize that if he can manage the game without turning the ball over, Texas will be capable of winning every game.

Tex Long, you handsome dog, no one would ever call you a grumpy old man. :-)

Is 9-3 unreasonable? No, but I don’t like to predict wins/losses preseason because I go into every game believing we will win, but then I have always been a competitor. A true competitor always expects victory. Why else compete? While I realize it’s the team that competes, and we are only spectators, it just ‘feels’ incredibly disloyal to expect my team to lose.

But then I’m just an older version of a girl…

Honesty I just want to beat OU. If we can do that great if we cant, I lose interest by October. Hopefully this team comming back can bring it in Dallas. I think they can but I’ve thought that before and was on the pirate ship by third quarter in some cases. Somewhere along the way we justify getting to some number of wins, the MB 10, created to give us hope. Its the
 the opposite with me, we could continue to lose to K-State every year and if we just beat OU I would be at peace. DKR ran roughshod over OU when they were winning titles and 57 straight games. His career 14-9 record meant that while they were in their golden age, we were better. I would like to a least return to our historic 60% winning clip and until we once again dominate.

I love Nassim Nicholas Taleb. His books opened my eyes to the economic and social impact of epistemic arrogance. Plus, I can now go around and smugly use terms such as recency bias and narrative fallacy during conference calls with my management team to criticize the irrationality of their decision making.

Speaking of recency bias… Alabama.

OU final rank- result (UT win or loss)
4 UT Loss
1957 5 win
15 win
nr win
nr win
8 win
10 win
nr win
nr win
nr loss
3 win
11 win
nr win
20 win
2 loss
2 loss
3 loss
1 loss
1 loss
1976 5 tie

Royal’s win streak ended Wilkinson’s dominance. Royal didn’t beat OU’s classic teams. Switzer ended Royal’s era of dominance. We are in a unique period of the rivalry with both teams being strong concurrently. Since WWII, UT and OU have been ~ equal, 33-31-3 in UT’s favor. The 60% win clip historically is based on UT dominance prior to WWII (26-11-2, 70%) and equality thereafter. There has been a regression to the mean that will likely continue.

The Holiday Bowl proved the theory that injuries derailed our season was horseshit. We suck on offense right now.

It’s been fairly well established that our offense wasn’t terribly healthy for the Holiday Bowl and that Mack was once again using gamesmanship with the injury report. Shipley may have been our healthiest injured piece, and it’s no surprise that our biggest plays came from Ash, Goodwin, Irby, and Cody. This isn’t that hard to figure out.

I think the truth is somwhere in the middle. Our runningbacks were proabably still a little hobbled, but M. Brown showed that he was almost 100% by picking up some tough yards and showing some burst in a few spots. What I think was exposed in the bowl game was that our O-line still needs to take the next step in terms of becoming a dominant run blocking unit. We had some huge rushing games against some mediocre (and one awful) fronts. Until we can line up and run the ball against high level defensive fronts, we are not where we need to be to contend for championships with an offense weighed heavily toward he running game.

Watching people grasp for an understanding of what does and does not result in championships is pretty interesting. It’s a crapshoot, guys. Accept that fact and find more enjoyment in the game.

I would change that comment to. It’s a crapshoot, unless you offer up money to ensure you get the game changer recruits that take your team to another level. Why else does the SEC have a stranglehold on the National Championship? Well, maybe the media and voter bias toward the SEC has something to do with it, as well, but if we could buy MEj and DGB in addition to some badly needed O-line recruits just think of the possibilities.

Texas will lose to OU and K St. They will lose one of these three games: TCU, Tech, Mizzou.

The USC/Oregon winner will play the SEC champ for MNC.

The fact that Nick Saban has won three MNCs in his last seven years as a college HC — with two different teams — doesn’t sound like a crapshoot to me. And Les Miles’s only MNC was with Sr and Jr and redshirt So players recruited by Saban. That would be four MNCs in seven years.

Signed,
Jealous Longhorn

Brown was healthy for the Holiday Bowl and that did not stop the Cal front from raping, murdering and setting our running game’s corpse on fire.

This is a QB driven sport and without one we will be severely limited. The coaches did absolutely nothing to address the most glaring weakness on the team. How can one forecast a top ten type of result?

1776: We don’t play Mizzou, run the numbers again.

Burntorangejuice: I meant that in the sense that you can get the best players possible and coach them up as well as you can and there are still a million factors and chances that will play out which could derail your hopes.
Mercenary teams seem to even their chances up a bit though, that’s for sure.

Newy25:
Neither of the teams competing for the 2011 championship enjoyed elite QB play.

Tman: How lucky was Saban that his team even had the opportunity to compete for the title?
He’s clearly the best though. He’s Belichek at the college level. Trained by Belichek, incidentally, he uses his schemes and methods.

Nickel,

I agree. I just saw an opportunity to take a shot at the $EC. T Man’s post was amusing in the context of this discussion.

Agree that the P-12 is a two-team league next year, making USC-Oregon probably the two surest things out there. However, Oregon and USC will probably play twice, which is going to make for some interesting voting if they trade losses.

I don’t see anyone coming out of the SEC undefeated or with one loss next year, which means their run comes to an end in 2013.

That leaves voters to pick between a 1 loss B12 or a 1 loss B1G, and I have no clue who that’s going to be. Why not Texas?

Or, just to send off the BCS properly, USC and Oregon can split their two games, both in overtime, and voters can send them both for a rubber match.

Horns offensive problems would be solved overnight with improved OL play. Would make Ash a better QB and unleash 3 great running backs in Brown, Bergeron, and Gray. Better OL play that helps Texas establish the run would certainly open up the deep middle for a couple of long bombs each game.

Would the bama D have caved to Baylor like ours did? Baylor?

You’re actually using Baylor as an example to disparage the defense?

The Baylor offense led by the Heisman Trophy winner on their home field that was helped by six Texas turnovers?

Seriously?

The SEC champ will be in the MNC game, one loss or not. The conference is that superior, which theyve proved

Thanks, Texoz and NR…

Came for the KU/UT basketball talk, left disappointed. All and all, I give it 4 stars.

Nickel Rover-

I am not talking about “elite”. AJ Macarron actually played pretty damn well though against a tough LSU defense. How do we get to that level of play and assuming we match Alabama’s NFL caliber offense line and running game production?

People want to compare Texas to that team because we do not have a Vince Young or Colt McCoy at QB anymore but fail to point out the big disparity in offensive line and special teams production.

No regression to the mean. We historically beat them 60% of the time regardless and including the recent slide. DKR proved that you can and should beat OU when they are at their best. Why use since WWII as some random metric? That’s like aggies talking about the series since 1975. C’mon man. We are historically better than OU no spin.

Mysterious—
Your understanding of the history of college football and statistics require more tutelage than I have time to provide. Good luck to you.

How funny is it going to be late next year when we (and others) have to root for ATM on November 10th because they play an undefeated Bama team?

Actually, it won’t be funny at all but it could happen.

@ Ty

I will never root for those cut and run hicks. Fuck ’em.

I wish the gripers could settle on a narrative. Did the talent level decline because of poor evaluation by Mack and the staff? Or did talented players fail to develop because of poor coaching? Please don’t pick both; Tech holds down both.

FWIW, I think it was poor talent evaluation — especially on offense. I can’t think of an elite offensive player signed since 2005. The list of high-quality players we missed or passed on is a powerful indictment.

@ Whiskey

Why does it have to be one or the other? The staff could certainly have over projected the potential of a good number of players and missed out on more talented ones, while simultaneously not developing the players that they had projected correctly.

The sense of optimism for the OL revolves around the juco transfer Hawkins improving the tackle position, along with callow Cochran adding some weight, strength and technique at the other bookend. Same physical improvement is looked for from C Dom Espinosa, while guard should be more than adequately filled with the extra maturation of Hopkins and Walters.

In fact, its possible, if not probable, that the OL could be a team strength, unless injuries force more unseasoned recruits into the trenches.

“This is a QB driven sport and without one we will be severely limited. The coaches did absolutely nothing to address the most glaring weakness on the team. How can one forecast a top ten type of result?”

Because 9-3 and an Alamo Bowl victory over a mediocre Pac 10 team gets you ranked 10-12. Based on where we are at warts and all, I don’t see how that’s not at least a minimum objective for next year.

Point is, we don’t know if we’ll have a QB or not.

We can’t draw too many conclusions from the performance of the true freshman, 4th string QB, we were forced to go to this past season. Other than to note that he played to script in the bowl win, after taking most of the snaps in the December preparation.

Baylor. Seriously. Baylor, for God’s sake.

You might want to picture them in another uniform then and recognize the talent that is in them.

Regarding WVU, i would think the easiest thing to do would be for TCU and WVU to fill in the same rotations as Aggy and mizzou. Both were going to be home games for Texas this year.

Mack Brown and is burdensome MBOC have a winning record against the following MNC game winning coaches:

Carr
Carroll
Tressel
Miles
Chizik

And is 1-1 against the great nick saban. His only losing record to a MNC coach is Stoops, but is 4-3 since finally breaking through in that series.

Wow, what a disadvantage we are at when facing those guys.

@Nickel Rover. Love your comments. No major program will entertain the possiblility of Diaz as a head coach right now. He’s just not ready. He will likely be courted by non BCS schools and the waiting to die Big East. We have him two more years locked in. If he and Harsin see through their recruits and make a NC apearance, they will have their pick of good offers. Diaz has benefitted greatly from Muschamp’s cupboard stock.

With the kind of pay that will be offered after 10 wins next season, they won’t want to go anywhere unless it’s a major BCS program (ala Muschamp). That will require 4 years at Texas and a National Title appearance……and it’s more likely than not if we have a QB, a tight end, two more good receivers (excluding Shipley).

@Scipio Our biggest reason for 10 wins next year with Ash will not just be his development, or the addition of J-Gray, it will be because our offensive line is considerably improved under the low credited Searles…#juco.

@Albert Street, @prehist51 You guys are estute, thanks for pointing that out. The offensive line is never noticed unless the QB is getting killed. J-Gray will do much better as a freshman as a result of a better line.

@Horncasting

“4 - 3 since finally breaking through in the series”, you’re really using that as a justification? That is one of the weaker cherry-picked statistics I have ever seen. Mack is 5 - 8 overall against Stoops including a nasty, nasty five game losing streak where we got blown out twice and a third blowout just this year. I’m pretty sure that three out of the worst five losses to OU are on his watch - that’s gotta be tough to spin. You’re really listing Chizik while he was at Iowa State? That’s more weak sauce. Then you top off the big bowl of wrong by citing a single victory by Mack over his analogue Lloyd Carr - who washed out because he just could not beat his biggest rival. Was the irony intentional?

Furthermore, which one of those coaches - besides Chizik at Iowa State - has imploded and gone 5 - 7? I don’t think even Lloyd Carr has that type of epic fail on his resume.

Scipio,

I think what happens often times we people throw these lists together they overweight what they think they have a pretty good handle on and really don’t accurately gauge what they amiss from afar.

Consider that that many people outside of Texas evaluate the Horns 2011 season I would bet almost none of them accurately consider the impact on the offense of what took place at the quarterback position with Gilbert getting most of the snaps in the spring, Wood transferring, Gilbert getting hurt/benched, the utilization of the combo quarterbacks, the behind the scenes issues at quarterback, and then the lack of time during the season to truly work with Ash on the basics of playing quarterback in college. Instead they look and see Texas kinda sucked at quarterback last year.

I would guess the same is the situation at running back and wide receiver.

The only factor that I believe biased the voting was the fact that Texas’ most impressive games to me were played in losing efforts and not wins. I think the Oklahoma State game and the KSU game were the Horns two best games when you factor in the opponents. Cowboys were the best game of the year, but I believe people from afar downplay close victories and have a tendency to overplay big losses (i.e. OU and Baylor). Aside for A&M which win for Texas in 2011 really would catch anyone’s attention nationwide?

Cal in the bowl might unless they looked and saw just how bad Cal was last year.

So, from afar Texas was unimpressive last year, has questions at quarterback, questions at receiver, has a young line, and off the top of my head I would guess they project Texas at the best at 5th in the conference in 2012 presuming WVU is in the conference.

Are they right? Tough question because I think this early we have to project a few things.

First, while it isn’t a hard and fast rule I think to be in the Top 10 unless you start there you really can’t have more that 2 losses.

If Texas drops an out of conference game there are problems as Wyoming, New Mexico, and @ Ole Miss isn’t exactly the gauntlet. Horns enter conference play 3-0. We don’t know the schedule yet, but if the only thing that happens is TCU gets dropped into A&M’s slot that leaves Texas with road games to Stillwater and Manhattan plus OU in Dallas. Who knows about WVU so the question is does Texas win at least 1 of those 3 games away from Austin?

Second, the defense should be the best in the Big XII. Only questions in the line are depth at end and there is no way to project for injuries and say Kendall Thompson grows to the point he is playing with a hand on the ground. Secondary is among the country’s best especially is Phillips can slide back to safety and that leaves the only questions at linebacker. There is talent there, but talent without experience doesn’t always translate to production and it will be interesting to especially watch the development of Edmond and Cobbs. If nothing catastrophic happens you have to think that Texas has more than enough defense to be in every game.

Third, here is the tricky part the offense. Strength no doubt are the running backs. I think a healthy Brown can provide what Ced provided and I am interested in how the snaps get divided among Gray and Joe.

So where are the issues in 2012?

Most of the conference will now have film on Harsin offense and while that won’t tell them everything I do think it will remove a bit of the smoke and mirror effect he was able to get away with in 2011.

Texas used some formations to move the defenses, but do those defenses adjust if Ash and the offense can’t possible a viable threat against them?

I am still not sold on Ash for 2012, not that he isn’t their best option on the team, but that he will be ready to win a game if he must. I think some got a little intoxicated off the bowl victory and forgot that UT only had a little over 250 yards of total offense.

For me the key is the offense line and specifically Hawkins. I truly believe he is the biggest offensive recruit for 2012. If he can take over the right tackle we have all talked about the domino effect of sliding Hopkins inside. If he doesn’t however then what is Plan B? Additionally there is a great deal of hope being placed on Cochran and Espinosa getting a great deal stronger over the year. They should, but bodies mature at their own pace and unfortunately it is possible they aren’t quite there yet. Result is a line better than last year and headed in the right direction, but the question is will the line be able to physically dominate a good defensive front?

Wide receiver has one known in Shipley. Who knows about the future of Mike Davis. Who knows is John Harris or Miles are ready to play that outside position? Goodwin looked the best he has ever looked in the Bowl in terms of game awareness, but if he is going to try to make the Olympic team he needs to focus on the long jump this Spring and if he makes the team in June I can’t see him spending much time running routes and lifting the way he needs to lift for football at all this summer. If we scratch him and Mike Davis doesn’t come around you have Jaxon’s 40 catches and then the rest of the returning receivers have 8 total catches for 74 yards.

Jones is a great looking prospect as well as Marcus Johnson, but can you count on true freshmen receivers pairing up seamlessly with a maturing young quarterback who has struggled with accuracy at times? There is the option of moving DJ to receiver, but he really hasn’t shown the feel for the passing game, running routes, and you might be better off running the hook and ladder 3-4 times a game with him.

The immediate answer to questions at receiver would be pull a page from the Alabama and New England playbook and use multiple tight ends which works really well if you have at least two guys who can catch and block. Dead horse so I will go to the final offensive question.

What is Ash’s ceiling and how quickly can he reach it? I believe that Harsin still has questions about the quarterback position. If he didn’t why in the world even call a JUCO like Bo Wallace?

Easy answer is they were afraid of losing Case and depth issues, but why Wallace? Why a kid who is looking to start?

I am not saying doesn’t like Ash’s potential or Brewer, but that Wallace was a hedge in case there wasn’t marked improvement. Texas doesn’t win 10 games next year unless someone at the quarterback position doesn’t pose a viable, consistent threat to get the ball down the field and I mean better than what we saw in bowl game.

Improvement is possible, hell, I think that with just the defense the team easily wins 8 to 9, but to get to 10 they have to be able to score a few points.

Alabama might have been run heavy last year, but when they needed to they did punish people for cheating up against their offense. There are enough questions in the Texas offense to draw a reasonable conclusion the line won’t quite be ready to physically dominate every defensive front and the questions at wide receiver and quarterback are enough to cost the Horns away from Austin.

Okay, I will let people have fun tear that apart. Later.

You listed 2 coaches…one Brown has never coached against and the other who he is .500 against, with a big * in the loss. I tried to expand the sample size to other “great coaches” by including head-to-head with all of the other coaches who have won MNC. Sorry those results don’t fit your agenda.

Regarding Stoops, yeah, the overall record of 8-5 is poor, but I’m going to give credit that at some point progress was made and the 4-3 (call it 3-3 post VY) is more relevant to Mack Brown now than the overall record.

Is Chizik a stretch? Sure but he fits the requirement. To a lesser extent so is Miles (though he managed to beat Stoops with one of the same teams). But the others brought arguably equal talent to the field. Michigan was a BCS team and ranked #12 at the time of that game.

So excluding Chizik and Miles, and Texas with Brown and his MBOC is 10-10 against the rest of the field of MNC coaches. I haven’t looked up every game, but from a quick glance, it appears that Saban has roughly the same winning % against Carr, Chizik, Miles, Meyer and Stoops.

“Furthermore, which one of those coaches – besides Chizik at Iowa State – has imploded and gone 5 – 7? I don’t think even Lloyd Carr has that type of epic fail on his resume.”

The great Nick Saban has a 6-5-1 season and two 6-6 seasons on his resume.

But, that is beside the point, which of course was:

“There is an opportunity cost to having Mack as the head coach as opposed to the consistent big-time winners like Saban, Urban Meyer (I think he’s washed up now, but he had a great run), Les Miles and even Bob Stoops. There is absolutely no question in my mind that we are at a profound disadvantage when the Horns face a team with a HC like that on the other sideline.”

Saban versus Carr while he was at Michigan State is a whole world different than Saban at LSU and Alabama, who are UT level schools in terms of resources. If you are giving Mack credit for progress against Stoops post-VY, doesn’t he also get demerits for coming full circle to the early 2000’s and getting blown out again this year? Where does the 5 - 7 collapse last year fit into your assessment as far as relevance? That is a pretty recent datapoint, no?

5-7 was bad, no doubt. In terms of a 13 year career, one bad year doesn’t even come close to supporting:

“we are at a profound disadvantage when the Horns face a team with a HC like that on the other sideline”.

And as I’ve said, the head to heads against those guys don’t support it either. Neither does back to back 1 loss seasons.

Every year there are another handful of great coaches that a portion of our fanbase claims is far superior to Mack Brown. For awhile it was Caroll and Tressel. Mack beat both. Now it is Saban and Meyer. If Colt isn’t injured and Texas isn’t screwed by the BCS, I’m fairly confident Texas wins one or both of those (hypothetical) games against those two. I sure as hell don’t think we’d lose because of a “profound disadvantage”.

Horncasting,

60-year old Saban has won three MNCs in his last seven years as a college HC.

60-year old Mack has won two conference titles, ever, in 28 years of being a college HC. That was VY’s last year and Colt’s last year.

I’ll be impressed if even one out of ten college fans (including you) know the names of those Saban’s three QBs he won the MNCs with. That’s coaching pal. Winning with VY, Colt, Tebow, Cam—-big deal.

The biggest issue of the alleged MBOC is the apparent inability to psych the boys up for those games where they NEED to come onto the field with blood in their eyes and hate in their hearts… and not just the desire, but the absolute conviction, that they’re going to kick the living shit out of those sorry bastards in the other uniforms… and then proceed to do just that. There’s a difference between the desire to HURT someone and the desire to INJURE them… both cause PAIN, and that’s what we want to do, but without (intentionally) causing any physical disability.

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts then we’d all have a Merry Christmas, now wouldn’t we? You may be able to spin some on the margins with that ifs and buts business, but it’s just goddamned hard to get around three historic blowouts to our biggest rival to punctuate a 5 - 8 record against Stooops while said rival racks up more than half of the championships in the conference’s history, 5 - 7 last year and a whopping 2 conference championships in a 28 year career. Great coaches just don’t implode and go 5 - 7 in a down year. Stoops had his shit sandwich year in 2009 where the whole goddamned team was basically laid up and he managed to go 8 - 5. Stoops won conference titles with fucking Paul Thompson at quarterback!

“I’ll be impressed if even one out of ten college fans (including you) know the names of those Saban’s three QBs he won the MNCs with. That’s coaching pal.”

I’ll bet you’d be surprised to know that his LSU team had 3 QB’s who were drafted, including the starter in the MNC game. He also had an NFL RB.

You’d probably also be surprised to know that his starting QB in his first MNC at Bama was also drafted and is still in the NFL. 2 NFL quality RB’s on that team as well.

The most recent was a 4 star QB, ranked as the 7th best QB in the country his senior year. Oh, yeah, and a RB who will be drafted

So in his 3 MNC’s his starting QB’s consisted of 2 guys drafted in the NFL and a 4 star . That’s talent, pal.

“The biggest issue of the alleged MBOC is the apparent inability to psych the boys up for those games where they NEED to come onto the field with blood in their eyes and hate in their hearts…”

I wholeheartedly agree that this fire has been missing in quite a few games over the years. But the flip side to this is that no one can touch Mack Brown’s history of huge come from behind wins. You also have to give him credit for his uncanny ability to handle a kicker when everything is on the line. Seriously, think of all of the huge game winning FG’s made in the last 13 years. Can you remember even a single one at the end of a game that didn’t go through?