Latest DraftExpress 2012 Mock Draft

by jc25 on Feb 21, 2026 11:37 AM CST

DraftExpress has posted its latest 2012 Mock Draft. Jonathan Givony and company expect Myck Kabongo to stay, but J'Covan Brown to declare and get drafted in the 2nd round. Kabongo is currently ranked 31st overall in DX's Top 100 prospects list, and Brown is 61st. Similarly, ESPN Chad Ford's latest update has Kabongo at 29, and Brown at 74.

Keep in mind that Kabongo could likely improve his draft stock with an outstanding sophomore season (DX has him 5th in the 2013 Mock Draft), whereas Brown has likely maxed out his draft stock. In addition, Brown is a fourth-year junior thanks to being academically ineligible his first year. If Brown were to return, he could put together a Big 12 Player of the Year type season similar to Kansas State's Jacob Pullen and still not improve his draft stock.

Just food for thought as we wind down the 2011-12 basketball season.

Tweet Comment 25 comments | Add comment | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Read More: Jacob Pullen (G - Kansas St.), J`Covan Brown (G - Texas), Myck Kabongo (G - Texas), Texas Longhorns

Comments

Thanks for posting.

I won’t shoot the messenger.

Follow @BarkingCarnival

by Sailor Ripley on Feb 21, 2026 1:42 PM CST reply actions

My wish

if we have to lose one of them I would rather lose Brown and keep Kabongo. I think I’m less high on Brown than most everyone else.

by Nickel Rover on Feb 21, 2026 3:48 PM CST reply actions

Oh you're high alright

76-37-5. Now GTFO.

by Peter Bean on Feb 22, 2026 9:03 AM CST up reply actions

I'd rather lose Kabongo

We look lost when Brown isn’t on the court. We’ve played some of our best stretches this year with Kabongo on the bench and Brown at the point

by jdwall12 on Feb 27, 2026 10:31 AM CST up reply actions

If winning next year is the only criteria, I would take Brown

by The General on Feb 22, 2026 1:46 PM CST reply actions

If Brown stays

He could lead us to the championship and become a longhorn legend. That could lead to a better future than a quick entry to the NBA.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Feb 22, 2026 3:06 PM CST reply actions

Tap the brakes.

Follow @BarkingCarnival

by Sailor Ripley on Feb 22, 2026 10:02 PM CST up reply actions

Greater upside

I said ‘could’, meaning that a big senior year could get his jersey retired and that would have more long term economic benefits than another year of NBA money. As a returning senior, he’s promoted as the star of a contending team, which is bound to increase the value of his brand. An enthusiastic Longhorn fan base will also increase his market value.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Feb 24, 2026 9:16 AM CST up reply actions

I agree with the championship statement

Simply because we are adding so much size next year. Our guards will be good, and we bring in some much needed size down low. Holmes and Bond at 6’7 won’t have to guard centers. We will be a much deeper team as well. And from what we’ve seen from McClellan and Lewis, they are reliable scoring options. Barring having to start all over with a freshman point guard, we should be a very good

by jdwall12 on Feb 27, 2026 10:35 AM CST up reply actions

Brown

I understand how he carries the burden of the offense but I’m suspicious that the best way to handle that is by shooting 41% from the field and taking 16 shots per game.
The fact that we rank 16th in Ken Pom’s offensive rankings suggests to me that there may be better options available to us than some of Brown’s frequent heat checks.

by Nickel Rover on Feb 23, 2026 10:28 AM CST up reply actions

Brown's offensive efficiency rating is 115.4

And up until Monday, J’Covan ranked 8th in KenPom’s POY rankings (he sits just outside the Top 10 now). The advanced stats do not support your thesis, I’m afraid.

Moreover, that Brown sometimes fires a heat check and could use some better shot selection doesn’t tell us much about his overall value. Particularly when the reason for taking a lot of those is the fact that he’s playing with a bunch of freshmen and forwards who can’t create their own shot.

76-37-5. Now GTFO.

by Peter Bean on Feb 23, 2026 10:45 AM CST up reply actions

By the way

For comparison, Kevin Durant’s offensive efficiency rating was 116.5. Just so the context is clear.

76-37-5. Now GTFO.

by Peter Bean on Feb 23, 2026 10:47 AM CST up reply actions

Love J'CB

I love it when he fires snap, no look passes off his teammates’ chests. That’s cray.

Follow @BarkingCarnival

by Sailor Ripley on Feb 23, 2026 11:29 AM CST up reply actions

That is shocking

he’s shooting 41% from the field and 39% behind the arc. He’s a great FT shooter but he isn’t taking gobs of them.
How is Ken Pom’s efficiency rating measured?
By the simplest metrics it would not seem that Brown is a very efficient scorer.

by Nickel Rover on Feb 23, 2026 12:21 PM CST up reply actions

It's a complicated formula

But it takes in to account all of the different ways a player can contribute to scored points, from a made shot to an assist to an offensive rebound. Solid primer here.

76-37-5. Now GTFO.

by Peter Bean on Feb 23, 2026 1:15 PM CST up reply actions

I note

that the values of assists are determined by a presumption on the part of this “dean”. Berri’s WP numbers are determined by regression analysis and I would be curious to see how Brown scores there considering how he misses so many shots and doesn’t rebound at a particularly impressive clip.
Sadly the formula is too complicated for me to attempt on my own.

by Nickel Rover on Feb 23, 2026 2:03 PM CST up reply actions

Brown's O-Rtg

Keep in mind: high usage combined with good assist rate and low turnover rate. Basically, the decisions he makes when not shooting are positive contributions to the team. Also, the fact that he drains most of his FTs helps. Kansas St.’s Jacob Pullen achieved high offensive ratings doing something similar.

Also note that by PER, J’Covan doesn’t grade out quite as highly, though he still leads Texas in the statistic.

http://aseaofblue.com | https://www.barkingcarnival.com | @JC_Hoops

by jc25 on Feb 23, 2026 2:57 PM CST up reply actions

PER

is useless. Mathematically configured to award players who shoot a lot. PER isn’t based on anything but Hollinger’s random assignation of value to different box score stats.

Ortg that rewards a player for touching the ball a lot seems flawed. Does regression analysis determine that touching the ball a lot makes you a key part of winning?

by Nickel Rover on Feb 23, 2026 3:16 PM CST up reply actions

Points

I guess the points and assists he produces within the shots and posessions he takes up are well above average for a college guard.

Maybe his 39% 3pt. shooting is far better than I appreciate?

by Nickel Rover on Feb 23, 2026 4:32 PM CST up reply actions

He's a QB

with 400 attempts but only 4 interceptions.

by Scipio Tex on Feb 23, 2026 7:23 PM CST up reply actions

I can appreciate that

but it seems suspicious to me to reward someone for dominating the ball and not constantly wetting the ball while doing so. In some instances it seems likely that such a process would reward someone who may not be terrible with the ball in their hands all the time but who’s team would be far better served if the ball was more evenly distributed.

by Nickel Rover on Feb 24, 2026 8:13 AM CST up reply actions

Not so

First of all, if a player is dominating the ball, he’ll get proportionally more credit or blame for the good things that the offense manages to do. So if the offense isn’t getting it done, that will be reflected in his rating, which won’t be strong.

Moreover, I think you’re underestimating the value of protecting the ball — or the negative value of turnovers, as it were. Possessions are precious, and each one not lost to turnover — or extra one gained by offensive rebound — is literally points on the scoreboard.

In other words, the weight attributed to high usage, low turnovers is appropriate, and to the extent the possessions lead to positive offensive value, the player is justly rewarded.

As a final note, I actually don’t think you’re wrong to suggest that we’re leaving some value on the table with our usage patterns. We’ve used Julien Lewis too much, and Sheldon McClellan too little. But Brown’s “over-usage,” to the extent there is any, is (a) a reflection of necessity, and (b) hardly a concern, given his many contributions (and lack of turnovers).

76-37-5. Now GTFO.

by Peter Bean on Feb 24, 2026 1:43 PM CST up reply actions

thanks for the clarifications

J’Covan’s TO numbers are pretty solid, but his missed shots numbers aren’t. Obviously your numbers conclude that his ownership of the offense results in a pretty efficient whole so perhaps our approach is correct.

I’m suspicious of reasoning though such as “QB throws only x INT in x pass attempts.”

Landry Jones threw a low number of Interceptions to pass attempts last year, but if the high number of passes leads to 2 TO’s via INT per game than what have you proven? That one player seeing high usage, even if he does it more effectively than most could, is likely less efficient than a more dispersed effort.

by Nickel Rover on Feb 24, 2026 2:29 PM CST up reply actions

Should also note

As Peter somewhat did earlier (but not strongly enough, in my opinion), just how ineffective most of our players are with the ball in their hands. Sheldon and Julien frequently look downright terrified if they aren’t put in a completely advantageous situation.

Barnes’ lack of ability to do that this season (or, it could be easily argued, their lack of ability to do what he tells them to do) leads to the higher usage rates of both Myck and (especially) JCB.

I would rather J’Covan confidently take a bad shot than Sheldon or Julien timidly take a shot within the flow of the offense, just because they are “supposed to take it.” Sure Sheldon sometimes turns on the aggressive meter, which is when Texas actually looks like a bona fide collegiate basketball offense. Lewis just isn’t there yet (or close) with any kind of consistency. None of our bigs can come to play on offense consistently. This confluence of suck makes what JCB’s doing all the more impressive, to me.

Follow me on Twitter @GoHornsGo90

by GoHornsGo90 on Feb 26, 2026 2:59 PM CST up reply actions

Any of you guys still following this?

I feel that the offensive rating method proposed by Oliver (which is used on kenpom.com) is on pretty solid ground. But by all means read into it, and decide for yourself. If you really care, read Dean Oliver’s book; one of the appendices goes through all of the math.

As for a comparison with Berri’s approach, I am somewhat biased against using multiple regression in situations where it doesn’t seem needed, and more direct routes of analysis are possible. There is some old cliché here about hammers and nails.

In J’Covan’s case, his value isn’t from high usage per say, but high usage with very few turnovers. He has a very low turnover rate. Poor shots are better than turnovers by a pretty substantial amount. Some poor shots go in, and then there is a chance for an offensive rebound. Once you factor all of this in, your expected point total on a possession where you take a bad shot is still going to be somewhere around 0.9 points. This is assuming that you have a 35% chance of the bad two point shot falling, and further assuming that you have a 35% chance (as Texas does) of getting the offensive rebound if you miss. I am assuming that an offensive rebound is worth about a point, which is probably underestimating its value, if anything. So anyway, taking a bad shot gives you an expectation of about 0.9 points in that possession, and a turnover ends the possession with 0 points.

J’Covan also has a decent eFG% (just a hair under 50%, from all the three point shots) and a solid true shooting percentage (0.549). These are very decent percentages.

I think you should give credit for volume of shots as well. Not every possession is going to end with a great shot, and as a team someone needs to be taking these bad shots. This is why it is hard to be so efficient when you take such a high percentage of your team’s shots.

I am on Twitter @jeffchaley
Burnt Orange Nation
Hoop-Math

by Reggieball on Feb 29, 2026 6:56 PM CST reply actions